A new poll of likely General Election voters in Palm Beach County Commission District 6 shows former state Rep. Katherine Waldron holding a commanding double-digit lead over incumbent County Mayor Sara Baxter, putting Waldron on a clear path to victory in November.
Waldron leads Baxter 43% to 31% on the initial ballot — a 12-point advantage before voters hear any information about either candidate. After voters are read positive descriptions of both candidates, Waldron’s lead widens to 49% to 35%, a 14-point margin.
The poll makes clear that Baxter’s vulnerability is rooted in voters’ dissatisfaction with her performance and their negative view of her personally. Her disapproval outpaces her approval by nearly 11 points, and her image runs nearly 12 points underwater, with almost 1 in 4 voters viewing her very unfavorably.
Donald Trump is also a drag on her standing: He sits nearly 18 points underwater in the district, and a majority of voters say standing up to him is very important.
The contest has been one of the year’s more turbulent local races. Baxter, a Republican, briefly abandoned her re-election bid to run for Congress in the redrawn Florida’s 22nd Congressional District in early June. But after she launched the congressional bid, she reversed course days later after Trump publicly urged her to stay in the Commission race and endorsed her.
The President had signaled days earlier that he wanted her to remain on the Commission. An earlier survey had already flagged her as vulnerable.
Waldron, a Democrat, entered the race earlier this year and has since rolled out a string of endorsements, including U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel and Florida Senate Democratic Leader Lori Berman, with still more local officials lining up behind her in recent weeks. She served two terms on the Port of Palm Beach Commission and represented western Palm Beach County in the Florida House.
Across nearly a decade of public service, Waldron has built a record of working across communities to deliver on affordability, infrastructure, public safety, economic opportunity and responsible growth.
Both candidates still face Primary opposition. Waldron is running against Mohammad Junaid Akther, Mario Guzman and Rudolph “Rudy” Tinker, while Baxter must get past Elizabeth Accomando, President of the Indian Trail Improvement District.
The district includes Belle Glade, Loxahatchee Groves, Pahokee, Royal Palm Beach, South Bay, Wellington, Westlake and surrounding western Palm Beach County communities.
The survey was conducted by Beacon Insights via SMS among registered voters in Palm Beach County Commission District 6 from June 22-23. The sample of 502 completed surveys has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Results were weighted by party, age, race/ethnicity and gender to reflect the expected 2026 General Election electorate.
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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.
