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Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 2.23.25

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OK there’s good news and bad news, Rays fans.

First, the good news! With the Rays stuck playing in a smaller venue at Tampa’s Steinbrenner Field due to damage from Hurricane Milton rendering the Trop unplayable, the Rays had the option of just jacking all prices through the roof given limited availability.

But then the owners remembered barely anyone actually goes to these games anyway and, voila, they are offering a limited amount of standing-room seats for each home game for just $20 a pop. That keeps things affordable for those looking to catch a game, or several, this season.

The bad news? It’s becoming increasingly unclear just how many more seasons the team will remain in the Tampa Bay area.

It’s now March, and the team has until the end of the month to confirm whether the planned new stadium in St. Petersburg is still a go.

We covered the series of unfortunate events that put this stadium plan in peril last year. The ball is now in the Rays’ court following votes by the city and county, but Rays’ brass has continuously said the plan on the table is no longer feasible due to delays prompted by the storms.

It took a miracle to kill what was otherwise a done deal. Will another miracle happen in time to save it?

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Political aficionados. When writing about the 2026 Governor’s race last week, we offered a few takeaways (some of which we’ll reinforce in a bit), but acknowledged there is still a long way to go a full year and a half out.

We did, however, close with this regarding the contest for the GOP nomination: “But we do know one thing: It will be an insanely entertaining Primary.”

Just a day later, Gov. Ron DeSantis confirmed that read by publicly throwing shade at President Donald Trump’s preferred candidate, Byron Donalds.

“You got a guy like Byron Donalds, he just hasn’t been a part of any of the victories that we’ve had here over the Left over these last years. He’s just not been a part of it,” DeSantis said.

Shots fired. But DeSantis wasn’t done. During that same presser in Tampa, he switched things up and started openly promoting his wife as a potential successor, despite previously downplaying such a possibility amid chatter she was considering a run.

“I won by the biggest margin that any Republican’s ever won a Governor’s race here in Florida. She would do better than me. Like, there’s no question about that. That would happen. And she’s somebody that has the intestinal fortitude and the dedication to conservative principles,” DeSantis said Monday. “Anything we’ve accomplished, she’d be able to take to the next level.”

That sure sounds like early posturing for a proxy rematch of DeSantis versus Trump.

There were some other notable comments made this past week, though nothing rose to the level of those Monday remarks, and by the end of the week, Team DeSantis had notably toned down their rhetoric. Donalds, too, isn’t yet taking the bait.

But as the race heats up, so too will the pressure to stand out among Republican voters. Make no mistake, there are going to be fireworks here. And those political junkies without a dog in the fight will get to sit back and enjoy the show.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: The Southern Group. TSG narrowly edged out Ballard Partners in total 2024 earnings, with TSG bringing in an estimated $35.46 million last year.

That was just enough to top Ballard’s $35.32 million, putting TSG atop the lobbying mountain in Florida.

TSG finished the year strong, hauling in an estimated $9.11 million in the fourth quarter. That gave them the distinction of being Florida’s only lobbying firm to report higher revenues in Q$ than in Q1.

The Southern Group also closed the year No. 1 in legislative lobbying revenues, but placed No. 2 in executive lobbying.

And, would you look at that: Another Session is about to begin. With plenty at stake in the two months ahead, TSG will likely be busy as ever and hauling in plenty of cash to compensate.

The biggest winner: Donalds. It’s the second week in a row Donalds has topped this list, and with good reason.

Last week, he landed here thanks to Trump endorsing the Congressman for Governor in 2026, putting Donalds in the driver’s seat in what will likely be a contested GOP Primary.

But that momentum doesn’t matter without some follow-through, and Donalds delivered on that front this week.

First, he formally launched his campaign, which was all but a formality after the Trump nod. But he did it in prime time on Fox News, earning him plenty of eyeballs while announcing on Sean Hannity’s program.

The next day came a flood of endorsements, including from several state legislators. Some of those names — state Sens. Randy Fine and Joe Gruters, state Rep. Juan Porras — have been thorns on DeSantis’ side recently, so it’s not a huge surprise to see them on Team Donalds.

But remember: During the DeSantis-Trump battle in the 2024 Presidential Primary, the Legislature largely sided with DeSantis, while Republicans in Florida’s congressional delegation mostly aligned with Trump. Gruters was the only Republican legislator on Team Trump from the get-go, while others eventually moved his way once the writing was on the wall.

That is to say, if multiple state lawmakers are already willing to buck the current Governor here, and if Florida’s Republican members of Congress eventually get involved, that’s a good sign for Donalds’ base of support.

And let’s not forget that Donalds made a savvy move by declining to take shots at DeSantis despite the Governor’s sniping toward him to start the week. Asked on the “Clay and Buck” show about whether he would be open to a DeSantis endorsement, Donalds said he would.

“I would love to earn it,” Donalds said.

“At the end of the day, I just want to be able to pick his brain,” he continued, speaking about DeSantis. “I know there’s a lot of advice he has. I want to be able to lean on that. And so I would love to be able to earn his support. And I think there’ll be a time for that.”

That’s a posture that winners take, while those behind often feel the need to get on the attack and flip the status quo. Read into that what you will.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: State parks. Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency is continuing with its slash-and-burn approach to federal spending, and now it seems like widespread job cuts within the National Park Service are going to affect Florida’s outdoor offerings.

Per Sommer Brugal of Axios Miami, Florida parks workers have begun being let go. The main jobs affected, according to Association of National Park Rangers Executive Director Bill Wade, are “fee collectors and those who staff volunteers, arrange for site visits, like school trips, and oversee park programming,” per the Axios report.

That includes at least 12 firings at Everglades National Park, three at Biscayne National Park and another at Big Cypress National Preserve.

Trump did open the door to hiring more seasonal workers who could help fill in the gaps. Just how much that will affect operations at these facilities remains to be seen.

But for a state so reliant on tourism and the outdoors, this could be a particular gut punch for Florida. These indiscriminate cuts have already led to headaches elsewhere, let’s hope the same isn’t true here.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Hillsborough Young Republicans. Amid news that controversy lightning rods Andrew and Tristan Tate landed in Florida this week as they face serious criminal charges in Romania, DeSantis made the right move and expressed outrage, and floated a potential investigation, stemming from the move.

Apparently, the Hillsborough YRs didn’t get the memo.

“As free speech absolutists, the Tate’s haven’t been formally convicted of any crimes and are welcome to speak to our group,” the organization posted on X. “We’re old enough to remember when a *’Convicted Felon.’* won the Presidency.”

Yes, that’s a Young Republicans chapter inviting accused human traffickers the privilege of speaking at one of their gatherings.

But for a second, let’s ignore the criminal charges — which, for Andrew, include rape. They’re just charges. The brothers haven’t been convicted of anything yet and have denied the allegations.

You know what they can’t deny? That they are pretend tough-guy douchebags selling a toxic, ignorant selfish brand of “masculinity” (and we are really leaning into the quotations around “masculinity” here when describing what these guys preach) to impressionable young men looking for direction in life.

It is completely natural for young men to want to feel assertive and respected, and there are plenty of healthy ways of doing that. Preaching outward misogynism and some 19th-century definition of being an alpha male isn’t it. The Tates shell all of this nonsense out for exorbitant prices, again taking advantage of aimless young men. They have also bragged about manipulating women to start a porn enterprise. How conservative!

The Tampa chapter’s move earned an outright rebuke from the larger Florida Young Republicans organization, and several conservative leaders slapped down the silly argument that this is about free speech.

“Free speech absolutism isn’t mutually exclusive with discernment!” wrote Jenna Ellis.

And that’s just it. No one is trying to make it illegal for the Tates to spout off online. But the people you choose to invite to your organization show the types of things your organization values.

Does the Tampa chapter really have no better representative of conservative values they can invite? Or are they just trying to ride a wave of outrage for clout online?

In that respect, they line up perfectly with the Tates’ schtick.

The biggest loser: Insurance companies. A bombshell report obtained by the Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times appears to show that insurers have shuffled around billions of dollars to affiliate organizations all while claiming they were losing money.

A quick pause before we say anything further. Those in The Process (ourselves included) can get into a bubble and a bit of groupthink. What we think is important often isn’t what the average person thinks is important. We love the ins and outs of government. Many people barely read the news.

Some issues, however, do break through. And trust us when we say: People have been pissed off about the state’s broken insurance market for years. And that’s before this report came out which, if true, shows insurance companies appear to have duped Floridians to bilk them for untold sums of money in rising rates.

There is some level of greed present in a lot of markets, and in moderation, many consumers won’t notice or they will be too powerless to do anything about it.

But this issue, so personal to so many due to the devastation from storms in recent years, is not something that people are going to let go.

Lawmakers have also been ready, willing and able to hand out prizes to these companies in the form of “tort reform,” limiting suits against insurance companies to beg and plead insurers to reenter the market and, theoretically, drive down rates.

But there are far more punitive options available to help adjust the market. If public opinion turns enough, perhaps lawmakers will stop playing nice and get tough on behalf of Floridians.


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Tina Polsky, Lindsay Cross hope to make it easier for people to vote after disasters

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A pair of Florida Democrats are pushing legislation to make it easier for people to vote after a natural disaster. Sen. Tina Polsky and Rep. Lindsay Cross have filed bills (SB 1486 and HB 1317) in their respective chambers to afford additional opportunities to vote in disaster areas.

Dubbed the “Disaster-Affected Voter Bill of Rights,” the measure would ensure all voters living in communities impacted by a disaster, such as a hurricane, have an equal opportunity to vote as those in areas unaffected by the disaster.

The measure would allow voters to call the local Supervisor of Elections to request a vote-by-mail ballot at a temporary address. Currently, displaced residents must submit a signed statewide form. The bills would also allow voters to have their already requested mail ballot forwarded by the U.S. Postal Service.

The measures would allow voters to return ballots to an elections office in a different county or at polling places on Election Day, a perk not currently allowed that would provide displaced voters the opportunity to cast a ballot where they are living temporarily in cases where damage to their home or community requires them to relocate to a friend, family, rental, or other living situation necessitated by the disaster.

Additionally, the measure would give voters an extra two days to request or return a ballot or to cure any signature issues with a vote-by-mail ballot. It would also provide for early voting 15 days before the election, through Election Day, with mobile polling locations as an option. The bills would open the option for additional early voting sites, offer intake stations beyond early voting hours, and allow ballots to be held at local offices in areas where post offices are impacted.

The additional voting measures would apply to any county designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency or the Governor as a declared state of emergency.

“Natural disasters shouldn’t prevent voters from casting a ballot. During the aftermath of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, thousands of residents in my district were scrambling to pick up the pieces and rebuild their lives. With their polling places also underwater, the last thing they needed to worry about is where, how, or if they could vote. As a state, we should be looking at ways to make it easier for people impacted by disasters to exercise one of their fundamental freedoms as Americans – voting. These changes will ensure that, come hell or high water, Floridians can exercise their right to vote,” said Cross, whose St. Pete-based district was heavily impacted last hurricane season by back-to-back storms Helene and Milton.

Polsky likewise said voters “deserve the peace of mind that, even in the face of natural disasters like hurricanes, they will be able to easily and fully participate” in the democratic process.

“The response to a natural disaster amidst the election season should be applied uniformly. All voters deserve protection and ease of access when facing emergencies,” she said.

The measures, filed on Thursday, have already garnered support from voting rights groups.

“The unfortunate reality in Florida is that elections often coincide with hurricane season,” All Voting is Local Action Florida State Director Brad Ashwell said. “What doesn’t have to be a reality, however, is natural disasters becoming politicized by the state that will ultimately get to pick and choose which counties’ voters get help and which ones don’t. This bill ensures that a hurricane wouldn’t automatically make it harder for Floridians to vote, as it would equitably spread relief measures across the state like extended vote times and grant more flexible vote-by-mail options while ensuring that election officials have the resources they need.”

Added Amy Keith, executive director for Common Cause Florida: “It is common sense to make sure that voters in all counties affected by a disaster have the same opportunities to vote. Our state prides itself on common sense and freedom – let’s ensure those in disaster areas, regardless of which county they live in, have the same access to the ballot as they recover and rebuild their lives.”

The Southern Poverty Law Center is also on board.

“Florida voters who suffer from the consequences of natural disasters deserve to have an equal opportunity to participate in our elections,” the group’s Florida Policy Associate, Aurelie Colon Larrauri, said. “Last year’s hurricane season was the most destructive to date, forcing many Floridians to evacuate due to fear of flooding, tornadoes, and a multitude of other reasons that led to displacement during and after the storm. That is why we are grateful to Rep. Lindsay Cross and Sen. Tina Polsky for sponsoring the Disaster-Affected Voter Bill of Rights, which ensures that all Florida voters can cast their ballot in upcoming elections.”


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Bettors say there’s a 66% chance Casey DeSantis runs in ’26

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Yes, a prediction market is already live.

Two out of three ain’t bad. And people putting money on Casey DeSantis running for Governor say there’s a 2/3 chance she enters the race.

As of Monday morning, a “yes” share for the First Lady entering the gubernatorial race to carry on Ron DeSantis’ legacy for what would effectively be a third term is priced at 66 cents on Polymarket.

This isn’t the high-water mark for the First Lady. A “yes” share was priced at 69 cents Sunday evening. But the minor ebb reflects normal market flux, rather than a collapse in investor confidence.

And why wouldn’t investors be confident, given the strong signals given that Casey DeSantis continues to encourage speculation as a potential candidate?

On Saturday, the First Couple breakfasted with President Donald Trump, according to Meridith McGraw of The Wall Street Journal.

Trump has endorsed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds in the race. But that doesn’t seem to dissuade the DeSantises from testing the waters.

“To quote the late Yogi Berra,” the First Lady said Friday when asked if she was running, “if you see a fork in the road, take it.”

The Governor amplified the memorably quotable former New York Yankee, batting clean up in his own quippy comments after hers at Florida International University.

“You guys can read into that what you will,” he said. “I think she’s leaving that to the imagination and to start talking about good old Yogi Berra, because you know he had a lot of very perceptive comments.”

Berra isn’t the only dead celeb with very perceptive comments, meanwhile.

The Governor has repeatedly told the story of conservative talk radio pioneer Rush Limbaugh saying years back that Casey is more conservative than he is, establishing a contrast to Donalds, whom the Governor says hasn’t contributed to victories “over the Left” in the state.


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Donald Trump’s speech to Congress comes as he wields vast power almost daring lawmakers, courts to stop him

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President Donald Trump arrives this week on Capitol Hill to deliver a speech to Congress, a coequal branch of government he has bulldozed past this first month in office, wielding unimaginable executive power to get what he wants, at home and abroad.

The Tuesday night address will unfold in the chamber where lawmakers crouched in fear four years ago while a mob of his supporters roamed the halls, and where Nancy Pelosi, Liz Cheney and others vowed to prevent him from ever holding office again. It’s the same House chamber where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy received a hero’s welcome for fighting off Russia’s invasion, in the first year of that war.

Since his reelection, Trump has blazed across the federal government, dismantling not just norms and traditions but the very government itself. With billionaire aide Elon Musk by his side, he is firing thousands of federal workers, closing agencies established by law and publicly badgering Zelenskyy while positioning the U.S. closer to Russia.

As legal cases mount, more than 100 so far challenging the legality of the Trump administration’s actions, the Republican president is daring the other branches of government — Congress and the courts — to try to stop him.

“This whole thing about approaching a constitutional crisis is not quite true,” said Rep. James Clyburn, of South Carolina, a senior Democrat in the House. “We’re already there.”

Trump revels in going it alone, but there are limits

Reveling in the might of going it alone, Trump is about to test the limits of his executive branch authority as he turns to Congress to deliver tax cuts and other key aspects of his agenda. Only Congress, by law, can allocate funds — or pull them back — but the Trump administration’s actions have been testing that foundational rule, enshrined in the Constitution.

Trump also needs lawmakers to fund the government and ensure federal operations don’t shut down when money runs out March 14. And he will need Congress to pass legislation to prevent an economically damaging debt default, something he has pushed lawmakers to resolve.

While Trump enjoys the rare sweep of power in Washington, with the Republicans controlling the White House, the House and the Senate, he relies on political fear as well as favor to motivate lawmakers. With Musk having poured $200 million into electing Trump, the President has a ready patron whose vast political funds can influence any resisters.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has positioned himself as a partner to the President, has said he’s excited about what Trump is accomplishing in rooting out waste, fraud and abuse to downsize government.

“Fireworks,” is what Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, said he expects from Trump’s speech, dismissing as “nonsense” concerns that Congress is ceding too much power to the White House.

“The President is doing what he said on the campaign trail he would do,” Johnson said Sunday on Fox News Channel.

Democrats, after their stunning rejection by voters, are slowly beginning to mount a resistance. They are fighting Trump in court, with amicus briefs to protect federal workers, and filing legislation to serve as a check on what House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York calls the “parade of horribles.”

But as the minority party, they are limited in their power. Jeffries brushed off calls for Democrats to boycott Trump’s address. “It’s the people’s House. It’s the House of Representatives,” he said on CNN.

Instead, Democrats are inviting fired federal workers as their guests.

Tax cuts and mass deportation funds all at stake

One of Trump’s top campaign promises, extending the tax breaks approved during his first term in 2017, is posing one of his party’s biggest challenges.

Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota are marshalling the GOP majority to deliver what Trump calls a “big, beautiful bill” extending those tax breaks — and providing new ones. But Republicans also want some $2 trillion in budget cuts with changes to Medicaid and other services that millions of Americans count on, which Trump could decide is too much to bear.

Trump’s other big campaign promise — the biggest deportation operation in U.S. history — is running short of cash, and border czar Tom Homan has implored Republicans on Capitol Hill to loosen the purse strings to give the Homeland Security and Defense departments the money needed.

Those budget debates all come as the Trump administration is ripping the federal government apart and freezing federal funds. It’s challenging the Nixon-era Impoundment Control Act, which prevents the executive branch from halting allocations Congress has already approved, setting up a showdown that could wind up at the Supreme Court.

“Testing the boundaries a little, I would expect that,” said Rep. Steve Womack, an Arkansas Republican, who said he supports much of what the Trump administration is doing, to a point.

“We’ve got separate but equal branches of government,” said Womack, whose committee controls vast funding. “What we don’t want is, we don’t want a constitutional crisis.”

LIves, livelihoods and the echoes of Jan. 6

It’s not just constitutional issues at stake but the lives and livelihoods of Americans. Communities depend on federal dollars — for health care clinics, school programs and countless contracts for companies large and small that provide goods and services to the federal government. Many are watching that money evaporate overnight.

Republican Sen. Jim Justice of West Virginia, a former Governor, said voters back home have concerns even as they support the idea of downsizing government.

“People are always afraid of the dark,” he said, citing potential changes to Medicaid and preschool programs in particular. “Let’s give it time to see really what materializes before we run through the streets with our hair on fire.”

And the threat of Jan. 6, 2021, hangs over the building.

Trump will stand on the dais where Pelosi, then the House speaker, was whisked to safety as the mob ransacked the Capitol. He will look out over the rows of lawmakers, some of whom blocked the back door to the chamber as Capitol Police were fending off rioters, steps away from where Trump supporter Ashli Babbitt was shot and killed. Visitors will be watching from the galleries where representatives crouched on the floor in gas masks before being evacuated.

The Supreme Court granted Trump’s presidential actions wide immunity from prosecution, and the four-count criminal indictment against him over Jan. 6 was withdrawn once he was reelected, in line with Justice Department policy.

In one of his first acts on Inauguration Day, Trump issued a sweeping pardon of all the rioters, including extremist leaders Stuart Rhodes and Enrique Tarrio, who were convicted of sedition. They have both returned to make appearances at the Capitol since their release from prison.

Sen. Peter Welch, a Vermont Democrat, was in the Capitol on Jan. 6.

“I acknowledge that he won and he’s got the right to use all the executive authority to pursue his policies. He doesn’t have a right to exceed constitutional authority,” Welch said. “So how he does this should be of great concern to all of us.”

___

Republished with permission of The Associated Press.


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