Internal Brit Robinson poll suggests CD 4 Democratic Primary is far from settled

Just days after a poll showed L.J. Holloway with a 30-point lead in the Democratic Primary for Florida’s 4th Congressional District, a poll released by Brit Robinson tells a different story.

The survey found Holloway in the lead with 25%, Michael Kirwan at 13% support and Robinson at 11%, with a 2.9-percentage-point margin of error.

Critically, 51% of voters were still undecided with less than two months until the Aug. 18 Primary at the time of the survey.

Holloway performs best with Black voters, 40% of whom back Holloway and 52% are still undecided. Black voters make up 63% of the district’s Democratic electorate, but only constituted 50% of poll respondents.

A plurality of White voters, 23.5%, prefer Kirwan, while 18% back Robinson and 10.5% pick Holloway. Another 48% have yet to make up their mind.

The Robinson campaign released a statement claiming the poll results show a “highly competitive and volatile Democratic Primary,” and insisting that the race is still anyone’s to win.

The press release also touted the fact that Robinson, a Democratic Socialist and the youngest candidate in the race, leads voters under 40 in the poll. Among voters 18-40, 31% support Robinson, 17% choose Kirwan and 13% pick Holloway.

The survey of 1,133 registered Democrats in Clay, Duval and Nassau counties was conducted June 22.

The three candidates are competing for the chance to take on U.S. Rep. Aaron Bean, who was first elected to Congress four years ago. Holloway has been the Democratic nominee for the previous two cycles, losing to Bean by 21 points in 2022 and 14.6 points in 2024.

Kirwan has dominated his Democratic rivals in fundraising, raising $619,000 to Robinson’s $22,000 and Holloway’s $20,000, but has struggled to gain traction.

The eventual Democratic nominee will face a challenging General Election. The seat is rated “Safe R” by Cook Political Report, and Bean has $1.5 million in cash on hand.