With Gov. Ron DeSantis expected to tap state Sen. Jay Collins for his new Lt. Governor on Tuesday, speculation has already started about who would replace him in Florida Senate District 14, the Hillsborough County-based district Collins currently serves. 

Collins was first elected to the Senate in 2022, flipping the seat red after former Sen. Janet Cruz had flipped it blue just four years before. That means Collins’ departure from the seat, which will set up a Special Election to fill it for the remainder of his term through 2026, will no doubt give Democrats hope for reclaiming it, especially in a year where the party is already hoping to begin efforts to capitalize on 2026 midterms that are expected to serve as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s second presidency. 

But a flip, even ahead of a midterm cycle that, if history is any indication, should favor Democrats as the party not in power in Washington, would still be an uphill climb. Republicans control about 36% of the electorate, with Democrats having just under 32%. More than 29% of the district’s voters are registered with no party affiliation. 

And even without a registration advantage, political winds in Florida have been blowing to the right for some time, with historic gains in races even in areas, such as Hillsborough County, that had been trending more to the left. 

The year Cruz lost to Collins, the vote margin was about 10 percentage points. Worse, at the time, Democrats had a voter registration advantage, albeit slight at just two percentage points. Republicans also shocked political onlookers by not only flipping the Hillsborough County Commission, but by nearly sweeping it. Two Democrats lost their seats, robbing Democrats of a 5-2 majority on the board and handing the GOP a 4-3 majority. Two years later, they lost another seat, giving the GOP its own 5-2 majority, which it still enjoys today. 

Democrats may find some silver lining, though. Senate District 14 underperforms the GOP’s recent statewide domination by about half the margin. Trump carried the district last year by 6.5 percentage points, while he won by 13 percentage points statewide. DeSantis in his 2022 re-election won by just under 12 percentage points, a nearly eight-point drop from his more than 19 percentage point victory statewide. 

“Collins’s district is more left-leaning than the state is trending overall, but that doesn’t mean his departure will result in a pickup for the Democrats. In an open race like this, I trust the Senate GOP’s money advantage more than the Democrats’ ability to find a candidate,” said Ryan Tyson, a political strategist and President of The Tyson Group. 

And indeed, the list of rumored contenders on the GOP side is a lot longer than any top names that come to mind from the Democrats’ bench. So, who might we see in a matchup to replace Collins? Let’s take a look. 

Democrats

Janet Cruz

Cruz is the seemingly obvious choice for Democrats. She has already served the district, and before that, she also served in the House. And even though she suffered a tough loss, she also carried on her name recognition through a recent Tampa City Council bid.

Seen as a somewhat political moderate, Cruz also has a track record of working well with Republicans across the aisle, if not in the open, at least behind closed doors. 

And Cruz is a fundraising powerhouse who, by some accounts, is Tampa royalty. Her daughter is Ana Cruz, an influential lobbyist with Ballard Partners and the long-time partner of Tampa Mayor Jane Castor. 

Cruz topped $2 million raised in her 2022 race against Collins between her campaign and affiliated political committee, Building the Bay PC, more than doubling the $631,000 he raised. The following year, she topped $200,000 for her unsuccessful City Council race, a massive haul for a local election, even in one of the state’s largest cities. 

But the most recent loss was a hard one, with the incumbent Cruz, who was challenged, earning more than 60% of the vote despite the funding disadvantage. Some in the Democratic Party may hope for a candidate on the rise. Still, it would be hard to beat Cruz’s strong name ID and campaign finance prowess. 

Dianne Hart

Hart is the current state Rep. for House District 63, which slightly overlaps with SD 14, and she’s facing term limits next year, making a run for higher office something she could consider.

But it would mean she’d have to leave her House seat early, setting up yet another Special Election to replace her. It wouldn’t be much of a risk to Dems — only a little less than 16% of the district’s electorate are registered Republicans, while more than 54% are Democrats, according to the most recent L2 voter data — but Hart would potentially be slashing her last year in office to run what would be a tough, maybe even long-shot race. 

Luis Viera

Beloved in the area as a Tampa City Council member, Viera is already a declared candidate for House District 67 next year. And he’s already banked well over six figures for his race. He could switch to run for Senate instead. 

But like Hart’s House District 63, Viera would be swapping a relatively safe Democratic seat for a Republican-leaning race that would immediately pit him as the underdog. 

Viera is running to succeed Rep. Fentrice Driskell, the House Minority Leader, who is leaving office due to term limits. Nearly 38% of the electorate are registered Democrats, compared to just 27% who are Republicans, according to the most recent L2 voter data.

Republicans

Josie Tomkow

Rumor has it Tomkow is one of the GOP’s top picks for a possible Special Election in SD 14. Tomkow is facing term limits in her current House District 51 seat, making a bid for the upper chamber a timely prospect.

Over the past several years, Tomkow has proven herself to be a quiet force in the House. As a cattle rancher, she has provided strong representation for agriculture communities and she remains a key member of Speaker Daniel Perez’s leadership team, helping shape numerous legislative packages beyond just her own bills.

With Perez still holding another year in his leadership tenure, his backing all but guarantees plenty of cash to keep the seat for the GOP, and friends in high places to help with other campaign needs. 

Layla Collins

If the name sounds familiar, it should. Collins is the wife of incumbent Jay Collins and a strong ally in DeSantis’ world. 

Currently serving as a DeSantis appointee to the Florida Board of Education, Collins is no stranger to politics. DeSantis backed Collins in her bid last year for the Hillsborough County School Board, though she ultimately lost to incumbent Nadia Combs, earning just 36% of the vote. 

Running Layla Collins would almost be like running an incumbent, thanks to the shared last name. And while serving in the Senate would mean leaving her post in the DOE, there’s little doubt Collins would have a strong foundation for a competitive campaign, with access to her husband’s political resources and, potentially, the Governor’s backing. 

Susan Valdes

Jack of all politics or master of none?

Valdes is, at least recently, best known for her party swap. In December, she announced she was leaving the Democratic Party to become a Republican, citing dysfunction within the Democratic apparatus. 

She touted her move last month at a Tampa Tiger Bay event, arguing her party swap allowed her to bring home wins for her district (HD 64), which has significant overlap with SD 14. 

“I accomplished in four years what I was not able to accomplish in seven years,” she said at the time. 

Rumors have swirled for some time that Valdes may be interested in running for the upper chamber, though much of that speculation came when she was still a Democrat. Now, she has an opening, but she’s also faced with other potential, including the Hillsborough County Commission. 

Karen Gonzalez Pittman

Geographically, the seat makes sense for Pittman, who currently represents HD 65. But the timing and current political mood may not be in her favor.

First, Pittman was elected to her House seat in 2022, meaning she’ll be facing her second re-election next year and will still have four years on the clock after that before term limits kick in. 

But worse for Pittman, she’s not likely to get any blessings from DeSantis’ world. The DeSantises, including First Lady Casey DeSantis, grew angry with Pittman in May after she was critical of the First Lady’s Hope Florida program and the controversy that ensnared it earlier this year. Casey DeSantis called it “petty politics,” while Gov. DeSantis claimed Pittman was disseminating “intentionally fraudulent” materials about Hope Florida created by what he described as “far-left Democrats.” 

If there is a GOP Primary, such labels would be hard to get around. 

Sandy Murman

This one might not have even gotten a mention had it not been for a paper trail. Murman, a former Hillsborough County Commissioner, hasn’t been on a ballot since 2020, when she lost her Hillsborough Commission race as an incumbent, to another incumbent, Democrat Pat Kemp (the incumbent-on-incumbent matchup was made possible by seat swapping). 

While Murman is still seen from time to time hobnobbing with Hillsborough County’s political elite, she’s otherwise a distant memory in local politics. That’s not a dig on Murman so much as a statement of political fact. 

But in late July, Murman filed paperwork establishing a political committee, signaling she’s planning to run for something. It might not be this Senate seat, but the presence of a PC certainly warrants a mention. 

Jackie Toledo

Another alumnus in Hillsborough GOP politics, Toledo hasn’t been in office since she left her House seat in 2022 to run for Congress. 

Toledo, compared to other names discussed for a possible SD 14 bid, appears to be a long shot. She lost in the GOP Primary for Florida’s 15th Congressional District by a considerable margin, collecting less than 12% of the vote. That put her in third place in the Primary behind Kelli Stargel with nearly 28% and Laurel Lee with almost 42%. Lee went on to win the General Election. 

Toledo did good work in the House during her tenure, but her track record in elections otherwise might not be the resume Republicans want to tap for a race likely to be competitive. 

While Toledo easily held her House seat since being elected in 2016 until she left office in 2022, she lost another race in 2015, a Tampa City Council race against now-incumbent Guido Maniscalco. 

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