Here’s Brunch, a pop-up, weekend email about the 2026 Election Cycle — 10.18.26

Good Sunday morning, and welcome back to “Brunch,” a pop-up newsletter about the 2026 Election Cycle and more.

There are 16 days until Election Day, and early voting opens in many counties on Monday.

I’m still wondering how in the hell the zebras called a penalty on the 36-yard touchdown pass from FSU’s Ashton Daniels to Micahi Danzy, which would have given FSU a chance to tie the game and force another epic showdown between the Seminoles and the Hurricanes to triple overtime. I hate sports.

But wait, the Tampa Bay Rays won Game 4 of the ALCS last night, which means there will be (at least) a Game 6 in the ‘burg on Monday. I love sports. Game 5 is at 5:08 p.m. ET today in Cleveland.

Rest in peace to Joe Redner, Tampa’s “strip club king,” but also a legal scholar, political provocateur, and medical marijuana advocate. Redner was 86. Read the Tampa Bay Times obit here.

Happy birthday to former state Rep. Amber Mariano Davis, now Chief of Staff in the U.S. Department of Education, former U.S. Rep. Dennis Ross, and the inimitable Dara Kam of State Affairs.

Be sure to check out our choices for the Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics here.

Now, enjoy Brunch!

— Fundraising flurry —

Money continues to flow into statewide races and ballot initiatives, including the closely watched Amendment 3, the Governor’s race, and the U.S. Senate contest.

— Realtors rally: The National Association of Realtors gave $2,016,500 to the Yes on 3 committee Oct. 9. As of that date, the committee had taken in $21,516,510, with roughly $7 million left to spend. It needs the money: the vast majority of polls, including two released this week, show the homestead exemption hike falling short of the 60% it needs.

— Good news, bad news: In the week ending Oct. 9, David Jolly raised more than $1.97 million between his campaign account and his Florida 2026 political committee. That’s one of his best weeks yet, powered by more than 10,000 individual donors. The problem: Byron Donalds tripled the haul. Jolly has raised more than $21 million this cycle and spent more than $17 million. Donalds has raised more than $146 million and spent more than $110 million.

— Angie ascendant: Donors didn’t find Rep. Angie Nixon ahead of the August Primary. But they’re showing up now. The Jacksonville Democrat raised $7.6 million from July 30 through Sept. 30. U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody brought in about $5.8 million in total receipts for the quarter between her campaign account and committees. Moody still leads in cash on hand. Nixon started the month with about $4.5 million at her disposal, while Moody entered the final stretch with more than $7.1 million.

— Get on the bus —

Republican gubernatorial nominee Donalds is rolling into a town near you between now and Election Day, with 50 stops in 38 counties starting Monday alongside his wife, Erika Donalds, and running mate Bryan Ávila.

— Going everywhere: “We are going to reach every corner of this state and meet voters where they are,” Donalds said. “Florida families want a state that is more affordable and stays the best place in America to work, live, and raise a family. That is what we are fighting for, and I am looking forward to hearing from folks in every community along the way.”

— Three stops a day: Donalds will be in Plant City Monday morning, then head to The Villages and Jacksonville Beach. Tuesday finds him in Melbourne, Fort Pierce, and Miami. Wednesday starts with another stop in Miami, then heads to Fort Lauderdale and Clewiston.

— Time-honored tradition: There is ample precedent for bus tours in Florida, and the campaigns that used them have had varying degrees of success. Presidential candidate Bill Clinton did one in 1992; gubernatorial candidates Jeb Bush in 1994 and Philip Levine in 2018; and U.S. Senate candidate Val Demings in 2022.

— Rabbi reinforcements —

Donalds has picked up the backing of 40 Florida rabbis, who signed an open letter his campaign released.

— Statewide minyan: The signers come from 17 cities in seven counties, though 36 of them hail from Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. Aventura and Hollywood each supplied six, while Okeechobee, Ponte Vedra Beach, Tallahassee, and Tampa contributed one apiece.

— Making the case: The rabbis credit Donalds’ vow to keep antisemitism off college campuses, his push to grow school scholarship programs as a state lawmaker, and his support for Israel during Hamas rocket fire in 2021.

— Rare consensus: Campaign surrogate Bryan Leib joked that getting two rabbis to agree is tough, “and 40 of them just agreed on Byron Donalds.”

— Polling patchwork: Recent surveys are all over the map. St. Pete Polls (Oct. 5-7) and Change Research (Oct. 8-10) both show a tie between Donalds and Jolly, while Mason-Dixon (Sept. 28-Oct. 1) has Donalds up 7 and Stetson University (Oct. 1-9) has him up 11.

— Jolly ol’ time —

The Democratic Hispanic Caucus of Florida is rallying behind gubernatorial nominee Jolly in Miami tonight, kicking off early voting in Miami-Dade County.

— Time and place: The “Creamos En Florida” event runs 5-8 p.m. at the Unitarian Universalist Congregation of Miami, 7701 SW 76th Ave.

— Early bird special: Miami-Dade opens its early voting sites Monday, and organizers expect elected officials, down-ballot candidates, and a crowd of new and returning Democratic voters to turn out the night before.

— Food for thought: Attendees can expect food and drinks along with the campaign pitch.

— Feeling the Bern —

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders wraps up a two-day Florida swing with Nixon today, bringing his “Fighting Oligarchy” tour to Gainesville and Tallahassee.

— Gator gathering: The pair rallies at noon at the University of Florida’s University Auditorium, 333 Newell Drive, Gainesville, with doors opening at 10:30 a.m.

— Capital closer: They finish the night at 8 p.m. at The Moon, 1105 E. Lafayette St., Tallahassee, where doors open at 6 p.m.

— Weekend warm-up: The tour opened Saturday with stops at The Cuban Club in Tampa, where more than 2,000 turned out in the rain, and the Crowne Plaza Melbourne Oceanfront.

— Bernie’s pitch: The Vermont Senator praised Nixon as a leader willing to stand up to billionaires and fight for working families, arguing the country can’t afford politics as usual.

— Sunday service —

Annette Taddeo, the Democratic nominee for Chief Financial Officer, closes out a weekend swing across the state with stops in South Florida today.

— Pews and pulpits: Taddeo plans to visit Black churches in South Florida between 9 a.m. and noon, though the campaign hasn’t announced which congregations.

— Boca bound: She’s also slated for a community event in Boca Raton from 10 a.m. to noon, with the location still to be confirmed.

— Counting on it: Taddeo faces Republican CFO Blaise Ingoglia, and the James Madison Institute’s latest poll (Sept. 28-Oct. 4) found the two tied at 43% among likely voters, with 10% undecided. That makes it the tightest statewide race in the survey.

— Busy weekend: The Sunday stops follow a Saturday that took her to a No Kings event in Palm Beach County and a sheet metal workers’ picnic in Coconut Creek.

The JMI poll, conducted online by Targoz Market Research, surveyed 1,200 registered voters, with the horse race reported among a likely-voter subset. The margin of error is 2.8 percentage points.

— Silver swing —

Voters 50 and older could decide which party controls the U.S. House, according to new AARP polling, fielded Oct. 1-5, across 43 competitive congressional districts.

— Close call: Democrats lead 49% to 46% among all voters surveyed, but Republicans hold a 53% to 43% edge with those 50-plus.

— Showing up strong: Older voters make up 62% of the likely electorate in the battleground seats; 83% rated their eagerness to vote a perfect 10, rising to 88% among those 65 and up, versus 66% of voters under 50.

— Up for grabs: Just over a fifth of voters 50-plus haven’t settled on a candidate, accounting for more than half the persuadable pool.

— Pocketbook pressure: Groceries, gas, and healthcare top their cost worries, and 55% say they’re anxious about their own finances. Affordability ranks as the No. 1 issue for 26% of voters aged 50-64, but just 16% of those 65-plus, who are more likely to put Social Security and Medicare first.

— Winning pitches: Ninety-four percent say they’d be more inclined to back a candidate who guarantees workers receive the Social Security benefits they earned. Large majorities also favor letting Medicare negotiate prices on more drugs (85%) and a tax break for unpaid caregivers (77%).

Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research surveyed 1,368 likely voters in the 43 districts The Cook Political Report rated Toss Up or Lean as of Oct. 5. The margin of error is 2.7 percentage points.

— Leaning left —

U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz got another boost from the handicappers Friday, with The Cook Political Report now rating his race in Florida’s 25th Congressional District “Lean D.”

— Rating upgrade: Cook pulled the contest out of the “Toss Up” column, one of 11 House races it nudged toward Democrats.

— Following the forecast: Sabato’s Crystal Ball made the same switch last week, and Fox News did so in September.

— Coalition math: Jewish and Hispanic voters each make up about a quarter of the electorate. Cook’s Erin Covey expects Moskowitz’s pro-Israel record to carry Jewish voters and notes Hispanic voters in South Florida have drifted back to Democrats.

— Red-tinted turf: The redrawn District, running from Delray Beach to Miami-Dade’s barrier islands, went for President Donald Trump by about 9 points in 2024, and registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 5 points.

Moskowitz faces Republican Scott Singer, the former Boca Raton Mayor. Libertarian Peter Jassenoff and write-in candidate Michaelangelo Hamilton are also running.

— Hard hat picks —

Associated Builders and Contractors Florida East Coast is lining up behind a largely Republican slate for November, with picks stretching from the Governor’s Mansion to School Boards across seven counties.

— Top of the blueprint: The chapter backs Republican Donalds and running mate Bryan Ávila for Governor and Lieutenant Governor, along with CFO Blaise Ingoglia, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, Attorney General James Uthmeier, and U.S. Sen. Moody.

— Congressional framework: Republican U.S. Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart, Carlos Giménez, Mike Haridopolos, Brian Mast, and María Elvira Salazar earned endorsements, as did Republican Scott Singer in the competitive race for Florida’s 25th Congressional District.

— Legislative load-bearers: Republican Sens. Alexis Calatayud in Senate District 38 and Ana Maria Rodriguez in Senate District 40 made the list, along with Republican Reps. Hillary Cassel in House District 101 and Anne Gerwig in House District 93.

— Across the aisle: Four Democrats also got the nod: Lauren Book in Senate District 30, Ashley Gantt in Senate District 34, Rob Long in House District 90, and Debra Tendrich in House District 89.

— Down-ballot drywall: The slate extends to County Commission and School Board races in Brevard, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie counties.

ABC Florida East Coast President and CEO Peter Dyga said the endorsed candidates grasp that construction thrives on “open competition, a trained workforce, and a permitting process that works.”

— Last call for ads —

Campaigns hoping to reach Floridians on Facebook or Instagram in the homestretch have just over a week to get their spots live.

— Freeze-frame: Meta will halt new political and issue ads at 12:01 a.m. Pacific time on Tuesday, Oct. 27, which is 3:01 a.m. ET, and keep the block in place through Election Day on Nov. 3.

— Tradition holds: The company has imposed a final-week blackout on new ads during each General Election cycle since 2020.

— Beat the clock: Only ads that have cleared approval and are already running before the cutoff will keep appearing on either platform during the campaign’s closing days. Meta recommends submitting ads by Tuesday to clear review in time.

— Easy to miss: The advisory flags this as the deadline campaigns most frequently overlook.

— Ballot by bot —

Voters turning to AI chatbots to size up their ballots aren’t necessarily making a mistake, according to a political scientist at Florida State University.

— Bot boom: Pew Research Center found 42% of American adults use tools such as ChatGPT and Google Gemini to look things up.

— Cheap intel: LeRoy Collins Institute Director Lonna Atkeson said the tools help most in local contests, where pinning down a candidate’s views is tough, and voters often lean on party labels or endorsements instead. Pulling together material from many sources, she said, “significantly lowers the cost of becoming informed.”

— Glitches in the machine: Chatbots can invent convincing but false information, and users interviewed by NPR described them as “people pleasers” that nudge people toward views they already hold.

— Ask smarter: Atkeson advised voters to have AI compare where candidates stand on specific issues rather than asking it whom to support.

She doesn’t expect chatbots to sway top-of-ticket picks, since most voters have already settled on those races.

— Editorial roundup —

A roundup of recent editorials from Florida’s leading newspapers:

— Orlando Sentinel: “Judicial races present clear choices for voters” — Judicial elections require attention to qualifications, temperament and the responsibilities of the bench. Voters in Seminole, Orange and Osceola counties have an opportunity to consider Alena Chaban and Temika Hampton-Johnson for judgeships. Judicial races can attract less attention than contests for Governor or Congress, but the people elected to these positions make decisions that affect families, businesses and public safety. These selections place judicial experience and the work of local courts squarely in the spotlight ahead of November’s General Election.

— Orlando Sentinel: “Samuel Vilchez Santiago and Jane Aman offer priorities for Florida” — Florida House races deserve scrutiny beyond party labels. Santiago in District 43 and Aman in District 37 offer voters choices about how their communities should be represented in Tallahassee. Legislative decisions shape education, transportation, housing and the cost of living, making local House contests consequential even when statewide races dominate attention. The next Legislature will face difficult decisions, and voters should weigh candidates’ priorities and their ability to represent constituents before casting ballots in the General Election.

— Miami Herald: “Miami-Dade voters weigh school funding referendum” — Miami-Dade voters face a consequential decision about public schools and the resources needed to support them. School funding choices affect classrooms, staffing and the services families rely upon, while also raising questions about what taxpayers can afford. The referendum deserves attention to its actual provisions and financial consequences rather than campaign slogans. Residents should consider how the measure would affect District operations and long-term obligations before deciding whether the proposed approach best serves students, educators and the wider community.

— Miami Herald: “Three Florida ballot amendments warrant rejection” — Florida’s Constitution should not become a shortcut for poorly understood policy changes. Three proposed ballot amendments invite voters to consider consequences that could extend well beyond Election Day. Changes to taxes and government responsibilities deserve careful scrutiny, including their effects on local services and future budgets. Voters should examine the precise language, the groups affected and the trade-offs involved. Constitutional changes are difficult to reverse, so voters should understand each proposal thoroughly before the November vote.

— Tampa Bay Times: “David Jolly offers a different vision for Florida” — Florida needs a Governor who approaches the job as a practical responsibility rather than a test of partisan loyalty. Jolly presents a centrist vision in which government should improve daily life for residents across political divisions. Economic opportunities, competent administration and attention to voters outside a candidate’s base are central considerations. The next Governor will inherit complicated challenges, and Floridians should consider whether an emphasis on pragmatism and broad representation offers the leadership they want in Tallahassee.

— Palm Beach Post: “Jolly, Rodriguez and Taddeo receive statewide endorsements” — Florida’s statewide offices carry distinct responsibilities, and voters should examine each candidate’s qualifications. Jolly, Jose Javier Rodriguez and Taddeo are the selections identified in this election endorsement coverage. The Governor and Cabinet influence major decisions involving state administration, financial oversight and public services. A ballot filled with prominent races can obscure the importance of these offices. Voters should evaluate the candidates’ records and stated priorities, considering how each would exercise the authority of the position sought.

— Brunching out —

Casa Grande Latin Fusion, formerly Casa Tapas & Cantina, took its new name to reflect a more diverse lineup, bringing diners more flavors and cultural traditions. To get a sense of its diversity, stop by the elaborate, all-you-can-eat Sunday brunch buffet.

— Backstory: The restaurant is owned by Genaro Ramirez and his wife, Claudia, who are originally from Mexico. The couple also owns C|G Margaritas & Cocina at 1800 Thomasville Road and their original restaurant, Casa Grande Bar & Grill, at 3212 Apalachee Parkway.

— Setting: You might remember Casa Grande Latin Fusion as the longtime home of Marie Livingston’s Steakhouse. It keeps some of that steakhouse vibe, which makes it a destination for dates as well as family outings. Seating is available in the bar area and the larger dining room. Buffet trays are arranged on stations in the lobby so there’s no jostling for a place in line.

— Menu: The menu now spans Spanish, Cuban, American, Mexican, and Peruvian cuisine, and the brunch pulls from all of it: ropa vieja, chicken fricassee, roast pork, and croquetas alongside fried chicken, bacon and eggs, appetizers, and salads, plus at least 20 sides. I was surprised to find biscuits and gravy. Then there’s dessert: 10 choices, including flan, churros, tres leches, and lots of pastries.

— Beverages: Casa Grande has a full bar, coffee, juice, bottomless mimosas, mimosa flights, and six specialty cocktails concocted for the Sunday brunch. You can also order from the regular beverage menu. A seasonal splash: Halloween-themed drinks.

— Details: Casa Grande Latin Fusion, 2705 Apalachee Parkway, 850-765-1770. Open from 11 a.m. to 10 p.m. Monday to Saturday; 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. on Sunday for brunch. Buffet: $25; $15 for kids. The restaurant hosts a Halloween party and costume contest from 8 to 11 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 24.

The post Here’s Brunch, a pop-up, weekend email about the 2026 Election Cycle — 10.18.26 appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..

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