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Powell ‘holds the key’ to the next Fed rate move as divided policymakers will likely fail to reach a consensus again, JPMorgan says

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A consensus view on Wall Street for a rate cut next month doesn’t mean there will be a consensus on the Federal Reserve as policymakers still appear divided.

In his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, Chairman Jerome Powell opened the door to a rate cut at the central bank’s meeting in September after months of maintaining a more hawkish stance, stoking a furious rally on Wall Street.

His emphasis on growing risks to the labor market coupled with a more muted warning on the inflationary impact of tariffs marked a shift in his tone. But not everyone on the Federal Open Market Committee sounded as dovish, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid.

That sets up another FOMC meeting with dissenting votes, after two policymakers voted to lower rates last time, going against the majority that kept rates steady.

While Powell counts as one vote on the FOMC, he carries outsized influence as the chairman and could prove to be decisive in another split vote.

“Guidance from a range of Fed speakers was mixed this week, while the July minutes struck a modestly hawkish tone,” JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman wrote in a note on Friday. “A consensus decision in September looks unlikely, and it is Chair Powell who holds the key to the meeting’s outcome.”

Another contested meeting would mark further deviation from the Fed’s traditional consensus-driven, decision-making process, which typically results in unanimous votes.

But future meetings could see continued division as hawks point to inflation still running above the Fed’s 2% target and other economic data signaling resilience. Indeed, the composition of the Fed is in flux, potentially leading to more push and pull among policymakers.

Stephen Miran, who has previously blasted the Fed’s consensus-based approach, is set to join the board of governors and add to the dovish votes. Meanwhile, Powell’s term as chair expires in May, and President Donald Trump has threatened to fire Governor Lisa Cook if she doesn’t resign.

Outlook for Fed rate cut cycle

And even if the Fed lowers rates next month, the pace of future cuts isn’t clear, providing more fodder for debate at the central bank as Trump-appointed officials push for dovish policy.

Some Wall Street analysts don’t see an aggressive easing cycle on the horizon, and Powell indicated any rate cuts would happen in a cautious manner.

“This message may not be welcomed by an administration looking for immediate aggressive easing,” JPMorgan said.

Capital Economics chief markets economist John Higgins said in a note Friday that Powell “poured three cups of cold water” on hopes for a major loosening of Fed policy.

They include indications that the current rate is only modestly restrictive, that the neutral level may be higher than in the 2010s, and that a revised policy framework would return to a more symmetric approach to upside and downside inflation risks.

Similarly, Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said a rate cut in September would be more akin to an “insurance” move as Powell has previously vowed not to be late on labor market signals.

In fact, his stance veers away from others at the Fed as he puts greater emphasis on the employment side of the dual mandate while tariffs are expected to cause a short-lived bump in inflation.

“Powell appears to be setting the stage, assuming the economy performs as he expects and risks do not change appreciably, for a gradual approach to normalizing interest rates,” Sweet said in a note. “In other words, one cut at every other remaining meeting this year.”

Introducing the 2025 Fortune Global 500, the definitive ranking of the biggest companies in the world. Explore this year’s list.



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The workforce is becoming AI-native. Leadership has to evolve

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One of the most insightful conversations I have had recently about artificial intelligence was not with policymakers or peers. It was with a group of Nokia early-careers talents in their early 20s. What stood out was their impatience. They wanted to move faster in using AI to strengthen their innovation capabilities. 

That makes perfect sense. This generation began university when ChatGPT launched in 2022. They now account for roughly half of all ChatGPT usage, applying it to everything from research to better decision-making in knowledge-intensive work. 

Some people worry that AI-driven hiring slowdowns are disproportionately impacting younger workers. Yet the greater opportunity lies in a new generation of AI-native professionals entering the workforce equipped for how technology is transforming roles, teams, and leadership.

Better human connectivity 

One of the first tangible benefits of generative AI is that it allows individual contributors to take on tasks once handled by managers. Research by Harvard Business School found that access to Copilot increased employee productivity by 5% in core tasks. As productivity rises and hierarchies flatten, early-career employees using AI are empowered to focus on outcomes, learn faster, and contribute at a higher level.

Yet personal productivity is not the real measure of progress. What matters most is how well teams perform together. Individual AI gains only create business impact when they align with team goals and that requires greater transparency, alignment, and accountability.

At Nokia, we ensure that everyone has clear, measurable goals that support their teams’ objectives. Leaders need to be open about their goals to their managers and to their reports. And everyone means everyone. Me included. That way goals are not only about recognition and reward. They become an ongoing dialogue between leaders and their teams. It’s how we’re building a continuous learning culture that thrives on feedback and agility, both essential in the AI era. 

Humans empowered with AI, not humans versus AI

AI’s true power lies in augmenting human skills. Every role has a core purpose – whether in strategy, creativity, or technical problem-solving – and AI helps people focus on that. 

During the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 60 chatbots were deployed in 30 countries to handle routine public health queries, freeing up healthcare workers to focus on critical patient care. Most health services never looked back. 

The same pattern applies inside companies. Some of the routine tasks given to new hires are drudge work and not a learning experience. AI gives us a chance to rethink the onboarding, training, and career development process.

Take an early-career engineer. Onboarding can be a slow process of documentation and waiting for reviews. AI can act as an always-on coach that gives quick guidance and helps people ramp up. Mentors then spend less time on the basics and more time helping engineers solve real problems. Engineers can also have smart agents testing their designs, ideas, and simulating potential outcomes. In this way, AI strengthens, rather than substitutes, the human connection between junior engineers and their mentors and helps unlock potential faster.

Encourage experimentation and entrepreneurship 

During two decades of the Internet Supercycle (1998-2018), start-ups created trillions of dollars in economic value and roughly half of all new jobs in OECD countries

As AI lowers the barriers to launching and scaling ventures, established companies must find new ways to encourage experimentation, nurture innovation through rapid iterations, and give employees the chance to commercialize and scale their ideas.

There is a generational shift that increases the urgency: more than 60% of Gen Z Europeans hope to start their own businesses within five years, according to one survey. To secure this talent, large organizations must provide the attributes that make entrepreneurship attractive. Empowering people with agility, autonomy, and faster decision-making creates an edge in attracting and keeping top talent.

At Nokia, our Technology and AI Organization is designed to strengthen innovation capabilities, encourage entrepreneurial thinking, and give teams the support to turn ideas into real outcomes.

More coaching, less managing 

Sporting analogies are often overused in business as the two worlds don’t perfectly align, yet the evolution of leadership in elite football offers useful lessons. Traditionally, managers oversaw everything on and off the pitch. Today, head coaches focus on building the right team and culture to win. 

Luis Enrique, the manager of Paris-St. Germain football club, last season’s UEFA Champion’s League winner, exemplifies this shift. He transformed a team of stars into a star team, while also evolving his coaching style, elevating both individual and collective potential.

Of course, CEOs must switch between both roles (as I said, the worlds don’t perfectly align) – setting vision and strategy while also cultivating the right team and culture to succeed. AI can help leaders do both with more focus. It gives us quicker insight into what is working, what is not, and where teams need support.

I have been testing these tools with my own leadership team. We are using generative AI to help us evaluate our decisions and to understand how we work together. It has revealed patterns we might have missed, and it has helped us get to the real issues faster. It does not replace judgment or experience. It supports them.

Yet the core of leadership does not change. AI cannot build trust. It cannot set expectations. It cannot create a culture that learns, improves, and takes responsibility. That still comes from people. And in a world shaped by AI, the leaders who succeed will be the ones who coach, who listen, and who help teams move faster with confidence.

Nokia’s technology connects intelligence around the world. Inside the company, connecting intelligence is about how people work together. It means giving teams the tools, support and culture they need to grow and perform with confidence. Connecting intelligence is how teams win.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.



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Procurement execs often don’t understand the value of good design, experts say

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Behind every intricately designed hotel or restaurant is a symbiotic collaboration between designer and maker.

But in reality, firms want to build more with less—and even though visions are created by designers, they don’t always get to see them to fruition. Instead, intermediaries may be placed in charge of procurements and overseeing the financial costs of executing designs.

“The process is not often as linear as we [designers] would like it to be, and at times we even get slightly cut out, and something comes out on the other side that wasn’t really what we were expecting,” said Tina Norden, a partner and principal at design firm Conran and Partners, at the Fortune Brainstorm Design forum in Macau on Dec. 2.

“To have a better quality product, communication is very much needed,” added Daisuke Hironaka, the CEO of Stellar Works, a furniture company based in Shanghai. 

Yet those tasked with procurement are often “money people” who may not value good design—instead forsaking it to cut costs. More education on the business value of quality design is needed, Norden argued.

When one builds something, she said, there are both capital investment and a lifecycle cost. “If you’re spending a bit more money on good quality furniture, flooring, whatever it might be, arguably, it should last a lot longer, and so it’s much better value.”

Investing in well-designed products is also better for the environment, Norden added, as they don’t have to be replaced as quickly.

Attempts to cut costs may also backfire in the long run, said Hironaka, as business owners may have to foot higher maintenance bills if products are of poor design and make.

AI in interior and furniture design

Though designers have largely been slow adopters of AI, some luminaries like Daisuke are attempting to integrate it into their team’s workflow.

AI can help accelerate the process of designing bespoke furniture, Daisuke explained, especially for large-scale projects like hotels. 

A team may take a month to 45 days to create drawings for 200 pieces of custom-made furniture, the designer said, but AI can speed up this process. “We designed a lot in the past, and if AI can use these archives, study [them] and help to do the engineering, that makes it more helpful for designers.” 

Yet designers can rest easy as AI won’t ever be able to replace the human touch they bring, Norden said. 

“There is something about the human touch, and about understanding how we like to use our spaces, how we enjoy space, how we perceive spaces, that will always be there—but AI should be something that can assist us [in] getting to that point quicker.”

She added that creatives can instead view AI as a tool for tasks that are time-consuming but “don’t need ultimate creativity,” like researching and three-dimensionalizing designs.

“As designers, we like to procrastinate and think about things for a very long time to get them just right, [but] we can get some help in doing things faster.”



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Binance has been proudly nomadic for years. A new announcement suggests it’s chosen an HQ

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For years, Binance has dodged questions about where it plans to establish a corporate headquarters. On Monday, the world’s largest crypto exchange made an announcement that indicates it has chosen a location: Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

In its announcement, Binance reported that it has secured three global financial licenses within Abu Dhabi Global Market, a special economic zone inside the Emirati city. The licenses regulate three different prongs of the exchange’s business: its exchange, clearinghouse, and broker dealer services. The three regulated entities are named Nest Exchange Limited, Nest Clearing and Custody Limited, and Nest Trading Limited, respectively.

Richard Teng, the co-CEO of Binance, declined to say whether Abu Dhabi is now Binance’s global headquarters. “But for all intents and purposes, if you look at the regulatory sphere, I think the global regulators are more concerned of where we are regulated on a global basis,” he said, adding that Abu Dhabi Global Market is where his crypto exchange’s “global platform” will be governed.

A company spokesperson declined to add more to Teng’s comments, but did not deny Fortune’s assertion that Binance appears to have chosen Abu Dhabai as its headquarters.

Corporate governance

The Abu Dhabi announcement suggests that Binance, which has for years taken pride in branding itself as a company with no fixed location, is bowing to the practical considerations that go with being a major financial firm—and the corporate governance obligations that entails.

When Changpeng Zhao, the cofounder and former CEO of Binance, launched the company in 2017, he initially established the exchange in Hong Kong. But, weeks after he registered Binance in the city, China banned cryptocurrency trading, and Zhao moved his nascent trading platform. Binance has since been itinerant. “Wherever I sit is going to be the Binance office,” Zhao said in 2020.

The location of a company’s headquarters impacts its tax obligations and what regulations it needs to follow. In 2023, after Binance reached a landmark $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, Zhao stepped down as CEO and pleaded guilty to failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program.

Teng took over and promised to implement the corporate structures—like a board of directors—that are the norm for companies of Binance’s size. Teng, who now shares the CEO role with the newly appointed Yi He, oversaw the appointment of Binance’s first board in April 2024. And he’s repeatedly telegraphed that his crypto exchange is focused on regulatory compliance.

Binance already has a strong footprint in the Emirates. It has a crypto license in Dubai, received a $2 billion investment from an Emirati venture fund in March, and, that same month, said it employed 1,000 employees in the country. 



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