L.J. Holloway holds a commanding lead in the Democratic Primary for Florida’s 4th Congressional District according to a new poll of the Northeast Florida seat.
The Tyson Group survey found Holloway out in front with 41% support among likely Primary voters, compared to just 11% for Michael Kirwan and 4% for Brit Robinson. Another 43% were undecided, while 2% declined to answer.
Holloway’s advantage appears rooted in familiarity — three in five CD 4 Democrats said they had heard of her, and those who knew enough about her to have an opinion broke positive 36%-3%.
Kirwan, a retired attorney and former Jacksonville Ethics Commission Chair, was 20 points back in name-ID, with 41% of respondents telling pollsters they had heard of him. He was above water 16%-4% on the favorability test, while Robinson posted 34% on name ID with a 6%-4% favorability split.
Holloway’s edge is strongest among Black voters, who back her over Kirwan 51%-5%. Holloway also leads among older voters, voters under 45, women, and among Democrats who cast a ballot in the last three Primary elections. Kirwan’s only edge was among white voters, who broke his way 23%-20%.
Holloway was the Democratic nominee in CD 4 in both 2022 and 2024. Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Aaron Bean carried the Clay-, Nassau- and Duval-based district by double digits in both cycles.
Further up the ballot, The Tyson Group found CD 4 Democrats leaning toward Rep. Angie Nixon in the U.S. Senate Primary over Alex Vindman 52%-14%, with 31% unsure. Those results stand in sharp contrast to a recent statewide poll from Change Research showing Vindman ahead 34% to 24%, with 41% undecided.
The poll was conducted July 15 via live telephone and text-to-web. It surveyed 400 likely CD 4 Democratic Primary voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.
