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Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 8.31.25

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Summer may be nearing its close, but you can count on Florida to continue delivering scorching hot takes.

State leaders touched off a national firestorm this week by announcing plans to end all vaccine mandates, including long-standing requirements for schoolchildren.

Gov. Ron DeSantis and Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo framed the move as a victory for “medical freedom,” with Ladapo even comparing mandates to slavery. The proposal would roll back rules that for decades have required shots against measles, polio, chickenpox and other preventable diseases before students can attend public school.

Public health experts quickly blasted the plan. Pediatricians, the American Medical Association, and infectious disease specialists warned that ending mandates could reverse decades of progress in eradicating deadly illnesses. The World Health Organization and CDC have both credited widespread childhood vaccination with saving millions of lives each year.

What makes this moment especially striking is how the goalposts have shifted. During the COVID pandemic, skepticism in Florida was framed as resistance to the COVID vaccine — a fight over a new shot, developed quickly, and mandated in workplaces and schools.

But this week’s announcement shows that was just a ruse and that the COVID debate was a precursor, opening the door to dismantling confidence in all vaccines, even those that have long been considered the bedrock of modern public health.

It’s fair for individuals to feel they should have a choice over what goes into their bodies. But vaccines have always been about more than the individual — they’re about the community.

A single person opting out might feel like an act of freedom. Tens of thousands opting out, however, risks the return of measles outbreaks in schools or polio resurfacing in neighborhoods. That’s the balance Florida is now choosing to test.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Lavon Bracy Davis, RaShon Young. Two Democrats are celebrating after coasting to victory in Special Elections this week.

In the Orlando-area Senate District 15, LaVon Bracy Davis won handily with nearly three-quarters of the vote, succeeding the late Sen. Geraldine Thompson. Bracy Davis, who had already been serving in the House, was long seen as the favorite, and Tuesday’s result confirmed it.

Meanwhile, her former Chief of Staff, RaShon Young, scored an equally decisive win in House District 40 to succeed Bracy Davis, topping his Republican opponent with about 75% support. Young, just 27, becomes the first Generation Z Democrat in the Legislature, a milestone that underscores both his political rise and the influence of Bracy Davis’ mentoring.

Neither result came as a surprise — both districts lean blue and the candidates were favored from the start once they won their respective Primary contests. But now it’s official, and Bracy Davis and Young can turn their focus from campaigning to governing.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Everglades. Florida’s “River of Grass” is earning major support thanks to a significant federal funding boost to continue momentum in restoration efforts.

Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart, Vice Chair of the House Appropriations Committee, announced that the 2026 Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations Act would contain $461 million for Everglades restoration, money that Díaz-Balart pushed to secure.

The House passed the measure by the narrowest of margins Thursday, 214-213. It will next go to the Senate.

This funding comes as part of a larger federal commitment on water projects. The bill for Fiscal Year 2026 appropriates more than $57 billion, including vital support for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers — central to delivering Everglades restoration projects — and works in tandem with existing state investments to accelerate progress on the ground.

These federal dollars come on top of recent momentum. The Legislature allocated over $1.4 billion for restoration in the latest budget, and that’s on top of billions of dollars allocated in years prior.

The funding blitz show leaders aren’t content to deal with delays and half-measures. There’s real money on the table and clear direction from both Tallahassee and Washington. It’s turning the Everglades into a rare Florida success story — one where politics, policy and persistence are working to do good for Florida.

The biggest winner: John Temple. Temple has been tapped as the new President of Lake–Sumter State College, making him the latest in a long list of Republican politicians turned higher ed leaders.

Temple, however, has  experience in education. A former teacher and K–12 administrator who holds a master’s in educational leadership from Nova Southeastern, Temple brings both academic credentials and real-world governance experience to the role.

His new position fills the void left by interim President Laura Byrd, after the abrupt departure of President Heather Bigard last year. Temple, who will depart his seat representing House District 52, was unanimously selected by the college’s Board of Trustees to step into the top post after serving as the institution’s associate vice president for workforce development. The board cited his deep ties to the region and understanding of Lake and Sumter counties’ educational and economic needs.

Temple’s move continues the trend in Florida of GOP legislators stepping into the C-suite of academia. In February, former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner became President of Florida Atlantic University. Also earlier this year, Manny Díaz Jr., a former state education commissioner and lawmaker, was tapped as interim President of the University of West Florida.

The list extends to Richard Corcoran, ex-Speaker and Education Commissioner, now at the helm of New College of Florida. And of course Jeanette Nuñez, the state’s former Lieutenant Governor, is now leading Florida International University.

The concentration of GOP names in the top slots, now including Temple, reinforces DeSantis’ push to remake Florida’s educational system. The only question is: Who will be next?

Losers

Dishonorable mention: John Kevin Lapinski. Few people deserve the loser label more than Lapinski. The 41-year-old Margate man has been sentenced to 25 years in federal prison after authorities uncovered an arsenal of weapons and a detailed plan to carry out hate-fueled violence against Black and Jewish Americans.

Inside his home, investigators say they found rifles, handguns, body armor, silencers, smoke grenades, thousands of rounds of ammunition and tactical gear. Alongside all of that was a grotesque “hit list” of targets that included local synagogues, schools, and even U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a Jewish Congressman from South Florida.

Lapinski wasn’t just fantasizing — prosecutors linked him to a 2024 incident where a Jewish family’s home and car were shot up. His stockpile showed clear intent to not just harm individuals, but terrorize communities.

Federal prosecutors called his actions a direct threat to the safety and fabric of South Florida. They’re right. And the fact that his list included a sitting member of Congress makes it even more chilling. Lapinski will spend the next quarter century behind bars, which is exactly where he belongs.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Venezuela diaspora. The Trump administration moved forward with a sweeping rollback of legal protections for Venezuelan migrants, announcing the end of temporary protected status (TPS) for around 257,000 migrants, removing both work permits and deportation relief for families who fled the crisis in Venezuela.

The fallout is especially sharp in Florida, which is home to around 49% of all Venezuelan immigrants in the U.S. Major metro areas across the state had become new homes and economic anchors for thousands of these migrants. Now, they will have to prepare for upheaval.

The potential economic effects are enormous. TPS holders in Florida have filled jobs across health care, hospitality, construction and service industries — sectors already struggling with labor shortages. Many also run small businesses, paying taxes and employing fellow Floridians. Removing tens of thousands of workers from the legal labor force risks undercutting local economies, slowing growth in South Florida and Central Florida in particular.

And we emphasize the “legal” there. Trump came in on a mandate to adjust U.S. policy regarding illegal immigration, an issue on which former President Joe Biden failed. The Trump administration may argue the TPS program had been abused, and that the economy should rely on American workers. That is a massive gambit to take given all of the other uncertainty in the economy, prompted largely by his own decision-making.

Late Friday, a Judge stepped in and attempted to pause any changes to the TPS program. But the Trump administration is clearly continuing to push ahead until a compliant Supreme Court can weigh in. Delay or no delay, the writing appears to be on the wall here.

The biggest loser: Paul Renner. Renner finally made it official this week, jumping into the 2026 race for Governor. But the former House Speaker enters the field already overshadowed and betrayed.

Byron Donalds declared months ago, is sitting on a pile of cash, and has quickly consolidated support among conservatives. Donalds has been a fixture on Fox News and the national MAGA circuit, building both name recognition and a donor network that stretches far beyond Florida. Renner, by contrast, is  less well-known and lacks the same fundraising infrastructure.

That’s why Renner could have used help from his most powerful ally — DeSantis. As Speaker, Renner carried the Governor’s agenda through the Legislature: expanding school choice, passing constitutional carry, cutting taxes and eliminating diversity, equity and inclusion programs at universities. He regularly branded those victories as part of “the Free State of Florida,” burnishing DeSantis’ image nationally while keeping the House in line with the Governor’s priorities.

And what good did that loyalty get him? Well, DeSantis promptly threw Renner under the bus. Within hours of his announcement, the Governor dismissed the candidacy as “ill-advised” and said he would not be supporting him.

For someone pitching himself as the continuity candidate — the natural heir to DeSantis’ Florida legacy — it was a brutal public rejection. And as Renner complied in making the Legislature an arm of the executive branch under DeSantis — work that House Speaker Daniel Perez and Senate President Ben Albritton have sought to undo to varying degrees — one has to ask what the point of it all was.

Now, Renner faces a steep climb. He starts with little statewide name recognition, less money than his chief rival and the added weight of a very public rebuke from the Governor he loyally served.

Launch weeks are supposed to build momentum. Instead, Renner’s rollout underscored just how much ground he has to make up — and how alone he may be on the trail.


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Rolando Escalona aims to deny Frank Carollo a return to the Miami Commission

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Early voting is now underway in Miami for a Dec. 9 runoff that will decide whether political newcomer Rolando Escalona can block former Commissioner Frank Carollo from reclaiming the District 3 seat long held by the Carollo family.

The contest has already been marked by unusual turbulence: both candidates faced eligibility challenges that threatened — but ultimately failed — to knock them off the ballot.

Escalona survived a dramatic residency challenge in October after a rival candidate accused him of faking his address. A Miami-Dade Judge rejected the claim following a detailed, three-hour trial that examined everything from his lease records to his Amazon orders.

After the Nov. 4 General Election — when Carollo took about 38% of the vote and Escalona took 17% to outpace six other candidates — Carollo cleared his own legal hurdle when another Judge ruled he could remain in the race despite the city’s new lifetime term limits that, according to three residents who sued, should have barred him from running again.

Those rulings leave voters with a stark choice in District 3, which spans Little Havana, East Shenandoah, West Brickell and parts of Silver Bluff and the Roads.

The runoff pits a self-described political outsider against a veteran official with deep institutional experience and marks a last chance to extend the Carollo dynasty to a twentieth straight year on the dais or block that potentiality.

Escalona, 34, insists voters are ready to move on from the chaos and litigation that have surrounded outgoing Commissioner Joe Carollo, whose tenure included a $63.5 million judgment against him for violating the First Amendment rights of local business owners and the cringe-inducing firing of a Miami Police Chief, among other controversies.

A former busboy who rose through the hospitality industry to manage high-profile Brickell restaurant Sexy Fish while also holding a real estate broker’s license, Escalona is running on a promise to bring transparency, better basic services, lower taxes for seniors and improved permitting systems to the city.

He wants to improve public safety, support economic development, enhance communities, provide more affordable housing, lower taxes and advocate for better fiscal responsibility in government.

He told the Miami Herald that if elected, he’d fight to restore public trust by addressing public corruption while re-engaging residents who feel unheard by current officials.

Carollo, 55, a CPA who served two terms on the dais from 2009 to 2017, has argued that the district needs an experienced leader. He’s pointed to his record balancing budgets and pledges a residents-first agenda focused on safer streets, cleaner neighborhoods and responsive government.

Carollo was the top fundraiser in the District 3 race this cycle, amassing about $501,000 between his campaign account and political committee, Residents First, and spending about $389,500 by the last reporting dates.

Escalona, meanwhile, reported raising close to $109,000 through his campaign account and spending all but 6,000 by Dec. 4.

The winner will secure a four-year term.



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Florida kicks off first black bear hunt in a decade, despite pushback

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For the first time in a decade, hunters armed with rifles and crossbows are fanning out across Florida’s swamps and flatwoods to legally hunt the Florida black bear, over the vocal opposition of critics.

The state-sanctioned hunt began Saturday, after drawing more than 160,000 applications for a far more limited number of hunting permits, including from opponents who are trying to reduce the number of bears killed in this year’s hunt, the state’s first since 2015.

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission awarded 172 bear hunt permits by random lottery for this year’s season, allowing hunters to kill one bear each in areas where the population is deemed large enough. At least 43 of the permits went to opponents of the hunt who never intend to use them, according to the Florida chapter of the Sierra Club, which encouraged critics to apply in the hopes of saving bears.

The Florida black bear population is considered one of the state’s conservation success stories, having grown from just several hundred bears in the 1970s to an estimated more than 4,000 today.

The 172 people who were awarded a permit through a random lottery will be able to kill one bear each during the 2025 season, which runs from Dec. 6 to Dec. 28. The permits are specific to one of the state’s four designated bear hunting zones, each of which have a hunting quota set by state officials based on the bear population in each region.

In order to participate, hunters must hold a valid hunting license and a bear harvest permit, which costs $100 for residents and $300 for nonresidents, plus fees. Applications for the permits cost $5 each.

The regulated hunt will help incentivize maintaining healthy bear populations, and help fund the work that is needed, according to Mark Barton of the Florida chapter of Backcountry Hunters and Anglers, an advocacy group that supported the hunt.

Having an annual hunt will help guarantee funding to “keep moving conservation for bears forward,” Barton said.

According to state wildlife officials, the bear population has grown enough to support a regulated hunt and warrant population management. The state agency sees hunting as an effective tool that is used to manage wildlife populations around the world, and allows the state to monetize conservation efforts through permit and application fees.

“While we have enough suitable bear habitat to support our current bear population levels, if the four largest subpopulations continue to grow at current rates, we will not have enough habitat at some point in the future,” reads a bear hunting guide published by the state wildlife commission.

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Republished with permission of the Associated Press.



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Early voting underway for Miami Mayor’s runoff between Eileen Higgins, Emilio González

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Early voting is underway in Miami as former County Commissioner Eileen Higgins and former City Manager Emilio González enter the final stretch of a closely watched Dec. 9 mayoral runoff.

The two candidates rose from a 13-person field Nov. 4, with Higgins winning about 36% of the vote and González taking 19.5%. Because neither surpassed 50%, Miami voters must now choose between contrasting visions for a city grappling with affordability, rising seas, political dysfunction and rapid growth.

Both promise to bring more stability and accountability to City Hall. Both say Miami’s permitting process needs fixing.

Higgins, a mechanical engineer and eight-year county commissioner with a broad, international background in government service, has emphasized affordable housing — urging the city to build on public land and create a dedicated housing trust fund — and supports expanding the City Commission from five to nine members to improve neighborhood representation.

She also backs more eco-friendly and flood-preventative infrastructure, faster park construction and better transportation connectivity and efficiency.

She opposes Miami’s 287(g) agreement with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, calling recent enforcement “inhumane and cruel,” and has pledged to serve as a full-time mayor with no outside employment while replacing City Manager Art Noriega.

González, a retired Air Force colonel, former Director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and ex-CEO of Miami International Airport, argues Miami needs an experienced administrator to fix what he calls deep structural problems.

He has made permitting reform a top priority, labeling the current system as barely functioning, and says affordability must be addressed through broader tax relief rather than relying on housing development alone.

He supports limited police cooperation with ICE and wants Miami to prepare for the potential repeal of homestead property taxes. Like Higgins, he vows to replace Noriega but opposes expanding the commission.

He also vows, if elected, to establish a “Deregulation Task Force” to unburden small businesses, prioritizing capital investments that protect Miamians, increasing the city’s police force, modernizing Miami services with technology and a customer-friendly approach, and rein in government spending and growth.

Notably, Miami’s Nov. 4 election this year might not have taken place if not for González, who successfully sued in July to stop officials from delaying its election until 2026.

The runoff has drawn national attention, with major Democrats like Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, Arizona U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego and Orange County Mayor-turned-gubernatorial candidate Jerry Demings and his wife, former Congresswoman Val Demings, backing Higgins and high-profile Republicans like President Donald Trump, Gov. Ron DeSantis and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott lining up behind González.

For both parties, Miami’s outcome is seen as a bellwether heading into a volatile 2026 cycle, in a city where growth, climate challenges and governance failures remain top concerns for nearly 500,000 residents.

Higgins, a 61-year-old Democrat who was born in Ohio and grew up in New Mexico, entered the race as the longest-serving current member of the Miami-Dade Commission. She won her seat in a 2018 Special Election and coasted back into re-election unopposed last year.

She chose to vacate her seat three years early to run for Mayor.

She worked for years in the private sector, overseeing global manufacturing in Europe and Latin America, before returning stateside to lead marketing for companies such as Pfizer and Jose Cuervo.

In 2006, she took a Director job with the Peace Corps in Belize, after which she served as a foreign service officer for the U.S. State Department under President Barack Obama, working in Mexico and in economic development areas in South Africa.

Since filing in April, Higgins raised $386,500 through her campaign account. She also amassed close to $658,000 by the end of September through her county-level political committee, Ethical Leadership for Miami. Close to a third of that sum — $175,000 — came through a transfer from her state-level PC.

She also spent about $881,000.

If elected, Higgins would make history as Miami’s first woman Mayor.

González, a 68-year-old born in Cuba, brought the most robust government background to the race. A U.S. Army veteran who rose to the rank of colonel, he served as Miami City Manager from 2017 to 2020, CEO of Miami International Airport (MIA) from 2013 to 2017 and as Director of Citizenship and Immigration Services at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under President George W. Bush.

In private life, he works as a partner at investment management firm RSMD Investco LLC. He also serves as a member of the Treasury Investment Council under the Florida Department of Financial Services.

Since filing to run for Mayor in April, he raised nearly $1.2 million and spent about $1 million.

Election Day is Tuesday.



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