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Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 8.10.25

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Just weeks into his tenure as Florida’s Education Commissioner, Anastasios Kamoutsas is hitting the ground running in enforcing Gov. Ron DeSantis’ education agenda.

This week, Kamoutsas courted a headline from the Tampa Bay Times reading, “How Florida’s new education chief is rattling schools with public threats.”

The meat of the article was about how Kamoutsas is defaulting to lobbing complaints against local school districts — whether it be about books the state views as inappropriate or calling out teachers unions — by using his X account.

That has led to some criticism from local officials who say they would rather address concerns privately.

But given DeSantis’ track record of aggressively fighting culture wars in public, that type of jab is surely seen as a badge of honor in the Governor’s Mansion.

Unnamed school officials were also described by the Times as “on edge” and as trying to avoid being “the next target.”

Again, music to the DeSantis administration’s ears.

We’ve written in the past about Democrats’ overreaction to scrutiny of potentially inappropriate school materials while also wondering whether Republicans are responding in the least intrusive means. We’ll concede that some schools and left-leaning areas have been too lax with age-appropriate content moderation, but if the pendulum was too far on one side before, it has probably swung too far in the other direction now.

That seems to be the way our politics is operating these days though, and Republicans still contain a vice grip on Florida’s political system.

So long as that’s the case, the state seems ready to use its power to get districts aligned with state standards. Thus far, Kamoutsas is proving a willing vessel for carrying out that mission. Using modern social media tools may make some local leaders uncomfortable, but it’s part of modern technological means to win over public opinion. And Kamoutsas is taking full advantage.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Farmers. Florida’s farming community gets a double shout-out this week.

On Thursday, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, Senate President Ben Albritton and Senate President Pro Tempore Jason Brodeur spoke to media to highlight the state putting $38 million into the Farmers Feeding Florida initiative.

That initiative began in July and aims to put excess fresh produce, meat and other products into food banks for those in need.

The program hopes to eliminate wasted farm products while also providing sustenance to families in need during the Summer, when school meal plans aren’t available.

On top of that, the South Florida Water Management District also announced this past week that farmers in the Everglades Agricultural Area had once again easily surpassed their target for phosphorus reduction, dropping phosphorus runoff by 62% from the Everglades Forever Act’s baseline, which was set by measuring output from 1979 to 1988.

Those farmers have now averaged a 57% reduction since the legislation launched an incentive program in 1996 to encourage phosphorus reduction.

That has helped reduce water pollution in Florida, as phosphorus is one nutrient that allows toxic algae to thrive.

Feeding families in need and helping the environment stay clean — that’s work we can get behind.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Oyster harvesters. It’s been a long time coming, but oyster harvesters in the Apalachicola Bay appear to be back in business.

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) is set to allow a limited harvesting period of at least a month in January, but officials hope to begin offering a consistent seasonal harvesting period beginning later next year.

That’s welcome news for an industry that has been completely shut down since 2020, with the industry beginning to collapse years before that.

The move also comes after DeSantis in June signed legislation prohibiting oil drilling in certain sensitive parts of the state. That legislation covers Apalachicola Bay and came as proposals would have allowed drilling in the bay, worrying oyster harvesters anxious about the industry’s recovery.

FWC Commissioners still need to hold a final vote in November, but the period is expected to cover around 94 acres.

Yes, some critics have raised concerns about reopening, worrying a setback could lead to another full closure of the bay and harm the oyster population. Even staff originally recommended waiting until October to reopen the bay.

So Commissioners will need to be careful. But this is an industry that was known around the country earlier this century. They need help, and if the state can do that safely, then it should be welcome news.

The biggest winner: Jay Collins. Congratulations to the state’s new Lieutenant Governor, as Collins finally got the nod from DeSantis this past week.

Collins has a heroic backstory thanks in part to his service as an Army combat veteran, where he earned both a Purple Heart and Bronze Star. He’s also proven his conservative chops during his tenure in the Senate, positioning himself as a close DeSantis ally.

Now, this pick normally wouldn’t create any major policy rumblings. The Lieutenant Governor position in Florida doesn’t carry a whole lot of weight. If it did, DeSantis wouldn’t have left it open for six months after former Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez left to lead Florida International University.

But Team DeSantis has clearly demonstrated a concerted effort this week to push Collins into the public eye. DeSantis as part of his announcement released an epic video showcasing Collins. DeSantis brought him to press conferences and the two appeared together on Mark Levin’s radio show. The Governor even posted a nearly one-hour conversation with Collins on his government X account.

Might DeSantis assign Collins some pet project to boost him further? It’s possible. Look at how the administration is using Blaise Ingoglia to front the Florida Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

But more importantly, the question is, what’s the goal? The long-running speculation is that DeSantis wants a dog in the fight for Governor in 2026 to go against the Donald Trump-backed Byron Donalds.

For a while, First Lady Casey DeSantis’ name was floated. But a delay in announcing while allowing Donalds to stack cash and endorsements, combined with the still-developing Hope Florida scandal, seems to have lessened expectations that she’ll run.

That’s led observers to predict Collins will take up the mantle, and naming him as Lieutenant Governor is a way to raise his name ID — as much as the position can, at least.

Will it work? And is that even the plan here? We’ll see. But either way, Team DeSantis is intent on making sure Floridians know Collins’ name.

How that will affect a potential Governor’s race is a question for the future. Even if you’re of the mindset that DeSantis is playing second fiddle to Trump in terms of political power in the Sunshine State, DeSantis still has plenty of following, and bringing Collins closer into his orbit is a win for the Army vet.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Donna Deegan. Is Deegan’s hope for a second term in trouble?

It is if you believe the newest poll from The Tyson Group, which gives Republicans on a generic ballot a 5-point edge in the 2027 Jacksonville Mayor’s race.

Of course, we’re still a ways out from that contest, but this survey is nevertheless notable.

Conventional wisdom has said regional heavy hitters are holding off a run until 2031, when Deegan would face term limits should she win a second term. It’s not even clear which serious Republican would step up to the plate to challenge Deegan in the upcoming cycle, so perhaps her team is feeling optimistic about their chances.

But the poll from Ryan Tyson’s outfit shows there’s an opening. And there’s an appetite among Republicans to give Deegan a serious challenge, even though they would be going up against an incumbent. Why else would Ingoglia be so aggressively trying to message Florida DOGE work in Jacksonville as a magnifying glass on Deegan — even though the City Council there in charge of the budget is controlled by Republicans?

It’s because Republicans are testing political messaging for 2027. Combined with a poll from someone as respected as Tyson showing Republicans have a lane, Deegan better get ready for a bitter battle ahead.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Joe Geller. Geller is out as Bay Harbor Islands Town Attorney after a 6-1 vote spurred by criticism from Republican Rep. Fabián Basabe.

The move came after Basabe and others accused Geller of not giving his full attention to the job, as Geller also serves on the Miami-Dade School Board.

Wednesday’s vote came as Geller was on vacation in Italy, so make of that what you will.

If it was only Basabe publicly stumping to oust Geller, a Democrat who formerly served in the Legislature, it could be chalked up to simple politics. But multiple Town Council members echoed complaints about Geller’s work delays, with Eric Rappaport pointing to a three-page list of unfinished projects.

On the flip side, however, the Council did just increase the monthly fee of Greenspoon Marder, which employs Geller, from $15,000 to $17,250. So why do that if the Council was upset with his performance?

Nevertheless, all but one Council member voted to give Geller the boot, while retaining Greenspoon Marder with hopes of swapping in a substitute.

The biggest loser: Black bears. After a devastating 2015 hunt officials had to end in just two days, the FWC nevertheless approved another hunt this year, arguing the bear population now needs reining in.

There is some support for that notion, with the estimated population now topping 4,000, up from around 1,200 three decades prior, when Florida put a stop to a then-annual hunt.

But the move has garnered intense criticism from some animal advocates. There has been specific pushback over some methods approved for the hunt, such as hounding and archery — which can leave bears wounded and suffering — as well as baiting, which can attract other animals and disrupt the ecosystem.

Polling has shown the move is unpopular too, with clear majorities opposed to such a hunt.

But the FWC pushed forward unanimously anyway, authorizing a 23-day hunt in December with 187 permits being issued by lottery. Those permits are good for only one bear, hopefully keeping this season in check.

There is already a lawsuit in the works challenging the move. But it’s unclear how such an effort will fare in court. As we’ve mentioned, Florida has held these hunts before, and dozens of other states do as well.

But back to that 2015 hunt — it needed to be stopped swiftly as hundreds of bears were killed rapidly, including nursing mothers. We hope officials are organizing this in a way that doesn’t lead to a repeat.


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How much sense would a David Jolly-Gwen Graham ticket make for Governor?

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Could Gwen Graham add heft to David Jolly’s candidacy for Governor by becoming his running mate in Florida next year?

That question occurred when the former Tallahassee-based U.S. Representative appeared with Jolly last week during a political rally in Pinellas County that drew 400-plus attendees.

Jolly has been crisscrossing the Sunshine State since entering the Democratic race for Governor in June, and the event at 535 Nova — a wedding venue — was his 130th public gathering since he entered the contest, but the first time he appeared with Graham, the closest thing to Florida Democratic Party royalty. She’s a daughter of Bob Graham, the former Florida Governor and U.S. Senator who died last year at 87.

In an interview before the Thursday event, Gwen Graham, who served in Congress with Jolly from 2015-2017, said it was a “no-brainer” that she would support the former Republican for Governor.

“I would not be standing here if I didn’t know he could win,” she said. “This election is too important. We’ve got to have a candidate in November who can win so we can start reversing the damage that has been done to the state that I love and my father loved, and David can win. So, I’m going to do whatever I can to help him do that.”

Many political analysts considered Graham the favorite to capture the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2018, but she ended up losing to then Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum by 3 percentage points in that year’s Primary. She went on to serve in President Joe Biden’s administration as assistant secretary for legislation and congressional affairs at the U.S. Department of Education from 2021 to 2025.

In introducing Jolly to the audience in St. Petersburg last week, Graham said she was nervous because it was her first public appearance since the death of her father, who served as Florida’s 38th Governor from 1979 to 1987 and in the U.S. Senate from 1987 to 2005.

“I hear my dad’s voice in David’s commitment to the values that I have grown up with and lived,” she said in her speech.

“I hear David’s voice talking about what he cares about for the future of this state. So, while David knows this race will be difficult, the moment is too important. We must all stand together and do our part to define what Florida will look like as a state for the next century.”

Jolly deflected when asked before the event whether he was considering Graham to serve as his running mate, but did say, “We’re going to name a Lieutenant Governor candidate very early. We’re not going to wait until the Primary. And I hope we see Gwen Graham in office again in the state of Florida.”

Considering a Jolly-Graham ticket

Longtime Hillsborough County Democratic strategist Victor DiMaio served at one time as a Press Secretary for Bob Graham. Having Gwen Graham on Jolly’s ticket makes sense on several levels, he said.

“Gwen would be an excellent choice if that’s what (Jolly) decides to do,” he said. “It didn’t hurt other Governors who have selected women as Lieutenant Governors.”

Angela Birdsong, President of the Hillsborough County Democratic Black Caucus, believes Gillum would have defeated Ron DeSantis in 2018 if he had selected Graham, instead of Chris King, to serve as his running mate.

“She would bring in more conservative Democrats, and independents would love her,” Birdsong said of Graham’s appeal in 2026. When asked if that ticket might prove to be too moderate for Florida Democrats, Birdsong disagreed. “I’m with Jasmine Crockett — I think that we’re going to have to run some vanilla candidates for a while.”

(Crockett. a progressive Democratic member of Congress from Texas, said in an interview on Sirius/XM radio in May that, following the Democratic Party’s losses to Donald Trump with Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton, “we just want to win.”

(She added, “So, there’s a lot of people that are like, ‘You know what? Like, let’s go find the safest White boy we can find.’ I mean, I’m just saying.”)

Some political consultants believe a Democratic gubernatorial ticket consisting of Jolly, a former Republican, and Graham, a political moderate, may offer a General Election appeal to a Florida electorate that has moved considerably to the political right during the past eight years.

But it might be a dead letter within the more progressive precincts of the Florida Democratic Party.

Carolina Ampudia is a former Chair of the Democratic Progressive Caucus in Florida. She sees a Jolly-Graham ticket as “a pathetic retreat, not a step forward.”

“Jolly has a Republican record and ties to Scientology. Graham voted to fast-track the Keystone pipeline and built her career on centrism. Neither of them represents the communities that have been fighting on the frontlines for labor rights, racial justice, LGBTQ+ protections, public education, or environmental survival,” she said in a text message.

“Florida doesn’t need a rebranded Republican and a legacy name,” she continued. “We need leadership that reflects the courage and clarity of the people — not the fears of consultants and donors.”

Florida’s last two elected Governors, DeSantis and Rick Scott, both named women as their running mates (DeSantis selected Jeanette Nuñez in 2018 and Scott picked Jennifer Carroll in 2010). Charlie Crist selected female running mates in his two unsuccessful bids as a Democrat for Governor in 2014 and 2022 (Annette Taddeo in ’14 and Karla Hernández-Mats in ’22).

Meanwhile, discussion about a potential running mate for Jolly comes amid a challenge for the Democratic nomination by Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, who announced his candidacy a month ago. No major polls comparing the two Democrats have been published since his entry.

Uphill climb

On the GOP side, Southwest Florida U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is dominating in the polling. According to a survey of 800 likely Republican voters conducted by Florida pollster Ryan Tyson for the American Promise last month, Donalds, who has been endorsed by President Trump, received 43% support while a majority of the electorate (51%) remained unsure. Former House Speaker Paul Renner received 2% of the vote. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who has not formally entered the race, received 1%.

A poll conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab of 728 likely voters between Donalds and Jolly in October (before Demings entered the contest) showed Donalds leading both Jolly and Demings by double digits.

The eventual Democratic nominee will be a decided underdog. Florida has not elected a Democrat to lead the state since Lawton Chiles in 1994.

Even before he entered the race for Governor in June, Jolly had been talking about affordability, which has emerged as a buzzword in U.S. politics following Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York City Mayor’s race last month.

Thursday night, Jolly said concerns about the quality of life for everyday Floridians encompasses “more than affordability.”

“Affordability is, ‘Am I going to be able to afford rent or housing this week or this month.’ That is real. That’s a crisis. But we’re at a generational inflection point,” he said.

“I think that if Republicans continue with their policies, we’re going to lose the middle in the state of Florida and people are going to begin leaving at a quicker rate than we’re already seeing.”

Among the issues he addressed during his 50-minute-plus speech was the state’s universal school choice program, which expanded significantly in 2023 and was found by a state audit to feature “a myriad of accountability problems.”

“They don’t have to provide an individual education program,” Jolly said of private schools that accept state tuition subsidies.

“They don’t have to provide excellence in academics. Trigonometry in the 10th grade. Access to the trades. Access to the arts. They don’t have to provide any of that because there’s no standards on our choice schools. And so, just like Jeb Bush 25 years ago made the argument that he’s siding with Florida’s kids and families, guess what? Now we are. Because he used to say that public schools were leaving the kids behind. Now are choice schools leaving your kids behind? That’s what’s happening in the state of Florida.”

A plan to add funding for public education

Jolly has proposed a “10-year renaissance” in public education, advocating for a proposed constitutional amendment that would steer a portion of tourist development tax receipts into public education to pay teachers 30% more.

Tourist development taxes are levied in 62 of Florida’s 67 counties with rates ranging from 2% to 6% on sales. State law requires at least 40% of all tourist development tax revenues collected in a county to be spent to promote and advertise tourism.

“We build convention centers with it. We advertise beaches on the Chicago ‘L’ in January. … But guess what? We don’t have a crisis of convention centers in the state of Florida, we have a crisis in education,” Jolly said.

___

Reporting by Mitch Perry. Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Florida Phoenix maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Michael Moline for questions: [email protected].



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Ron DeSantis ‘most electable’ in 2028 GOP poll, but not first choice

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Republicans don’t want to vote for Gov. Ron DeSantis.

But they think others might.

That’s the takeaway from the latest Yale Youth Poll, which shows both Gov. Ron DeSantis and Secretary of State Marco Rubio mired in the mid single digits at 6% and 5%, respectively, far behind the 51% backing Vice President JD Vance for first-choice support.

But when the survey asked respondents who is more “electable,” the Governor and the nation’s leading diplomat are in better shape.

“In a MaxDiff test, Republicans viewed DeSantis (79%) and Vance (75%) as the most electable against a hypothetical Democrat in a General Election, followed by Rubio (71%) and Donald Trump Jr. (67%); results did not differ significantly between younger Republicans and all Republicans,” Yale notes.

The result here, particularly for DeSantis, could bolster the hopes of those who want him to run to succeed term-limited Donald Trump in 2028.

The Governor keeps getting that question from reporters but tells them he’s not looking, saying he has his “hands full” and that he’s “not thinking about anything” regarding his next political move.

Rubio is also an also-ran in the polls, compared to Vance.

However, President Donald Trump seems to think Rubio and Vance would be a functional ticket, one that could clear the still-evolving field of his potential successors.

“I’m not sure if anybody would run against those two. I think if they formed a group, it would be unstoppable,” the President said, according to POLITICO Playbook.



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Disney World is suing over its property tax bills for Magic Kingdom, Star Wars hotel, more

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Disney is suing over what it calls “excessive” property tax assessments for its four theme parks, the failed Star Wars hotel and a slew of other properties from the company’s vast real estate portfolio in Orange County.

The multibillion-dollar entertainment giant filed about 15 lawsuits late last week in Orange Circuit Court.

Disney wants to cancel the original 2025 tax bills, be issued new ones for reassessed amounts, then get reimbursed for its legal fees for contesting the property taxes. The Mouse is also asking the court to award “general relief as may be just and equitable,” according to the complaints.

The lawsuits accused Orange County Property Appraiser Amy Mercado’s Office of failing to use “professionally accepted appraisal practices,” although Disney’s complaints don’t provide details about its allegations.

“The assessments do not represent the just value of the Subject Property as of the lien date because they exceed the market value and therefore violates article VII, section 4 of the Florida Constitution,” the lawsuits said.

Disney has sued regularly over its property taxes for years. This time, however, the lawsuits come as state leaders are actively pushing to repeal or lower property taxes for residents.

Some state lawmakers are concerned about senior citizens and average Floridians struggling to afford their property taxes — although so far, officials aren’t specifically advocating for Disney to save money on its property tax bills in the ongoing debate for property tax relief.

The Walt Disney Co. is the most successful theme park operator in the world. Orlando’s Magic Kingdom is the crown jewel as the No. 1 most popular theme park on the planet, with an estimated 17.8 million visitors last year.

The Orange County Tax Collector did not immediately respond to questions from Florida Politics about how much Disney pays in property taxes or provide a breakdown of how much of that money funds local government, schools and the library system.

Disney said Magic Kingdom’s assessed value was at about $622 million, with Epcot at $795 million, Hollywood Studios at $639 million and Animal Kingdom at $495 million.

The site of the ill-fated Star Wars: Galactic Cruiser hotel was assessed at $38 million this year. Disney plans to turn the property into offices for Imagineers after the company shut down the hotel in 2023.

Other hotels being litigated over include the Grand Floridian Resort, accessed at $333 million, the Contemporary, at $243 million, and Coronado Springs, at $350 million.

Disney also did not immediately respond to requests for comment Monday for this story.



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