Politics
Last Call for 10.28.26 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics
Last Call – A prime-time read on what’s happening in Florida politics.
— First Shot —
Florida isn’t purple again, but the latest numbers are starting to look less MAGA red and more merlot.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll gives Ashley Moody a 50%-44% lead over Angie Nixon and Byron Donalds a 48%-44% edge over David Jolly.
Florida isn’t an aberration. Across very different states, ordinary partisan assumptions aren’t breaking, but they’re certainly bending — the same Times/Siena polling found a tie game in South Carolina’s Senate race and a 14-point Democratic lead in Minnesota.
Siena’s Florida poll assumes an R+13 electorate, a more favorable Republican edge than other recent public polls. Yet GOP attrition and third- and no-party voters coalescing around Team Blue leave Donalds ahead by only four.
Jolly wins 10% of registered Republicans while Donalds takes 6% of Democrats. The former Republican Congressman-turned-Democrat also carries voters outside the two major parties by 15 points. Moody, a twice-elected statewide official who spent her tenure as Attorney General picking her spots, retains 88% of Republicans and squeezes a six-point lead out of the same electorate.
Sienna’s survey includes 813 likely voters and carries a ±3.9-percentage-point margin of error. Its more important limitation is the turnout model: Siena expects past Republican voting patterns to reassert themselves.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Republicans’ combined mail and early-voting lead was roughly 53,000 ballots — less than one-third of their nearly 177,000-ballot advantage six days before the 2022 election despite their registration advantage increasing fivefold since Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 19-point re-election rout.
Donalds’ launch was supposed to resemble DeSantis’ 2018 ascent: Donald Trump’s endorsement, a national profile, Florida’s next Republican star. But DeSantis did not face this cycle’s economic anxiety or six years of exhaustion with the national show.
Despite the headwinds, Donalds remains the favorite. But with this map, this money and this registration advantage, the Republican cavalry shouldn’t be fashionably late.
— Evening Reads —
—“The seven races that will decide control of the Senate” via Theodoric Meyer and Klara Auerbach of The Washington Post
—“Florida gubernatorial hopefuls seek to expand the campaigning map” via Arek Sarkissian of POLITICO
—“A 28-year-old DOGE operative gutted USAID. HR had no record of him working there” via Molly Knight Raskin of WIRED
—“The baby bust is forcing a reckoning at public schools” via Chao Deng of The Wall Street Journal
—“Flávio Bolsonaro lands in Miami after Brazil election loss” via Tiago Rogero and Joseph Contreras of The Guardian
—“What’s behind the surge in Florida’s ICE arrests?” via Nancy Guan of WUSF
—“Can Ron DeSantis push Amendment 3 over the top?” via Mitch Perry of Florida Phoenix
—“Florida’s growing Asian American population’s untapped political potential” via Marian Chia-Ming Liu of The Florida Trib
—“Kathy Castor faces tough re-election fight against Mike Beltran in redrawn CD 14” via Jesse Mendoza of Florida Politics
—“Orange County voters will reshape commission in Nov. 3 election” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics
—“DeSoto County rejects data center rezoning, with another vote ahead” via Alice Herman of Suncoast Searchlight
—“Are Waymo’s driverless cars the next step in accessibility?” via Emma Brisk of WUSF
— Quote of the Day —
“There is a lot of stuff going on in the world. There’s a lot of stuff going on in Washington, D.C. A lot of people aren’t happy with all that. I get it. But don’t let that color your opportunity to keep things going here.”
— Ron DeSantis, stumping for Donalds in the closing stretch.
— Put it on the Tab —
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy-hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Pour Hakeem Jeffries a Boomerang for the Florida ad money his super PAC just brought back.
Pour Ron DeSantis a Long Goodbye for a campaign speech that eventually got around to Byron Donalds.
A Blackout for the Federal Election Commission, where a hack interrupted electronic filing just in time to make following the money a game of hide-and-seek.
— Breakthrough Insights —
— Tune In —
Rays hanging on by a thread
Can the Rays stay alive?
After a dramatic 12th-inning walk-off victory on Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays still have a massive mountain to climb, down three games to one in the World Series, but they have a lifeline thanks to Ben Williamson’s heroic.
Tonight, Tampa Bay will face the National League’s most dominant pitcher this season, Jacob Misiorowski, for the second time in the series (8 p.m. ET, FOX).
In Game 1, Misiorowski pitched five innings, allowing one run on four hits, and earned the win in a 3-2 Brewers’ victory.
No team has won a World Series after being down three games to none, but six teams have overcome a 3-1 deficit to win, the latest being the 2016 Chicago Cubs.
The Rays’ best chance is to be patient at the plate and let Misiorowski build a pitch count. When he has thrown more pitches, the opposition has had a better chance. In the postseason, the flamethrowing right-hander has seen his strikeout rate drop, perhaps because of arm fatigue. He struck out just four Rays batters in the series opener.
If Tampa Bay wins tonight, the series shifts back to Milwaukee for Game 6 on Friday and, if necessary, Game 7 on Saturday.
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