Here’s Brunch, a pop-up, weekend email about the 2026 Election Cycle — 7.26.26

Good Sunday morning, and welcome back to “Brunch,” a pop-up newsletter about the 2026 Election Cycle and more.

Let’s start the morning by wishing a happy birthday to former House Speaker Steve Crisafulli and our friend Pete Murray. Belated best wishes to Rep. JJ Grow.

Be sure to check out our choices for the Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics here.

SPOTTED at the White House Correspondents Dinner on Friday night: Brian Ballard at The Wall Street Journal’s table; Natalie Kato, who was the +1 of Los Angeles Times reporter Ana Ceballos; and Capitol Press Corps alum Marc Caputo and Alex Leary.

SPOTTED at the MO Lounge at Mandarin Oriental in NYC: EmmaLea and Alex Haley; and at The Plaza: Christina and Ben Diamond.

Now, enjoy Brunch!

— Yes, we Ken! —

Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds crossed the nine-figure mark in fundraising as of the week ending July 17, with Citadel’s Ken Griffin’s $10 million donation making the difference.

— He picks winners: Griffin’s donation carries a symbolic weight, given that the financier has a history of heavily backing candidates and causes in which he believes. He gave a super PAC supporting Sen. Ashley Moody $2.5 million this month, was a big backer of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ re-election campaign, and helped fund the defeat of 2024’s adult use marijuana amendment.

— Hurtling toward obsolescence: Donalds’ major opponents can’t keep up. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins raised a little more than $75,000 between his campaign account and political committee, leaving him roughly $900,000 cash on hand. Former House Speaker Paul Renner raised nearly $40,000 during the week, leaving him roughly $1.5 million to spend. James Fishback raised more than $113,000 last week, but the bulk of that came from someone targeted some years back in a Russian influence scheme, according to the Wall Street Journal.

— Jolly time: Donalds’ likely Democratic opponent is miles behind him. David Jolly raised roughly $9 million this cycle and retained nearly $3.5 million as of July 17. That said, the former Republican Congressman is polling competitively, and Larry Sabato upgraded Jolly’s chance to win this week, though the race is still deemed “likely Republican.”

>>> Donalds said Friday, “I’m going to be all over the state of Florida every single day campaigning and working hard.“

— Doral dream stop —

Gubernatorial candidate Donalds will bring his “Defending the Florida Dream Tour” to Doral on Monday, joined by U.S. Sen. Rick Scott and Doral Mayor Christi Fraga.

— Roll call: The event takes place at El Arepazo, 10191 NW 58th Street, Doral.

— Timing: Media check-in begins at 10 a.m., with the event kicking off at 10:30 a.m. Monday, July 27.

— RSVP details: Those interested can contact [email protected].

— Closing stretch: Donalds is looking to cement his status as the GOP front-runner ahead of next month’s Primary.

— Brit pop —

An internal poll from Democrat Brit Robinson’s campaign says the Primary race in Northeast Florida’s 4th Congressional District is up for grabs in what is being called a “highly competitive and volatile Democratic Primary.”

— Tighter than some thought: two-time nominee L.J. Holloway, who a Tyson Group poll this month showed with a 30+ point lead, is up here too, but by a smaller margin. She has 25% support, followed by former Jacksonville Ethics Commission Chair Michael Kirwan at 13% and Democratic Socialist Robinson at 11%.

— Fatal flaw: Holloway performs best among Black voters — 40% back her, while 52% remain undecided. Black voters make up 63% of the District’s Democratic electorate but accounted for only 50% of poll respondents, meaning the survey may understate her overall support.

— Youth gone wild: Robinson’s path forward depends on her ability to turn out younger voters, which might be aided by local candidate Angie Nixon being on the same ballot in the U.S. Senate Primary. Robinson leads among voters ages 18-40 with 31% support, ahead of Kirwan at 17% and Holloway at 13%.

— Don’t count Kirwan out: He’s by far the strongest fundraiser in the field, having raised nearly $720,000 to date. Robinson has raised less than $30,000 and Holloway a bit more than $20,000. The Riverside resident is the overwhelming establishment choice, with the Jacksonville Association of Fire Fighters and Sen. Tracie Davis behind him. And he’s the only candidate with an ad buy, rolling out digital spots featuring endorsers this week.

— Chamber’s choice —

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will formally endorse Republican U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis for re-election at a Tampa event this week.

— Why him: The endorsement recognizes Bilirakis’s record on strengthening the economy, supporting small businesses and promoting job creation.

— Save the spot: The announcement takes place Monday at noon at Bad Monkey, 1717 E. 7th Ave., Tampa.

— Small business tie-in: Bad Monkey is a veteran-owned business and member of the Ybor City Chamber of Commerce.

— RSVP details: Those interested can contact Summer Blevins at [email protected].

— Shepherding Shev —

Miami-Dade County Vice Chair Kionne McGhee is backing former Florida House colleague Shevrin Jones for Congress, sealing the endorsement with a shared recitation of Psalm 23 in a Facebook video.

— Old Testament, old times: The pair recalled reciting the psalm together before House floor sessions during their time serving in Tallahassee.

— The race: Jones, a state Senator from Miami Gardens, is running for the open seat in Florida’s 24th Congressional District, which is being vacated by retiring U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson, facing a crowded Democratic field that includes Miami-Dade Commissioner Oliver Gilbert and former Commissioner Jean Monestime.

— Countdown mode: Jones said with 25 days left in the race, his campaign is focused on cutting through misinformation and outside spending as it pushes toward the finish line.

To watch the ad, click the image below:

— Nurses make the rounds — 

Florida’s nurses have completed their 2026 electoral rounds, prescribing endorsements for 26 legislative candidates across both chambers.

— The diagnosis: The Florida Nurses Association and its political arm, the Florida Nurses Political Action Committee, endorsed candidates in 19 House races and seven Senate contests.

— The organization said its selections reflect a commitment to nursing practice, patient safety and healthcare quality. FNA represents registered nurses, advanced practice registered nurses, clinical nurse specialists, nurse educators and nurse executives across Florida.

— Willa Hill, executive director of the Florida Nurses Association, says, “Every day, lawmakers make decisions that directly affect nurses and the patients they serve. “These endorsements represent candidates who have demonstrated a commitment to supporting nursing practice, protecting patient safety, and advancing a healthy Florida. We are proud to stand behind each of these individuals as they seek to serve their communities.”

— House calls: The House slate includes Rep. Michelle Salzman in HD 1, Jon Fay in HD 2, Tricia Berry in HD 6, Chase Brannon in HD 10, Terrance Freeman in HD 12, Rep. Chad Johnson in HD 22, Rep. JJ Grow in HD 23, Rep. Bill Partington in HD 28 and Rep. Erika Booth in HD 35.

— Also getting the nurses’ seal of approval are Emily Duda Buckley in HD 38, Samuel Vilchez Santiago in HD 43, Rep. Jennifer Kincart Jonsson in HD 49, Rep. Vanessa Oliver in HD 76, Susan Frantz in HD 78, Eric Stelnicki in HD 100, Rep. Robin Bartleman in HD 103, Bruno Barriero in HD 113, Ashley Perez-Biliskov in HD 116 and Rep. Mike Redondo in HD 118.

— Senate shift: Across the rotunda, FNPAC is endorsing Sen. Jay Trumbull in SD 2, Jake Johansson in SD 8, Sen. Jason Brodeur in SD 10, Sen. Brian Nathan in SD 14, Sen. Jim Boyd in SD 20, Rep. Ashley Gantt in SD 34 and Sen. Ana Maria Rodriguez in SD 40.

— Field fundraiser —

Rep. Anne Gerwig’s House District 93 re-election campaign is hosting a lunch fundraiser with agricultural leaders next week.

— Mark it down: The event begins Wednesday at noon at 651 NW 9th Street, Belle Glade.

— Buy-in: The minimum contribution is $500, with checks of $1,000 or less payable to the Anne Gerwig Campaign and larger checks payable to Friends of Anne Gerwig.

— Her path: Gerwig, a Republican who previously served as Wellington’s Mayor from 2016 to 2024, won the District 93 seat in 2024 after a recount confirmed her narrow victory over then-Democratic Rep. Katherine Waldron.

— The race ahead: Gerwig faces Democrat August Mangeney in the 2026 Election.

— Debate stage set —

Tiger Bay Club of Central Florida will host an Orange County mayoral debate featuring four candidates this week.

— On the ballot: Stephanie Murphy, Mayra Uribe, Tiffany Moore Russell and Chris Messina are set to appear.

— Behind the mic: WESH 2’s Greg Fox and Nancy Alvarez will moderate the debate.

— Mark it down: The event runs Friday, July 31, from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. at the Orlando Regional Realtor Association, 5421 Diplomat Circle, Orlando.

— Fine print: Lunch will be served; tickets are free for Tiger Bay members and $60 plus a processing fee for non-members, with sales closing Monday at 5 p.m.

The debate is co-hosted with Business Force and the Orlando Regional Realtor Association.

— Choosing Charlie —

Former Miami Beach Mayor and state Sen. Dan Gelber is endorsing Charlie Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor, citing their shared history in Tallahassee.

— Working together: Gelber said he served alongside Crist when Crist was Governor, watching him unite both parties to address windstorm insurance rates.

— Tax relief: He credited Crist with leading an effort to lower property taxes, resulting in tax portability that keeps people from being trapped in their homes.

— Standing firm: Gelber recalled Crist ordering polling places to stay open against his own party’s wishes so voters wouldn’t face long lines.

— The verdict: “As a former Mayor myself, I think St. Petersburg could do no better than Charlie Crist,” Gelber said.

— Camp is calling —

All three Florida NFL teams open training camps to the public next week, with rookies and veterans reporting ahead of preseason play.

— Dolphins: Veterans report Tuesday, July 28, with the first of nine open practices set for 9:30 a.m. Sunday, Aug. 2, at the Baptist Health Training Complex.

— Jaguars: The first public practice runs Wednesday, July 29, at 8:30 a.m. at the Miller Electric Center, with joint sessions against the Panthers and Buccaneers later in August.

— Buccaneers: Camp opens to the general public July 30 at the AdventHealth Training Center, with additional open sessions Aug. 6 and 7.

— Kickoff countdown: All three teams open the regular season Sept. 13 — the Dolphins at the Raiders, the Jaguars hosting the Browns and the Buccaneers at the Bengals.

— Prix fixe pleasure —

Hayward House is joining Tallahassee Restaurant Week with a $55 prix fixe menu running July 17-26.

— Starting strong: Diners can choose between burrata and peaches or crispy pork belly to open the meal.

— Main event: Entrée options include jerk snapper, herb-crusted lamb chops, chicken mole or braised short ribs.

— Sweet finish: The menu wraps with a choice of gooey butter cake or Biscoff banoffee pie.

— Fine print: The deal is dine-in only, with no substitutions, sharing or combining with other offers.

The restaurant is located at 228 South Adams Street; reservations can be made at haywardhousetlh.com.