WASH. offense: (#13) – (149R-196P) vs. Kansas City defense: (#5) – (106R-175P)
Kansas City offense: (#5) – (123R-247P) vs. WASH. defense: (#27) – (126R-238P)
VEGAS ODDS: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-11 ½) ~ TOTAL: (48)
TEAM TOTALS: WASHINGTON (18 ½) ~ KC CHIEFS (30 ½)
MNF MATCHUP OF ONE TEAMS STOCK SOARING & OTHER CRASHING!
Before the season started this game looked like one of the most exciting Monday Night Football games on the schedule. Now it’s looking more like Mismatch City as the Commanders are (1-3) last 4 and the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) last 5. One defense (KC) is coming off one of the greatest performances I’ve ever seen and the other (Wash.) can’t seem to stop the kids in the neighborhood.
To add to the prime time spotlight losing some lustre the Commanders star young QB Daniels will miss this game. Being a lifelong Commanders fan the second his team blew an almost lock win 2 weeks ago over the Bears before a terrible missed handoff and fumble that turned into a miracle comeback win for the Bears I sensed the same thing I sensed for the Bears last year when they had the win all but sealed until allowing a miracle “Hail Mary” pass that deflated the team to lose 9 straight games after that loss. Well the loss streak is only 2 right now but I am fearful that it will be 5 after the next 3 games as they face 3 loaded offenses.
CHIEFS offense NOW BACK AT FULL STRENGTH TOUGH TO STOP!
Since speedy WR Worthy returned the offense has soared to (#3) in points scored (31 ½) and (#1) in point per drive, total yards per game (412) and the OL pressure rate allowed to just (22.6%) leading superstar QB Mahomes to a (71%) pass completion rate and (283) passing yards per game and (11 TD’s-1 interception). Add in they returned stud WR Rice back 2 weeks ago from his 6 game suspension and you can see this offense is now clicking on all cylinders and looking like the same blueprint of the Chiefs Super Bowl teams. There are simply too many stars to cover and this will be the flailing Commanders defense toughest test thus far this season.
CAN THE COMMANDERS DEFENSE STOP THIS CHIEFS LOADED “O”?
Nobody can predict injuries but when you come into a season with the oldest roster in the league you should expect that injuries may hit you more than most younger rosters. For the Commanders the ages of the players who have gone down already isn’t just older players but also some young ones too. They lost solid off season pickup DE Wise early on and now the next 2 best defensive line starters are hurt (DE Armstrong – sacks and pressures leader is out) and beast run stuffer DT Payne (likely to miss this game with bad toe) from a defense already dead last in the NFL allowing (7.8) yards per pass attempt.
The Commanders simply can’t cover anyone right now as they’ve allowed an atrocious eight plays of (40) yards or more. I have pulled my hair out watching them be totally out of position and getting burned for big gainers but too many times committing pass interference penalties on pass plays over 15 yards.
WASHINGTON MUST GET THE RUN GAME GOING AGAIN AT ELITE LEVEL!
The Commanders seemed to have found a hidden gem at running back with 7th round pick Croskey-Merritt having some huge games and providing a big spark to their offense. But the past 2 games (both losses) he’s been held in check to just (3.1) yards per rush. If he fails to rush for at least 70 yards here I can’t fathom how they can pull the huge upset. The Commanders run game still leads the league with (5.4) yards per carry and they have been sensational in the red zone (78%) this season.
THE DROPOFF FROM DANIELS TO MARIOTTA ISN’T WHAT YOU’D THINK!
We all know how great young Commanders QB Daniels has been since he was drafted last season with the second pick but longtime veteran QB Mariota will start here and shockingly there is no real dropoff as he’s led the Commanders to (34) points per game whereas Daniels led offense has only been at (22.4) points per game. Mariota also rushed 10x this season for not too shabby 94 rush yards and he should get a huge boost as #1 and #1A wide outs T. McLaurin and Deebo Samuel return to give him more elite weapons to pass the ball to.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS MONDAY NIGHT AFFAIR:
1). KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Last 4 years at Home = (11 “OVERS – 22 “UNDERS”). 2). KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Just (1-6) ATS last 7 MNF games. 3). WASH. COMMANDERS: (8-0-1) ATS last 9 MNF Road games vs. AFC. 4). KC CHIEFS: Have gone (3 OVERS – 8 UNDERS) on MNF last 11x. 5). NFL FAVORITES OF 6 POINTS OR MORE IN 3RD STRAIGHT HOME GAME: 6 “OVERS” – 0 “UNDERS” – 1 PUSH
FINAL PASS:
Well this is by far the worst matchup possible for the Commanders facing a now clicking on all cylinders Chiefs team that last week held the ball for a stunning (42-18) minutes Time of Possession advantage and an even more dominant (76-29) Total Plays advantage. The Chiefs defense is the most rested defense maybe all time heading to the midway game of the season as they have spent only 90 minutes total on the field the last 4 games combined and overall the Chiefs offense has been on the field (140-100) minutes differential the past 4 weeks as well.
It would be one of the biggest “Upsets” in years for this flatlining Commanders defense (3 turnovers forced all season) and (0) the past 2 games to derail a KC offense that has not lost one fumble the entire season and only 1 Mahomes interception the past 5 games combined and a Chiefs offense that has won 5 straight Time of Possession battles and a Chiefs OL that has allowed Mahomes to be sacked just 5x the past 4 games with a now down 3 likely DL starters and a secondary that simply can’t cover anyone. When the defense is playing badly it puts a ton of extra pressure on the offense to do more and in most cases the only “more” is turning the ball over more. Hence the Commanders have turned the ball over 5x in the last 2 games.
PICK
The only major red flag for the Chiefs is they may be down 2 of their 5 starting offensive linemen but truth be told the backups have more than held their own as they’ve now played meaningful snaps already this season. The Chiefs have too much in their favor right now and with such a rested defense and an offense clicking now at full strength with all their playmakers this is almost a sure KC win. The other red flag is the Chiefs play the Bills next week so a look ahead to that game is very possible knowing Washington comes in reeling and missing so many key starters.
I really never lay double digits in the NFL so I would look to Prop bets. For those who love big paydays you can grab Wash. WR D. Samuel to gain 15 rushing yards or more at (+480). I will be rooting for my boys but fully expect to go to bed in a sad mood. Enjoy the game and have a winning new week ahead.
@GARYGREENEWINS Go to: @GARYWINS for all his NFL stats pages Free!
BRONCOS LOOK TO MAKE IT 7 STRAIGHT WINS OVER HAPLESS VEGAS!
It’s not a pretty matchup for a Prime Time TV game this week as we have one team that has lost 6 of its last 7 games and the other team red-hot on a 6 game winning streak. One team looks like a serious Super Bowl contender and the other is looking at picking in the top 3 in next year’s Draft.
The Raiders Offense is as bad as it gets and now they play their first game since trading their best WR (J.Meyers). It’s clearly not been the season Raiders fans hoped for when bringing in long-time winning HC Pete Carroll.
THE DENVER DEFENSE ARE MAKING HISTORY IN SACK DEPARTMENT!
The Broncos as a team through 9 games are (+31) in Sacks Differential and that is the biggest number through 9 games in NFL History. The Defense is easily (#1) with (40) Sacks thus far and the Offense has allowed QB Bo Nix to be sacked only (9x) which also leads the league.
The strange part about the Broncos’ mega impressive (40) sacks is it hasn’t led them to more turnovers forced, as they have only 3 turnovers forced during this 6 game win streak (all 3 interceptions with a bagel grabbing a fumble recovery).
Meanwhile, Vegas is second worst in the league in pressure rate, and their top Pass Rusher Maxx Crosby is at his lowest pressure rate of his career. The lack of pressure has led the Black and Silver Defense to only (3) interceptions the past 7 games. Six of their 16 sacks this season came in one game vs. the worst OL/Offense in the NFL (Titans). They have 1 sack or no sacks in 5 of their last 6 games.
THE ROAD HAS NOT BEEN KIND TO THE 2025 RAIDERS LAST 3 ROADIES!
Vegas has lost its last 3 Road games by 17, 34 and 31 points. Their last Road game is one of the worst all-time games ever played by any team as they only gained (25) rushing yards and (70) passing yards at Kansas City.
The worst part was the Offense was only on the field for (18) minutes as they got shutout (31-0). Overall, the Raiders are the 3rd worst scoring team in the league, so they almost always need the best game possible from the Defensive side of the ball to have any chance to win.
DENVER IS #3 RUSHING THE BALL & RAIDERS ARE THIRD WORST!
If you can’t run the ball, the opposing Defense can send extra pass rushers having no fear you can beat them in that department, and that has led Vegas QB Geno Smith to throw (11) Interceptions (most in the NFL).
Now he must face the best Pass Rush Defense in the league, so it will take a heroic effort by Smith tonight to pull off a huge road Upset.
Denver runs the ball for a very impressive (134) yards per game, keeping QB Nix in a great spot and rarely pressured thanks to a Top 3 Offensive Line that has allowed Nix to be sacked a league-low (9x).
Nix has been sacked only twice the past 3 games, and the other 6 games he’s been sacked only once or zero times. Nix has thrown only (6) interceptions so far all season.
Again, two teams on total opposite ends of the spectrum in the most important categories.
COULD “TIRED LEGS” FINALLY CATCH UP TO THE BRONCOS TONITE?
The schedule makers weren’t overly kind to the Broncos as they will be playing a 10th straight game without a “Bye” week thus far and, of course, now playing this 10th game on a short week.
What makes this worse is the past two weeks the Broncos Defense has been on the field a much too high (69) total minutes, so I’d be a little extra worried that the Defense could be a bit tired here and also without its top Defensive player CB Patrick Surtain, that leaves them a little shorthanded.
The good news would be the Raiders Defense could also be facing the “Tired Legs” syndrome as they have been on the field a staggering (85) minutes the past 2 games and now travel to the hardest place they will play all season in the high altitude of Denver.
The whole world is screaming bet the “UNDER” but over my 36 year betting career I’ve learned you must always be wary with the “Tired Legs” stat.
TOP TRENDS TO WATCH FOR THIS GAME:
1). DENVER BRONCOS: (8-2) ATS last 10 games as a Home Favorite. 2). VEGAS RAIDERS: (1-4) ATS last 5 games vs. winning teams. 3). DENVER-VEGAS COMBINED THIS YEAR: (6 “OVERS” – 11 “UNDERS”).
TOP FANTASY PROP BETS TO WATCH IN THIS PRIME TV MATCHUP:
1). VEGAS TIGHT END BROCK BOWERS: TOTAL CATCHES: (7 or more) = (+$103)
Note: Last week Bowers had (12) catches for (127) yards and (3) TD’s. It was his first game back after missing (3) games with a knee injury. Clearly his knee is fine now and what a gigantic difference he makes to the lineup as the Raiders average (126) total yards per game more with Bowers in the lineup.
Last week vs. Man to Man coverage Bowers scored 3 TD’s on just (4) targets. When he faced zone coverage he crushed the Jaguars there too with 8 catches in just 9 targets and (81) receiving yards.
Denver will be forced to use their LB’s to cover Bowers with stud CB Surtain (he played Bowers last year in both matchups) out for this contest.
BOWERS TO SCORE A TD: YES (+165) Note: With top WR Meyers now gone, the #1 target for Raiders QB Smith will be Bowers, and he likely will get force fed the ball inside the 10 yard line.
2). DENVER BRONCOS QB BO NIX: TOTAL YARDS RUSHING: (20 ½) Note: Nix has rushed for over 20 ½ yards 5 of his last 7 games.
GARY’S FINAL PASS/PREDICTION PREVIEW OF THIS GAME:
So far this season we have seen more teams win by 11 points or more than we’ve seen teams win by 1-7 points. The Vegas Betting Line is (-9) and would look on paper and also the way both come into this game like another blowout win this year over any type of close game decided by a TD or less.
I understand the Raiders going for 2 points to win in Overtime last week as a Tie did them no good. It’s a huge carry-over lift when you go for 2 and make it and win the game. It’s a huge letdown when you miss and now you know your Playoff chances are toast.
It’s hard to gauge this Broncos team as they sputter along for 3 quarters every week before becoming The Hulk and scoring a league best (96) fourth quarter points (overall 43% of all their scoring this season). Broncos QB Nix has (7) TD’s and only (1) interception and a rock solid (105.3) QB Rating in the fourth quarter.
The huge hope for Raiders fans is one of the few things they do excel at is holding opponents down in the scoring department in the 4th quarter. So far they’ve allowed only (46) fourth quarter points (3rd fewest) and must be dominant here tonight to slow the Broncos Late Game MAGIC.
Denver swept the Raiders last season winning by double digits both games (16 and 10 point wins). Denver sits atop the AFC West in first place for the first time in 11 years this far into a season. They have a 2 game lead on KC and to me are the most underrated team outside Seattle in the league.
They don’t have many superstars but the overall roster talent is loaded. The Raiders overall roster is garbage and this team is 10 good draft picks from sniffing being a contender.
The Raiders drafted stud RB A. Jeanty but so far he’s made no difference at all to the running game. The Broncos Defense is (#2) allowing the fewest yards after contact (0.6 yards) so they simply do Not allow any big rushing plays to occur.
The Raiders were expecting tons of Jeanty carries to be big gainers as he is tough to bring down and gets huge yards after first contact. It’s hard to side with any struggling team as you will go broke doing that and I’ve seen nothing of this Raiders team to warrant a bet with my money.
I normally would side with Denver in this spot as the high altitude is always a huge factor in the 4th quarter (when their Magic seems to happen as well this season), but this is their 10th game with no “Bye” and their Defense has been on the field way too much for my liking the past 2 games and now a short week won’t help their tired legs one bit. Hence the huge advantage is lost this time around.
I will PASS this game and leave it to the folks who MUST bet every game and see if this Broncos team can actually light the fire before the fourth quarter arrives, as they won’t play many worse Defenses the rest of this season.
Enjoy the game and please Never bet what you can’t afford to lose. It’s ok to pass betting on national TV games and wait to place bets where your wager actually has solid value on your side.
Note: You can get all Gary’s Football Betting Magazine stats at GARYWINS.COM — they have everything you need to handicap the NFL card and save you hours of research.
The SEC is the premier conference in college football. Each week, there are enough games that people may not know what to watch. So, I have ranked and broken the games down. The way that my ranking system will work is based on the way my roommate and I watch games on any given Saturday. We have 3 TVs that share one audio output, and they all vary in size. If it is a must watch game then it’s TV1 material, a step down from that will be TV 2 still a good game we want to pay attention to just doesn’t have enough appeal to be on TV one, lastly we have TV 3 this game falls into one of two categories a close game that doesn’t have the same brand value as TV1 or 2 or someone has a bet on the game. So, let’s get you ready for week 11 in the SEC.
Breakdown: UPSET ALERT. Georgia travels to Starkville this week to visit a team that has been very stingy at home, taking Tennessee and Texas to overtime and beating Arizona State. State has also been very proficient in their passing offense in those games, highlighted by wide receiver Brennan Thompson and former Georgia receiver Anthony Evans. Georgia has struggled with busted coverages on the back end of their defense and has had some more injuries pile up in Jacksonville. I don’t have it in me to call the outright upset, but it will be a dawg fight in Starkville. Give me Georgia.
Prediction: Georgia
Auburn @ #16 Vanderbilt
Time: 4:00
Where to Watch: SEC Network
Breakdown: The theme with the two games I put on TV 1 this week is the upset. Auburn has undergone a change in leadership this week, which can at times provide a spark for a talented team that hasn’t lived up to its potential. They are also one of three teams in the country to not allow more than 24 points in a game this season. The Vanderbilt offense hasn’t always been great this year. Vanderbilt has had one of their best seasons to date, but I think ultimately the Tigers will end up killing their playoff hopes in Nashville.
Prediction: Auburn
TV 2 Games
#3 Texas A&M @ #22 Missouri
Time: 4:00
Where to Watch: ABC
Breakdown: It’s never easy to go on the road in the SEC, especially when you are the number 3 team in the country. What makes it easier to go on the road in the SEC is when the team you’re facing has lost its starting Quarterback for the season. The only way A&M loses this game is if they are checked out mentally. Nothing screams upset here, and without their starting quarterback, Mizzou should provide few problems for the Aggies.
Prediction: Texas A&M
LSU @ #4 Alabama
Time: 7:00
Where to Watch: ABC
Breakdown: I get it, LSU comes off a bye week, an interim coach, and a new flavor of offense, most likely. I just don’t think that matters because Alabama is that much better. For all the people who pointed out the inconsistencies with Kalen DeBoer last year, they haven’t shown up this year. DeBoer also has yet to lose at home as the Crimson Tide’s head coach. The Tide Rolls on Saturday.
Prediction: Alabama
Florida @ Kentucky
Time: 7:30
Where to Watch: SEC Network
Breakdown: It’s becoming somewhat of a trend for Kentucky to drag a more talented opponent into murky waters and make them grind out a win, especially at home. Florida is once again the better team, but they go on the road for a tough test following a heartbreaking loss in Jacksonville. I’d be lying if I said I knew how they do it, but Florida wins.
Prediction: Florida
TV 3 Game
The Citadel @ Ole Miss
Time: 1:00
Where to Watch: SEC Network+
Breakdown: God bless you if you sit down and spend three hours of your time watching this football game. This is the classic game where only Ole Miss fans (and sometimes not even them) and bettors will be watching. Ole Miss gets a tune-up before the home stretch of the season. Rebels big.
Prime Video Thursday Night Football, NFL on Prime Video, TNF streaming ratings, Amazon NFL broadcast, Al Michaels Kirk Herbstreit TNF, Fred Gaudelli NFL production, TNF live stream, NFL streaming platform, Thursday Night Football schedule, TNF viewership data
The Denver Broncos (7–2) host the Las Vegas Raiders (2–6) on Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025, in a nationally televised clash on Prime Video’s Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver.
The Broncos enter the game riding a six-game win streak, tied for the longest active run in the NFL. They’ve also won nine straight at home, making Denver one of the toughest venues in football this season. With the Chiefs and Chargers close behind in the AFC West, every divisional game matters.
Prime Video Broadcast Team: Legends on the Mic
Calling the action will be Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit, Prime Video’s signature Thursday Night duo. Their chemistry and insight have made TNF a must-watch for fans across the country.
Pregame coverage begins with TNF Tonight, hosted by Charissa Thompson, featuring analysts Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andrew Whitworth, and Richard Sherman. Expect deep dives into Denver’s defensive resurgence and Las Vegas’s quarterback struggles.
Postgame coverage includes TNF Postgame, where the crew breaks down key plays, divisional implications, and standout performances.
Prime Video Game Preview: Broncos Favored, Raiders Reeling
The Broncos are 9.5-point favorites heading into the matchup. Their defense ranks top five in points allowed, while quarterback Russell Wilson has quietly led a balanced offense. Denver’s ability to control tempo and win close games has been key to their success.
The Raiders, meanwhile, are coming off a heartbreaking 30–29 overtime loss to Jacksonville. With four double-digit losses already this season, Las Vegas is struggling to stay competitive against top-tier teams.
Why This Game Matters
This isn’t just another Thursday night game — it’s a divisional litmus test. A win for Denver keeps them in striking distance of the Chiefs and Chargers, while a loss could derail their momentum heading into the second half of the season.
For Las Vegas, it’s a chance to salvage pride and disrupt the playoff race. For fans, it’s a showcase of elite broadcasting, high-stakes football, and the kind of drama only the AFC West can deliver.
Tune in Thursday night — because in Denver, November football means everything.
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