Politics
Here’s Brunch, a pop-up, weekend email about the 2026 Election Cycle — 8.9.26
Good Sunday morning, and welcome back to “Brunch,” a pop-up newsletter about the 2026 Election Cycle and more.
There are 9 days until the Primary Election.
Let’s start the morning by wishing a belated happy birthday to our dear friend, Slater Bayliss. What do you get the guy who just sold his blue-chip firm to a global holding company? Also celebrating this weekend are former Sen. José Javier Rodríguez, Bill Coletti and the legendary Yolanda Cash Jackson of Becker.
Be sure to check out our choices for the Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics here.
If you’re in Tampa Bay, you may want to check out (and see me at) the LEGO Fan Expo, a kid-friendly convention and expo at the Florida State Fairgrounds featuring jumbo-sized LEGO displays, plus games, contests, build zones and more. The event starts at 10 a.m.
And with Election Day nearing, Election Night celebrations are back. Please email me at peter@floridapolitics.com to let us know your Election Night party plans for our Primary roundup column.
Now, enjoy Brunch!
— Economic edge —
Americans now trust Democrats over Republicans on the economy for the first time in nearly a decade, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
— The flip: Democrats hold a 37% to 36% edge on economic stewardship, a reversal after Republicans held the advantage through most of President Donald Trump’s first term, all of President Joe Biden’s tenure and into Trump’s second term.
— Approval slide: Trump’s approval rating fell to 35%, down from 37% last month and just a point above the lowest mark of his term.
— Congressional outlook: Registered voters favor Democrats 42% to 37% on a generic congressional ballot, with independents breaking for Democrats by 12 points.
— What’s driving it: Gasoline prices have surged more than 25% since the Iran war began, with the Republican economic edge steadily eroding as household finances have taken a hit.
The poll surveyed 4,505 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
— Line drawing and landmarks —
A new James Madison Institute poll finds Florida voters largely aware of the state’s congressional redistricting but not particularly moved by it heading into the 2026 elections.
— Aware but unmoved: 64% of voters know Florida redrew its congressional maps ahead of this year’s elections, though 51% say the new lines won’t affect their intent to vote.
— Partisan split: Views of the redrawn maps break along party lines, according to the survey conducted by Targoz Market Research.
— Looking forward: As the nation marks the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, 62% of Florida voters say they’re hopeful about America’s future.
— Rushmore results: Asked who should be added to Mount Rushmore, 79% of voters answered no one.
The survey of 1,400 registered Florida voters was conducted July 20-26, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.62%.
— Opening salvo —
Byron Donalds’ campaign released its first major attack ad of the presumptive General Election matchup, targeting Democratic rival David Jolly over transgender issues.
— The ad: The spot splices together Jolly clips on LGBTQ+ murals, gender-affirming care and transgender youth in sports, closing with Donalds declaring, “The only way you defeat crazy is you stand up to it.”
— The framing: The ad brands Jolly “radically liberal, radically wrong” under the tagline “Florida Kids First.”
— Jolly’s first response: Jolly noted Donalds skipped over the economy entirely, saying the ad never mentions housing, healthcare, food or gas costs, and pledged to focus his own campaign on affordability. He also accused Donalds of funding a $25 million ad campaign with money from “Big Tech, private equity, insurance and utility companies” to distract from three decades of Republican control driving up costs for working Floridians.
— The bigger picture: The spot marks an early opening shot in a race both parties see as pivotal, with Donalds being the prohibitive favorite in the GOP Primary and Jolly widely expected to win the Democratic nomination.
— Coming home —
Donalds will hold a “Hometown Get Out the Vote Rally” in Naples, his home turf, ahead of the Primary.
— Save the date: The rally runs on Wednesday, Aug. 12, at 5 p.m., with doors opening at 4:15 p.m.
— Find the spot: The event takes place at VFW Post 7721, 800 Neffs Way, Naples.
— RSVP details: Interested supporters can sign up at ByronDonalds.com/NaplesGOTV.
— Butler’s bid —
Ben Butler is statistically tied for the lead in Florida’s 9th Congressional District GOP Primary, according to new polling from Victory Insights, despite being significantly outspent by his rivals.
— Close contest: Jorge Martinez has a narrow edge at 14.2%, with Butler and Thomas Chalifoux each at 13.8% and Dan Green at 11.6% — all within the poll’s margin of error.
— Down on the farm: A ninth-generation Floridian and Okeechobee cattle rancher, Butler has campaigned on the message “Send a Farmer to Congress,” a background his campaign says wasn’t manufactured for the race.
— Undecided harvest: With 40.9% of voters still undecided, Butler’s campaign notes that he holds 14% positive name identification among that group, ahead of both Martinez and Chalifoux.
— Cultivating credentials: Butler has served on the South Florida Water Management District Governing Board under three Gov. Ron DeSantis appointments and previously led the Florida FFA as its state president.
— Plowing ahead: Butler’s campaign says it plans to spend the race’s final days maximizing turnout in his strongest areas while competing hard for the large pool of undecided voters.
The winner of the Primary will face Democratic U.S. Rep. Darren Soto in a District Trump carried by more than 58% in 2024.
— Neck and neck —
Jim Schwartzel and Catalina Lauf are locked in a dead heat for the Republican Primary to succeed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds in Congress, according to new Victory Insights polling.
— Down to the decimal: Schwartzel, Sun Broadcasting President, edges Lauf 19.1% to 18.9%, with former Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis trailing at nearly 12%.
— Rapid riser: Lauf, a former Commerce Department adviser, has surged from 5% to 19% support since June, jumping from fourth place to second on the strength of MAGA Republican voters.
— Historical parallel: Pollsters compared Lauf’s late rise to Donalds’ own surge in the 2020 CD 19 Primary, though they cautioned 11 days remain enough time for the race to shift again.
— Wide-open field: With 25% of voters still undecided and no candidate above 20%, the memo says the race “remains winnable for any of the serious contenders.”
The poll was part of a broader trove of Victory Insights surveys on competitive Republican congressional Primaries.
— Keiser out front —
Belinda Keiser leads a crowded Republican field in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, edging out her closest rivals in a new poll from Victory Insights.
— Leading the pack: Keiser posts 13.6% support, narrowly ahead of Casey Askar at 13.1% and Michael Carbonara at 11.4%.
— Room to run: With 41% of voters still undecided, Keiser has room to grow, positioning her well as the race tightens.
— Rest of the field: David Burck and Terri Hasdorff trail further back at 8.7% and 5.6%, respectively.
The poll surveyed likely Republican Primary voters Aug. 4-6 and was not commissioned by any candidate or committee.
— Crypto crackdown —
Oliver Gilbert’s campaign for Florida’s 24th Congressional District says tech and crypto billionaires aligned with Trump are spending nearly $1 million attacking his candidacy, flooding Miami television with more than 300 spots since Aug. 5.
— Follow the money: Per Gilbert, the ads come from Protect Progress, which receives 97% of its funding from Fairshake, a crypto industry super PAC backed by Coinbase, Ripple and Silicon Valley billionaires who also backed Trump’s inauguration.
— A family tie: Kendrick Meek Sr., father of rival CD 24 candidate Kendrick Meek Jr., sits on Coinbase’s Global Advisory Board.
— His response: “I am not for sale,” Gilbert said, arguing that tech billionaires “want to buy a Congressman.”
— Bigger pattern: Fairshake-aligned groups have spent similarly large sums against Democrats elsewhere this cycle, including $1.5 million opposing U.S. Rep. Al Green of Texas over his votes against crypto legislation.
— Cash and carry —
U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz heads into the final 10 days of the CD 25 Democratic Primary with an 11-to-1 cash advantage over challenger Oliver Larkin.
— By the numbers: Moskowitz reported $1,882,634 cash on hand compared to Larkin’s $169,741, according to campaign finance reports released Friday.
— Polling gap too: A July 31 Beacon Insights tracking survey found Moskowitz leading 56% to 20%, a spread that’s grown from a 32-point edge in June.
— Ground game vs. war chest: Larkin, a Democratic Socialist and first-time candidate, has knocked on more than 30,000 doors and raised roughly $550,000, nearly all from individual donors, but his poll numbers have barely budged.
— GOP watching closely: Republican operatives told Florida Politics they’re eager to face “full-blown crazies” if Democratic Socialists start winning Florida Primaries.
— Development dollars —
Friends of Jennifer Winkler, a political committee backing the House District 74 candidate, released a new ad attacking rival Kelly Ann Walker over developer funding in the crowded Republican Primary.
— The attack: The ad brands the 24-year-old Walker as “Instagram famous” and accuses her of taking more than $100,000 from developers and builders while Sarasota County “gets paved over.”
— The framing: The spot casts Walker as “young, naïve, exactly who they want,” arguing developers are funding her political rise in exchange for favorable votes.
— The race: Winkler, an insurance agency owner, and Walker are among five Republicans competing for the open seat being vacated by term-limited Rep. James Buchanan, alongside Chris Felder, Les Nichols and Venice Mayor Nick Pachota.
— Walker’s standing: Walker has built one of the field’s largest war chests and has earned an endorsement from Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson.
The Primary winner is heavily favored in a District Trump carried by more than 62% in 2024.
— Brunching out —
To find the best homemade bagels in Tallahassee, stop by a new food truck (more of a food trailer) called The Right Way Breakfast Co., parked on Capital Circle.
— Backstory: Siblings Tracey and Cornelius Masterson grew up in the restaurant and hospitality business in New Jersey. They worked summers in their Uncle Vinny’s pizzeria, Cammarata’s, in Livingston, New Jersey, where they rolled dough and made meatballs. For The Right Way, the Masterson siblings proof their dough the night before and come in at 3:45 a.m. to boil and bake their bagels. Tracey does the cooking while Cornelius takes care of orders and coffee, sometimes with help from their dad, also Cornelius. The siblings both still work second jobs. Their slogan is “Serious Breakfast. Not-so serious people.”
— The setting: The Mastersons prefer to call their trailer a café on wheels, which they launched on July 6. It’s parked outside Momentum Fitness, where Tracey has worked as a trainer. They have a few tables and chairs in front of the truck, but most customers do take out. Arrive early because The Right Way is already a hit, and some favorites could be sold out early.
— The menu: The Right Way serves four breakfast sandwiches on homemade rolls or bagels. Bagel choices are plain, Everything, Sesame and Cheddar. If you’re from the northeastern U.S., you’re likely familiar with pork roll or Taylor ham. The generous Right Way Sandwich packs in slices of flavorful pork roll, Cheddar cheese and two fried eggs, which we had on an outstanding plain bagel. We also got The Classic Way with bacon, eggs and cheese on an Everything roll, soft and chewy. These are not like the prepared breakfast sandwiches you find at fast food places. You can also order bagels with schmears: plain, blueberry lemon, strawberry, cinnamon swirl or “lox and loaded” (with lox, capers and red onions).
— Beverages: The Right Way serves a variety of hot and cold coffee drinks, including lattes or cappuccinos. Their syrups are made in small batches from the organic company Holy Kakow, and they’re dairy-, gluten- and preservative-free.
— Details: The Right Way trailer is outside Momentum Fitness in the Momentum Plaza at 2655 Capital Circle NE; 609-233-7296; rightwaybreakfastco.com. Hours: 7 a.m. to noon Tuesday to Thursday (or Friday). Check their Facebook or Instagram page for their schedule.
The post Here’s Brunch, a pop-up, weekend email about the 2026 Election Cycle — 8.9.26 appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..