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OpenAI’s reported $500 billion valuation signals AI euphoria

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And this week saw the Sam Altman-led company unveil its long-awaited GPT-5, along with a sweeping U.S. government partnership. There’s also a key number now in the mix: $500 billion, the reported new valuation OpenAI is set to hit amid a share sale

That half-a-trillion number—up from $300 billion—is stunning on many levels. I’ll spare you the obligatory market cap comparisons (“that’s the equivalent of 10 Ford Motor companies!”). Wild though the prospective valuation may seem, it also poses important questions about where we are in the cycle of this AI boom. Venture funding, overall, isn’t booming as much as you’d expect. According to new Crunchbase data, global venture funding hit $29.7 billion in July, down from $43 billion in June. AI, of course, continues to attract most of the action, accounting for 37%, or $11 billion, of the July funding numbers.

And for the top-tier AI deals, valuations are breathlessly high, and that’s not just the case for OpenAI: Anthropic’s reportedly heading towards $170 billion, Perplexity’s reportedly at $18 billion, and Elon Musk’s xAI (yes, also reportedly) is chasing a valuation of $200 billion. This is all happening quickly, said Nnamdi Okike, cofounder and managing partner of 645 Ventures. 

“Many companies are raising huge amounts of money in very short periods of time,” he told Fortune. “Even when there’s fundamental substance behind the rounds, that means there’s typically some dislocation. If you zoom out, how many winners are there really going to be? That’s the really important question. With a rising tide, what typically gets missed is that—in most markets—there are only a couple winners. It might be the case that these fast-rising valuations are justified for one or two of those winners. But it’s certainly not the case that rapidly increasing valuations are justified across the board.” 

Okike does think OpenAI could be a long-term winner. But he’s also a history buff, noting that broadly we’re seeing classic signals of market euphoria and potential bubbles.

“History teaches us that when valuations go up very rapidly, when round sizes and valuations are higher than they’ve ever been, those signs indicate euphoria,” said Okike, who sees echoes of the Dotcom bust and the search engine wars. “They indicate potential bubble-like qualities, and that investors should be very careful when rounds and prices increase as quickly as they’re increasing.” 

See you Monday,

Allie Garfinkle
X:
@agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter. Subscribe here.

Venture Deals

August Health, a San Francisco-based electronic health record platform for senior living experts, raised $29 million in Series B funding. Base 10 Partners led the round and was joined by General Catalyst, Matrix Partners, and others.

Tavily, a New York City-based search layer for AI applications, raised $25 million across seed and Series A rounds. Insight Partners and Alpha Wave Global led the $20 million Series A.

Orbital Operations, a Long Beach, Calif.-based orbital vehicle manufacturer, raised $8.8 million in seed funding. Initialized Capital led the round and was joined by Harpoon Ventures, DTX Ventures, Rebel Fund, TRAC VC, Karman Ventures, and others.

Translucent AI, a New York City-based developer of AI-powered financial analyst software for health care operators, raised $7 million in seed funding. NEA led the round and was joined by Virtue, FPV, and Redesign Health.

Tracelight, a London, U.K.-based developer of AI technology for financial modeling, raised $3.6 million in seed funding. Chalfen Ventures led the round and was joined by Acequia Capital, Inovo, EF, and angel investors. 

Ostra Security, an Eden Prairie, Minn.-based managed security provider, raised $2.6 million in a Series A extension. General Catalyst and Rally Ventures led the round and were joined by Jeff Cowan at CapitalFour.

Private Equity

Versaterm, backed by Permira and Banneker Partners, acquired DroneSense, an Austin, Texas-based developer of drone software designed for use by public safety agencies. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Exits

Shamrock Capital acquired Penta Group, a Washington, D.C.-based stakeholder management firm, from Falfurrias Capital Partners. Financial terms were not disclosed.

IPOs

Firefly Aerospace, a Cedar Park, Texas-based space and defense technology company, raised $868 million in an offering of 19.3 million shares priced at $45 on the Nasdaq. The company posted $108 million in revenue for the year ending March 31, 2025.

WhiteFiber, a New York City-based AI infrastructure company, raised $159 million in an offering of $9.4 million shares priced at $17.

People

Bain Capital Ventures, a San Francisco-based venture capital firm, promoted Abby Meyers and Ron Miasnik to partner.

This is the web version of Term Sheet, a daily newsletter on the biggest deals and dealmakers in venture capital and private equity. Sign up for free.



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Jim Carrey nearly quit ‘Grinch’ — Then the founder of SEAL Team Six came to the rescue

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For his role in the movie How the Grinch Stole Christmas, which came out in 2000, Jim Carrey’s tortuous costume and makeup had him on the verge of walking away from a $20 million paycheck.

In an interview with Vulture, the actor said the first day of makeup took eight hours. He nearly quit and suffered from panic attacks after having to wear painful green contacts, makeup that made him breathe through his mouth the whole time, and a full body suit made of itchy yak hair. But before he walked away, producer Brian Grazer hired the founder of SEAL Team Six to help Carrey suck it up.

“Richard Marcinko was a gentleman that trained CIA officers and special-ops people how to endure torture. He gave me a litany of things that I could do when I began to spiral. Like punch myself in the leg as hard as I can. Have a friend that I trust and punch him in the arm. Eat everything in sight. Changing patterns in the room,” Carrey told Vulture in the interview, which was published on Friday.

“If there’s a TV on when you start to spiral, turn it off and turn the radio on. Smoke cigarettes as much as possible. There are pictures of me as the Grinch sitting in a director’s chair with a long cigarette holder. I had to have the holder, because the yak hair would catch on fire if it got too close,” he added.

Carrey said he later learned that Marcinko was the founding officer of SEAL Team Six, the famed special-operations unit. Marcinko passed away at age 81 in December 2021.

Director Ron Howard and Grazer, who were also part of the Vulture interview, recalled Carrey struggling onset because of his Grinch costume.

Howard said the pain he endured was less physical than mental as the makeup was “destroying” Carrey’s skin. It was determined by medical professionals that Carrey couldn’t work in the makeup five days in a row, so he would have a day off or only be off-camera feeding dialogue on Wednesdays, he added.

“Jim started having panic attacks. I would see him lying down on the floor in between setups with a brown paper bag. Literally on the floor. He was miserable,” Howard said.

Carrey even offered to return his entire $20 million paycheck, with interest, Grazer said. But, instead Grazer found Marcinko. 

“I said, ‘Listen, you can quit on Monday, but just spend time with this guy on the weekend,’” Grazer said.



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A NIMBY revolt is turning voters in Republican strongholds against the AI data-center boom

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Silicon Valley and Washington sees data centers as the backbone of America’s AI future. Residents who live next to them see giant, humming boxes that throw diesel exhaust into the air, drive up energy costs, and steamroll the look and feel of their neighborhoods—“a plague,” as Virginian anti-data center activist Elena Schlossberg put it.

“If you live near a data center that’s being powered by these gas turbines, you simply cannot imagine living there,” she said. You can “hear the noise” in your home, added Schlossberg—who got into the fight a decade ago while trying, unsuccessfully, to stop Facebook from putting a data center next to her property. 

Virginia has long been the biggest data center hub of not just the country but the world, with northern Virginia alone hosting 13% of the globe’s data centers in 2023, according to a government report. And for just as long, residents have been locked into battles over what that footprint means for their communities.

Now, Schlossberg is leading a Virginia nonprofit group, Save Prince William County, to fight against the encroachment of even more data centers to power the AI boom. Data center power demand is expected to rise five-fold over the next decade, Deloitteprojects; reaching 176 gigawatts, the same amount as Australia and the United Kingdom’s entire power grids combined.

AI infrastructure builders, and the tech giants that plan to rely on the future data centers, argue that they’re essential to unlocking AI’s economic benefits. But in some of the states slated to house these projects, many of them politically purple-ish or even red—Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania—voters are revolting, often successfully keeping them out of their neighborhoods. Indeed, in elections held last month, opposition to data centers helped tip elections in Democrats’ favor in Virginia and Republican-leaning Georgia.

“Folks realize they’re getting duped,” said Kerwin Olson, executive director of the Citizens Action Coalition, an environmental advocacy coalition based in Indiana. “It’s not just something they hear on Fox News or MSNBC anymore. It’s happening in their own backyard.”

Big Tech companies, Olson added, are showing up at local planning commissions and drainage boards asking for “huge giveaways”— tax abatements, zoning variances, special exceptions —”all to build a $3 billion box that creates maybe 30 jobs.”

“So they’re like, what’s in it for us?” Olson asked. 

Upcoming political battles

The first signs of what could be a broader political reckoning are appearing at the county level. In Prince William County—home to the fight over a proposed 2,000-acre “Digital Gateway” development near the Manassas battlefield—data centers have already forced recalls, resignations, and primary defeats of elected officials, Schlossberg said. The issue has become so radioactive that candidates in both parties now treat opposition to data-center expansion as a prerequisite for running, she added.

“It’s never been red versus blue,” Schlossberg said. “It’s people who live here versus people who want to industrialize where we live.”

That county could be a canary in the coalmine for what comes next, as Democrats and Republicans approach critical midterm congressional elections in 2026. Across key swing states, activists say the next wave of AI-driven projects will collide with a public that is far more organized and hostile than it was even two years ago. 

That tension is beginning to creep into politics. In Indiana, legislators publicly tout the state’s new data-center incentives while privately warning counties that the projects are not without tradeoffs. In Virginia, candidates now get asked—at libraries, at farmer’s markets, even at high school football games—whether they would support a temporary moratorium.

Olson said his group has been “buried” in calls from Hoosiers in every corner of the state—red, blue, rural, suburban—asking for help deciphering tax abatements and utility filings. “I’ve worked on energy issues for decades,” he said. “I have never seen anything like the scale of anger over this.”

When voters see those consequences firsthand, Olson said, they stop caring about geopolitical talking points. “You can tell people this is about beating China,” he said. But when their bill goes up, and their kids are sleeping in basements with headphones on because of the noise, they’re not thinking about China. 

At the heart of the backlash is a basic economic question that data-center backers haven’t convincingly answered: Why should the public subsidize infrastructure that serves some of the world’s richest companies?

Indiana’s first filing under its new “80/20” law—touted as a safeguard to make data centers pay most of the costs—still leaves ratepayers actually footing nearly 40% of the bill, Olson said. The organization he runs, Citizens Action Coalition, did an analysis that revealed that Hoosier households paid 17.5% more in utility bills in 2025 than the previous year. In Virginia, residents fear they will ultimately finance the transmission lines and new generation needed to serve hyperscale facilities.

“The public utility model was always a social contract,” Schlossberg said. “The data-center industry blew that up.”

In many ways, the backlash boils down to a trust problem. Residents don’t trust Big Tech, seeing the hyperscalers as being like “robber barons at the turn of the century” but with unprecedented demands for land, water, and power. Olson pointed to NDAs, closed-door negotiations, and local officials dining with tech consultants as signs that decisions are being made over communities’ heads and without local voters’ input. Layered onto that is a broader skepticism of AI itself: Many voters aren’t convinced they should remake their towns for what still feels like an unproven or overhyped technology.

“It’s like the Gilded Age, part two,” Olson said. “Only bigger.”



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The job market is so bad, people in their 40s are resorting to going back to school instead of looking for work

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This year’s job market has been bleak, to say the least. Layoffs hit the highest level in 14 years, job openings are barely budging, and quits figures are plummeting. It’s no wonder people feel stuck and discouraged—especially as many candidates have been on the job hunt for a year.

But some mid-career professionals are working with the cards they’ve been dealt by going back to school. Many are turning to data analytics, cybersecurity, AI-focused courses, health care, MBA programs, or trade certifications for an “immediate impact on their careers,” Metaintro CEO Lacey Kaelani told Fortune.

Metaintro is a job-search engine with 2 million active users that runs on open-source data processing more than 600 million jobs in real time.

“We absolutely see this trend [of adults going back to school] accelerating,” Kaelani said. “In combination with layoffs over the recent years plus the rise of required AI skills, experience is no longer enough.”

Kelsey Szamet, an employment attorney with Kingsley Szamet Employment Lawyers, said she’s noticed people over the age of 40 to go back to grad school or earn certifications.

While it’s not necessarily a completely new phenomenon, it’s becoming more frequently now that the job market is the pits. 

Still, Szamet he sees “very consistent” reasons for people considering higher education at a later stage in life. Some believe they’ve “plateaued” in their career and education is the only option. Others have been affected by layoffs, and there are some “who have simply become burned out with work and want a meaningful profession,” she told Fortune

“Then, too, come life circumstances. Some people have fewer responsibilities, better financial security, or a sense they will never make a change if they put it off now,” she said, adding she’s seeing more people pivot out of “dying industries,” those whose salaries have stagnated, or those who have job-security fears.  

According to Hanover Research, the top master’s degrees on the rise include artificial intelligence, mechatronics, robotics, automation engineering, research methodology, quantitative methods, as well as construction engineering technology. 

The cost of going back to school

Sometimes going back to school can also just feel like delaying the inevitable: student loans and other living costs. 

While grad school can certainly offer the opportunity to level-up your career once you’ve completed a program, it comes with financial and personal sacrifices, like time. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, one year of grad school, on average, costs about $43,000 in tuition. That’s nearly 70% the average salary in the U.S.

“Going to school can be very beneficial, but it can be very costly too,” Szamet said. And, when people are older and going back to school, they should consider “the cost of education and how stressful it can be to juggle work and family responsibilities with education.” Overall, “one ought to assess if it will be a good investment,” she added. 

That’s why it’s important to do your homework. Some degree programs have a better return-on-investment than others. According to an ROI analysis by the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, the median master’s degree increases lifetime earnings by $83,000, but some master’s degrees are worth more than $1 million. Computer science, engineering, and nursing are some of the highest-ROI master’s programs, with average ROIs of about $500,000, according to the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity analysis. 

Still, 40% of master’s degrees actually “have no net financial value at all,” according to the report.  

“In today’s job market, going back to school only works when it’s strategic and targeted [like a] specific technical certification in a high-demand field), but fails when it’s vague,” Kaelani emphasized. “It’s no longer ‘more education equals a better job.’”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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