Politics
Jeff Brandes: How Amendment 3 could teach rural Florida to stop worrying and love the data center
In June, Jackson County went beyond a moratorium and banned data centers outright. Levy County is moving toward a one-year moratorium. Madison County adopted one in July.
Rural Florida is sending a pretty clear message about massive AI data centers: not here.
But Amendment 3 may introduce rural Florida to an equally powerful force of nature: MATH.
Amendment 3 doesn’t make data centers prettier, quieter or less thirsty. It makes saying no to them more expensive.
Florida’s Revenue Estimating Conference projects Amendment 3 will reduce local non-school property tax revenue by $4.95 billion in its first year. In year two, when the $250,000 homestead exemption kicks in, the hole jumps to $8.78 billion. Eventually, it approaches $12 billion annually and grows with inflation.
Sheriffs, firefighters and roads, unfortunately, have refused to become cheaper. The bills don’t disappear because the revenue does.
Here’s where Dr. Strangedata enters the story.
Amendment 3 increases the homestead exemption and tightens the annual assessment cap on non-homestead property from 10% to 5%. Both constrain revenue growth from property already on the tax rolls. New construction is different. It enters the rolls at full just value.
In other words, Tallahassee constrains the tax base you have. The obvious response is to build a bigger one.
And few things build one faster than a billion-dollar data center.
Consider Liberty County. The Florida Department of Revenue puts the entire county at roughly $1.1 billion in total property value and just $394 million in county taxable value.
A hypothetical $1 billion data center, if fully taxable, would be worth nearly as much as everything currently in Liberty County and more than two and a half times its existing taxable base.
Lafayette County is nearly identical. In Hamilton and Madison counties, a $1 billion project would equal roughly three-quarters of the existing county taxable base. Even in Jackson County, it would equal more than 40%.
Suddenly, those server racks start looking different.
Of course, data centers want incentives. That’s where Amendment 3 creates another unintended consequence.
A county that doesn’t need the project can negotiate. A county that needs it gets negotiated.
And when rural counties start competing for the same billion-dollar investment, remember President Muffley’s famous protest in Dr. Strangelove: “Gentlemen, you can’t fight in here! This is the War Room!”
Except they will be fighting. Over data centers.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has proposed greater state assistance for fiscally constrained counties after Amendment 3.
That presents rural Florida with a choice: grow your own tax base, or head to Tallahassee every year with a tin cup.
This is where supporters of Amendment 3 fundamentally misunderstand rural Florida.
These are proud, independent communities. They have spent generations fighting to control their land and their future. They aren’t going to willingly trade fiscal independence for an annual trip to Tallahassee asking for help.
Given the choice, I think many will choose independence.
And if that means turning pasture into server farms, “A Land Remembered” becomes “A Land Remembering.”
Which means the data centers they’re fighting today may become the projects they’re competing for tomorrow.
Today’s moratorium becomes tomorrow’s incentive package. Today’s zoning fight becomes tomorrow’s welcome mat.
Nobody has to change their mind about artificial intelligence. They just have to do the math.
Amendment 3 won’t make rural Florida love data centers.
But it may teach rural Florida to stop worrying and start competing for them.
___
Jeff Brandes is a former Florida state Senator and founder and president of the Florida Policy Project, a nonprofit organization focused on developing data-driven solutions to Florida’s most pressing policy challenges.
Ed. note: The Florida Policy Project is a strategic advertising partner of Extensive Enterprises, the holding company that owns Florida Politics.
The post Jeff Brandes: How Amendment 3 could teach rural Florida to stop worrying and love the data center appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..