Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 10.5.25

Sometimes diplomacy is theater — and this week, Marco Rubio played the role of stagehand.

During a White House roundtable with conservative influencers, Rubio quietly passed President Donald Trump a handwritten note that said, “Very close. We need you to approve a Truth Social post soon so you can announce deal first.”

Moments later, Trump posted that Israel and Hamas had signed off on the first phase of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire and hostage deal.

The exchange was photographed by The Associated Press, turning what should have been a private nudge into a public moment. But the White House leaned into the spectacle, posting side-by-side photos (one of the note moment, one of former President Joe Biden getting a note) with the caption, “We are not the same.”

What else do you expect from a White House led by the master showman himself in Trump? 

The move put Rubio in the spotlight as helping to make Trump the center of the deal. The art of the deal, if you will. And it wasn’t the first time a message intended to be private got blasted into public due to a snafu.

This time, Team Trump was able to spin it to advance the messaging they wanted to put out anyway: Trump is the primary mover and shaker in this deal.

But next time you’re passing secret codes in front of the press, maybe fold the note.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Paul Renner. After a rough launch that saw Gov. Ron DeSantis publicly brush him off and Byron Donalds hoover up both cash and oxygen in the GOP Primary, Renner is finally getting some good news.

The former House Speaker pulled in an impressive $3.7 million over just 35 days since launching his bid for Governor — a haul that at least puts him back in the conversation. Renner’s campaign said the showing reflects “broad support” across the state, with more than $3 million of it arriving before the end of September.

The Palm Coast Republican still trails Donalds, who raised $9.2 million last quarter and remains the financial front-runner with Trump’s endorsement and a national donor network to match. But Renner’s fast start is no small feat, especially for a candidate who was written off early — including in this very column.

It’s too early to say whether this momentum will lead to anything of note. But $3.7 million in five weeks is a statement. Renner may still be the underdog, but for now, he’s at least a player in the game.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Sam Garrison. Garrison’s designation ceremony this week didn’t just mark a milestone on his way to the Speakership — it offered a revealing look at the tone and priorities he’ll bring to the job.

The Clay County Republican has long been seen as serious, prepared and policy-minded, and his remarks to colleagues underscored that reputation.

Garrison spoke about the weight of the institution and the responsibility that comes with holding the House’s top post. And he urged lawmakers to put in the hard work.

“Do we spend as much time learning every detail of legislation, preparing to defend it and refine it? Or do we outsource it all to interest groups or think tanks, taking up ‘model legislation’ and just assuming someone else has done the hard work of making sure it is the right thing for Florida?” Garrison said.

“Do we do the arduous work of leading this state and fighting for our people back home? Or do we hit the easy button and simply ride the wave, shrug our shoulders, and leave the tough decisions, the intractable problems, and the big dreams to someone else?”

That sense of diligence stood out in an era when political performance often overshadows governing.

He also took time to honor those who came before him, invoking the late John Thrasher — a fellow Clay County Speaker — and paying tribute to the legacy of those who built the chamber’s modern foundation.

Garrison even wove in a touch of symbolism, gifting colleagues a copy of The Federalist Papers with a bookmark handcrafted from the old House chairs during Thrasher’s tenure, a gesture meant to connect Florida’s current House members with past giants of government.

Garrison doesn’t take the gavel until 2027, but this week’s ceremony showed he’s already thinking like a Speaker — one focused less on headlines and more on the hard grind of governing.

The biggest winner: James Uthmeier. For months, Tallahassee buzzed with speculation that Trump might try to recruit a challenger to Uthmeier, given Uthmeier’s close ties to DeSantis. But that chatter ended this week when Trump went the opposite direction, offering his full endorsement for Uthmeier’s re-election bid.

Trump’s nod effectively clears the Republican field and all but guarantees a win for Uthmeier in the GOP Primary contest for Attorney General. And Uthmeier will be favored in the General Election as well given Florida’s shift rightward in recent years.

It also shows that whatever chill remains between the Trump and DeSantis camps, Uthmeier has managed to navigate it — no small feat for a former DeSantis Chief of Staff now serving as Florida’s top lawyer.

The nod from Trump comes in addition to 51 of the state’s 67 Sheriffs throwing their support behind Uthmeier as well.

But the Trump endorsement was the major get. The President’s endorsement gives Uthmeier plenty of political breathing room heading into 2026. And for Republicans wary of another intraparty feud, it’s one less front to fight.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Department of Financial Services. When your agency’s response to a postcard is to send men in tactical vests to someone’s front door, you’ve officially lost the plot.

The Department of Financial Services (DFS) found itself under fire this week after two armed investigators showed up at a Largo home to question a retiree about a postcard he had mailed to CFO Blaise Ingoglia that read, simply: “You lack values.”

The agents — wearing bulletproof vests labeled “police” — never identified themselves or their agency, alarming the O’Gara family as they got their 11-year-old granddaughter set for school.

Law enforcement later confirmed that the visit came from the DFS criminal division and called it a precautionary measure amid rising political violence.

““While it is unfortunate that law enforcement must sometimes go the extra mile to ensure public safety, let it be known that it is a direct result of an increasingly hostile political environment,” said Sydney Booker, Ingoglia’s Communications Director.

That explanation landed with a thud. There’s a massive gulf between ensuring public safety and intimidating constituents over mild criticism. Nothing about the episode suggests a credible threat — just a heavy-handed show of force that managed to scare a family and embarrass the agency.

In two months on the job after taking over from Jimmy Patronis, Ingoglia has barnstormed the state railing against local tax hikes. But this incident shifted the spotlight to his Department’s judgment and priorities.

Sending armed officers over a cranky postcard isn’t “threat assessment.” It’s overreach — and the optics are awful.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Bill Heavener. This isn’t exactly the kind of headline the University of Florida wants next to one of its most prominent names.

Heavener, a UF Trustee and longtime GOP donor, is facing a federal lawsuit accusing him and his business partners of defrauding the government of tens of millions of dollars through two for-profit universities they control: Full Sail University in Winter Park and the Los Angeles Film School.

The complaint, filed in California federal court, alleges the schools manipulated post-graduate employment data for more than a decade, paying employers to briefly hire graduates so they could meet the 70% job placement threshold needed to continue qualifying for federal aid.

The schools reportedly receive more than half a billion dollars a year combined in federal funds, loans and veterans’ benefits.

Heavener — whose name graces UF’s football training center and who has donated more than $1.2 million to the Republican Party — is accused of coordinating the alleged scheme from Florida, with detailed involvement across both institutions.

The schools have denied wrongdoing. And of course, everyone gets their day in court. Heavener may very well beat back these claims.

But he and his associates have a long fight ahead.

The biggest loser: ???. The Hope Florida saga is continuing to look less like a beacon of compassion and more like a slow-motion implosion.

After subpoenas were issued last week, a grand jury convenes Monday. There have been a few names floated out there detailing who is facing scrutiny. But a fuller picture of the probe will be unveiled Monday, including names of potential targets, but we don’t have a full grasp as of this writing, hence the question mark here.

At the same time, Hope Florida itself appears to be running on fumes. For the first time since its 2021 debut, no state agency has requested new funding for the First Lady’s flagship program ahead of the 2026 Session.

That’s a stunning reversal after years of expansion — and a sign that confidence in the initiative appears to have faltered.

Officially, the DeSantis administration insists Hope Florida will “continue to serve Floridians,” but the absence of new budget requests speaks volumes.

Between the subpoenas and the stalled funding, Hope Florida’s future looks uncertain. But the real losers will be those whose names begin trickling out in thoes grand jury proceedings. Stay tuned.