Keeneland Opening Weekend: Late P5 Analysis and Preview
The Derby and Oaks Prep season is beginning now, Breeders’ Cup races are beginning to take shape, the NFL season is in full swing, and the MLB playoffs are underway; it is a good time to be a sports fan! Let ‘em Run will follow the horse racing action, and this week we turn our attention to some very nice racing at the opening weekend at Keeneland, where the 2026 Breeders Cup will be held. This is our analysis of the Late P5 at Keeneland races 6–10.
Race 6: The Woodford Stakes (Gr. 2, $400K)
3:40 EST | 5 ½ Furlongs (Turf)
We will stay skinny here, as we see 3 horses with a chance to win this sprint turf event. The #6 Joe Sheisty (5-2) is in excellent form and has 3 BSF in the 100’s in the last 3 races. Jockey Fernando De La Cruz stays along for the ride. He has been riding on turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis very strongly this week. The Ireland-bred, west coast invader #3 No Nay Hudson (8-1) and the #10 Doncho (7-2) are our other 2 selections. The Ortiz brothers may be battling for the wire, although the #10 Doncho has a tough post to overcome.
Our picks on the ticket: 6, 10, 3
Race 7: The TCA Stakes (Gr. 2, $400K)
4:12 EST | 6 ½ Furlongs (Dirt)
The Brisnet.com Prime Power numbers say this race is an evenly matched race. We like the #6 Ectalant (6-5), who is the class of the field. Draw a line through the last race and you may be looking at the winner. Jockey Jose Ortiz getting back aboard the #4 Evanescence (4-1) offers some value here, and is 2 for 2 at Keeneland and at the distance. Also included is the #7 Echo Sound (5-2), who may get a nice trip from this post and is the speed of the speed with a 127 TimeformUS early pace figure. Third off the layoff and jockey Luis Saez adds to the appeal.
Our picks on the ticket: 6, 4, 7
Race 8: The First Lady Stakes (Gr. 1, $800K)
4:44 EST | 1 Mile (Turf)
A very deep and talented field of 11 runners is ready to line up in this edition of the Grade 1 First Lady. We are landing on #2 Lush Lips (GB) (8-1) as a strong value play here. The last out race was merely a prep for this matchup, and the cutback to a mile is big. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione knows her well.
Another play that has value attached is the #5 And One More Time (10-1) with jockey Javier Castellano up. This runner is 4 for 5 at the distance and has been keeping good company in recent races at Saratoga. This is a wide open race, and a runner who may close strongly if a suicidal pace duel unfolds is the #6 Deep Satin (8-1). The distance may not suit perfectly, but jockey Jose Ortiz will keep this gal close to the lead. Our ticket selections will reflect our opinion that this is a race to go deep in.
Our picks on the ticket: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
Race 9: The Breeders’ Futurity K.D. Prep (Gr. 1, $650K)
5:16 EST | 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)
This race for two-year-olds may be a look into the horse that will make some noise come the 1st Saturday in May. We will look at runners here. We like the #6 American History (4-1) the best. Jockey John Velazquez is a master guiding young runners to the wire. The post position gives him options for this expensive son of Constitution. The #1 Coach Pope (4-5) and the #2 Q B Rocket (2-1) ($1.9 million purchase) certainly deserve favoritism.
Our picks on the ticket: 6, 1, 2
Race 10: The Turf Mile Stakes (Gr. 1, $1,250,000)
5:48 EST | 1 Mile (Turf)
This is where we all will be looking for our “will pays.” This is another stacked field for this edition of The Turf Mile, and we like the #9 Zulu Kingdom (3-1) to take the top spot. This entrant from trainer Chad Brown can be “scary” at his best, and we think the workouts leading up to this race and the record at the distance (8-4-0-2) say yes.
We will clearly be looking for value in race 8, and we believe there is a solid chance. So take our thoughts, with your picks and put together a winning ticket for Keeneland.
Be sure to tune in on Saturday at 12:30 where we will update our ticket and picks, after any changes and scratches. You can catch us on Sports Talk Media Network and Capital Sports Network. There is also a link in the article to tune in to the podcast… so we hope to see you then.
As always, bet smart, cheer hard, fast horses can lead to some real fun and in the end, just Let ‘em Run.
