Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium – Source: Unsplash

Jon-Eric Sullivan has only just arrived in South Beach to become the Miami Dolphins’ brand-new general manager. And immediately, he has his hands tied behind his back. He currently stares down the barrel of a record $99.2m cap hit, courtesy of the most expensive quarterback divorce in league history. Tua Tagovailoa — six-year starter, $212.4 million extension signed less than two years ago —gone.

And the 2023 passing yards leader isn’t the only one heading out of the Hard Rock Stadium doors this season. Tyreek Hill has been released. Jaylen Waddle traded to Denver for a first-round pick. Minkah Fitzpatrick shipped to the Jets for a seventh. Jaelan Phillips dealt at the deadline. Bradley Chubb released. Sullivan and new head coach Jeff Hafley have inherited a crime scene suspiciously abandoned by former play-caller Mike McDaniels.

Roughly 350 miles north, Jacksonville is coming off a franchise-record 13 wins and can feel a Super Bowl in the air. In Tampa, Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are furious about a 2025 season that felt like it would be special, only to end in a 9-8 wreckage in which they missed the playoffs.

So, with the NFL Draft quickly approaching, how are each of them shaping up, and what could their 2026 seasons look like? Let’s take a look.

Miami Dolphins

Online betting sites make the Miami Dolphins rank +25000 outsiders to win Super Bowl LXI in Los Angeles next February. To put that into perspective, only the Arizona Cardinals, another team in the midst of a cap disaster courtesy of Kyler Murray, are considered less likely champions. No matter how many times you run those numbers through the popular expected value calculator at Thunderpick, the honest answer comes back the same way every time: there is no positive EV to be found here. At +25000, the implied probability of the Dolphins winning Super Bowl LXI sits at a sobering 0.4% — and even the most optimistic Miami fan would struggle to argue the true probability is meaningfully higher than that.

That’s because there’s rebuilding, and then there’s this. The Dolphins went 7-10 last season — starting 1-6 before a five-win midseason rally briefly manufactured false hope — averaging just 20.4 points per game with a -4 turnover ratio.  The numbers were bad enough. But the offseason is where Miami’s transformation became genuinely jaw-dropping.

Waddle — one of the most dynamic receivers in football — moved to Denver for a first-round pick. Fitzpatrick, for years the defensive heartbeat of this team, shipped to the Jets for a seventh.  What remained was a receiver room so thin it’s almost theoretical, a defense that needs talent at virtually every level, and $66.7 million in dead cap obligations sitting on the books like a concrete block in 2026 alone.

Into this environment walks Malik Willis, signed to a three-year, $67.5 million deal — $45 million fully guaranteed — to be the face of whatever this team becomes next. Can the former Packers back-up really be Miami’s answer at quarterback? Can Sullivan build enough infrastructure around him that by the time we find out whether Willis can lead an NFL offense, there’s actually something to lead?

De’Von Achane — 1,350 rushing yards in 2025 — is the one untouchable piece, the single offensive weapon any competent coordinator could build around. Beyond him, Tutu Atwell, Jalen Tolbert, and Greg Dulcich represent the kind of receiver and tight end group that other contenders use for practice squad depth. Eleven draft picks, including No. 11 and No. 30 overall, are the only legitimate reasons for optimism.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Thirteen wins. A franchise record. An eight-game winning streak to close the regular season — Jacksonville’s most dominant stretch since 1999. The Jaguars earned their fifth-ever division title, their third AFC South crown, and then absorbed a gut-punch 27-24 Wild Card loss to the Buffalo Bills that still hurts nearly four months on.

Travis Hunter walked through the door in last year’s draft at No. 2 overall and immediately transformed the Jags’ fortunes. Travon Walker — locked up on a four-year, $110 million extension, $77 million guaranteed — is exactly the kind of defensive cornerstone that franchises spend years trying to identify and retain. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has arrived in the backfield on a two-year, $10 million deal, and both DeeJay Dallas and cornerback Montaric Brown are back. The loss of Pro Bowl linebacker Devin Lloyd leaves a genuine hole in the middle of the defense, but with 11 picks set to come in the draft — albeit none of them in the first round — Jacksonville’s roster construction could receive some serious reinforcements.

Are the Jaguars genuinely a Super Bowl contender? At +195 to win the AFC South, the market is basically screaming yes.  The more interesting question is what version of Travis Hunter emerges in Year Two — and whether that answer makes everyone else’s ceiling look smaller by comparison.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

No team had a more Jekyll-and-Hyde season than Tampa Bay in 2025. The Bucs sat at 6-2 by the time their midseason bye rolled around, while quarterback Baker Mayfield was the favorite to win the MVP award. Then: seven losses in the final nine games. A collapse so thorough that the Carolina Panthers somehow stole the divisional crown on a tiebreaker, snapping four consecutive NFC South titles in the cruelest way imaginable.

Injuries certainly played their part in that collapse. Mike Evans hurt. Chris Godwin hurt. Tryon McMillan hurt. Both offensive tackles in and out of the lineup. Mayfield himself playing through injury for stretches that would have broken lesser competitors. Emeka Egbuka — a rookie who wasn’t supposed to carry an offense — put up 938 receiving yards and six touchdowns just to keep Tampa breathing. The pass defense ranked 27th. The sack total represented the lowest of Todd Bowles’ entire tenure.

The offseason response was measured rather than panicked. Kenneth Gainwell arrives on a two-year, $14 million deal to bolster a backfield that Bucky Irving’s injury-riddled 2025 depleted; Cade Otton re-signed at three years and $30 million; Al-Quadin Muhammad adds edge depth; Alex Anzalone addresses the coverage linebacker void. Cornerback Jamel Dean departing for Pittsburgh stings, as does the departure of long-serving wideout Evans, who heads to San Francisco.

And then there’s Mayfield. His restructured deal carries $30 million guaranteed in 2026, the final year of his three-year, $100 million contract — and Jason Licht has been unambiguous that an extension is in play, telling reporters that everything’s on the table. But does Baker Mayfield’s contract situation define Tampa’s ceiling going forward? The answer is almost certainly yes.

A healthy Mayfield on a restructured long-term deal with a full complement of weapons makes Tampa a legitimate NFC South favorite at +170. An injury-ravaged Mayfield on an expiring contract with a thin supporting cast is a different equation entirely.