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Why the Supreme Court may choose to uphold Trump’s tariffs: ‘It would be incredibly disruptive to unscramble those eggs’

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When the Supreme Court hears arguments on November 5 in President Donald Trump’s tariff case, the justices won’t just be weighing a constitutional question—they’ll be deciding the fate of billions of dollars in global commerce. 

The case, which challenges Trump’s sweeping tariffs imposed under emergency powers, has become a defining moment for business leaders navigating a volatile trade landscape already reshaped by uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical rivalry. 

As former Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar noted at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women conference, the Supreme Court now faces a “hard question” about whether to disrupt a sitting president’s signature economic policy after it has already reshaped the global trade landscape. 

“Even if the tariffs had never been able to take effect, now that they have come in and changed the status quo, the court might ultimately really have pause and concern before disrupting the President’s economic policy in this way,” she told Fortune’s Michal Lev-Ram.

The potential economic fallout from reversing Trump’s tariff policy may ultimately guide the Court’s hand. “The government is coming to court and saying, ‘We would have to unwind billions or trillions of dollars. It could bankrupt our nation,’” Prelogar added. “It would be incredibly disruptive to try to scramble those eggs,” referring to the billions of dollars already collected and distributed under the policy.

Tariff controversy

Trump’s move to impose 10% reciprocal tariffs on all imports—rising to as high as 50% for major trading partners—under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) marked one of the most aggressive uses of executive trade authority in U.S. history. His administration has since reportedly collected $158 billion in tariffs, arguing that striking them down would “impossible to ever recover” and destabilize ongoing trade negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated that if the top court goes against the administration, the U.S. “would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs, which would be terrible for the Treasury,” in an interview with NBC.

Lower courts have disagreed, ruling that Trump overstepped his statutory and constitutional bounds. In three separate opinions, federal judges concluded that IEEPA does not authorize the president to unilaterally impose what amounts to a massive tax on imports. The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals, in a 7–4 decision, said plainly that “absent a valid delegation by Congress, the President has no authority to impose taxes,” emphasizing that tariffs—long considered a congressional power—require clear legislative authorization.

If the Court strikes down the tariffs, companies could see immediate relief in import costs—but the economic ripple effects would be complex. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that overturning the tariffs would wipe out $2.8 trillion in projected government revenue through 2035, potentially forcing cuts or higher borrowing costs that could squeeze businesses elsewhere. 

‘Almost a coin toss’

Currently, U.S. consumers and businesses are feeling the weight of tariffs most, according to a report by Goldman Sachs. The analysis estimated U.S. consumers are shouldering up to 55% of the costs stemming from Trump’s tariffs, even though the president has repeatedly claimed that the tariffs on imports exclusively tax foreign enterprises. Goldman’s research also found that U.S. businesses pay 22% of the cost of the tariffs, while foreign exporters contribute only 18% of the cost. 

While Wall Street might initially celebrate tariff relief especially in heavily impacted sectors, broader uncertainty around U.S. trade policy could linger, especially as Trump has signaled he would pivot to other legal authorities, like Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, to reimpose tariffs on specific industries should the Court not rule in his favor.

Even if the law is on the challengers’ side, the pragmatic economic and executive power concerns, according to Prelogar, make the case’s outcome “almost a coin toss.” Trade and legal experts previously predicted between a 70-80% chance the high court would rule against the Trump administration and expect a decision by the end of the year. According to them, the justices may not follow traditional ideological divides.

Whether Trump’s tariffs survive or fall, one outcome is certain: the decision will redefine how executives plan in an era where law and economics collide. The Court’s ruling, expected by year’s end, will either restore Congress’s trade prerogatives, or confirm that the president’s emergency powers can reach deep into the heart of global commerce. 



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Google DeepMind agrees to sweeping partnership with the U.K. government

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AI lab GoogleDeepMind announced a major new partnership with the U.K. government Wednesday, pledging to accelerate breakthroughs in materials science and clean energy, including nuclear fusion, as well as conducting joint research on the societal impacts of AI and on ways to make AI decision-making more interpretable and safer.

As part of the partnership, Google DeepMind said it would open its first automated research laboratory in the U.K. in 2026. That lab will focus on discovering advanced materials including superconductors that can carry electricity with zero resistance. The facility will be fully integrated with Google’s Gemini AI models. Gemini will serve as a kind of scientific brain for the lab, which will also use robotics to synthesize and characterize hundreds of materials per day, significantly accelerating the timeline for transformative discoveries.

The company will also work with the U.K. government and other U.K.-based scientists on trying to make breakthroughs in nuclear fusion, potentially paving the way for cheaper, cleaner energy. Fusion reactions should produce abundant power while producing little to no nuclear waste, but such reactions have proved to be very difficult to sustain or scale up.

Additionally, Google DeepMind is expanding its research alliance with the government-run U.K. AI Security Institute to explore methods for discovering how large language models and other complex neural network-based AI models arrive at decisions. The partnership will also involve joint research into the societal impacts of AI, such as the effect AI deployment is likely to have on the labor market and the impact increased use of AI chatbots may have on mental health.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said in a statement that the partnership would “make sure we harness developments in AI for public good so that everyone feels the benefits.”

“That means using AI to tackle everyday challenges like cutting energy bills thanks to cheaper, greener energy and making our public services more efficient so that taxpayers’ money is spent on what matters most to people,” Starmer said.

Google DeepMind cofounder and CEO Demis Hassabis said in a statement that AI has “incredible potential to drive a new era of scientific discovery and improve everyday life.”

As part of the partnership, British scientists will receive priority access to Google DeepMind’s advanced AI tools, including AlphaGenome for DNA sequencing; AlphaEvolve for designing algorithms; DeepMind’s WeatherNext weather forecasting models; and its new AI co-scientist, a multi-agent system that acts as a virtual research collaborator.

DeepMind was founded in London in 2010 and is still headquartered there; it was acquired by Google in 2014.

Gemini’s U.K. footprint expands

The collaboration also includes potential development of AI systems for education and government services. Google DeepMind will explore creating a version of Gemini tailored to England’s national curriculum to help teachers reduce administrative workloads. A pilot program in Northern Ireland showed that Gemini helped save teachers an average of 10 hours per week, according to the U.K. government.

For public services, the U.K. government’s AI Incubator team is trialing Extract, a Gemini-powered tool that converts old planning documents into digital data in 40 seconds, compared to the current two-hour process.

The expanded research partnership with the U.K. AI Security Institute will focus on three areas, the government and DeepMind said: developing techniques to monitor AI systems’ so-called “chain of thought”—the reasoning steps an AI model takes to arrive at an answer; studying the social and emotional impacts of AI systems; and exploring how AI will affect employment.

U.K. AISI currently tests the safety of frontier AI models, including those from Google DeepMind and a number of other AI labs, under voluntary agreements. But the new research collaboration could potentially raise concerns about whether the U.K. AISI will remain objective in its testing of its now-partner’s models.

In response to a question on this from Fortune, William Isaac, principal scientist and director of responsibility at Google DeepMind, did not directly address the issue of how the partnership might affect the U.K. AISI’s objectivity. But he said the new research agreement puts in place “a separate kind of relationship from other points of interaction.” He also said the new partnership was focused on “question on the horizon” rather than present models, and that the researchers would publish the results of their work for anyone to review.

Isaac said there is no financial or commercial exchange as part of the research partnership, with both sides contributing people and research resources.

“We’re excited to announce that we’re going to be deepening our partnership with the U.K. AISI to really focus on exploring, really the frontier research questions that we believe are going to be important for ensuring that we have safe and responsible development,” he said.

He said the partnership will produce publicly accessible research focused on foundational questions—such as how AI impacts jobs or how talking to chatbots effects mental health—rather than policy-specific recommendations, though the findings could influence how businesses and policymakers think about AI and how to regulate it.

“We want the research to be meaningful and provide insights,” Isaac said.

Isaac described the U.K. AISI as “the crown jewel of all of the safety institutes” globally and said deepening the partnership “sends a really strong signal” about the importance of engaging responsibly as AI systems become more widely adopted.

The partnership also includes expanded collaboration on AI-enhanced approaches to cybersecurity. This will include the U.K. government exploring the sue of tools like Big Sleep, an AI agent developed by Google that autonomously hunts for previously unknown “Zero Day” cybersecurity exploits, and CodeMender, another AI agent that can search for and then automatically patch security vulnerabilities in open source software.

British Technology Secretary Liz Kendall is visiting San Francisco this week to further the U.K.-U.S. Tech Prosperity Deal, which was agreed to during U.S. President Trump’s state visit to the U.K. in September. In November alone, the British government said the pact helped secure more than $32.4 billion of private investment committed to the U.K tech sector.

The Google-U.K. partnership builds on a £5 billion ($6.7 billion) investment commitment from Google made earlier this year to support U.K. AI infrastructure and research, and to help modernize government IT systems.

The British government also said collaboration supports its AI Opportunities Action Plan and its £137 million AI for Science Strategy, which aims to position the UK as a global leader in AI-driven research.



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49-year-old Democrat who owns a gourmet olive oil store swipes another historically Republican district from Trump and Republicans

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Democrat Eric Gisler claimed an upset victory Tuesday in a special election in a historically Republican Georgia state House district.

Gisler said he was the winner of the contest, in which he was leading Republican Mack “Dutch” Guest by about 200 votes out of more than 11,000 in final unofficial returns.

Robert Sinners, a spokesperson with the secretary of state’s office, said there could be a few provisional ballots left before the tally is finalized.

“I think we had the right message for the time,” Gisler told The Associated Press in a phone interview. He credited his win to Democratic enthusiasm but also said some Republicans were looking for a change.

“A lot of what I would call traditional conservatives held their nose and voted Republican last year on the promise of low prices and whatever else they were selling,” Gisler said. “But they hadn’t received that.”

Guest did not immediately respond to a text message seeking comment late Tuesday.

Democrats have seen a number of electoral successes in 2025 as the party’s voters have been eager to express dissatisfaction with Republican President Donald Trump.

In Georgia in November, they romped to two blowouts in statewide special elections for the Public Service Commission, unseating two incumbent Republicans in campaigns driven by discontent over rising electricity costs.

Nationwide, Democrats won governor’s races by broad margins in Virginia and New Jersey. On Tuesday a Democrat defeated a Trump-endorsed Republican in the officially nonpartisan race for Miami mayor, becoming the first from his party to win the post in nearly 30 years.

Democrats have also performed strongly in some races they lost, such as a Tennessee U.S. House race last week and a Georgia state Senate race in September.

Republicans remain firmly in control of the Georgia House, but their majority is likely fall to 99-81 when lawmakers return in January. Also Tuesday, voters in a second, heavily Republican district in Atlanta’s northwest suburbs sent Republican Bill Fincher and Democrat Scott Sanders to a Jan. 6 runoff to fill a vacancy created when Rep. Mandi Ballinger died.

The GOP majority is down from 119 Republicans in 2015. It would be the first time the GOP holds fewer than 100 seats in the lower chamber since 2005, when they won control for the first time since Reconstruction.

The race between Gisler and Guest in House District 121 in the Athens area northeast of Atlanta was held to replace Republican Marcus Wiedower, who was in the seat since 2018 but resigned in the middle of this term to focus on business interests.

Most of the district is in Oconee County, a Republican suburb of Athens, reaching into heavily Democratic Athens-Clarke County. Republicans gerrymandered Athens-Clarke to include one strongly Democratic district, parceling out the rest of the county into three seats intended to be Republican.

Gisler ran against Wiedower in 2024, losing 61% to 39%. This year was Guest’s first time running for office.

A Democrat briefly won control of the district in a 2017 special election but lost to Wiedower in 2018.

Gisler, a 49-year-old Watkinsville resident, works for an insurance technology company and owns a gourmet olive oil store. He campaigned on improving health care, increasing affordability and reinvesting Georgia’s surplus funds

Guest is the president of a trucking company and touted his community ties, promising to improve public safety and cut taxes. He was endorsed by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, an Athens native, and raised far more in campaign contributions than Gisler.



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Rivian CEO says it’s a misconception EVs are politicized, with a 50-50 party split among R1 buyers

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If Rivian’s sales are any indication, owning an electric vehicle isn’t such a partisan issue, despite President Donald Trump’s rollbacks of mandates, incentives, and targets for EVs.

At the Fortune Brainstorm AI conference in San Francisco on Tuesday, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe said it’s a misconception that electrification is politicized, explaining that most customers buy a product based on how it fits their needs, not their ideology. The questions car buyers ask, he said, are the same whether they’re purchasing one with an internal-combustion engine or a battery: “Is it exciting? Are you attracted to the product? Does it draw you in? Does the brand positioning resonate with you? Do the features answer needs that you have?”

Buyers of Rivian’s R1 electric SUV are split roughly 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats, Scaringe told Fortune’s Andrew Nusca. “I think that’s extraordinarily powerful news for us to recognize—that this isn’t just left-leaning buyers,” he added. “These are people that are saying, ‘I like the idea of this product, I’m excited about it.’ And this is thousands and thousands of customers. This is statistically relevant information.”

Buying an EV was once an indication of left-leaning politics, but the politics got scrambled after Tesla CEO Elon Musk became the top Republican donor and a close adviser to Trump. That drew some new customers to Tesla, and turned off a lot of progressive EV buyers, with many existing owners putting bumper stickers on their Teslas explaining that they bought their cars before Musk’s hard-right turn. Trump and Musk later had a stunning public feud, in part over the administration’s elimination of EV and solar tax credits.

But Scaringe said he started Rivian with a long-term view, independent of any policy framework or political trends. He also insisted that if Americans have more EV choices, sales would follow. Right now, Tesla dominates a key corner of the market, namely EVs in the $50,000 price range. Rivian’s forthcoming R2 mid-size SUV will represent a new choice in that market, with a starting price of $45,000 versus the R1’s $70,000.

Ten years from now, Scaringe said he hopes—and believes—that EV adoption in the U.S. will be meaningfully higher than it is today across the board, explaining that the main constraint isn’t on the demand side. Instead, it’s on the supply side, which suffers from “a shocking lack of choice,” especially compared to Europe and China, he added. EV options in the U.S. are limited by the fact that Chinese brands are shut out of the market.

More choices for U.S. EV buyers would presumably create more competition for Rivian—and indeed, the flood of low-priced Chinese EVs in other auto markets has created a backlash, with countries such as Canada imposing steep tariffs on them. But Scaringe appears to view more competition as positive for the market overall.

“I do think that the existence of choice will help drive more penetration, and it actually creates a unique opportunity in the United States,” he said.



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