Democratic poll shows Darren McAuley within striking distance of Gus Bilirakis

An internal poll shows Democratic challenger Darren McAuley within striking distance of Republican U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis. And it suggests there’s a clear path for the Democrat to take the lead.

The Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey shows Bilirakis, an 11-term incumbent, leading in the Florida’s 12th Congressional District race, but with just 42% support. Meanwhile, McAuley in a head-to-head matchup boasts 40% support, putting him with the poll’s 4-percentage-point margin of error.

Pollsters gave respondents “balanced biographical information” on both candidates, a polling memo states.

McAuley said the results show voters in CD 12 are hungry for change.

“Floridians are fed up with the status quo. Costs keep rising, D.C. politicians are more corrupt than ever, and the same family has held this seat for almost 40 years,” McAuley posted. “These numbers reflect what I hear every day from voters: they’re ready for real change. When I get to Congress, I’m going to fight to lower costs and make Washington work for everyday Floridians again — not the donor class.”

The poll found that independents broke heavily for McAuley, who wins those unaffiliated voters with 45% of the vote to Bilirakis’ 34%.

But Bilirakis’ campaign voiced confidence he will win re-election once again and questioned the results of the internal poll.

“Congressman Bilirakis is proud to run on his proven record, protecting kids, securing benefits and care for our Veterans, and cutting taxes on tips and overtime pay. He’ll beat whoever the eventual Democrat nominee is,” said Jim Rimes, Senior Advisor to Bilirakis.

“When a campaign releases a jacked-up poll but hides the numbers and doesn’t share the questionable methodology, that’s a sign of desperation— it’s a sign they don’t like what they’re seeing. The real numbers have us comfortably ahead.”

Notably, a mid-decade redistricting left Bilirakis in a significantly changed version of CD 12 than where he won election the last two cycles. Under new lines the district encompasses most of Pasco County with a portion of northwest Hillsborough. And while nearly 64% of voters under the former lines supported President Donald Trump in the last election, Trump won the new CD 12 with around 57% of the vote.

But the PPP results suggest voters may have some buyers’ remorse on the presidential front. Trump’s approval ratings are now underwater, with 48% disapproving of his job performance and only 45% offering strong marks.

Bilirakis earns a lower share of the vote still, with 17% of voters remaining on the fence about who to support in the Midterm Elections.

McAuley is also a newcomer to many voters. Before the new map took effect, he had intended on challenging U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee, a Thonotosassa Republican, in a district covering eastern Hillsborough with parts of Pasco and Polk. When that district shifted to include Hernando County and absorb more Republican voters, McAuley switched and decided to challenge Bilirakis instead.

Pollsters surveyed 594 registered voters in CD 12 on June 26 and 27.