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Why Wall Street permabull Tom Lee thinks we’re in the third great labor shortage era

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Investors can be forgiven for feeling nervous after navigating what Fundstrat Global Advisors’ head of research Tom Lee calls a series of “extinction events” over the last four years. However, according to the top analyst, the very trauma of these recent crises has suppressed the economy and investor sentiment, creating a coiled spring for a bullish 2026.

Speaking on The Prof G Markets Pod, Lee argued that the market’s resilience in the face of relentless shocks is a signal of underlying strength. He identified six “extinction events” rattling the market, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the supply-chain crisis, the fastest inflation cycle in history, and then the fastest series of Federal Reserve rate hikes in history. Additionally, Lee pointed to instability involving tariffs and geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S. strikes involving Iran, as events that have collectively “made investors very nervous about… investing in full risk, because these are, what, six black swans that happened in four years,” he said, referring to the famous markets theory by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Lee made his remarks before the U.S. strike on Venezuela, yet another example of geopolitical tensions scrambling markets. He doubled down in a Jan. 5 appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box, saying that 2026 is shaping up to be a year with strong fundamentals in markets, while emphasizing that the market needs to digest three years of annual gains over 15%.

The ‘wall of worry’ and a market correction

Lee talked to podcast hosts Ed Elson and Scott Galloway about his philosophy. “Markets climb a wall of worry,” he said, arguing that they “don’t peak when people are bearish,” but rather when euphoria takes over and prices no longer respond to good news. Currently, skepticism remains high, which Lee views as a contrarian buy signal.

However, the road to a prosperous year may be paved with volatility. Lee predicted a “miniature bear market” or a significant drawdown, before the recovery fully takes hold. He explained that the stock market’s three consecutive years of big returns are a rare occurrence that historically suggests a need to consolidate gains. “I think that we end up a bullish outcome despite all the skepticism,” Lee said, noting that a 2026 pullback would likely be a buying opportunity rather than the end of the cycle.

The third labor shortage epoch

A key ingredient in Lee’s recipe for 2026 is the technology sector, driven by a massive demographic shift. He argued the U.S. is in a long-term labor shortage era. “We entered the third epoch, or era of labor shortage, which started in 2018 and it’s going to last to 2035,” he predicted, necessitating heavy technology spending to replace missing workers.

He compared the current AI boom to the introduction of flash-frozen foods in the 1920s, which, per Fundstrat research, ultimately reduced farm labor from 40% of the workforce to 2% while lowering food costs. In a similar way, he said he thinks AI will create efficiency rather than economic ruin.

“Let’s say there was a CNBC in 1920 and these economists were saying, ‘frozen food, if it comes along and it’s going to wipe out 95% of all farmers, this is going to wipe out the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy can’t survive frozen food,’” Lee noted, making his point about current hysteria about AI job displacement. “Instead it freed up time, right? And it created, it allowed people to be repurposed, and it created a completely new labor force.”

Addressing fears of an AI bubble, Lee drew a parallel to the dot-com era. He pointed out that if an investor bought the “internet basket” in 1999 and held it until today, they would have outperformed the S&P 500, even though most of the stocks in that basket went to zero. Similarly, Lee estimated that while 90% of AI stocks may perform worse than expected, the sector as a basket will likely outperform the broader market.

When asked directly about his reputation as a “permabull,” Lee replied that he was first labeled with the term back in 2009, and history proves him right. “Here’s what’s interesting 16 years later … the optimists have won.”

Betting on resilience remains the right play, he said, and if you look closely, markets have that heading into 2026. “America, as long as it’s a place of innovation—and we are, because we’re at the center of AI—I think it’s pretty bullish,” Lee said, while acknowledging the key point raised by the show’s hosts: “there’s a chance that this AI is a disaster for labor markets, and if it is, the U.S. will be the least scathed but everyone’s going to go down.”



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‘Microshifting,’ an extreme form of hybrid work that breaks work into short blocks, is on the rise

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“Microshifting,” a more radical spin on hybrid work that slices the day into short, non‑continuous blocks of labor, is fast moving from fringe experiment to mainstream talking point in 2026. Advocates say this ultra‑flexible pattern is helping workers reconcile childcare, side hustles, and self‑care with demanding white‑collar roles, while critics warn it could entrench an “always on” culture under a different name.​

Microshifting describes a workday broken into multiple short, flexible “bursts” of focused effort, often around 45 to 90 minutes, separated by stretches of personal time, family duties, or rest. Rather than clocking a continuous 9‑to‑5, a worker might log on at dawn, disappear for school drop‑off or a gym class, and return for another block in the late morning before finishing tasks in the evening.​

The term was popularized by video‑conferencing firm Owl Labs, which defines microshifting as working “in short, non‑linear blocks based on personal energy, responsibilities, or productivity patterns.” Originating during the pandemic, when school closures and lockdowns shattered the traditional schedule, the model has since been embraced by parents, global teams, and gig‑economy workers trying to fit paid work into complex lives.​

Gustas Germanavicius, a Lithuanian ironman competitor and the CEO of InRento, described his approach to microshifting to Fortune in November 2025, likening it both to his physical fitness training and the time he spent studying with the Shaolin monks in China.

“Basically I work in marathons and sprints,” he said. “Two months I work, 24-7, seven days a week, then two weeks off. This two weeks off doesn’t mean that I’m fully offline, but I try to relax and put a lower gear.”

Day One Ventures founder Masha Bucher, an early backer of 12 unicorns and more than 30 exits, told Fortune people close to her absolutely “work seven days a week, from 6:00 or 7:00 am, with a break for sports until like midnight or 1:00 or 2:00 am.” Work to her Silicon Valley circuit is “flexible … I don’t remember when I was on vacation and what vacation is. I think when you do something you love, you don’t feel like you need vacation.”

From hybrid to ‘extreme’ flexibility

The rise of microshifting marks an escalation from earlier forms of hybrid work, which largely focused on where people worked rather than when. In many companies, employees are still required to appear in the office several days a week, but now increasingly negotiate the right to distribute those hours across an elongated day or even late evenings.​ Jones Lang LaSalle conducted a worldwide survey of its commercial real estate business and found a certain “non-complier” with traditional work is “empowered,” because of their special value to the business.

Employer data suggests appetite for this extreme flexibility is strong: Owl Labs’ survey found around 65% of workers are interested in microshifting, with interest especially high among managers, caregivers, and staff with side jobs. Younger workers, particularly Gen Z, are leaning into such non‑linear schedules to accommodate additional gig work, with more than a quarter reporting a second job or side hustle.​

Why workers are embracing it

Supporters argue the model aligns work with natural peaks of concentration and energy, rather than forcing productivity through afternoon slumps. Short, intense blocks are seen as a way to harness “deep work” while leaving time for exercise, school runs, or caring responsibilities that rarely fit neatly into a rigid office day—maybe even ironman training.

Mental health is another selling point: HR consultants say that when done intentionally, microshifting can reduce burnout and decision fatigue, giving workers permission to unplug between bursts. In output‑driven organizations, managers report performance has not dipped when staff are allowed to plan their own microshifts, provided they remain available for key meetings and high‑stakes in‑person commitments.​

Germanavicius, the ironman, stressed to Fortune he encourages people to take vacation and “don’t experience the burnout, because it’s very hard to recover,” including for himself. Referencing the valuable lesson he learned from the Shaolin monks that “practice makes tired,” he said he really works himself hard, and expects everyone else on his team to do so, but there’s a limit.

“The company must not be dependent on me,” he said. “If it’s dependent on me, then it means I’m doing a craftsmanship, not a business. The business needs to work for you, you shouldn’t work for the business.”

Labor experts warn schedule autonomy can morph into expectation, with employees quietly stretching their work across 14 or 16 waking hours to stay responsive in different time zones. Some large employers, especially in finance and government, remain wary, pushing a return to presence‑heavy office cultures and expressing concerns about coordination, accountability and surveillance in such dispersed patterns.​

Jones Lang LaSalle was clear in its survey around workforce trends: The next battlefield between workers and employers has already shifted from where to when. Work-life balance has overtaken salary as the leading priority for office workers globally (65%, up from 59% in 2022.), with employees especially looking for “management of time over place.”



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‘Humans could go the way of horses’: Goldman calculated how bad the AI ‘job apocalypse’ will be

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In 1983, the Nobel Prize-winning economist Wassily Leontief asked whether technological change could become so profound that “humans could go the way of horses” when tractors replaced them in agriculture and transport in the early part of the 20th Century.* Might not computers replace the need for humans who can think the same way the combustion engine replaced the need for literal horsepower?

This week, two analysts at Goldman Sachs tried to answer that question in a research paper cheerfully titled, “How Concerned Should We Be About a Job Apocalypse?”

Quite, but not too much, is their conclusion.

Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong estimate, based on Department of Labor job numbers, that 25% of all work hours could be automated by AI. Thus, “We expect that the AI transition will lead to a meaningful amount of labor displacement.”

AI won’t replace jobs in a uniform way, however. “Our baseline forecast for a 15% AI-driven labor productivity uplift and the historical relationship between technologically driven productivity gains and job loss implies that 6-7% of jobs will be displaced over the adoption period,” they said.

“We estimate a peak gross unemployment rate increase of around 0.6pp (corresponding to a 1 million increase in unemployed workers.”

That sounds bad, but there is good news.

Previous eras of technological change have resulted in the creation of a mass of new jobs that no one previously was able to imagine, the Goldman team said.

“Technological change is a main driver of long-run job growth via the creation of new occupations—only 40% of workers today are employed in occupations that existed 85 years ago—suggesting that AI will create new roles even as it renders others obsolete.”

“More than 6 million workers are currently employed in computer-related occupations that did not exist 30-40 years ago, while another 8-9 million are employed in roles enabled by the gig economy, e-commerce, content creation, or video games.” 

Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee recently made a similar comparison in an appearance on the Prof G Markets podcast with Scott Galloway and Ed Elson, comparing the current AI boom to the introduction of flash-frozen foods in the 1920s. Citing his firm’s research, he claimed this reduced farm labor from 40% of the U.S. workforce to 2%, but enough new jobs were created that the shift was overall positive.

“Let’s say there was a CNBC in 1920 and these economists were saying, ‘frozen food, if it comes along and it’s going to wipe out 95% of all farmers, this is going to wipe out the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy can’t survive frozen food … Instead it freed up time, right? And it created, it allowed people to be repurposed, and it created a completely new labor force.”

*Leontief originally wrote, “The role of humans as the most important factor of production is bound to diminish in the same way that the role of horses … was first diminished and then eliminated.” This has been truncated over time and is now widely attributed to him as, “Humans could go the way of horses.”

Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation Summit May 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.



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Meet the Nvidia billionaire giving away his wealth—His son’s cancer battle inspired a recent $100 million gift

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Billionaire Nvidia board member Tench Coxe and his wife Simone are donating $100 million to the University of Texas Medical Center in Austin. 

The donation, one of the largest gifts in the university’s history, was driven by the couple’s personal history and values aligning with the university’s goal of improving healthcare access in Central Texas, where they live.

The medical center will include a new hospital to treat complex and serious conditions and an expansion of the UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, according to a statement from the university. It is expected to open in 2030.

“I hope in 25 years that people will say that UT has one of the best medical centers in the world, and it’s benefiting the whole community,” Coxe said in a video. 

Coxe was managing director of Sutter Hill Ventures from 1989 to 2020, and joined the Nvidia board in 1993, an early supporter of Jensen Huang. Coxe is the third largest individual shareholder of Nvidia, behind founder Huang and board member and venture capitalist Mark Stevens, and has an estimated net worth of $7.7 billion, according to Forbes

The couple relocated to Austin from Silicon Valley in 2020, and Coxe is also a part-owner of Austin FC. They are also Democratic supporters, and each donated $1 million to Beto O’Rourke’s 2022 gubernatorial campaign against Gov. Greg Abbott. 

Investing in the future of healthcare 

The couple’s personal experiences also influenced their choice to donate to the University of Texas. Their six-year-old son successfully underwent treatment for Burkitt lymphoma at the Lucile Packard Children’s Hospital at Stanford Medicine in 2003, which inspired them to pay it forward, Simone said. They also saw the need for more healthcare infrastructure in their own community. 

“We have a close friend who had to travel to Houston [from Austin] for care she should have been able to get here at home,” Coxe said. As much as 25% of people in the region leave the area to seek care for serious medical needs, according to the university. 

A key part of the Coxes’ decision to donate was speaking with the dean of UT’s Dell Medical School, Claudia Lucchinetti, and hearing her vision to change the model of healthcare by integrating university research with a modern healthcare system. 

“Having spent my career backing strong leaders, meeting Claudia made it clear: Supporting the vision for the UT medical center is exactly the opportunity Austin needed,” Coxe said. The gift is unrestricted and the university says they will prioritize hiring world-class staff, construction, technology investments, and expanding access to healthcare. 

The couple typically gives quietly or anonymously. In September 2025, Coxe gifted 1 million Nvidia shares, valued at more than $168 million, to undisclosed recipients, Bloomberg reported.  

“One of the things that happens with bigger gifts is that it de-risks it a bit for some people,” Simone said. “Our approach to philanthropy is to invest and believe, knowing that there’s a risk and not everything’s going to be perfect. We hope by making this gift, we can help encourage others to take that same view.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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