Connect with us

Business

Zonda’s chief economist never thought Trump, the only real estate mogul-turned-president, would place tariffs on building materials when housing is already so unaffordable. She was wrong

Published

on



  • The housing world is in for another lackluster spring selling season as tariff fears and more weigh on homebuilders and would-be buyers. The wealthy are the only silver lining in the housing market—and even that may change.

Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf felt optimistic about one thing in particular when President Donald Trump was elected: He understood real estate. So when homebuilders asked her about tariffs in January, she told them she couldn’t imagine a real-estate-savvy president would place taxes on building materials when housing is so unaffordable for many Americans, something he promised to fix on the campaign trail. Then, in March, Trump did exactly that, placing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Tariffs on imported lumber could come in April.

“I was wrong,” Wolf told Fortune.

In a matter of months, Wolf went from feeling somewhat hopeful about the housing market when it comes to builders, buyers, and sales, to gloomy. She still believes the housing world is fine. It won’t burst into flames. But she does have her concerns. And the policy whirlwind America is caught in is mostly to blame. 

Zonda’s surveys routinely ask builders what’s holding buyers back. In March, builders said affordability, which has been the top answer for a while because home prices increased 45% in the past five years and mortgage rates are a far cry away from their pandemic lows. The next answer: Would-be buyers are sitting on the sidelines because there is no rush to buy. The third answer, however, is one Wolf hasn’t seen in a very long time: Consumers are concerned about the economy, jobs, and their visa status. 

“It’s freaking people out,” Wolf said of uncertainty. 

Earlier this month, the S&P 500 slipped into correction territory on the back of on-again, off-again tariffs, and there are mass layoffs occurring in the federal government, so consumer sentiment is plummeting as a result. In housing, it’s tariff and immigration policy that keeps people on their toes. 

“We’re very worried about tariffs,” Wolf said, because they can induce higher costs and have done so in the past. 

Tariffs are a tax on imported goods, so builders see an extra cost on products they tend to purchase from other countries. If they shift their supply chains to buy locally, it’ll cost them, too, because goods produced in the U.S. aren’t as cheap. In either scenario, the expectation is builders will pass on the additional costs to buyers. So far, the Trump administration has either threatened, plans to, or placed tariffs on lumber, aluminum, and steel—all used in the construction of homes. More than half of builders in the latest survey said the total cost of building a home is higher than last year. And still, there is a fear that tariff pain might not be totally felt until next year, potentially in a worsening economy, Wolf said. 

When it comes to immigration, builders have not seen a substantial change to their construction workforce at this point, despite promises of mass deportations made by the Trump administration. However, they are nervous and are monitoring the situation. Still, it goes beyond labor. Anyone worried about their immigration status either now or in the next four years will think twice about buying a home, she pointed out. In a recent earnings call, $30 billion homebuilder Lennar mentioned consumer confidence slipped, and that it was keeping an eye on any impact tariffs or deportations might have on its bottom line.

All things considered, it appears the housing market is set for another lackluster spring selling season. 

The only silver lining is the wealthy, and even that may change. High-end buyers who can purchase homes in cash haven’t felt the same pain of high mortgage rates. Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers recently mentioned in an earnings call more than 70% of its business is from wealthy move-ups and empty nesters with years of home price appreciation, and the rest are rich millennials.

But they could pull back because of all the uncertainty and malaise. “They have the money,” Wolf said. “Their money has not gone away. Their home is still worth a lot. Their stocks are still worth a lot. But what has changed is just their sentiment on the market.”

The housing market has been at a post-pandemic standstill—and in a perfect world, lower mortgage rates, a predictable stock market, and confident consumers would fix it, Wolf explained.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

How DeepSeek erased Silicon Valley’s AI lead and wiped $1 trillion from U.S. markets

Published

on

© 2025 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Dow futures drop as report says White House mulls global tariff of up to 20% on nearly all trading partners

Published

on



  • US stock futures fell Sunday evening as Wall Street braced for the latest salvo in President Donald Trump’s trade war. The Wall Street Journal reported that advisers have considered a global tariff of up 20% on almost all countries, though reciprocal tariffs are still an option. That follows an earlier report that said Trump is eyeing more aggressive duties to transform the US economy.

Investors are buckling up for a potentially bumpy ride as a critical week for markets and the economy kicks off, with reports indicating President Donald Trump’s trade war could soon get even more intense.

Dow futures were down more than 180 points, or 0.43%, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.5% and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.7%. That follows Friday’s selloff that saw the broad market index sink 2%.

Tariff news dominated the weekend and indicated more escalation is ahead. On Sunday, sources told the Wall Street Journal that Trump has pushed his advisers to get more aggressive on tariffs, including higher rates on a wider set of nations.

One option under consideration in recent days is a global tariff of up to 20% that hits nearly all US trading partners, reviving an idea Trump floated on the campaign trail.

A 20% rate would further up the ante. Fitch Ratings earlier estimated that if Trump carried out all his previously announced plans, the effective US tariff rate could hit 18% on average—the highest level in 90 years. 

Reciprocal tariffs, where the US matches duties or trade barriers from other countries, are still an option too, according to the Journal, but one source that said Trump wants a “big and simple” policy.

That suggests the eventual tariff policy will be broader than Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s “dirty 15” plan to set tariffs on the 15% of countries that the administration considers the worst trading partners.

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Similarly, the Washington Post reported on Saturday that Trump is considering a single universal tariff as part of an effort to fundamentally transform the US economy.

That means most imports would face the same rate no matter which country they are from, the report said, adding that Trump views a single duty as less likely to be watered down by exemptions.

Intense discussions are ongoing ahead of Wednesday, which Trump has billed as “Liberation Day,” when his next batch of tariffs will be unveiled.

Trump has already slapped tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, steel, aluminum and autos, while threatening duties on pharmaceuticals, chips, lumber and the European Union. 

Last week, he suggested he would show some “flexibility” on reciprocal tariffs, and earlier reports said those would be more targeted, raising hopes on Wall Street that their impact would be less severe.

But after stocks rallied, his announcement of auto tariffs on Wednesday contributed to another selloff, which was also fueled by signs that tariffs were worsening inflation as well as consumers’ expectations of future inflation.

Also on Saturday, Trump stood by his auto tariffs, telling NBC News that they are permanent and that he doesn’t care of they cause carmakers to hike prices.

“I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American-made cars,” he said. “I couldn’t care less. I hope they raise their prices, because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars. We have plenty.”

Trump later said if prices on foreign cars go up, then consumers will buy American cars.

Meanwhile, several big reports are due this week that could reveal how much stress the economy is feeling from Trump’s tariffs and steep federal job cuts.

On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing activity index for March will come out, and the Labor Department will report February job openings and turnover.

On Wednesday, ADP will release private-sector payroll data for March. On Thursday, ISM will publish its monthly services-activity index, and the Labor Department will report weekly jobless claims.

On Friday, the Labor Department will issue its highly anticipated March jobs report, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

EU will respond firmly to US tariffs but still open to ‘compromise,’ German chancellor says

Published

on

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Sunday said the EU would respond firmly to tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump but stressed the bloc was also open to compromise.

“It is clear that we, as the European Union… will react clearly and decisively to the United States’ tariff policy,” Scholz said ahead of the opening of a trade fair in Hanover.

But the bloc was “always and at all times firmly prepared to work for compromise and cooperation”, he said.

“I say to the US: Europe’s goal remains cooperation. But if the US leaves us no choice, as with the tariffs on steel and aluminum, we will respond as a united European Union,” Scholz said.

Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on the United States’ allies and adversaries, including a 25-percent levy on auto imports starting next week.

A 25-percent US tariff on steel and aluminium from around the world came into effect in mid-March, with EU countermeasures set to begin in April.

As a major car manufacturer and exporter, Germany could be hit particularly hard by the auto tariffs and they were the subject of a visit to Washington by Finance Minister Joerg Kukies last week.

Germany has vowed a tough response to the tariffs, with a government spokesman insisting that “nothing is off the table”.

However, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni struck a more conciliatory tone on Saturday, calling for a “reasoned” approach to the escalating dispute.

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen also previously said she “deeply” regretted the US auto tariffs and the EU would “continue to seek negotiated solutions”.

Scholz on Sunday also insisted Canada was an independent country, responding to repeated comments by Trump that it should become the 51st US state.

“Canada is a proud, independent nation, Canada has friends all over the world and especially here in Germany and Europe,” he said at the Hanover trade fair.

Canada is a special guest at the event, which officially opens on Monday.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © Miami Select.