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Why restricting graduate loans will bankrupt America’s talent supply chain

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at his December 10 press conference that the U.S. labor market is becoming increasingly K-shaped: growth, opportunity, and resilience accrue to those with assets, while everyone else absorbs volatility.

What’s becoming clear is that this divide is no longer confined to the labor market. It’s now embedded in its foundation: education.

When access to advanced degrees depends not on ability or workforce demand, but on whether a household can absorb six figures of upfront cost, stratification accelerates. The upper branch compounds advantage through credentialed mobility. The lower branch absorbs risk, debt, and stalled progression.

That dynamic isn’t neutral. It’s destabilizing.

That is exactly what the restructuring of federal graduate student lending under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) does. Framed as fiscal discipline, it quietly rewires who gets to advance in the American economy—and who pays more just to try.

A Two-Tiered Talent System

Beginning July 1, 2026, the OBBBA eliminates the Graduate PLUS loan program and replaces it with lifetime federal borrowing caps. Students in a narrow set of “professional degrees” may borrow up to $200,000. Everyone else, regardless of licensure requirements or labor-market demand, is capped at $100,000.

This distinction isn’t grounded in labor force need. It’s grounded in academic prestige.

Medical and law degrees qualify for the higher cap. Advanced nursing, social work, education, and public-health degrees do not, despite requiring licensure, despite severe labor shortages, and despite being the backbone of the care economy.

For many students, that $100,000 cap isn’t theoretical. It’s binding. Especially for those who already carry undergraduate debt, it can mean running out of federal aid before finishing a required degree.

That’s not cost containment. It’s credit rationing.

And when the federal backstop disappears, students don’t stop needing capital. They’re pushed into the private market, where interest rates are higher, protections are weaker, and access depends on credit history or family wealth.

From Merit to Capital

Yale Law Professor Daniel Markovits, author of The Meritocracy Trap, argues that our modern systems of advancement have created a new aristocracy, where the elite maintain dominance not through titles, but through the monopolization of expensive human capital.

Graduate education has now been folded directly into that system. In my recent discussion with Karen Boykin-Towns, Vice Chair of the NAACP National Board of Directors, and Keisha D. Bross, the NAACP’s Director of Opportunity, Race, and Justice, we identified how the OBBBA accelerates this dynamic, creating a capital-versus-merit system.

By capping federal loans while eliminating Grad PLUS, the government isn’t discouraging debt. It’s outsourcing access to private capital. Families with liquidity pay tuition directly. Everyone else pays interest, often at double the rate. This creates a sharp bifurcation:

  1. The Upper Branch: Students with “Capital” (generational wealth or family assets) can bypass the cap using private resources, continuing their upward trajectory into high-value careers.
  2. The Lower Branch: Students with only “Merit” (talent and drive but no family wealth), disproportionately Black women, are shut out.

The result isn’t meritocracy. It’s capital-screened mobility.

And when capital, not capability, determines who becomes a nurse practitioner, a clinical social worker, or a public-health leader, the economy doesn’t get leaner. It gets weaker.

The Intersectional Cost of ‘Money Out

These loan changes don’t hit all workers equitably.

Women dominate the fields most affected by the lower cap. At least 80% of degree holders in nursing, social work, and elementary education are women. These are precisely the programs now classified as “non-professional.”

Even within the same occupations, women earn less than men. Forcing them to finance advanced degrees with higher-cost private loans raises debt-to-income ratios at career entry, increasing default risk and long-term financial strain.

For Black women, the impact is sharper still.

Black women who attended graduate school hold approximately $58,000 in federal student debt on average, more than white women or Black men. Nearly half of the Black–white student debt gap is driven by graduate borrowing, reflecting how essential advanced degrees are for upward mobility in the absence of intergenerational wealth.

Black women are also heavily concentrated in healthcare and social services, fields now subject to the $100,000 cap. Remove Grad PLUS, and the math changes fast.

Federal graduate loans currently carry fixed rates under 9%. Private loans can soar as high as 18%, particularly for borrowers without prime credit or co-signers. That gap isn’t abstract. It’s interest compounding over decades. 

Consider a Black woman pursuing an MSW who needs $30,000 beyond the new federal cap to finish her degree. Forced into the private market, she trades a federally protected 9% rate for a predatory 18% rate.

This shift actively destroys the capacity to build generational wealth. This is also a multigenerational risk: Black women are the breadwinners in 52% of Black households with children. When we financially hobble the primary earner, we are not just restricting her mobility; we are capping the economic future of the 9 million children relying on those households.

We are cannibalizing future retirement security to pay for today’s policy experiment.

Educated, and Still Locked Out

Economic policy is never gender-neutral, and it is rarely race-neutral. The OBBBA financing caps disproportionately target Black women, a demographic that serves as a linchpin in both the educated workforce and the Care Economy.

There’s a persistent myth that student debt reflects low completion or poor outcomes. The data tells a different story. In interviews conducted with NAACP leadership, they shared job-fair data showing that more than 80% of applicants held a bachelor’s degree or higher. These are educated workers, many with advanced training, struggling to access stable, well-paid roles.

They did what the system asked. They earned credentials. They pursued licensure. And now the rules are changing underneath them. That isn’t a failure of effort. It’s a failure of policy design.

The $290 Billion Macroeconomic Bill

The consequences don’t stop at individual balance sheets. The sectors pushed into the lower loan cap, nursing, social work, and public health, are already facing acute shortages. The U.S. currently has an estimated 1.8 million vacant care jobs.

Failure to address these shortages is projected to cost the economy roughly $290 billion per year in lost GDP by 2030.

When the talent pipeline narrows:

  • Employers compete harder for fewer workers, driving wage and signing-cost inflation.
  • Turnover rises. During the pandemic alone, excess nursing turnover cost between $88 billion and $137 billion.

This is how a student-loan rule becomes a productivity drag.

What a Smarter System Looks Like

If the goal is fiscal responsibility and economic growth, there is a better path.

First, the definition of “professional degree” must reflect labor-market reality, not academic hierarchy. Licensed, high-shortage fields like advanced nursing and clinical social work should qualify for the higher cap. We must value the labor that sustains society as highly as the labor that litigates it.

Second, we need non-debt investment in critical workforce education. Grants and fellowships targeted to shortage fields reduce long-term risk while maximizing return. A graduate degree delivers an estimated net lifetime value of over $300,000 for women. That value should accrue to the economy, not be siphoned off by interest payments.

Third, employers must recognize this as a supply-chain issue. Talent doesn’t appear by accident. Corporate co-investment in education, through tuition support and loan forgiveness, offers one of the highest returns available. Global research suggests health workforce investments can generate returns of up to 10-to-1.

The OBBBA was designed to manage debt. In its current form, it manufactures fragility. It hardens the K-shaped economy at its foundation. It substitutes capital for merit. And it weakens the very labor force the economy depends on to grow.

If we care about productivity, competitiveness, and long-term stability, this is the wrong place to cut. America doesn’t have a talent shortage problem. It has an access problem. And this policy just made it worse.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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The U.S. Justice Department has released tens of thousands more documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, a tranche that included multiple mentions of President Donald Trump but added little new revelatory information to the long-anticipated public file on the late financier and convicted sex offender.

The release is the most voluminous so far and comes after a massive public campaign for transparency into the U.S. government’s Epstein investigations.

Many of the mentions of Trump in the file came from news clippings, though it includes an email from a prosecutor pointing out the flights that Trump took on Epstein’s private jet during the 1990s.

The two men were friends for years before a falling out. Trump has not been accused of wrongdoing in connection with Epstein. The Justice Department issued a statement that some documents contain “untrue and sensationalist claims” about Trump made shortly before the 2020 election.

Here are some takeaways:

Prosecutor flagged Trump’s travel on Epstein’s jet

Among the mentions of Trump in the latest batch of the Epstein files is a note from a federal prosecutor from January 2020 that said Trump had flown on the financier’s private plane more often than had been previously known.

An assistant U.S. attorney from the Southern District of New York said in an email that flight records the office received on Jan. 6, 2020, showed that Trump was on Epstein’s jet “many more times than previously has been reported (or that we were aware).”

The prosecutor who flagged the Trump mentions in the flight logs said they did so because lawyers “didn’t want any of this to be a surprise down the road.”

His travels on Epstein’s plane spanned the time that would likely be covered in any criminal charges against Epstein’s co-conspirator, Ghislaine Maxwell. Trump was listed as a passenger on at least eight flights between 1993 and 1996, and on at least four of those flights, Maxwell was also there, according to the email.

On one of those eight flights, in 1993, Trump and Epstein were the only two passengers listed in the flight logs. On another flight, the three passengers listed in records are Epstein, Trump, and a redacted individual, who was 20 years old at the time. Two other flights included two women — whose names were redacted in follow-up emails — identified as potential witnesses in a Maxwell case.

Several additional Trump trips on Epstein’s plane had been previously disclosed during Maxwell’s criminal proceedings.

Asked for comment about the email, the White House pointed to a Justice Department statement saying Monday’s release contained “unfounded and false” claims against the president submitted to the FBI shortly before the 2020 election, but they were nevertheless being released for full transparency.

The Justice Department specifically raised questions about the validity of a document mentioning Trump that was styled as a letter from Epstein to Larry Nassar, the sports doctor convicted of sexually abusing Olympic athletes. The department pointed out that it was processed three days after Epstein’s death.

Meanwhile, the latest release also shows that Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s southern Florida club, was served with a subpoena in 2021 for its employment records. The disclosure came as part of an email chain in which lawyers for the Southern District of New York and an attorney in touch with representatives for the Trump Organization discussed the employment status of someone whose name was redacted.

Trump calls the files a distraction

Trump complained that the files were a distraction from the work he and other Republicans are doing for the country.

Speaking during an unrelated event at his Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday, the president blamed Democrats and some Republicans for the controversy.

“What this whole thing is with Epstein is a way of trying to deflect from the tremendous success that the Republican Party has,” Trump said.

He also expressed frustration about the famous people shown with Epstein in photos released by the Justice Department — people who he said may not have known him but ended up in the shot anyway.

“You probably have pictures being exposed of other people that innocently met Jeffrey Epstein years ago, many years ago. And they’re, you know, highly respected bankers and lawyers and others,” Trump said.

Other high-profile people are showing up in the files

Well-known people shown in the files include former President Bill Clinton, the late pop star Michael Jackson and singer Diana Ross. The mere inclusion of someone’s name or images in files from the investigation does not imply wrongdoing.

The latest release also includes files that put the U.K.’s former Prince Andrew back in the headlines.

Among those documents is correspondence between Maxwell and someone who signs off with the initial “A.”

The email exchange includes other references that suggest Maxwell’s correspondent may be Andrew. He did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The August 2001 email from someone identified only as “The Invisible Man,” said he is “up here at Balmoral Summer Camp for the Royal Family,” an apparent reference to the Scottish estate where the royal family have traditionally taken their late summer holidays.

“A” writes: “How’s LA? Have you found me some new inappropriate friends?”

The writer says he has left “the RN” and refers to the challenges of looking after “the Girls.” Andrew retired from the Royal Navy in 2001 and has two daughters.

Andrew, one of King Charles III’s younger brothers, was stripped of the right to be called a prince and his other royal titles and honors in October, amid continued publicity about his links to Epstein and concerns about the potential damage to the rest of the royal family. He is now known as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor.

Andrew has repeatedly denied committing any crimes, including having sex with Virginia Giuffre, who alleged that she was trafficked by Epstein and had sex with Andrew when she was 17.

Biggest information dump yet

Trump tried for months to keep the records sealed before relenting to political pressure, including from some fellow Republicans, though he eventually signed a bill mandating the release of most of the Justice Department’s files on Epstein.

Monday’s release was the biggest dump yet, including nearly 30,000 more pages. The data released by the law’s Friday deadline contained a fraction of that amount, mostly photographs taken during FBI searches of Epstein’s homes.

The new cache includes news clippings, emails and surveillance videos from the New York jail where Epstein was held before taking his own life in 2019, much of which was already in the public domain.

The law called for the files to be released within 30 days, but the Justice Department has instead released them in stages starting Friday. Officials have said they’re going slowly to protect victims, though some women assaulted by Epstein have spoken out publicly to call for greater transparency.

And the administration is facing fierce accusations that it is withholding too much information. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said the tens of thousands of files released still left “more questions than answers.” He pointed to a 2019 FBI email that mentions 10 people under investigation as possible co-conspirators but contains few additional details.


Associated Press writer Darlene Superville in Washington and Danica Kirka in London contributed to this report.



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Larry Ellison’s $40 billion pledge to son’s Paramount deal shows a shift in billionaire giving

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Larry Ellison, the 81-year-old Oracle co-founder and longtime mogul of tech and sport, recently sent ripples through the business and philanthropic worlds by revealing plans to devote $40 billion of his own fortune to the Paramount–Skydance merger — a deal that redefines not only Hollywood’s future but Ellison’s own legacy.

Ellison’s $40 billion promise to personally back his son’s Paramount deal is not a charitable donation in the classic sense. It is something more emblematic of this billionaire era: philanthropic capitalism, where vast personal fortunes are deployed through markets rather than around them, and “giving it away” increasingly means reshaping industries instead of writing checks to traditional charities.

It lands at the exact moment that the older model of billionaire philanthropy—epitomized by Warren Buffett and Bill Gates—is visibly winding down, creating a stark contrast between giving that flows through foundations and giving that rides on deal sheets.

Ellison’s move is as audacious as it is intimate. His son, David Ellison, runs Skydance, the upstart studio that has been circling Paramount and now aims to fuse old‑line Hollywood assets with a tech‑forward, streaming‑native strategy. Ellison’s commitment, structured as a personal guarantee of more than $40 billion in equity and debt support for Paramount’s bid, effectively turns a hostile takeover into a family‑backed capital project. It is a father’s show of confidence, but it is also a data‑era mogul’s attempt to wire his worldview into the next generation of media infrastructure.

This would be notable even if Ellison had never uttered a word about philanthropy. But the Oracle cofounder has publicly pledged to give away at least 95% of his fortune over time, joining the cohort of mega‑donors who say they do not intend to die with most of their wealth. In that context, the Paramount guarantee looks less like a side bet and more like a preview of how he intends to fulfill that promise: not primarily through anonymous grants to charities, but by moving enormous sums into entities he believes can “fix” big systems—medicine, software, and now entertainment.

Growing divide in billionaire giving

That philosophy distinguishes Ellison from someone like MacKenzie Scott, who has become the avatar of a more traditional, community‑centered model of billionaire giving. Scott has directed tens of billions of dollars in largely unrestricted donations to thousands of nonprofits, with a deliberate emphasis on organizations serving marginalized communities—ranging from housing and food security groups to HBCUs and grassroots racial‑justice networks. Her theory of change is straightforward: transfer resources quickly to on‑the‑ground organizations, trust local leaders to allocate them, and avoid the overhead and power concentration of a large foundation.

Ellison, by contrast, has long preferred to seed institutions that look more like extensions of his professional life. His largest publicized gifts have gone into cutting‑edge medical research and institutions that blend science and technology, such as cancer and AI‑driven medicine initiatives. The Paramount commitment extends that pattern into culture. Rather than funding media literacy programs or journalism nonprofits, Ellison is putting his thumb on the scale of who owns the pipes themselves: the studios, libraries, and platforms that produce and distribute stories worldwide.

He is not alone in this shift. Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan’s Chan Zuckerberg Initiative is following a similar arc. After an early phase that encompassed education reform and policy‑adjacent work, CZI has doubled down on scientific research, AI‑enabled biology, and large‑scale research infrastructure. Structurally, it operates less like a traditional foundation and more like a hybrid of investment fund and lab network, with a focus on building tools and platforms that other scientists and institutions will use. When these donors talk about “impact,” they are usually referring to rewiring how core systems operate, not simply amplifying the budgets of organizations operating within those systems.

Call it the billionaire bifurcation. On one side are philanthropists like Scott, whose giving resembles turbocharged versions of 20th‑century philanthropy: extensive checks to nonprofits, universities, and community groups, often with fewer strings attached and more attention to equity. On the other hand, are Ellison and Zuckerberg, who are pioneering a model in which philanthropy is almost indistinguishable from industrial strategy. The money may technically sit in philanthropic vehicles. Still, it flows into companies, labs, and platforms that donors help control, and that operate squarely inside the markets where their fortunes were made.

The limitations of traditional philanthropy

That raises uncomfortable questions about power and accountability. When $40 billion is pledged to underpin a media merger, framed in part as a long‑term contribution to cultural and technological progress, who gets to decide what counts as a public benefit? Shareholders will certainly have a say. Regulators may weigh in. But unlike a conventional grant to a food bank or a legal‑aid nonprofit, the social returns of a fortified Hollywood empire are diffuse, contested, and mediated through subscription prices, content strategies, and labor negotiations.

Yet philanthropic capitalism also speaks to a real anxiety among today’s richest founders: the sense that traditional philanthropy is too incremental for problems they perceive as structural and technological. For Ellison, building a stronger, AI‑savvy studio system may feel more consequential than funding a scattershot portfolio of media nonprofits. If you believe the future is written in code and distributed through a handful of global platforms, owning a bigger piece of that machinery can look like the most responsible way to spend a fortune you’ve vowed to surrender.

Ellison’s $40 billion bet on Paramount and his son’s vision may ultimately be judged as a savvy business maneuver, a risky act of paternal devotion, or a bold experiment in legacy‑building. But in the emerging playbook of billionaire giving, it already has a clear place. This is what it looks like when “giving it away” means never really letting it leave the ecosystem that created it—when philanthropy moves off the foundation ledger and onto the deal sheet, and capitalism itself becomes the main instrument of charity.

For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 



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Americans enjoy one refuge from inflation: The cheapest gas prices in years

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This holiday season, many U.S. drivers are getting the gift of lower gas prices.

According to data from motor club AAA, December has been the cheapest month for prices at the pump this year. The national average for unleaded gasoline has stayed below the $3 mark since Dec. 2, falling to its lowest level of about $2.85 a gallon on Monday.

That figure has inched up slightly since, sitting at closer to $2.86 a gallon Tuesday — but overall, consumers hitting the road ahead of the Christmas holiday will likely continue to see mild prices.

As always, some states have cheaper averages than others, due to factors ranging from nearby refinery supply to local fuel requirements. Hawaii had the highest average of about $4.44 a gallon on Tuesday, per AAA — followed by $4.30 in California and $3.92 in Washington. Meanwhile, Oklahoma had the lowest average at about $2.30 per gallon, followed by nearly $2.42 in both Arkansas and Iowa.

Still, nationwide, unleaded gasoline is down more than 18 cents than it was at this time last year, and 21 cents from a month ago. So far, AAA says that prices seen this month mark the cheapest December for gas prices since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic roiled the economy.

The travel organization notes that this month’s cheaper prices arrive as supply remains strong. Crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has also been at a relatively mild level — with West Texas Intermediate remaining below the $60 per barrel mark for most of December.

Relief at the pump is welcome for consumers who have been feeling higher prices in other parts of their budgets — as worries about the costs of goods ranging from groceries to holiday gifts rise amid ongoing inflation and U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on foreign imports.

Government data actually showed that consumer prices cooled in November, rising at just 2.7% from a year earlier. But year-over-year inflation still remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target — and economists quickly warned that last month’s numbers were suspect because of delays and possible distortions from the 43-day federal shutdown.

Most Americans have continued to express anger and frustration about the high cost of living — as well as an uncertain job market. On Tuesday, the Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index fell in December to its lowest level since April.



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