Samantha Scott hasn’t won a single vote yet, but she’s already secured one of the smoothest victories of the 2026 cycle — and that didn’t happen by accident.

When her only Republican opponent abruptly withdrew from the House District 52 race, Scott became the presumptive Representative nominee, effectively locking down the seat before campaign season even began. It’s a striking rise for a first-time candidate, but insiders saw it coming, because this wasn’t just Scott’s win — it was Sam Garrison’s work.

The incoming House Speaker has been quietly recruiting the next generation of his caucus, and Scott’s uncontested glide path is the clearest evidence yet of how effectively he’s shaping the map while leading the Republicans’ elections arm. This is exactly the kind of methodical move that strengthens Garrison’s influence by ensuring allies are positioned in winnable districts and clearing the field when necessary.

By engineering a no-drama route for Scott, Garrison didn’t just help her — he helped himself. It gives him a loyal freshman, stabilizes a safe GOP seat, and signals to the rest of the caucus that he intends to manage his Speakership with precision.

In Tallahassee, where succession planning is often messy and competitive, Garrison managed to make this one look effortless. Scott’s easy ascent is the latest reminder that the most important victories in Florida politics often happen long before Election Day.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Home insurance market. After a long stretch of rate spikes, insolvencies and policy cancellations, Florida’s homeowners market is continuing to show signs of stabilization. Regulators are pointing to 162 filings this year that came in flat or as actual decreases, and the statewide average rate increase of 0.8% was the lowest in the nation, according to Insurance Commissioner Michael Yaworsky.

Private carriers are coming back in, too. After ballooning into Florida’s largest insurer, Citizens has now been overtaken by State Farm thanks to aggressive depopulation efforts.

That doesn’t mean all Floridians are suddenly feeling relief. Premiums are still high, and voters consistently rank insurance as a top concern. The average homeowners premium is still north of $3,800. And there’s lingering skepticism about whether the gains are structural or simply the product of a couple of quiet hurricane seasons.

Yaworsky and Gov. Ron DeSantis credit recent lawsuit restrictions for helping slow the bleeding, but analysts also note Florida has avoided the kind of catastrophic storm activity that triggered past collapses. The big question now is whether regulators can prevent another cycle of boom, bust and billions being siphoned off through affiliated companies, as uncovered in prior reporting.

Still, compared to the bleak landscape of the past decade, the shift is welcome. Yaworsky says “practically every data point” is headed in the right direction and plans to ask lawmakers for additional oversight authority next Session to keep the momentum going.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Carmine Marceno. Federal authorities have formally closed a long-running investigation into allegations that had dogged Marceno for more than a year — and had been weaponized by a political rival during his last campaign.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Middle District of Florida and the FBI notified Marceno’s attorney on Nov. 18 that the probe was over and that no charges would be filed. For a Sheriff who had spent the better part of two election cycles swatting down rumors of kickbacks, money laundering and improper gifts, the letter clearing Marceno was a welcome relief.

The investigation stemmed from accusations pushed by 2024 challenger Michael Hollow, who circulated a recording from a former Sheriff’s Office consultant alleging he had funneled money to a relative of Marceno’s and covered personal expenses, including gambling debts.

But the investigators involved made clear they had reviewed the claims, examined the materials and found nothing to support criminal charges.

For Marceno, who has held the job since 2018 and cruised through re-election, the official closure of the investigation removes the cloud that had followed him for months. He praised the process, saying the independent review affirmed what he had maintained all along: that the allegations were politically motivated and unsupported by facts.

Now the question becomes: Does Marceno try to take his cleared name to Washington?

The biggest winner: Vicki Lopez. Lopez is sitting pretty after being appointed to the District 5 seat on the Miami‑Dade County Commission, replacing Eileen Higgins, who vacated the post to run for Mayor of Miami.

The Commission ultimately decided to appoint a replacement for Higgins, rather than hold a Special Election. The body’s 7-5 vote to select Lopez allows her to move from the House — where she served representing House District 113 — to a prominent county role that offers greater influence over South Florida’s major metropolitan and coastal issues.

Lopez moves into a seat that covers some of the most well-known turf in the county: parts of Miami, Miami Beach, Brickell and Little Havana, among other areas. By taking that seat, she locks in the advantage of incumbency for the next countywide election in 2026. That means Lopez starts with institutional backing and a mandate to run the district ahead of the election, rather than simply preparing for a campaign from the sidelines.

Now, Lopez can hit the ground running on issues like local development, transit, housing and coastal resiliency — matters central to Miami-Dade’s future.

Lopez’s transition to the County Commission is a smart strategic move. It elevates her visibility and power in one of Florida’s largest-and most consequential regions, and she now enters the next phase of her public-service career with clear direction

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick. Federal prosecutors have indicted Cherfilus-McCormick for allegedly directing $5 million in COVID-relief funds into her campaign account — a charge that triggered swift fallout and raised serious questions about her future in office.

The indictment, made public in recent days, accuses Cherfilus-McCormick of misappropriating pandemic relief designed for small businesses and channeling portions into her political apparatus. She responded by saying she is innocent, but the damage is mounting all the same.

The political consequences were almost immediate. Hakeem Jeffries — leader of the House Democrats — stripped Cherfilus-McCormick of her ranking member status of a key foreign affairs subcommittee amid mounting pressure and threats of censure. And U.S. Rep. Greg Steube has launched a push to expel her from Congress entirely.

For Cherfilus-McCormick, this goes beyond being just a legal fight and could serve as a referendum on her credibility as a public figure. Cherfilus-McCormick can still defend herself, but this week’s events show that the climb back is steep.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Jay Collins 2026. Collins’ perceived springboard for a 2026 Governor run — as the DeSantis-aligned Lieutenant Governor — doesn’t appear to have the juice one might have expected a few years ago.

GOP megadonor Ken Griffin reportedly rebuffed DeSantis’ overtures to back Collins financially. That’s a big deal. Griffin has been one of the most powerful players in Florida Republican fundraising, and his decision to decline makes Collins look less like a contender and more like a long shot with shaky donor confidence.

It’s an especially bad look for Collins because his potential candidacy is deeply tied to DeSantis’ ability to channel major donor support into building a successor infrastructure. The fact that DeSantis personally courted Griffin — apparently pitching Collins — shows how much he was counting on Griffin’s backing. Instead, Griffin for now is staying on the sidelines.

This raises serious strategic questions: If a major DeSantis ally struggles to harness the support of the biggest GOP financiers in Florida, what does that say about his long-term viability? Without marquee donors willing to go all in, Collins risks being seen as a placeholder or a fallback rather than a top-tier candidate.

Collins is already starting miles behind Byron Donald in polling and fundraising after waiting this long to enter the race. Griffin’s decision perhaps should give Collins pause about running at all, though if his recent social media activity is any indication- Collins has already made the decision to plow full steam ahead anyway.

The biggest loser: Cory Mills. Mills’ already scandal-plagued background is now snowballing into raising very real questions about whether he belongs in Congress at all.

And Mills isn’t just earning blowback from Democrats or out-of-state Republicans — two of his loudest critics are Florida colleagues, in U.S. Reps. Kat Cammack and Anna Paulina Luna.

Mills has been under scrutiny for since-recanted domestic assault allegations, a murky military record critics say he has burnished, and a restraining order tied to alleged cyberstalking and revenge porn. Now comes a detailed account alleging he hired sex workers repeatedly while embedded with a private rescue team during the Afghanistan withdrawal — the same mission he has spent years mythologizing as the core of his political identity.

That mission made him a MAGA celebrity and Fox News favorite. It’s the foundation of his rise: the dramatic story he retold in interview after interview, on the campaign trail, and even on the House floor. But the new reporting suggests a very different version of events — one in which Mills behaved recklessly, endangered a sensitive extraction effort, disrupted a team of seasoned operators and went rogue in ways that forced others to scramble and clean up the mess.

The reporting also exposes a second potential track of misconduct: the secret nonprofit Mills created immediately after returning from that trip. Despite federal law requiring disclosure of nonprofit affiliations, he never reported it.

The report also raises questions about the group’s finances. Tax filings show revenue classified only as “service revenue,” zero donations, and more than $100,000 routed to unnamed subcontractors. A separate nonprofit, founded by now-FBI Director Kash Patel, reported giving the group $20,000 — a donation Never Forgotten did not acknowledge in its own filings.

By the way, all of this came the same week that the House Ethics Committee expanded its investigation into Mills to cover “sexual misconduct.” related to stories from earlier this year.

Taken together, each new revelation seems to open an entirely new lane of vulnerability and further beg the question of whether voters or his colleagues in the House should tolerate the risk of keeping him in office.