Regardless of how a high-profile congressional election plays out, Randy Fine has officially left his Senate seat. Republican voters in Senate District 19 on Tuesday will choose the most likely person to succeed him later this year, with his predecessor clearly in the mix.

Republican Debbie Mayfield, a Representative and former Senator, holds a massive money advantage ahead of the SD 19 Republican Primary.

But she faces Tim Thomas, a former Melbourne City Council member widely seen as a favorite of Gov. Ron DeSantis; Marcie Adkins, a Republican leader who challenged Fine in a 2020 Primary; and Mark Lightner, a business graduate hoping to stand out as someone who isn’t a career politician.

Mayfield already enjoyed a legal victory in getting her name to appear on the ballot. Secretary of State Cord Byrd earlier this year disqualified Mayfield on the grounds that since, as a term-limited Senator, she could not seek this Senate seat in 2024, she should not be able to run in a Special Election months later to replace Fine, who resigned the seat to run for Congress.

But the Florida Supreme Court said Byrd erred both in reaching beyond the ministerial duties of running the Division of Elections and misreading Florida’s term limit rules, which only restrict nonconsecutive service in office.

Since the state’s high court validated her candidacy, Mayfield has enjoyed massive financial support for her campaign. Through March 27, Mayfield spent nearly $169,000 on the race. She enjoyed support thanks to numerous influential political operations in Tallahassee donating maximum $1,000 contributions to her campaign, including Associated Industries of Florida, as well as lobbying firms like Greenberg Traurig, Rubin Turnbull & Associates and Ronald L. Book Government Consulting.

Political committees controlled by Senate President Ben Albritton and Sens. Jim Boyd, Colleen Burton, Ed Hooper, Corey Simon and Tom Wright, all of whom previously served with Mayfield in the Senate, also donated.

That gave Mayfield an edge financially before touching political committees under her control, including Conservatives for Good Government and Friends of Debbie Mayfield, the latter of which reported almost $117,000 in spending as of March 19.

The next biggest fundraiser proved to be Adkins, who spent more than $37,000 on the race through March 27. Thomas spent more than $14,000 through that point, while Lightner reported about $8,500 in expenditures. None of the candidates had high-profile committees supporting their campaigns.

Thomas has leaned on his time as a teacher and ROTC instructor in the community, promising to expand civic education and invest in technology in the schools, a high priority on the Space Coast. He has even incorporated the image of a rocket ship into his campaign logo.

Adkins has focused on economic and infrastructure, while staking out an anti-development position and the need to improve the health of the Indian River Lagoon.

Lightner, meanwhile, has called for ways to engage young conservatives, and on his website slams politicians “playing musical chairs,” a pretty direct slight at Mayfield.

But Mayfield has leaned on the same message that helped her win a House seat in November and which fueled past Senate races. She has promised tax relief for families and to champion parental rights in the Legislature.

She also has stressed that she has the support of President Donald Trump, who technically endorsed her House campaign last cycle after she switched her presidential endorsement from DeSantis to Trump in late 2023.

Many suspect that move also motivated the qualification fight with the administration ahead of this election. But if DeSantis doesn’t want Mayfield back in the Senate, that friction hasn’t resulted in any massive investment in an opponent’s campaign.

Of note, Mayfield as a sitting Representative has spent much of the last month in the Legislative Session in Tallahassee, barring her from raising money for a campaign. That’s a drawback to running essentially as an incumbent, just as serving in the Legislature for the past two decades has drawn criticism of being a career politician.

The winner of the Republican Primary in SD 19 will advance to a Special General Election on June 10. The GOP nominee will face Democrat Vance Ahrens, whom Fine defeated in November for the seat.

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Former state Rep. Joel Rudman’s congressional ambitions didn’t pan out. But eight Republicans jumped at the opening that his departure created in House District 3.

A Republican Primary on Tuesday will determine which candidate in a crowded field becomes the Republican nominee. Former Okaloosa County Commissioner Nathan Boyles and former Jay Mayor Shon Owens have each spent more than six figures on the seat, with Assistant State Attorney Hayden Hudson also pulling together a respectable number of contributions and endorsements.

But other contenders in the race — Okaloosa County Republican Club President Rena McQuaig, former Okaloosa County Commission candidate Wade Merritt, Assistant State Attorney Joshua Sik, mental health advocate Cindy Smith and Milton veteran Jamie Lee Wells — have all worked the trail and hope to emerge from a fractured field.

The winner of the GOP Primary will advance to a June 10 General Special Election against Democrat Dondre Wise.

Boyles has raised the most outside contributions in the race, reporting more than $151,000 in contributions and spending nearly $111,000 as of March 27.

He has also secured endorsements from Jimmy Patronis, the front-runner for a congressional Special Election in Florida’s Panhandle the same day as the Primary, and from major lobbies in Tallahassee including the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Prosperity. Boyles has run on a law-and-order message.

“We are a nation of laws and we must be an active partner in working with President (Donald) Trump and law enforcement in securing our southern border, ending taxpayer incentives that encourage illegal immigration, and deport illegal aliens caught in Florida,” Boyles said. “We must always stand for the rule of law and keep our communities safe and stand up for Americans first, and always.”

Owens, meanwhile, has pulled in about $80,000 in contributions and supplemented that with $41,000 in candidate loans. As of the last reporting period, he had spent more than any candidate in the race, upward of $120,000.

Owens had to resign his seat as Mayor in order to run, and left that office Friday. He also announced endorsements from former U.S. Rep. Jeff Miller and most of the Santa Rosa County Commission, with the race characterized in local media as an Okaloosa-Santa Rosa turf war, even as Owens’ own residency has been called into question, something he addressed in a campaign video.

“I’m standing here at my home in Jay, the one that I built with my own bare hands 25 years ago,” Owens said.

“I’ve spent my entire life in Jay. As you can see, I live right behind Pittman building supply, which brings me to the second lie, that I’m against Second Amendment rights. I’m standing here inside Pittman Building Supply, where I’ve legally sold firearms to the community under this federal firearms license I’ve held for the past 15 years. The third lie questions my stance on illegal immigration and E-Verify. I’m standing here in front of the office of two companies I own. Both of these companies are legally required to use E-Verify, and we follow that requirement strictly.”

Rudman, for his part, endorsed Hudson. So has former U.S. Rep. Ted Yoho, an Ocala Republican who used to represent part of Northwest Florida. Hudson has spent more than $31,000 on the race, and reported more than $27,000 in contributions plus a $10,000 candidate loan to fuel his candidacy.

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The eyes of political viewers across the country will be trained Tuesday night on a congressional race in Northeast Florida. There, polls show Republican Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil locked in a neck-and-neck race to succeed former U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz.

That’s shocking in itself, as voters in Florida’s 6th Congressional District just in November backed Donald Trump by 30 percentage points. Waltz in November won his re-election campaign with 66.5% of the vote.

Republicans hold a major advantage in the race as far as voter registration is concerned. With voter rolls closed ahead of the Special Election, CD 6 had more than 273,000 Republicans registered, compared to just over 142,000 Democrats, while another more than 143,000 other voters.

But Democrats have turned lingering resentment over the 2024 Presidential Election into a massive haul in political contributions. Weil said he has raised more than $10 million for the race, mostly in small donations from across the county. By contrast, Fine has underperformed in fundraising, reporting less than $1 million in contributions, according to his latest fundraising report.

But can a middle school math teacher with a “D” by his name beat a sitting state Senator running with Trump’s endorsement in a deep red district? That’s a question the political world will have answered after polls close at 7 p.m. Tuesday.

“For the last four months our campaign has been in the field, knocking doors and engaging with new and current voters,” Weil said. “As we approach election day, our efforts have been reflected in what we’ve seen in the early vote, because we remain focused on what truly matters to the voters. I am dedicated to protecting Social Security, Medicare and lowering costs, ensuring that our seniors and families have the support they need to thrive.

“I’m grateful for the hundreds of thousands of Floridians and regular Americans who still believe in a better future. It’s that grassroots energy that is going to defeat career politician Randy Fine and the huge corporations and special interests that own him and his campaign.”

Fine, though, remains confident the voters in this district remain supportive of Trump’s agenda, and that the final election results will reflect as much. He said the election comes down to some easy choices for conservative voters.

“Donald Trump-candidate vs. Bernie Sanders-candidate. Self-made businessman vs guy skimming his own campaign funds,” Fine said. “Republicans need to vote. If they do, it’s going to be Fine.”

Ground game

When it comes to voter turnout, Democrats have been able to keep things much tighter, according to data tracked by analyst Michael Pruser. As of Monday morning, 19,095 mail-in ballots from Democrats had been received by elections officials compared to 17,562 ballots from Republicans; another 7.519 ballots were received from voters not registered with either party.

After two weeks of in-person early voting wrapped on Saturday, Republicans have closed the turnout gap and then some. In total, 29,841 Republicans across the district cast in-person ballots across the six counties in CD 6, compared to 19,012 Democrats and 7,906 others.

But that still means more than a quarter of all Democrats eligible to vote in the election already turned out before polls even opened on Election Day on Tuesday. By comparison, less than 16% of Republicans had turned out, and Democrats have reason to believe many of those are disaffected voters upset at Trump or who just don’t like Fine.

In fact, one of the Republicans who once represented CD 6 in Congress now serves as Governor of Florida. Fine and Gov. Ron DeSantis have feuded for more than a year over a range of issues, with things taking a notably sour turn after the Palm Bay Republican switched a presidential endorsement from DeSantis to Trump in 2023. When asked about the difference in Democratic and Republican turnout in CD 6 last week, DeSantis quickly pegged blame on “the specific candidate running in that race.”

Nevertheless, the state party reports members of DeSantis’ political team have been knocking on doors in CD 6 ahead of the election. Additionally, the Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) has managed 200,000 volunteer phone calls supporting candidates in this Special Election and another also happening in Florida’s 1st Congressional District. The party will staff tents at most high-traffic precincts.

“Phone calls are still going out from across the state to voters saying if you haven’t gone out and voted, it’s an important election in CD 6,” said Bill Helmich, RPOF Executive Director.

But Florida Democratic Party (FDP) officials also have put resources into the field to back Weil.

“We’re going to run through the tape,” said Matt Dailey, FDP Deputy Communications Director. “We are making sure we reach out to every Democratic voter.”

National attention

The interest in the race proved wide enough to attract Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin to canvas the district alongside FDP Chair Nikki Fried. Sanders, a progressive U.S. Senator from Vermont, endorsed Weil.

But Trump also personally stepped in, holding a tele-rally for Fine ahead of the vote. Additionally, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, a gubernatorial candidate who once served with Fine in the Florida House, held a tele-rally with Fine on the eve of the election with conservative pundit Ben Shapiro.

Weil held several mini-canvassing events throughout the district and will spend much of Tuesday on the ground in the most populous areas of Putnam, Marion and Flagler counties before holding a party in the evening in Daytona Beach. Fine, meanwhile, spent his Monday in conservative bastions like Tavares and Ormond Beach after spending much of the weekend in conservative St. Johns County.

Privately, Republicans figure if they can grow the difference between GOP voters and Democrats who cast ballots to between 12 and 15 percentage points. But Democrats say even if Weil doesn’t win, the results can send a powerful message. The last time CD 6 was an open seat, when Waltz was elected in 2018, Republicans won by less than 13 percentage points. If Weil simply beats that spread, Democrats could call that a win.

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