Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 2.22.26

Another week, another series of signs that the 2026 Governor’s race is Byron Donalds’ to lose.

With Ron DeSantis continuing to sit out the GOP Primary, any serious challengers to Donalds’ front-runner status are continuing to flounder.

A survey early last week from the North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab showed Donalds with an advantage even if First Lady Casey DeSantis enters the race. Another poll later in the week from Ryan Tyson’s American Promise gave Donalds a nearly 40-point lead, with James Fishback at 5%, Jay Collins at 4% and Paul Renner at 2%.

In other words, the rest of the field is fighting for scraps.

It’s no wonder Donalds was able to court the support of nine more state Senators to close the week, building on an already substantial roster of backers that includes, of course, President Donald Trump.

There is scuttle in some circles complaining about Donalds being “anointed.” And as a rule, we prefer seeing competitive Primaries as well where candidates can make their case before voters and the best person may win. Of course, no one is preventing that from happening here.

But we also need to call it like we see it, and Donalds is dominating. And to the extent some Republican voters aren’t thrilled with Republican leaders almost uniformly throwing support behind Donalds, that’s not Donalds’ fault. That’s not the fault of those Republican leaders.

You can blame the other candidates for waiting until Donalds had wrapped up extensive backing to enter the contest or, in the case of Casey DeSantis, not entering at all. You can blame Team DeSantis, the only GOP power structure that can even arguably be compared to Trump’s circle, for just seemingly throwing in the towel and never getting behind an alternative.

And, of course, Democrats can blame decades of mistakes by their party for giving this state up to Republicans for the foreseeable future.

If there’s a problem with Donalds securing a stranglehold on this race too early, maybe that means these Primaries just start earlier than most of us would like to think. But Donalds is continuing to show his strength as 2026 moves on, and time is running out to change that narrative.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Tampa Bay Rays. We’re still not in “sure thing” territory for the new Rays stadium, but the early momentum for a deal is continuing.

Florida’s Cabinet voted this week to transfer 22 acres of state-owned land to Hillsborough College in Tampa, clearing a major logistical hurdle in the Rays’ long-sought plan to build a new ballpark and mixed-use development district on the Dale Mabry campus.

That land transfer gives the Rays’ fans hope that this is a real shot at resolving the future of a franchise that has played in Tropicana Field since its inception in 1998 and has struggled for a suitable, long-term home ever since.

Under the new plan, the state retains the right to reclaim the land if key components of the stadium project aren’t built within five years — a smart safeguard. But Rays leaders are hoping to have a stadium built in three years.

Rays CEO Ken Babby called the approval “undoubtedly a big moment for Tampa Bay,” and for a franchise that has endured years of limbo on its stadium future, this land transfer represents a tangible piece of the puzzle needed to advance negotiations with local governments and private partners.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Richard McCullough. Florida State University just doubled down on stability and momentum by extending President McCullough’s contract three more years — a clear sign from Trustees that his leadership is paying off and worth keeping in place through 2029.

McCullough has steered FSU through a period of record gains in rankings, student success and research prominence. Under his watch, the university climbed to its highest-ever national ranking — No. 51 overall and No. 21 among public universities, per U.S. News and World Report.

On the academic front, FSU’s freshman retention rate hit a record 99.2%, with graduation rates reaching historic highs. The university’s average federal student loan debt also remains among the lowest of peer research institutions — a noteworthy achievement in an era of rising college costs.

Research has surged as well. Expenditures have jumped nearly 50% since McCullough arrived, pushing the university into higher tiers of competitive research activity and attracting major investments.

His tenure has also seen ambitious capital improvements and program growth, including the opening of the Herbert Wertheim Center for Business Excellence — made possible by a $65 million philanthropic gift in FSU history.

That’s quite a track record to build upon, and FSU Trustees are confident McCullough can do just that.

The biggest winner: Gallop Franklin. The House Democratic Caucus voted this week to designate Franklin as their Leader for the 2028-2030 legislative term, putting the Tallahassee Democrat in line to guide his colleagues through future elections and Legislative Sessions.

As Leader-designate, he’ll be responsible for organizing caucus strategy, managing campaign operations in the 2028 election cycle, and positioning House Democrats to gain ground in a chamber long dominated by Republicans.

His track record helps explain why his peers entrusted him with that role. A pharmacist by training and an alumnus of Florida A&M University and Cornell University, Franklin has championed legislation on health care access, higher education, and economic opportunity — issues that are core to Democratic messaging in Florida.

Franklin also represents one of the few Democratic strongholds in the House, winning re-election handily in his Tallahassee district and demonstrating political strength.

Franklin will follow Rep. Christine Hunschofsky, who will serve as House Democratic Leader for the 2026-28 term.

In a political environment where every pickup matters and unity is essential for Democrats seeking to break through Republican supermajorities, securing a leader with Franklin’s blend of policy chops, legislative experience and campaign responsibility can’t hurt.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: CD 2 Dems. Democratic hopes of flipping Florida’s 2nd Congressional District just took a major hit.

Former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham — widely viewed as the strongest Democratic candidate to run in a now-open contest — announced she won’t run in 2026, leaving Democrats scrambling for a recruit with comparable name recognition and fundraising pull.

Graham’s potential candidacy was the rare instance of a Democratic hopeful with instant statewide visibility, deep local roots and a credible track record in a district where Democrats need a top-tier candidate to overcome Republicans’ advantage. She previously held the seat from 2015 to 2017, ran statewide in the Democratic Primary for Governor in 2018, and maintained a broad network of supporters and donors. Because of that résumé, she was seen as the best shot Democrats had at contesting a seat that Republicans have held firmly since her departure more than a decade ago.

With Graham bowing out, the Democratic Party’s ability to mount a campaign that can match the organizational strength and fundraising muscle of a built-in Republican lean. Recruiting another candidate with even a fraction of Graham’s profile is going to be a steep climb.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Party swappers. Florida is set to receive more authority to boot political flip-floppers from the ballot.

The Legislature this week unanimously passed a crackdown on candidates who switch parties too late in the cycle. State law already requires candidates running in partisan Primaries to be a member of that particular party for at least a year before qualifying.

While that restriction is already on the books, enforcement measures have been lacking.

The new legislation, which still must be signed by DeSantis, would make clear that other qualified candidates have standing to sue and get a court to remove a candidate who changes party affiliation too late in the process from the ballot.

The crackdown was swift and decisive after several instances in recent years drew scorn from both sides of the aisle. Now, candidates really will be pressed to have their partisan affiliations in order.

The biggest loser: Alligator Alcatraz. The much-ballyhooed Everglades detention facility that became a signature project for Florida’s immigration agenda is increasingly threatening to be a financial boondoggle.

The DeSantis administration has said publicly that the state expected the federal government to reimburse the hundreds of millions of dollars it took to build and operate the immigration detention facility. And for a time, it looked like a $608 million reimbursement was set.

But this week, Attorney General James Uthmeier said in a court filing that those funds may not “materialize.” The filing said repayment is “likely,” but didn’t say it was guaranteed.

Uthmeier continued the qualifiers in a Friday news conference, saying he believes the state will “largely” be reimbursed.

The feds, meanwhile, are now saying they won’t pay for building the facility and would only help cover operational costs.

Alligator Alcatraz has been a source of controversy already — environmental groups sued over its placement in a national preserve, critics branded it inhumane, and civil liberties organizations highlighted troubling conditions inside the facility.

Now, the state’s gamble on federal dollars may be unraveling, which would leave Republican leadership to defend what increasingly looks like a costly and risky stunt.

The Republican base is still going to eat up stunts like this regardless of the price tag. But as costs continue to be a major concern for Floridians, it’s fair to ask whether this money could have gone to a more useful project rather than the state doing the Trump administration’s dirty work and getting stuck with the bill on top of it.