Politics
Last Call for 11.3.26 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics
Last Call – A prime-time read on what’s happening in Florida politics.
— First Shot —
For days, one question hung over Florida’s turnout numbers: When would Republicans show up?
Turns out: today.
By 5 p.m., 1.06 million registered Republicans had voted on Election Day, compared with about 564,000 Democrats and 527,000 third- and no-party voters.
The resulting 497,584-ballot Republican advantage more than erased Democrats’ 157,914-ballot vote-by-mail lead and kept growing.
The cumulative electorate stood at 3.27 million Republicans to 2.65 million Democrats, a 626,640-vote gap. Including third- and no-party voters, the electorate was R+8.17.
Democrats did not have a bad turnout day. Far from it.
Nearly 64% of registered Democrats had voted, compared with 57.57% of Republicans. Democrats also requested more mail ballots and beat Republicans in return rate, producing a six-figure advantage by mail.
The blue team played about as well as it could. Republicans still had another gear.
The GOP began Tuesday about 129,000 ballots ahead of Democrats—compared with roughly 311,000 entering Election Day in 2022 and nearly 828,000 in 2024. By 5 p.m., however, their Election Day advantage had already exceeded the final Election Day margin from 2024. As a share of Tuesday’s turnout, Republicans led by more than 23 percentage points, roughly matching their nearly 24-point Election Day advantage four years ago.
The close is 2022-caliber. The final score probably won’t be.
The turnout file cannot answer the two questions likely to decide the race between Byron Donalds and David Jolly: How did third- and no-party voters break, and did Republican attrition substantially exceed Democratic attrition?
An October University of North Florida poll found Jolly winning 11% of registered Republicans while Donalds took 5% of Democrats. Jolly led 55% to 38% among third- and no-party voters. Nearly 1.75 million third- and no-party voters had cast ballots by 5 p.m.
An 11-to-5 crossover advantage and a double-digit edge outside the two parties could keep Jolly competitive. Anything substantially weaker leaves Florida’s Republican registration advantage doing the crushing.
Fortunately, the campaigns have already picked somewhere to celebrate—or recover. Here’s where Florida’s winners and losers will be drinking tonight.
By then, our undefeated advanced model should have settled the matter: The candidate with the most votes generally wins.
If Jolly’s crossover bet holds, we have a ballgame.
If it doesn’t, congratulations, Governor-elect Donalds.
— Evening Reads —
—“A guide to what we’ll know on Election Night, hour by hour” via Nate Cohn of The New York Times
—“Are polls overstating Democrats’ Midterm leads? Times pollsters weigh in.” via Patrick Healy, Nate Cohn and William P. Davis of The New York Times
—“Was Florida’s mid-decade redistricting a dummymander?” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
—“Polls show statewide tossups. Prediction markets suggest Florida GOP sweep.” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—“Florida turnout warning signs and the revenge of ‘Mr. Veto’” via Leigh Ann Caldwell and Marianna Sotomayor of Puck
—“Second Florida woman arrested over social media threats tied to Donald Trump’s Daytona Beach rally” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics
—“Judge appoints interim Pasco Sheriff near deadline for Ron DeSantis to name Chris Nocco replacement” via Tony Marrero of the Tampa Bay Times
—“Democrats hold ballot lead in Donald Trump’s home county of Palm Beach” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics
—“FSU research looks deeper at how divided politics can hurt business” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics
—“It’s not the party, it’s the after-party: Where 2026 campaigns are celebrating, or licking their wounds” via Fabrizio Gowdy of Florida Politics
— Quote of the Day —
“It would be sad if we lost seats because we did this change, but it would be a teachable moment.”
— An unnamed Republican consultant, on Florida’s mid-decade redistricting.
— Put it on the Tab —
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy-hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Pour Florida’s election supervisors a Dark ’n Stormy after flooding forced polling-place changes. The forecast didn’t need to take “Election Day chaos” literally.
Pour Ron DeSantis a Ward Eight for his congressional redraw. With both parties defending once-safe seats, the easiest constituency to please may have been the people selling political ads.
Pour Miami-Dade Democrats an Early Bird for their midday turnout lead despite the GOP’s registration edge. Republicans brought the bigger guest list; Democrats remembered to show up.
— Breakthrough Insights —
— Tune In —
Lightning try for seventh straight home win
The Tampa Bay Lightning look to remain perfect at home as they host the Detroit Red Wings tonight (7 p.m. ET, The Spot/ESPN+)
Tampa Bay (8-3-2) comes off a 5-4 shootout loss to Nashville and sits fourth in the NHL’s Eastern Conference’s Atlantic Division. The Lightning have won all six home games this season but have struggled on the road, with just two wins in seven.
Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning offense with 14 points, including three assists in the loss to Nashville. Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel provide scoring, as both players have a team-high eight goals this season. Tampa Bay has scored at least four goals in three straight games. The Red Wings will play without captain Dylan Larkin, who is serving a league suspension.
On defense, Victor Hedman and John Carlson anchor the top pairings and limit opposing chances. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start in goal for the Lightning. Vasilevskiy has historically performed well against Detroit, beating the Red Wings 19 times in 26 chances.
After tonight’s game, the Lightning will host the struggling Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday before hitting the road for the next four games.
___
Peter Schorsch publishes Last Call, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
The post Last Call for 11.3.26 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..