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Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 2.16.25

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Could NASA headquarters make a landing here in the Sunshine State?

Gov. Ron DeSantis made a voyage to Washington this week to pitch President Donald Trump on that and other topics. And as the new administration is clearly comfortable with slashing and burning the established order in Washington, DeSantis clearly senses an opening.

“Don’t build that new NASA building in D.C.,” DeSantis said while speaking here ahead of his trip.

The Governor instead wants a new headquarters in Cape Canaveral, pointing to ongoing renovations building up the base there already. And he’s putting it in language that Trump and Department of Government Efficiency head (or not?) Elon Musk can understand:

“Relocate the headquarters to Brevard County … you absolutely would save a lot of money. I think you’d probably save about a billion dollars, quite frankly, so we should do it. I think it’d be good for Florida if that happened,” DeSantis said.

If Trump is serious about reducing the bureaucracy in Washington, this move has plenty of potential. The cuts so far have been way too careless, and there is an argument to keeping certain operations in the central hub of our federal government.

But firing rockets? That’s what Cape Canaveral does best. And putting NASA’s top brass adjacent to the nation’s main launch hub makes a lot of sense.

DeSantis may have crashed and burned elsewhere this week (more on that later) but on this he’s dead right.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Lauren Melo. On Tuesday, Melo filed to run to succeed former Senate President Kathleen Passidomo in Senate District 28.

By Wednesday, Melo had Passidomo’s endorsement.

“She cares genuinely about the communities we represent, especially the most vulnerable. Her deep-rooted conservative values and hard work ethic make Lauren Melo the best candidate for Florida Senate District 28, and I am proud to endorse her campaign,” Passidomo said.

Melo is forgoing a final House term to run for the Senate, and when a well-regarded leader in Republican politics voices support for a preferred successor, it usually works out pretty well.

The race isn’t completely over yet, with former Republican Rep. Bob Rommel also running, and with significant financial resources.

But with Passidomo behind her, expect Melo to get plenty of institutional backing that will allow her to grow her war chest significantly in the year-plus before the August 2026 Primary.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: James Uthmeier. Florida’s new Attorney General will now get to enter next cycle with incumbency and potentially serve in the role for around a decade.

We’ve known for weeks that Uthmeier would enter this role after DeSantis named his predecessor, Ashley Moody, to fill Marco Rubio’s Senate seat. But it wasn’t until Monday that Uthmeier was actually sworn in.

And in his very first week, Uthmeier got a seat at the table on the State Immigration Enforcement Council, appointing his preferred law enforcement representative to the panel. This is far from the last time we’re going to hear about the state’s immigration enforcement efforts, and Uthmeier will have a front-row seat.

“No empty rhetoric, no posturing, no excuses,” Uthmeier promised during his swearing-in ceremony.

Already, the Attorney General’s Office secured a 35-year prison sentence for a man accused of possession of child porn. Talk about moving fast.

And we also want to give Uthmeier some credit for a shrewd shot DeSantis took this week with an unveiling of a new George Washington statue in the Capitol Rotunda. The move was part of a planned series of events across Florida ahead of America’s 250th birthday. But it also allowed DeSantis to take a veiled shot at Trump, who recently tried framing himself as a king.

That led to these comments from DeSantis about Washington. “He could have been the king of the United States of America if he wanted to do it,” DeSantis said.

“He could have just ceremonially been elected as long as he wanted to, but he set the precedent of a two-term limit. And what he was trying to show was that he was not indispensable, that ultimately the Republic would go on and that you could elect different people to office. And that was a tradition that stood in this country until 1940 and then was eventually put in part of the Constitution.”

To the extent Uthmeier was involved in shaping those remarks, he deserves credit, especially considering how dirty Trump did DeSantis later in the week …

The biggest winner: Byron Donalds. Speaking of which, congratulations to the next Governor of Florida.

We are about three months from the last election and have nearly a full cycle to go until votes are cast in 2026. But the most important event in the Governor’s race may have already happened.

Just hours after reports emerged that DeSantis planned to pitch Trump in person against endorsing Donalds for Governor, Trump did just that ahead of DeSantis’ trip to Washington.

“Byron Donalds would be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida and, should he decide to run, will have my Complete and Total Endorsement,” Trump posted in part. “RUN, BYRON, RUN!”

That led to a coy remark from Donalds. “President Trump is Making America Great Again. I’m committed to working with him to Keep Florida Great. Announcement coming soon!” Donalds wrote on X.

We’ll have more on the DeSantis angle shortly, but to say this gives Donalds an advantage in the 2026 GOP Primary is a massive understatement.

As beloved as DeSantis may be in Florida, Trump is the leader of the party and will still be well away from lame-duck status when the 2026 contest rolls around.

That makes Donalds a heavy favorite to secure the GOP nomination. And with Republicans dominating the state the past two cycles, we are highly skeptical at this point that Democrats can come out on top in 2026.

Donalds hasn’t made an official announcement yet, but expect him to make a move soon and start ramping up his operation, which already features some strong Trump allies.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Florida agriculture. It’s been a rough period for the citrus industry, with declining yields over the past few years showing little sign of rebounding this harvest season.

The most recent report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed a drop in production projections this month, with analysts forecasting just 11.5 million boxes of oranges being produced.

For context, Florida produced 41.2 million boxes in the 2021-22 season. But those numbers have been falling due to a confluence of factors — including devastating storms and the ill effects of citrus greening — dropping to 15.8 million boxes in 2022-23 and just under 18 million last year.

Yet this year’s projection would represent a new low.

For grapefruit, tangerines and tangelos, the numbers aren’t much better. The grapefruit forecast sits at 1.1 million boxes, down from 3.33 million in 2021-22, 1.81 million in 2022-23 and 1.79 million in 2023-24.

For tangerines and tangelos, this year’s estimate of 350,000 boxes would also be a drop from 750,000 in 2021-22, 480,000 in 2022-23 and 450,000 in 2023-24.

Florida TaxWatch compiled a report weeks ago detailing the downfall of Florida’s citrus industry. And if state and national leaders don’t do something significant — and soon — it’s unclear how long “Florida” and “oranges” will be synonymous, a stunning change for those of us born and raised here.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Matt Gaetz. For Donalds’ gain, there were two major losers in the still-as-yet hypothetical 2026 Governor’s race.

The first is Gaetz, whose downfall we noted in recent months but who we thought, despite all of his struggles, could still make a comeback in 2026 should the man in the White House throw his support to Gaetz in the gubernatorial contest.

Well, so much for that.

And it really makes us question what the whole point of Gaetz’s U.S. Attorney bid was ever about if not to shield him from further scrutiny in Congress (a move which didn’t exactly come to pass anyway), seeing as he and Trump quickly pulled the plug on his bid.

Now, Gaetz is left with a show on One America News and a reputation that’s going to be hard to rehabilitate. It’s unclear if he has another chapter in public service or what it could even be.

The biggest loser: Ron and Casey DeSantis. Speaking of murky political futures, the DeSantises must be absolutely steaming right now.

Again, Trump is just straight up toying with DeSantis at this point given the timing of his Donalds endorsement.

And while the Governor has in the past downplayed Casey DeSantis’ desire to run for Governor, make no mistake: They wanted this to happen in 2026.

Do they still go through with it and set up another showdown with Trump? Maybe! Polling for Casey DeSantis has been strong, even among Trump supporters.

But there are 18 months until the Primary and outside of freaks like us, people are not paying attention to this race yet. When voters are hit over the head repeatedly that Trump has made a pick in this race, that polling is going to change.

Does that mean it’s impossible for Team DeSantis to get a win over Trump in 2026? Nope. But considering how their last electoral showdown went, we aren’t betting on it.

Ron DeSantis still has a lot of levers to pull in his final years as Governor. He’s not quite a lame-duck. But as the last few weeks showed, the Legislature is no longer a compliant arm of the executive branch, so the Governor’s hand is not going to get stronger in the years ahead.

Gaetz has been a master of grabbing attention but has always been a bit of a fringe figure. So him having a questionable future in politics isn’t a surprise.

That DeSantis, the nation’s most popular Governor among Republicans by far just a few years ago, does not have a clear next step in politics is baffling. If he and Casey DeSantis do go head-to-head with Trump again in 2026 and fail, expect his star to fall even further.

But we do know one thing: It will be an insanely entertaining Primary.


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USDA scholarship for students at historically Black colleges suspended

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A federal scholarship aimed at boosting students from underserved and rural areas attending historically Black colleges and universities has been put on hold.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture suspended the 1890 Scholars Program, which provided recipients with full tuition and fees for students studying agriculture, food or natural resource sciences at one of 19 universities, known as the 1890 land grant institutions.

It’s not clear exactly when the program was suspended, but some members of Congress first issued statements criticizing the suspension of the program on Thursday.

“The 1890 Scholars Program has been suspended pending further review,” the Department of Agriculture said in a post on the program’s website.

The suspension coincides with a funding freeze President Donald Trump’s administration instituted. Administration officials had said the pause was necessary to review whether spending aligned with Trump’s executive orders on issues like climate change and diversity, equity and inclusion programs.

A spokesperson for the department said Saturday in an email to The Associated Press that “every scholar — over 300 — regardless of matriculation date, was retained to finish their studies and complete their work with the Department.” The spokesperson added that Secretary Brooke Rollins will review the scholarship program, its mission and its metrics to ensure taxpayer resources are used efficiently.

The funding freeze has been challenged in court, with a temporary hold on the executive action already in place.

The affected universities include Alabama A&M, Florida A&M, North Carolina A&T and Tuskegee University in Alabama, among others.

The scholarship program dates to 1992, but 1890 in the title refers to the Second Morrill Act of 1890, which established historically Black colleges and universities.

Eligibility rules include being a U.S. citizen with a GPA of 3.0 or better, along with acceptance to one of the 19 1890 land grant universities. Eligible students must also study agriculture or related fields and “demonstrate leadership and community service,” according to the department’s site.

In October, the department said it had set aside $19.2 million for the program. In fiscal year 2024, 94 students were awarded scholarships, the department said.

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Republished with permission of The Associated Press.


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Florida TaxWatch economic forecast shows upward trends, with some areas of concern

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Florida TaxWatch’s new analysis for economic growth in the Sunshine State in the next half decade shows steady increases. But there are areas of concern.

TaxWatch, primarily a government spending watchdog group, produces quarterly economic forecasts projecting economic development in the state along with analysis provided by the consulting firm Regional Economic Consulting Group (REC Group). And the third quarter forecast of 2024 that was published recently this month shows steady growth through 2030.

“Fueled by a strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development, Florida’s economy has grown to nearly $1.5 trillion,” said Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic Calabro. “Despite this impressive growth, Florida slipped from the fifteenth largest economy in the world to the sixteenth, which is why Florida TaxWatch continues to examine if Florida’s impressive economic growth is sustainable over the next several years.”

The economic gross domestic product (GDP) forecast stretches from 2024 through 2030 with several key indicators under consideration. The TaxWatch forecast in the next five years shows GDP growth dropping from 3.5% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025. That rate remains about the same for most of the next five years, though the projection is for a drop to 3% in 2030.

“The difference between the growth rate of Florida’s GDP and the real GDP is becoming smaller. This suggests that the rate of inflation is expected to decrease in the coming years,” the forecast said.

The number of new jobs created in the state will definitely go up each year, according to the projection. But the pace of job growth could waffle. The study found there were 178,600 new jobs created in 2024, that figure will drop to about 121,900 in 2025. The forecast shows a steady decline in that figure falling to 77,900 in Florida in 2027. But that fall-off will see a turnaround in 2028 with 80,900 new jobs created and will escalate to 128,700 created in Florida in 2030.

In terms of the number of people who are in Florida, there will be an increase in population, too. The TaxWatch forecast projects the 2030 population will rise to about 24.8 million people, up by about 1.45 million people from the current population.

The one solid increase with no dispute, at least among the TaxWatch analysts, is the tourism industry will remain strong in Florida. One of the main keystones and economic drivers of Florida will continue to be visitors coming to the state for a break.

“Florida’s tourism is projected to increase steadily through 2028, and Florida’s tourism industry is projected to continue its strong growth through 2030, with more visitors expected each year. Tourism directly supports 2.1 million jobs and is responsible for $76.4 billion in employee wages. Due to the revenue tourism generates, every Florida household saves $1,910 a year on state and local taxes,” the TaxWatch forecast concluded.


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Donald Trump and Elon Musk aren’t the first to make deep cuts. Bill Clinton-era Reinventing Government saved billions

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As part of Musk’s effort, the Trump administration has fired thousands of federal workers without warning. It offered government employees a “deferred resignation” program that wasn’t authorized by Congress and gutted agencies without similar legislative authorization, though sometimes judges intervened. The technology mogul and world’s richest person has pledged to save trillions of taxpayer dollars by cutting costs.

Those familiar with the Clinton-era Reinventing Government push say it holds lessons for both how to remake the federal bureaucracy and the comparatively meager savings that can be achieved from such an effort.

“We did it without a constitutional crisis,” said Elaine Kamarck, who ran Reinventing Government as a senior Gore adviser in the 1990s. “Unlike these people, we didn’t think there were vast trillions in efficiencies. … Their mandate is only to cut. Our was: Works better, costs less.”

Kamarck said the initiative grew to a 400-person staff recruited from existing workers within the federal agencies. They set about making the government more efficient and focused on customer service, introducing private sector-style metrics such as performance standards for workers.

The Reinventing Government team also pushed the workforce to embrace a brand new technology — the internet. Many governmental web sites and programs, including the electronic filing of income taxes, date back to the Reinventing Government initiative.

Gore appeared on the David Letterman late night television show and smashed a government ash tray with a hammer to symbolize his crusade to eliminate waste. The government ended up giving out “hammer awards” to employees who came up with ways to cut red tape and improve service, recalled Don Kettl, an emeritus professor of public policy at the University of Maryland.

“Liberating employees and seeing employees as a better part of the system was a big piece of it,” Kettl recalled. “One important difference is the Trump administration sees federal employees as the bad guys, and the Clinton administration saw federal employees as good guys.”

The Clinton administration also worked with Congress to authorize $25,000 buyouts for federal workers and ended up eliminating what Kamarck said were more than 400,000 federal positions between 1993 and 2000 through a combination of voluntary departures, attrition and a relatively small number of layoffs.

Kettl said the job cuts didn’t save money because the government had to turn around and hire contractors to perform the tasks of workers who left — something he worries will happen again if Musk and Trump continue to slash the federal workforce.

Chris Edwards, who edits DownsizingGovernment.org at the conservative Cato Institute in Washington, said buyouts symbolize the important difference between the Clinton effort, which he called “moderately successful,” and the current DOGE campaign — the involvement of Congress.

The Republicans who control Congress today have let Musk move ahead with his changes without them, even though the Constitution states that the legislative branch approves spending and federal law prohibits the president from cutting programs Congress has authorized without its permission. Clinton was the last president to successfully seek that permission, with Congress accepting $3.6 billion in cuts he proposed.

 

Trump and Musk have made only vague promises about submitting cuts to Congress. Without its involvement, any savings will be fleeting, Edwards said: “None of these changes DOGE wants to make will be permanent,” he said.

Few Republicans have suggested greater involvement by Congress.

“It requires speaking out. It requires saying, ‘That violates the law, that violates the authorities of the executive,’” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a Republican from Alaska.

Kamarck estimated the total savings of Reinventing Government at $146 billion — a considerable amount, but still only a tiny sliver of the federal budget. She contrasted the slow, deliberative and collaborative approach her team took with Musk’s breakneck pace, led by a team of young outsiders he has brought in to slash agencies and their workforce.

The reason Reinventing Government moved slowly, Kamarck said, was that it didn’t want to interfere with the myriad crucial roles of government while restructuring it. Musk seems to have few such concerns, she fears.

“The stakes in federal government failure are really, really high in a way they’re not in the private sector,” Kamarck said. “We really worried about screwing things up, and I don’t think these guys are worried enough about screwing things up, and it’ll be their undoing.”

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Republished with permission of The Associated Press.

 



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