Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 1.11.26

As if tomorrow night’s national championship featuring a rejuvenated Miami Hurricanes team playing in front of South Florida fans wasn’t big enough, now President Donald Trump will be in attendance as well.

This spectacle just went from big to yuge.

It wasn’t the only Florida-Trump sports scene this week. The two-time NHL champion Florida Panthers visited the White House to celebrate their latest title, bearing plenty of gifts for the President.

Now, Trump will be on hand in Miami Gardens, along with Secretary Marco Rubio, to potentially witness the Hurricanes shock the world and upset the juggernaut Indiana Hoosiers football squad (a phrase no one could have ever contemplated before last season).

Yes, Florida is once again the epicenter of high-level athletics. Don’t forget in the NFL playoffs, where the Jacksonville Jaguars …

Actually, let’s just focus on tomorrow night’s game.

The end of football season is bittersweet, with the crowning of a champion meaning we now have to wait six months or more before next Summer’s fantasy drafts.

But with one more college game to play, the Canes are continuing to carry the torch for those hoping that the state’s college football programs can return to their blue-chip status and revive the glory days of the 1990s and 2000s.

Or, if you’re a Gators or Seminoles fan, the game gives you a chance to root for a 50-point Indiana win.

That’s a win either way, and a welcome distraction as we collectively get ready to fully transition our attention to this year’s Session(s). Enjoy the game, everyone.

Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Rays fans. Speaking of sports, after years of uncertainty, Tampa Bay Rays fans finally have something concrete to cheer about: a renewed path forward on a new ballpark.

The Rays’ stadium saga has stretched on for years, defined by mounting frustration from fans and local leaders alike. Tropicana Field, the team’s current home since 1998, has long been criticized for its outdated facilities and waning attendance. The collapse of the Historic Gas Plant deal left the franchise in a prolonged holding pattern that threatened its long-term viability in the region.

That began to change late last year as new leadership at Rays ownership came aboard. Team president Ken Babby has set a firm timeline for progress, telling local media that he expects a new ballpark to be operational by 2028 — a hard date that injects confidence into negotiations and signals the franchise is serious about delivering on what has been a decade’s worth of promises.

The newest chapter in the process centers on a proposed stadium site at Hillsborough Community College’s Dale Mabry campus in Tampa. The proposal is reportedly gaining traction with nearby neighborhoods and leaders who see potential in the team’s vision for the new ballpark.

While details on funding and design remain to be negotiated, the fact that a site has been publicly discussed and preliminarily embraced means the Rays’ future in the Tampa Bay area is looking decidedly brighter.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Adam Tanenbaum. Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Tanenbaum as his latest pick to fill a Supreme Court vacancy.

Tanenbaum, a circuit Judge with a reputation that aligns with conservative legal principles, emerged as a candidate who can carry forward the court’s recent trajectory forged under DeSantis.

Tanenbaum comes in with a long background in Florida government beyond just being a Judge. He served as General Counsel for both the Florida House and Florida Department of State, as well as Chief Deputy Solicitor General at the Department of Legal Affairs.

And DeSantis was familiar with Tanenbaum’s legal philosophy, having appointed Tanenbaum to the 1st District Court of Appeal early in his first term.

Speaking Wednesday during the announcement of his nomination, Tanenbaum cited Justice Clarence Thomas, DeSantis’ favorite jurist, as an influence on his judicial philosophy. He probably didn’t need to say much more beyond that to get the job.

DeSantis’ choice means six of the seven Justices on the court have now been nominated by this Governor. That level of imprint on Florida’s judiciary is rare and allows DeSantis to leave his philosophical imprint on the legal system long after he departs office.

For Tanenbaum, the nomination culminates years of service in and places him at the center of Florida’s legal system.

The biggest winner: Florida House. This week marked the start of the 2026 Session (not sure if you’ve heard) and the House under Speaker Daniel Perez wasted no time getting its members to the floor to pass meaningful legislation.

Just this week, the full House approved legislation to repeal Florida’s unjust “free kill” law, raise sovereign immunity caps and allow local governments to compensate victims without requiring approval from Tallahassee, and strengthen oversight of nursing schools to make sure the state’s nurses are up to par.

The House GOP supermajority also secured plenty of wins for the state’s conservative base, approving bills to expand the use of E-Verify, ensure Florida’s Wrongful Death Act covers the death of fetuses, and lower the minimum age to purchase guns back to 18, eliminating post-Parkland regulations.

Your mood may vary on whether those latter bills were net positives, and the Senate still has to act for any of these to become law.  But a Republican supermajority, which the state voted for, is going to govern from its right flank. And the measures on “free kill,” sovereign immunity and nursing show the lower chamber is interested in accomplishing more than just appeasing the GOP base.

As Lt. Gov. Jay Collins says, “Leadership is forged under pressure, not in soundbites.” More on him later, but the House is wasting no time in proving that mindset this Session.

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick. A Broward County court dismissed Cherfilus-McCormick’s $1 million lawsuit against Democratic Primary challenger Elijah Manley — a legal setback that comes amid growing challenges in her re-election fight and raises questions about her campaign’s strategy.

Cherfilus-McCormick sued Manley last year, alleging defamation and seeking substantial damages over campaign statements he made during their heated Democratic Primary battle in 2024. Manley accused her of misusing COVID vaccine funds, allegations that have led to criminal charges against Cherfilus-McCormick.

Everyone is innocent until proven guilty, of course, and Cherfilus-McCormick argued Manley’s framing crossed the line. But on Tuesday, the case was dismissed after Cherfilus-McCormick failed to serve Manley the lawsuit, a basic step in the legal process that Cherfilus-McCormick’s team nevertheless couldn’t accomplish.

Beyond the immediate case, the episode highlights a broader vulnerability in how Cherfilus-McCormick is navigating her political environment. The lawsuit drew attention to an issue already dragging Cherfilus-McCormick. Had she won, or at least put up a basic fight, maybe she could’ve claimed victory even if the criminal case continued.

Instead, all she managed to do here was draw more attention to the accusations against her while not even making it past the earliest legal hurdles to get inside a courtroom.

Suffice it to say this doesn’t bear well on the legal chops of Team Cherfilus-McCormick.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Jay Collins. Collins’ long-anticipated announcement that he’s running for Governor landed with a thud, as it continued to underscore his lack of political momentum that he’ll need to make the race competitive.

When it comes to the most basic measure of viability — voter support — Collins remains stuck near the bottom of the GOP pack. Multiple recent polls have shown him trailing in single digits, far behind front-runner Byron Donalds. Other contenders, like former House Speaker Paul Renner, are busy building brand recognition and organizational muscle.

Both have a huge head start over Collins in terms of fundraising and announced endorsements as well. And entering a statewide race without a rising polling trajectory makes it that much harder to attract the donor dollars and endorsements that could shift the dynamic.

Perhaps the most glaring sign of Collins’ uphill slog is the absence of a key endorsement that many assumed would come: that of DeSantis. Despite naming Collins as his Lieutenant Governor following Jeanette Nuñez’s departure, DeSantis has passed on endorsing his own second-in-command, including twice just this week.

The relationship with DeSantis should have provided the credibility and visibility that Collins needs as Donalds runs with Trump’s support. DeSantis is the only Republican leader from Florida that anyone could even argue has similar sway that Trump does. But he continues to sit on the sidelines, and we all continue to wonder what exactly Collins’ lane is here as other Republican contenders have already laid the groundwork that Collins is still scrambling to build.

The biggest loser: James Fishback. But at least Collins doesn’t hold the designation of the most embarrassing GOP campaign for Governor this cycle.

It’s been unclear for weeks whether Fishback’s candidacy was anything other than a vehicle to say inflammatory, headline-chasing garbage to launch a podcast career after he finishes in single digits in August. His latest antics this week did nothing to dispel those assumptions.

Yet as much outrage and attention he seeks, apparently little of that has translated to tangible financial support.

Fishback’s fundraising report for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed him raising a dismal $950. Not $950,000. Just $950.

After his campaign started arguing with the media about reporting on a finance report that they filed, Fishback amended his report to show he’s raised just under $19,000.

That number may sound promising when compared to $950. Then you remember this is a campaign for Governor and that Donalds raised $45 million last year while Renner collected $5.5 million.

Sure Fishback landed an appearance with Tucker Carlson. But clicks don’t pay for voter outreach, we’re afraid.

Fishback is versed in how to generate attention online and speak to those obsessed with their social media presence. He’s flawlessly executing a campaign generated to shock folks and get online clout from the edgelords on X.

To most of the rest of us though, it’s a boring and unserious performance amid a gubernatorial bid doomed to irrelevancy in the end. Maybe he can land himself a show on Kick for his troubles.