U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz enters the Democratic Primary in the newly drawn Florida’s 25th Congressional District from a commanding position, according to a new survey that hands him a 32-point lead and outright majority support.
The Beacon Insights poll gives Moskowitz 51% of likely Democratic Primary voters, compared to 19% for Oliver Larkin, with 30% undecided. That clears the majority threshold on the initial ballot and gives Moskowitz a better than 2-to-1 advantage over his nearest opponent.
The numbers point to a Primary electorate already consolidating behind Moskowitz as Democrats hunt for the strongest possible nominee in one of the country’s marquee battlegrounds.
Florida’s redrawn CD 25 — a coastal seat stretching from Delray Beach to Miami Beach — was carried by Donald Trump by 9 points in 2024 after Ron DeSantis signed a new map that flipped the district from Democratic-leaning to Republican turf. It is widely expected to be among the most competitive races in the nation.
Electability is driving that consolidation. Nearly two-thirds of voters (64%) say they would rather back the Democrat with the best chance of defeating the Republican nominee, while 31% say they prefer the Democrat who shares their values most. Five percent were undecided.
For Moskowitz, the findings reinforce the case he has made since pivoting into the seat after redistricting: that a proven, electable Democrat gives the party its best shot at holding the line in November.
The survey was conducted via SMS among 728 likely Democratic Primary voters in CD 25 from June 25-26. Results were weighted by gender, age and race/ethnicity using iterative proportional fitting (raking) to match the demographic composition of the target population. The sample yields a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.
