Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 11.2.26

Good Monday morning.

Breaking late Sunday afternoon — “Florida State fires Mike Norvell one day after Clemson loss” via Matt Baker of The Athletic — Florida State fired football coach Norvell Sunday following a 36-24 home loss to Clemson that dropped the Seminoles to 3-5. The dismissal ends a turbulent 41-39 tenure and triggers an approximately $50 million buyout, the third largest in college football history. Offensive analyst Rick Stockstill will serve as interim coach while FSU conducts a national search. Norvell led the Seminoles to a 13-0 regular season in 2023 before a stunning collapse, including a 2-10 campaign in 2024 and a 5-7 finish in 2025. President Richard McCullough acknowledged fans’ expectations. The firing comes amid major stadium investments, financial pressures, and uncertainty over FSU’s future conference affiliation.

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Here are some of the columns and stories I am reading the day before the election.

— A record for attention. Gallup finds 56% of U.S. adults have given “quite a lot” of thought to the election — the highest reading so far in a Midterm. The prior highs were 2018, 2010, and 1994, and each produced large seat swings. Fifty-six percent of registered voters are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, second only to 2018. Democrats lead on enthusiasm (58% to 48%) and on plans to vote early (54% to 38%). Among adults 65 and older, 73% have thought a lot about the election; among those under 30, 32%. Read Jeffrey Jones at Gallup.

— Nobody deserves re-election. Gallup’s final pre-Midterm poll puts support for re-electing one’s own House member at 43%, the first time it has fallen under half in readings dating to 1994. Fifteen percent would re-elect most of Congress. Congressional approval is 14%, the lowest pre-Midterm mark since 1974. Republicans are more likely to keep their own members (51%) than Democrats (45%) or independents (36%). In all nine Midterms with congressional approval under 30%, the President’s party lost House seats, and the size of the loss tracked the size of the majority it held going in. Read Megan Brenan’s analysis at Gallup.

— 2006 and 2018, side by side. Bruce Mehlman compares 2026 with the last two Midterms under a Republican President. Like 2006, it has an unpopular war (69% say Iran was not worth it) and a President at 38% approval. Gas is up 41% from a year ago. Consumer confidence is 91.7, against 105.4 in 2006 and 137.9 in 2018. The House battlefield: 42 competitive GOP seats, against 55 and 75. The Democratic Party is 11 points underwater on net favorability (+14 in 2006, -8 in 2018), and only two Democratic Senate seats are up in states the President carried, down from 10 in 2018. Democrats need three House seats and four Senate seats. See the full chart in Bruce Mehlman’s Six-Chart Sunday.

— Cook on the unicorn election. Charlie Cook writes that this year’s decisive voters are typically reliable rural Republicans, not independents or suburban swing voters, and that they are angry over the Iran attack, tariffs, and immigration enforcement. President Donald Trump‘s approval among Republicans is about 80%, down from 86% in January, and Cook calls it unenthusiastic. Those voters could vote Republican, stay home, leave races blank, or defect, and pollsters can’t tell which. Cook’s post-election questions are whether the Democratic House majority reaches 235 seats and whether Democrats get a five-seat Senate majority that doesn’t depend on John Fetterman. He warns Democrats off the generic ballot because the deciding districts are redder than the country, and calls the result less a blue wave than a red undertow. Read Charlie Cook’s column.

— 52 Democratic Senate seats, if the polls hold. Patrick Ruffini lined up polling averages, four models, and two prediction markets for the Senate battlegrounds. Democrats lead every average and every model in nine races, which, with 34 seats not up and nine safe seats, gets them to 52. The path runs through two states the President carried by 10 or more, most likely Alaska and Texas. A Midwest polling miss like 2016 would hit Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas, the states that decide control. His early-vote tracker shows a much bluer electorate than in 2024, in line with 2018. Florida is the last row: Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon by about six points in every average, and Kalshi and Polymarket price her at 90%. Read Patrick Ruffini at The Intersection.

— Which way the polls could be wrong. G. Elliott Morris charted every source of polling error he tested this cycle. Pointing to polls that flatter Democrats: too few of the President’s rural voters, discouraged Republicans skipping surveys, undecideds coming home, and low-effort respondents who lean Republican. Pointing the other way: voters who no longer admit backing the President in 2024, party weights frozen at 2024 levels, and undecideds breaking against the party in power. Most of the effects are a point or less. The typical final miss in Senate averages is about three points. Polls underestimated Republicans in 2016, 2020, and 2024 and Democrats in 2022, Virginia, and New Jersey. Morris offers no prediction on direction. See the chart at Strength In Numbers.

— Florida closes first. Bruce Mehlman sorted Tuesday’s House and Senate races by poll-closing time into four outcomes: red riptide, blue tide (Democrats win 218 to 229 House seats), blue wave (230 to 239), and blue tsunami (240 or more). Florida’s 7 p.m. close makes it the first test. House: Kathy Castor, Jared Moskowitz, and the open seat in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District are a tide; Darren Soto and the open CD 7 seat are a wave; Republicans sweeping the four redrawn seats is a riptide. Senate: Moody by 10 or more is a riptide, four to nine a tide, three or less a wave. Also on his list: the Senate race uncalled at 9 p.m. is a good Democratic night; the Governor’s race uncalled at 10 p.m. is a very good one. See both charts in Bruce Mehlman’s Six-Chart Sunday.

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Democratic strategist Steve Schale says Republicans ended early voting with an edge of about 130,000 ballots, just under 3 points, among the nearly 5.4 million who have voted.

In a Sunday Substack post, the Democratic strategist wrote that Democratic turnout is approaching 49%, Republican turnout is 38%, and NPA voters make up 22% of the electorate so far.

For two years, Schale has said a Democrat can win statewide only if Democratic turnout exceeds Republican turnout, NPA voters favor Democrats by about 20 points, and more Republicans vote Democratic than the reverse. He writes that the first condition is in place and the NPA pool “looks” more Democratic based on where those voters are casting ballots. Whether Republicans cross over will be known only after Tuesday.

Republicans still have about 700,000 more voters who cast ballots in 2020, 2022, and 2024. They won Election Day turnout by about 600,000 in 2022. Schale expects the final Republican edge to exceed 7.5 points. Most polls estimate 12 to 14. Pollster Tom Eldon has said R+9 for a year.

Schale will not predict a result. “It is very much a race,” he concludes.

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St. Pete Polls has former Gov. Charlie Crist ahead of incumbent Ken Welch 55% to 35% in the final survey of the St. Petersburg Mayor’s race, and most of the city has already voted.

Six in 10 likely voters say they have cast a ballot. Crist leads them 59% to 38%. Among the four in 10 still planning to vote, Crist leads 49% to 29%, with 22% undecided.

Asked whom they support, 54% pick Crist and 34% pick Welch, with 12% undecided. Add in leaners and Crist rises to 55%, Welch to 35%, and the undecided pool shrinks to 10%. Give Welch every undecided voter, and he finishes at 45%.

This is the fourth St. Pete Polls survey since the Primary, and Crist has held a majority in all four: 52% in September, 53% on debate day, 54% last week, and 55% now. Welch has gone 27%, 32%, 34%, and 35%.

Both men are Democrats. Crist leads among Democrats 49% to 45%, Republicans 62% to 22%, and independents 58% to 31%. Black voters, who gave Welch a 55% to 16% lead in March, go to Crist 46% to 43%.

Crist wins every age group and leads men 58% to 32% and women 53% to 37%.

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The ads are cut. The slots are bought. The mail is in the box. All that’s left is to celebrate, win or lose, the hard-fought battles that brought us to one of the most consequential Election Days of our generation.

That means we need to hear from you. Where will you watch the results roll in on Election Night? Who will be joining you? Are you welcoming the public, or celebrating in private with friends and family?

Send your info to Peter@FloridaPolitics.com, and best of luck to everyone!

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@Ry_Bass: Nate Silver, who runs one of the more accurate prediction models in the game, has Florida turning blue and electing its first Democratic Governor since 1994.

Tweet, tweet:

—@EWarren: @AngieNixon won her Florida Primary while being outspent 16 to 1. She didn’t soften her message or chase corporate donors. She won by fighting for working people. Now let’s finish the job. Florida, vote early and send Angie to the Senate.

—@TeamsterSOB: Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien here. Just voted in the State of Florida for the first time, and very proud to have cast a ballot for @SenAshleyMoody. Sen. Moody has been extremely helpful working with the Teamsters to protect workers’ pensions, defend good-paying jobs, and support well-funded union apprenticeship programs. The Teamsters look forward to working with Sen. Moody in her role on the Senate HELP Committee to pass the Faster Labor Contracts Act and get this critical legislation signed into law to protect American workers.

Tweet, tweet:

Tweet, tweet:

Tweet, tweet:

—@FLLymeDisease: Steps from @UF campus, two were killed in a shooting this morning. Gainesville’s violent crime rate is more than double the FBI average and rising in H1 2026. GPD sworn officer count is also WAY below the FDLE average. @AGJamesUthmeier, we need state intervention.

Tweet, tweet:

— DAYS UNTIL —

General Election — 1; ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ premieres nationwide — 4; ‘Wild Horse Nine’ premieres — 4; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit — 9; ‘Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol’ starring Johnny Depp premieres — 11; ‘Paper Tiger’ starring Adam Driver premieres — 11; Joe Biden’s memoir, ‘Promise Me, America,’ is released — 15; New legislator training sessions — 15; Senate convenes for organization and selection of officers — 15; ‘Madden’ premieres — 16; ‘I Play Rocky’ premieres — 18; ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ premieres — 18; ‘Blade Runner 2099’ premieres on Prime Video — 23; ‘The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ starring Brad Pitt, directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, premieres in IMAX — 23; Committee Week No. 1 — 28; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ premieres — 46; ‘Dune: Part Three,’ directed by Denis Villeneuve, premieres — 46; ‘Six Kings Slam 2026’ begins — 55; Committee Week No. 2 — 63; Committee Week No. 3 — 70; ‘Ahsoka’ Season 2 premieres — 79; College Football Playoff national championship game in Las Vegas — 84; Committee Week No. 4 — 91; 2027 Florida State Fair begins — 94; ‘Remain,’ directed by M. Night Shyamalan, premieres — 95; Grammy Awards — 97; Committee Week No. 5 — 98; Super Bowl LXI — 104; Committee Week No. 6 — 105; Opening day of the 2027 Regular Legislative Session — 120; Tampa Mayoral Election — 120; ‘The Thomas Crown Affair,’ directed by and starring Michael B. Jordan, premieres — 123; Jacksonville First Election — 127; Academy Awards — 132; Miami Marlins Opening Day/home opener vs. New York Mets — 143; Tampa Bay Rays Opening Day/home opener vs. Baltimore Orioles — 143; Democratic Mayors Association 2027 annual summit in Miami begins — 163; Jacksonville General Election — 197; ‘Star Wars: Starfighter’ premieres — 207; ‘Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 228; Citrus Series: Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins — 256; ‘The Bluey Movie’ premieres — 277; Citrus Series: Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays — 312; 2027 Florida-Georgia game in Tampa — 362; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 410; 2028 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary — 446; College Football Playoff national championship game in New Orleans — 448; 2028 Nevada Presidential Primary — 456; 2028 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary — 463; 2028 New Mexico Democratic Presidential Primary — 470; ‘The Batman Part II’ premieres — 473; 2028 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary — 477; 2028 Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary — 484; Academy Awards — 489; ‘X-Men’ premieres — 550; ‘Miami Vice ’85’ reboot premieres — 564; ‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ premieres — 571; ‘Days of Thunder’ sequel starring Tom Cruise and Anne Hathaway premieres — 578; ‘Incredibles 3’ premieres — 592; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 620; ‘Ghost Rider’ premieres — 634; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 736; ‘Black Panther 3,’ directed by Ryan Coogler, premieres — 774; College Football Playoff national championship game in Tampa — 812; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres — 1,145; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres — 1,873.

— TOP STORY —

“Maria Elvira Salazar’s Donald Trump problem” via Ali Bianco of POLITICO — Republican Congresswoman Salazar, a former Spanish-language television star, built a loyal following among Miami’s Cuban American voters. Now, Trump’s immigration crackdown threatens the coalition that helped deliver her commanding 2024 victory.

Salazar’s signature Dignity Act would offer longtime undocumented immigrants legal status without a path to citizenship, subject to fines and other conditions. She argues the bipartisan proposal would strengthen border security, stabilize the workforce and reassure Latino families. Conservative critics call it amnesty.

The conflict placed Salazar in a two-front battle. MAGA activists accuse her of undermining Trump’s deportation agenda, while Democrats condemn her votes funding immigration enforcement. Her Democratic challenger, former television anchor Eliott Rodriguez, argues she cannot credibly distance herself from policies she supported.

Salazar has warned White House officials that aggressive enforcement could cost Republicans Latino voters. She also released a campaign video telling Trump that Hispanic supporters feel betrayed. The President initially responded mildly before sharing social media attacks targeting her.

The backlash is pronounced in Miami, where immigration arrests have unsettled Cuban, Venezuelan, Colombian and Nicaraguan communities. Yet Republican loyalties remain powerful. An FIU poll found widespread disapproval of enforcement against Cubans alongside substantial continued support for Republican candidates.

Salazar retains fundraising and registration advantages, but her re-election contest exposes tensions inside Florida’s Republican coalition. Even victory would leave unresolved whether her immigration proposal can survive opposition from Trump’s allies and whether the party can hold Latino voters without changing course.

— NAT’L MOOD —

Breaking late Sunday — “Judge rejects Trump officials’ move to challenge Alaska Senate election” via Anna Griffin of The New York Times

“A Midterm crossroads for both parties eyeing the beginning of the end of the Trump era” via Steve Peoples of The Associated Press — Tuesday’s Midterms could reshape both political parties as Trump approaches his final two years in office. Republicans face questions about whether Trump’s working-class coalition can survive without him, particularly if voters deliver significant losses. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio could see their presidential prospects affected, potentially opening opportunities for Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Republicans. Democrats anticipate gains but remain divided between establishment leaders and progressives demanding sweeping change. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries could become Speaker, while the party’s socialist-aligned faction expects greater influence. Whatever Tuesday brings, the battle for political leadership in 2028 begins immediately.

“Final polls show a Democratic surge, but can they be trusted?” via Nate Cohn of The New York Times — Democrats lead in all seven Senate battlegrounds in the final Times/Siena surveys, including traditionally Republican Texas and Kansas. Democratic candidates hold commanding advantages in Michigan and narrower leads in Alaska and Iowa. Trump’s approval ratings have fallen into the mid-30s, creating potentially historic opportunities for Democrats. But polling uncertainty remains substantial. Registered white Democrats were roughly 30% more likely than Republicans to respond to surveys, raising concerns about another polling miss. Revised weighting methods attempt to correct that imbalance, though they cannot eliminate every bias. The results could signal a Democratic wave or another Republican surprise. Election Day will settle the question.

“Republican anxiety mounts in final days before Midterm Elections” via Olivia Beavers, Philip Wegmann, Eliza Collins and Aaron Zitner of The Wall Street Journal — Republicans are scrambling to defend congressional seats once considered safe as polling shows growing dissatisfaction with Trump. A Wall Street Journal survey found Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by seven points, with Trump’s disapproval reaching 59%. Vice President JD Vance is heading to a heavily Republican New York District where the GOP candidate trails despite Trump’s overwhelming 2024 victory. Florida Congressman Mike Haridopolos says colleagues are exhausting campaign funds rather than taking chances. Rising living costs and the Iran war have complicated Republican messaging. Democrats are expanding their battlefield, while the Senate remains competitive. House Republicans currently hold a narrow 219-214 majority.

“Woman arrested after threatening to shoot Trump at Daytona Beach rally” via Olivia Lloyd of the Miami Herald — A 21-year-old Daytona Beach woman was arrested after posting an Instagram message threatening to shoot Trump during his Friday campaign rally supporting Republican gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds. Allison Albro allegedly posted that she planned to bring a Glock to the event, prompting an investigation involving the FBI, Secret Service and Volusia Sheriff’s Office. Albro told investigators the post was a joke, denied owning firearms and said she never intended violence. Deputies found no weapons during a search of her home. Sheriff Mike Chitwood warned that threats against public officials carry consequences. Albro faces two felony charges and remains jailed without bond pending a Monday hearing.

— 2026 —

“Byron Donalds rejects David Jolly’s accusations of anti-Black policies” via Churchill Ndonwie of the Miami Herald — Republican gubernatorial nominee Donalds rejected Democratic opponent Jolly’s accusations that his policies harm Black Floridians, arguing his qualifications rest on merit and vision rather than race. Speaking alongside Trump in Daytona Beach, Donalds defended Republican civil rights history and criticized Democrats for lecturing voters about race. Jolly cited Donalds’ opposition to voting rights legislation and minority business assistance, comparing his political positions to those of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Recent polling shows Jolly leading among Black voters, although Donalds commands notable support. Donalds, seeking to become Florida’s first Black Governor, says his election would reflect Floridians’ confidence in his leadership rather than his race.

“Donalds receives $100K from businessman linked to Colombo crime family” via Scott Stedman of The Newsground — Florida car dealer John Staluppi, repeatedly identified in law enforcement records and federal court proceedings as a Colombo crime family member, contributed $100,000 to Republican gubernatorial nominee Donalds. Campaign records show Staluppi gave $97,000 to Donalds’ political committee in October and $3,000 directly to his campaign in July. Federal prosecutors previously alleged Staluppi helped finance the crime family, while cooperating witnesses identified him as an initiated member. His attorney has denied Mafia involvement. Staluppi, his wife and affiliated businesses have contributed more than $2.2 million to Republican organizations since 2020, including substantial support for Trump. Neither Staluppi nor Donalds’ campaign responded to requests for comment.

“Teamsters President Sean O’Brien backs Ashley Moody in U.S. Senate race” via Carter Schroppe of the Washington Examiner — Teamsters General President O’Brien announced Sunday that he voted for Republican Sen. Moody, endorsing her days before her Election Day contest against Democratic state Rep. Nixon. O’Brien praised Moody’s work protecting pensions, supporting apprenticeships and defending union jobs. Moody welcomed the support and pledged to keep advocating for workers and workforce training. Appointed by DeSantis in 2025 to replace then-U.S. Sen. Rubio, Moody previously served as Florida Attorney General. The Teamsters also highlighted her position on the Senate HELP Committee and efforts to advance the Faster Labor Contracts Act. Nixon recently secured an endorsement from former President Barack Obama, while Moody enjoys Trump’s backing.

“Florida’s Big Tech brawler James Uthmeier finally meets the voters” via Andrew Atterbury of POLITICO — Attorney General Uthmeier has transformed Florida’s legal office into a battleground against artificial intelligence and technology giants, filing lawsuits against OpenAI, Netflix and Meta while demanding stronger protections for children. Appointed by DeSantis, Uthmeier has pursued aggressive litigation even as Republican lawmakers rejected proposed AI regulations. His strategy faces its first electoral test Tuesday against Democratic former Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez, who criticizes Uthmeier’s handling of the Hope Florida controversy and rejection of a multistate Meta settlement. Uthmeier defends his record, saying he has protected consumers and families. With DeSantis leaving office, the election could determine whether Florida continues its confrontational approach toward Big Tech and AI regulation.

“Wilton Simpson has a clear path to re-election — and perhaps some paths after it” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics — Agriculture Commissioner Simpson appears headed for an easy victory over Democrat Joey Mendoza Atkins, whose modest fundraising pales against Simpson’s $33 million political operation. Backed by Trump, DeSantis and Florida’s Sheriffs, Simpson combines agricultural expertise, legislative experience and considerable political muscle. As Senate President, he demonstrated an ability to advance conservative priorities without unnecessary theatrics, even when clashing with DeSantis over immigration enforcement. Atkins raises legitimate concerns about corporate agriculture and farmland preservation, but lacks the resources to compete statewide. Simpson’s victory seems assured. The more intriguing question is whether his political future includes another statewide office, kingmaker status or private business.

“Floridians weigh ‘Faustian bargain’ of cutting property taxes” via Julia Echikson of The New York Times — Florida voters face a consequential decision Tuesday as Amendment 3 promises substantial property tax relief while threatening billions in local government revenue. The proposal would increase the homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, potentially saving homeowners thousands annually. However, municipalities could lose $4.9 billion initially and $8.7 billion the following year, jeopardizing libraries, parks and public services. DeSantis champions taxpayer relief, while former Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp warns communities cannot absorb such dramatic losses. October polling shows 50% support, below the required 60% threshold. Homeowners remain divided between saving money and preserving essential services, leaving the outcome uncertain.

“Amendment 2 could provide relief to farmers, stress for fiscally restrained counties” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Supporters say this would ease an unfair tax on a critical industry; critics say it could deliver a blow to fiscally constrained counties already concerned about Amendment 3’s threat to property tax revenue. Like all constitutional amendments, Amendment 2 needs a 60% vote to be added to the Florida Constitution. But Rep. Anna Eskamani, an Orlando Democrat who cast the lone vote in the Legislature against putting the tax item on the ballot, said any tax exemption will benefit corporate farms far more. “Honestly, it just comes down to need-based tax relief versus flat tax relief,” Eskamani said.

“Amendment 3: A final debate takes place in Orlando while voters head to polls” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — More than 380,000 voters in Orange and Seminole counties had cast their votes heading into Tuesday’s election as two Republicans debated the merits of Amendment 3 in downtown Orlando. State Rep. Berny Jacques, a member of the Florida Legislature that voted to put Amendment 3 on the ballot, urged attendees at the Tiger Bay Club of Central Florida luncheon to vote in favor of it. Meanwhile, Seminole County Commissioner Bob Dallari warned his county would face a $119 million funding shortfall that would lead to cuts in parks, libraries, and even law enforcement. “It’s not that we can’t afford to cut — we can’t afford to cut this way,” Dallari said, comparing it to using an ax for surgery.

— MORE ELECTIONS —

—”Cook Political Report shifts predictions in CD 7, CD 9 in Democrats’ direction” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

—”Amanda Marie Green, Austin Rogers focus on economic challenges impacting CD 2 voters” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

—”CD 11 race pits Joe Strada’s entrepreneurial story against James Pericola’s service on the Hill” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

“Mike Haridopolos, Jennifer Jenkins argue who can rocket CD 8 to new heights” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — In a single term in Congress, U.S. Rep. Haridopolos has built relationships with House leadership. But before he can act on those ambitions, he faces Jenkins, a Democratic opponent widely regarded as a top recruit. And he must win re-election in a redrawn seat that shifted several points toward Democrats under DeSantis’ mid-decade redistricting push. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Safe Republican. “We need less of Washington politicians telling us that our economy is working for us or for us to give them more time,” the Brevard Democrat said.

“Trump-aligned PAC shifts ads from Kathy Castor’s CD 14 to aid Anna Paulina Luna in CD 13” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — A Trump-aligned super PAC redirected at least $750,000 in television advertising from attacking Democratic Congresswoman Castor to defending Republican Congresswoman Luna. The No Going Back PAC’s last-minute shift bolsters Luna against Democrat Leela Gray, whose campaign has gained momentum in Florida’s 13th Congressional District. Democratic operatives interpret the move as evidence of Republican anxiety. Four polls released since late August show Gray leading by 1 to 5 percentage points, including an October survey showing a 47%-46% advantage. Luna previously released internal polling showing an eight-point lead. The advertising switch comes as Democrats target the seat as a potential pickup Tuesday.

“Jim Schwartzel remains heavy favorite over Victor Arias in deep red CD 19” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — After a hard-fought win in a Republican Primary, Schwartzel still faces one more hurdle. He’s battling Democrat Victor Arias in the General Election to decide who succeeds Republican U.S. Rep. Donalds in Congress. Schwartzel, the longtime President of Sun Broadcasting in Fort Myers, heads into Tuesday as a heavy favorite in Florida’s 19th Congressional District. “People are hurting. It’s not just at the gas pump or grocery store. It’s also now people are losing their homes to foreclosure,” Arias said.

— EVEN MORE ELECTIONS —

Richard Lamondin releases SD 38 closing message: ‘The choice is now yours’ — Lamondin, the Democratic nominee for Senate District 38, released a closing video asking Democrats, Republicans, and independents to vote for him. In the spot, Lamondin, a first-time candidate, small-business owner, and father of a 4-year-old, says the election is about the kind of Florida families hand their children. “I started this journey because of my son. Leonardo is four. Every door I knocked, I knocked for him, and for every child and family in this District who deserves a better, more affordable life,” Lamondin says. He asks whether Florida will be a place where families can afford to stay and seniors can retire with dignity, or one where housing, groceries, gas, and insurance cost more every year, and whether it will be the best place in the country to educate kids or one that spends more than $1 billion on a detention center in the Everglades while saying there is no money to pay teachers. In Spanish, he adds: “Eso no es justo. Y no tiene que ser así.” (“That’s not fair, and it doesn’t have to be this way.”) “Now is when we say enough. Now is when we demand better from a government ruled by one party for nearly 30 years while costs went up and promises were broken,” he says. “Whether you’re a Democrat, Republican, or Independent, all of you have a home in this campaign. So, Miami, the choice is now yours.”

To watch the ad, please click the image below:

“All eyes on Leonard Spencer-Erin Huntley contest in HD 45” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — Political observers are eyeing a Central Florida House race where first-term Democratic Rep. Spencer is running for re-election against challenger Huntley, the Orange County Republican Party Chair. House District 45 covers part of Orange County, including Disney World and Horizon West, as well as a small part of western Osceola County. Spencer supports expanding Medicaid; Huntley said she needed to do more research before taking a stance. Huntley is anti-abortion; Spencer said women should make their own medical decisions about their bodies. In a News Collaborative of Central Florida media voter guide, Spencer said he opposed Amendment 3, while Huntley appeared to support it. “Homeowners need relief,” Huntley wrote.

—”Jane Aman, Robert Prater square off for battleground seat in HD 37” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

—”It’s the minister vs. the doctor in HD 39” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

—”Can bipartisan results keep HD 89 blue? Debra Tendrich is banking on it as Cathy Higgins seeks flip” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

—”Open HD 100 race tests GOP strength in coastal Broward without Chip LaMarca” via Drew Wilson of Florida Politics

— STATEWIDE —

“Flags will fly at half-staff Monday for John Anderson” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics — DeSantis has ordered American and Florida flags lowered to half-staff Monday, Nov. 2, honoring country music legend Anderson, who died Oct. 21 at age 71. The directive applies to the State Capitol in Tallahassee and government buildings throughout Anderson’s hometown of Apopka, from sunrise to sunset. The tribute follows DeSantis’ executive order designating Anderson’s 1992 hit “Seminole Wind” as Florida’s Anthem. The Governor also directed the installation of historical markers recognizing Anderson’s contributions to Florida’s cultural heritage and renamed a Lake Apopka wildlife drive and trail system in his honor. Anderson’s signature song celebrates Florida’s natural beauty and environmental heritage, cementing his enduring connection to the Sunshine State.

“AI detector flags much of Education Commissioner Henry Mack’s writing as AI-generated” via Austin Horn of the Miami Herald — Most of Education Commissioner Mack’s official correspondence — which includes speeches, letters and memos — has likely been written by artificial intelligence, according to a Miami Herald analysis using the company Pangram’s AI writing detection software. The majority of his social media posts also appear to have been written by AI. Though the detection software does not definitively prove AI use, its consistent results suggest that Mack has been using AI himself, often to spread the message that Florida educators and students should not lean too heavily on the tool. Travis Jordan, Chief Communications and Marketing Officer for the Department of Education, did not directly dispute the detector’s results. “The arguments, the priorities, the voice are his,” Jordan wrote.

“Florida wildlife agency put a homebound dementia patient under surveillance” via Craig Pittman of the Florida Phoenix — Florida’s wildlife agency faces mounting scrutiny after records revealed investigators accessed personal information belonging to nearly 50 environmental activists, including a homebound woman with Alzheimer’s disease. Ben Olsen, who challenged Everglades restoration plans threatening his family’s ranch and endangered panther habitat, discovered that investigators repeatedly searched records belonging to him and his parents. His mother, Sallie Olsen, never attended agency meetings. Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission Chair Rodney Barreto defended security checks, while agency officials deny wrongdoing. Sen. Carlos Guillermo Smith filed a complaint prompting an Inspector General investigation. The revelations raise troubling questions about government surveillance, retaliation against critics and potential violations of constitutional rights.

Governor reappoints MaryLynn Magar to State Board of Education — DeSantis reappointed Magar to the State Board of Education. Magar is vice president at Heartcare Imaging. Previously, she served as a state Representative from 2012 to 2020 and as Speaker pro tempore from 2018 to 2020. Magar is affiliated with the Hobe Sound Chamber of Commerce and the Northern Palm Beach Chamber of Commerce. She is a former Martin County State Committee member and a former Trustee for All Saints Catholic School. The Senate must confirm the reappointment.

Governor appoints Alex Kelly to Florida Defense Support Commission — DeSantis appointed Kelly to the Florida Defense Support Commission. Kelly currently serves as president of Pensacola State College. Most recently, he served as Commerce Secretary and held leadership roles with the Foundation for Excellence in Education. Previously, Kelly served as Director of Legislative Affairs and Chief of Staff for the Department of Juvenile Justice, as well as Director of Legislative Affairs for the Department of Elder Affairs.

Governor appoints six to Florida Historical Commission — DeSantis appointed Kelly Chase, David Drysdale, Rick Gonzalez, and Rodney Lewis and reappointed John Browning Jr. and David Hoyt to the Florida Historical Commission. Browning is senior vice president of Political Affairs for the Goodman Company and president of Browning Consulting. Chase is Chief of the Bureau of Archaeological Research and previously served as Deputy State Historic Preservation Officer. Drysdale owns St. Augustine Alligator Farm and serves on the Flagler College Board of Trustees. Gonzalez is president of REG Architects and previously served as president of the Florida Trust for Historic Preservation. Hoyt is Executive Director of Development for the Heartland Institute. Lewis is Principal and co-founder of Architects Lewis + Whitlock.

— D.C. MATTERS —

“Trump’s secret points system for Cabinet members” via Ashley Parker and Michael Scherer of The Atlantic — We first found out about the competition when chatting with a Cabinet secretary about an event that person had declined to attend in Manhattan, in part for fear of being docked points in the White House contest for going to a solidly blue area. When we talked with Karoline Leavitt late last month, in her final days as White House Press Secretary, she marveled: “I think we have seven or eight of them out on the road in targeted districts just today.” The formal competition ran from Memorial Day to Labor Day, although secretaries will likely be encouraged to keep going through November. Rumors circulated about a prize — possibly a dinner with the President for the winning Cabinet secretary, plus their family — but several White House officials insist the competition is simply for bragging rights.

“‘I came as Donald Trump’: Trump hosts a luxury Halloween at Mar-a-Lago” via Tyler Pager of The New York Times — Cheetah and zebra stripes lined the walls and tables. Women wore sequined leotards and elaborate headdresses, and one couple flocked around in bright, feathered jungle-bird costumes. Then Trump arrived. “I came as Donald Trump,” he said, wearing his usual red tie and navy suit. “I didn’t have time to get. People spent a lot of time and money. Rich people. They spent nine hours getting ready. I had 10 minutes, so I came as Donald Trump.” The theme was the jungle, if an opulent one. Attendees posted photos on social media that showed a pen at the club with a zebra and a miniature pony. Nothing too scary.

“The State Department is in disarray under Marco Rubio” via David A. Graham of The Atlantic — Secretary of State Rubio’s reputation for seriousness has shielded his department from scrutiny, but troubling personnel decisions reveal ideological extremism and administrative incompetence. Darren Beattie, previously fired for speaking to White nationalists, now oversees Western Hemisphere affairs. Nate Hochman, dismissed from a presidential campaign over Nazi imagery, reportedly serves as Rubio’s chief speechwriter. Former ESPN personality Britt McHenry departed after an altercation at a basketball game, while Trump associate Paolo Zampolli was fired following internal disputes. Meanwhile, experienced Foreign Service officers reportedly face pressure to leave as political loyalists advance. The department’s dysfunction raises fundamental questions about American diplomacy under Trump and his administration’s priorities.

“Rubio denies U.S. helped Flávio Bolsonaro flee Brazil after election defeat” via The Associated Press — Rubio denied that the Trump administration helped defeated Brazilian presidential candidate Bolsonaro flee to Miami after losing to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Speaking during a G20 gathering in Atlanta, Rubio acknowledged that Trump authorized Bolsonaro’s entry but insisted Washington played no role in arranging his departure. Bolsonaro, who refuses to concede, faces investigations into corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion, and has been ordered to surrender his passport. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup. The younger Bolsonaro has declared himself Brazil’s legitimate election winner and claims political persecution.

— LOCAL: S. FL —

Breaking late Sunday — “Nine killed as private jet plunges into Palm Beach County roadway” via Adeel Hassan and Christina Morales of The New York Times — Nine people died Sunday when a Learjet 60 crashed nose-first into a roadway near Greenacres, exploding into flames. The business jet departed Austin, Texas, bound for the Bahamas when its pilot reported icing conditions and moderate turbulence to air traffic controllers. Moments after requesting permission to climb to 37,000 feet, the pilot declared mayday, reporting the aircraft was descending at 20,000 feet per minute. Her final transmissions warned of an imminent crash. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy confirmed everyone aboard died. Authorities had not identified the victims or determined whether anyone on the ground was injured. Federal aviation investigators are examining the crash’s cause.

To watch the video, please click the image below:

“Rain fails to dampen South Florida’s Souls to the Polls turnout” via Lauren Costantino of the Miami Herald — Heavy rain couldn’t discourage South Florida voters participating in Sunday’s Souls to the Polls initiative, with lines forming outside Miami Gardens’ North Dade Regional Library. Rev. Rhonda Thomas, executive director of Faith in Florida, described enthusiasm unmatched since 2018. Rooted in Black churches and the Civil Rights Movement, the nonpartisan initiative combines cultural celebrations with voter education and mobilization. Organizers also emphasized protecting voters from intimidation, including concerns about immigration enforcement. Rabbi Jonah Dov Pesner said Jewish leaders are training poll chaplains to de-escalate confrontations. Muslim organizations similarly encouraged congregants to vote following Friday prayers. Faith in Florida plans additional Election Day events in North Miami and Opa-locka.

He’s such a scumbag — “Fabián Basabe confronts Daniella Levine Cava, follows Miami-Dade Mayor to car” via Douglas Hanks of the Miami Herald — Republican Rep. Basabe confronted Miami-Dade Mayor Levine Cava outside a Miami Beach early-voting location Saturday, following her toward a parking garage while demanding answers about her political alliances and support for Israel. Political consultant Christian Ulvert recorded the encounter, calling Basabe’s behavior “disgraceful” and saying the Mayor felt threatened. Basabe defended his actions as free speech and accused Levine Cava of avoiding questions about Democratic Socialists, including Senate nominee Nixon. The confrontation occurred as Basabe faces Democratic challenger Lucia Baez-Geller in Tuesday’s Election. A jury found Basabe civilly liable for sexually harassing two former male staffers in July. The incident also highlights concerns about elected officials’ security.

“In Hialeah, GOP candidates evoke socialism to woo Hispanic voters” via Churchill Ndonwie of the Miami Herald — On Thursday, with only five days left before the November election, top candidates on the Republican ticket rallied in Hialeah for a final push to woo Cuban American voters. Against the backdrop of recent polls showing tight margins across the ballot, the GOP candidates issued a call to action to stop the Democratic Party, arguing it has been overtaken by socialism and asserting that Republicans are key to halting its progress in Florida. Donalds, the three-term Naples Republican congressman running against Democrat Jolly to keep Florida under Republican control, told a packed room of Hispanic voters Thursday that Hialeah is where “we stand up to communists, we stand up to socialists.”

“Camilla Kaemmer campaigning for Luis Gonzalez was on vacation, city says” via Verónica Egui Brito of the Miami Herald — A Hialeah city employee who works as a field aide in the Mayor’s office is campaigning for interim City Council member Gonzalez at an early voting site on her own time while she’s on vacation, the city said Thursday. Kaemmer, who earns an annual salary of $48,000 as an aide in the Division of Constituent Services, is on vacation from Oct. 22 through Nov. 4, covering nearly the entire early voting period. On Wednesday, the Herald observed Kaemmer carrying Gonzalez campaign signs and approaching voters in Spanish at the John F. Kennedy Library, an early voting location, to urge them to support him in the election. “Are you a Hialeah resident? Vote for Luis Gonzalez, number 143,” Kaemmer told voters as she handed out campaign flyers. The Herald sought comment from city officials about her campaign activity before publishing the story, but received no response.

“Legal challenges open Pandora’s Box in North Miami’s chaotic elections” via Olivia Lloyd of the Miami Herald — North Miami’s municipal elections have descended into courtroom battles over qualifying checks, missing signatures and paperwork errors. Judges disqualified Mayor Alix Desulme and Council candidate Hector Medina for procedural mistakes, while Desulme countersued challenger George Morgan over an 80-cent shortfall in the qualifying fee. In District 3, Council member Mary Estimé-Irvin initially disqualified opponent Jobans Jules, who responded by alleging her own paperwork was defective. Both candidates ultimately dropped their lawsuits Friday, allowing voters to decide their contest alongside Carolina Matamoros. Meanwhile, Desulme’s appeal remains pending, and proceedings could extend through Tuesday’s Election. The disputes have raised questions about strict ballot qualification requirements and voter choice.

“Mike Caruso’s child sex abuse case looms over Palm Beach Clerk race against Yvette Drucker” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Palm Beach County’s next Clerk and Comptroller will be either a Boca Raton Council member or a suspended appointee facing child sexual abuse charges and resurfaced accusations of the same. Republican Caruso, whom DeSantis appointed last year, is seeking voter approval after his arrest and suspension. His opponent is Democrat Drucker, a former Boca Raton Deputy Mayor still serving at City Hall whose campaign predates the criminal case. Authorities arrested Caruso on Aug. 18 on felony counts of kidnapping, lewd or lascivious molestation, lewd or lascivious exhibition, luring or enticing a child, and child abuse causing mental injury. Caruso, 68, has denied wrongdoing and pleaded not guilty.

“Adam Cervera seeks full Broward School Board term as Roberto Fernandez III seeks to unseat him” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Broward’s School Board has cut jobs, watched enrollment fall and weathered repeated spending controversies. Incumbent Cervera and his challenger, Fernandez, offer different visions for steering the District through those problems. Cervera, a 43-year-old Republican appointed to the School Board, is seeking voters’ approval for his confrontational approach to District oversight. Fernandez, a Democratic Army veteran and longtime educator, argues that his experience in Broward schools qualifies him to lead more measuredly. A county-level political committee Cervera chairs, Students and Parents First, funded a website attacking Fernandez over sex education, a 2017 social media post and his role in developing Florida’s Black history instruction standards. Fernandez argued that the attacks distort his views.

Governor reappoints Rudy Pages to Greater Miami Expressway Agency — DeSantis reappointed Pages to the Greater Miami Expressway Agency. Pages is Managing Partner at Caoba Capital Partners. He is a founding Board member of True North Classical Academy and a member of the Advisory Board for the Pediatric Association in South Florida. The Senate must confirm the reappointment.

Governor appoints Andrew Dulcey to Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority — DeSantis appointed Dulcey to the Florida Keys Aqueduct Authority. Dulcey is an attorney in Key West. He serves on the College of the Florida Keys District Board of Trustees. Dulcey serves on the Key West Maritime Historical Society and the Key West International Airport Ad-Hoc Committee on Noise.

— LOCAL: C. FL —

“Ron DeSantis suspends Kissimmee Mayor Jackie Espinosa following fraud arrest” via NBC 6 South Florida — DeSantis suspended Kissimmee Mayor Espinosa after she was arrested on fraud and grand theft charges involving a federally funded pandemic relief program. Authorities arrested Espinosa Oct. 21 amid allegations that businesses connected to her family improperly received grants through the Boost 2.0 economic assistance program. Prosecutors charged her with grand theft involving $20,000 to $100,000 and organized fraud exceeding $50,000. Separately, the Florida Commission on Ethics accepted a settlement in which Espinosa admitted violating state ethics laws. She must pay a $2,000 fine and issue a public apology. Vice Mayor Angela Eady will assume mayoral duties until Espinosa’s suspension ends or her term expires.

—”Angela Eady becomes Kissimmee Mayor following Espinosa’s suspension” via the Orlando Sentinel

“Central Florida schools reviewing books for ‘graphic porn,’ as state demands” via Steven Walker of the Orlando Sentinel — A scathing memo sent by Education Commissioner Henry Mack to superintendents in September threatened to “hold districts, and the superintendents who lead them, accountable for failing to protect students,” if they don’t conduct a 90-day review of all school library materials, which he suggested contain a “shocking” number of books that don’t belong on campuses. Seminole County Public Schools told the state it removed five books named in the Commissioner’s memo from school bookshelves. “My sixth grade girl, my son who’s in the fourth grade, my four-year-old who’s not yet in kindergarten, the idea that there would even be an opportunity to pull a book off the shelf and see graphic porn is unacceptable,” Mack said.

“Seminole among counties seeing vote-by-mail delays” via Christie Zizo of WKMG News 6/ClickOrlando.com — Some Florida county election officials are trying to figure out why hundreds of voters are seeing delays in getting their vote-by-mail ballots through the U.S. Postal Service. Seminole County’s Supervisor of Elections, Amy Pennock, says they had to issue more than 500 replacement ballots for voters who didn’t receive theirs in the mail. “The other day, we dealt with a requester who it took them seven days to receive a vote-by-mail ballot that was mailed from my office here in Sanford to their house here in Sanford. That’s one example,” Pennock said.

— LOCAL: TB —

“Democrats eye two flips on the Hillsborough County Commission, hope to flip the Board back to blue” via Mike Wright of Florida Politics — Four years ago, Hillsborough County voters flipped the seven-member County Commission majority to Republican with the election victories of Donna Cameron Cepeda and Joshua Wostal. Cepeda has already lost her District 5 re-election bid to Stacy Hahn in the Republican Primary, leaving an open seat between Hahn and Democrat Neil Manimala. Wostal, elected four years ago in District 7, faces Democrat Aileen Rodriguez, who bested former Hillsborough Clerk of Courts Cindy Stuart in the Primary. If both Democrats win, and incumbent Democratic Hillsborough County Commissioner Harry Cohen keeps his seat, the Board would shift from a 5-2 GOP majority to a 4-3 Democratic majority.

“A Southwest Florida family of developers is spending big in Hillsborough races” via Lizzy Alspach and Nina Moske of the Tampa Bay Times — Southwest Florida developer Patrick Neal, his son John A. Neal and affiliated companies have contributed more than $122,000 to six Hillsborough County Commission candidates since 2021, including five sitting Commissioners. More than half arrived during the current election cycle. Commissioner Gwen Myers received $31,000 toward her re-election effort, while Harry Cohen, Joshua Wostal and Stacy Hahn also benefited. The donations coincide with controversy surrounding a proposed Fort Hamer Road extension and Interstate 75 interchange that could accelerate development in rural southern Hillsborough. Former Commissioner Mariella Smith questions the family’s interest in county politics. The Neals maintain the road would improve regional connectivity and serve surrounding communities.

“Amid dengue outbreak, St. Pete residents wonder: Is a tire shop spreading it?” via Michaela Mulligan of the Tampa Bay Times — The city of St. Petersburg has filed an injunction against a tire shop, arguing that it is a public health hazard amid the rise of dengue, a mosquito-borne illness, and citing multiple confirmed cases within a few blocks. Residents in the Euclid-St. Paul area have pleaded with the city to remedy the situation, worried that the shop, Thach Tire & Rim, is a mosquito breeding site. Officials found evidence of hundreds of tires collecting water, sometimes breeding mosquitoes. A Pinellas judge granted the temporary injunction, ordering the tires to be moved into a fully enclosed, permitted structure or be removed from the property. Nareen Thach, the owner’s daughter, said her father has been throwing away tires.

— LOCAL: N. FL —

“Two people, including teen, killed, 11 shot at Halloween parties” via Teresa Stepzinski of The Florida Times-Union — Two people, including a 17-year-old girl and a 20-year-old man, died and at least 11 others were injured in shootings at two separate Halloween parties two hours apart in Jacksonville. Sheriff T.K. Waters condemned the shootings, describing them as “senseless acts.” “I am saddened by the heinous acts of violence our community endured this weekend,” Waters said. “My heart goes out to the victims of these senseless acts and the many others impacted. We will work tirelessly to bring these criminals to justice and accountability. Violence has no place in Jacksonville.” The 17-year-old girl was killed and two other people wounded in the first shooting about 1:42 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 1, in the 6200 block of Arlington Expressway. All three were “unintended targets,” Cmdr. Jacob Vorpahl of the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office said.

“Moms for Liberty stays out of Duval School Board races, but partisan politics still loom large” via Fabrizio Gowdy of Florida Politics — Conservative activist group Moms for Liberty is sitting out Duval County’s three open School Board races. The partisan lines are drawn anyway. The clearest ideological divide is in District 2, encompassing the Republican-leaning Jacksonville beaches, where Donovan Bradley and Donna Westrich are competing in an open race. Few School Districts have been reshaped by Moms for Liberty in recent years more than Duval, where the group endorsed five of the seven sitting Board members, four of whom have been elected since 2022. Moms for Liberty’s August losses, most notably in Republican-leaning Sarasota County, suggest the group’s influence may be waning.

“Jeremy Matlow gets $200K check as cash piles up in Tallahassee City Hall races” via Jeff Burlew of the Tallahassee Democrat — A California-based environmental advocacy group delivered $200,000 to Matlow’s political committee as outside spending intensifies ahead of Tuesday’s Municipal Elections. The Green Advocacy Project, linked to Sen. Bernie Sanders, previously contributed $150,000 to Matlow’s political efforts. Matlow says the money counters spending by the Ghazvini family and other developers backing his opponents. Former state lawmaker Loranne Ausley faces Matlow in a mayoral contest that could determine City Hall’s ideological direction. Political committees have poured hundreds of thousands into advertising, much of it negative. Meanwhile, Leon County’s early turnout has exceeded 2022 levels.

Governor appoints Doug Broxson to Triumph Gulf Coast Board — DeSantis appointed Broxson to the Triumph Gulf Coast Board of Directors. Broxson is an insurance agent in the Gulf Breeze area. He previously served in the Senate representing Senate District 1 and in the House representing House Districts 1 and 3. He currently serves on the Board of Governors of the State University System.

— LOCAL: SW. FL —

“Naples essential voters’ decision guide” via J. Kyle Foster, Laura Layden, Mickenzie Hannon, Liz Freeman, Phil Fernandez, Chad Gillis, and Amy Bennett Williams of the Naples Daily News — Southwest Florida voters will decide on numerous local and state-level political races. Just one seat is up for election on the Collier County Commission. Incumbent Chris Hall faces a challenger. In 2017, Collier County hiked its tourist development tax by a penny to 5%. County Commissioners approved the increase unanimously without seeking voter approval. Now, the county is considering adding another penny to the tax, bringing it to 6%. This time, voters will decide because state law now requires it. Voters from both the City of Naples and Collier County will choose five people to serve on the Naples Airport Authority Board of Commissioners. This will be the first time Commissioners are elected. Since the Legislature created the NAA in 1969, the airport Board members have been appointed by the Naples City Council. When the former Lee County Supervisor of Elections retired, DeSantis appointed Jenna Persons-Mulicka. Now she hopes to stay in by winning the election against a challenger. Established incumbents Cecil Pendergrass and Brian Hamman want to keep their seats on the Lee County Commission. They each face a challenger. Two Lee County School Board seats went to a runoff after the Primary.

— TOP OPINION —

“Will this one last political robotext change your mind?” via Stephanie Hayes of the Tampa Bay Times — Hello, valued voter! Public records indicate you’ve participated in approximately 800 elections, but we’re deeply concerned you might forget this one. Perhaps you’ll get chickenpox, suffer a flat tire or suddenly realize Election Day was yesterday. Whatever happens, please vote. Also, could you spare 15 cents?

Text STOP to opt out. Naturally, that won’t work. Another message is coming, this time from someone wearing a mustache and trench coat. Different organization, obviously. Your unread messages are multiplying faster than campaign promises, and every political operative in America apparently has your phone number. Democracy has become an endless group chat nobody remembers joining.

The messages grow increasingly desperate. Your opponent allegedly has a vestigial tail. Your homeowner’s association might discover you skipped voting. Someone knows where you live and admires your bougainvillea. There’s even a warning about Cthulhu and the impending harvesting of souls. Nothing says civic engagement quite like unsolicited psychological warfare delivered directly to your pocket.

Yet beneath the absurdity lies something serious. Midterm Elections traditionally attract fewer voters, even when the consequences are enormous. Overseas wars, rising prices and artificial intelligence threaten to reshape daily life. Sitting out because neither candidate inspires enthusiasm is hardly a solution.

Voting isn’t about finding a flawless hero. It’s about choosing who should hold power when the stakes are real. So endure the texts, ignore the ridiculous threats and make your voice heard Tuesday. Democracy needs participation, not another fundraising link. And seriously, text STOP.

— MORE OPINIONS —

“Trump has found the Attorney General of his dreams” via David French of The New York Times — There’s now a new Sheriff in town — Todd Blanche, the Attorney General of the United States and Trump’s former personal lawyer — and Blanche does what Trump says. We all know that Trump has an extreme view of executive power that renders him a virtual elected monarch. It is true that the President is the boss of every cabinet official. He can fire them at will. But it is also true that the Attorney General is different from every other member of the Cabinet.

“Why Republicans might beat the polls” via Astead Herndon of Vox — Democrats appear positioned for substantial gains in Tuesday’s Midterms, but expectations of a blue wave could undermine their chances. As Election Day approaches, political predictions increasingly reflect efforts to explain anticipated outcomes rather than what the available evidence establishes. Stories that portray Democratic victories as inevitable risk getting ahead of voters, especially as early voting continues. The emerging narrative assumes a political shift before ballots have been counted, potentially encouraging complacency among Democratic supporters. Republicans, meanwhile, could outperform expectations if the conventional wisdom proves premature. The closing days of a campaign are especially vulnerable to exaggerated forecasts and partisan expectations. A favorable political environment does not guarantee electoral success, and confident predictions remain no substitute for actual results.

“How toxic do you have to be to lose an election in Florida?” via Zoe Millán of The Florida Trib — Florida voters face candidates embroiled in scandals involving sexual misconduct, extremist associations and alleged corruption, raising questions about political accountability. State Rep. Fabian Basabe remains on the ballot despite a civil jury finding him liable for sexual harassment, battery and defamation. Congressman Cory Mills lost his Republican Primary amid multiple controversies, while Randy Fine faces criticism over anti-Muslim remarks. Moody and Uthmeier continue campaigning despite scrutiny surrounding Hope Florida. Political scientists Susan MacManus and Aubrey Jewett say relentless accusations, partisan loyalty and social media misinformation have diminished scandals’ electoral consequences. Voters increasingly dismiss allegations as political attacks, making accountability harder as Election Day approaches and public trust continues eroding.

— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —

— ALOE —

“Look up, Tampa: Air taxis are here” via Breanne Williams of the Tampa Bay Business Journal — As two small, white aircraft hovered above Tampa Bay Friday morning, aviation enthusiasts caught a glimpse of the future. The Florida Department of Transportation⁠ is working to build an aerial highway across the state for flying cars. In some ways, it’s a nod to 1914, when Tampa Bay made history with the first commercial flight, taking off in St. Petersburg and landing in Tampa. Friday’s flight marks a new evolution in aviation: the same route was retraced, this time with two electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft from Joby Aviation and BETA Technologies.

— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —

Belated best wishes to FPL’s Daniel Martel and Holly Miller, vice president of the Florida State & Local Government Services. Best wishes to Coral Springs’ favorite son, Josh Simmons.

___

Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson authored and assembled Sunburn.

The post Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 11.2.26 appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..

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