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Why lowering the yield on 10-year bonds is more important to Trump than the stock market or interest rates

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  • The Trump administration has talked a lot about the yield on the 10-year Treasury, the benchmark for rates on mortgages and other common types of loans, as the president pledges to bring down borrowing costs for Americans. Data suggests more households are exposed to changes in interest rates than swings in the stock market, but the effect of tariffs on inflation might ultimately be the most impactful economic issue for voters. 

Donald Trump loved to brag about the stock market at the start of his first stint in the Oval Office. But as share prices tumble amid his on-again, off-again tariff threats and mounting recession fears, the president has indicated he’s no longer using the S&P 500, which closed in correction territory on Thursday after the index dropped 10% from its high in mid-February, as a yardstick during his second term. 

Instead, the new administration, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, has been much more vocal about the bond market and Trump’s pledge to lower borrowing costs for Americans. Bessent has said the president’s focus is on seeing a decline in the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, the benchmark for rates in the country’s nearly $12.6 trillion mortgage market, many corporate bonds, and the government’s own interest payments.

“We’re focused on the real economy. Can we create an environment where there are long-term gains in the market and long-term gains for the American people?” Bessent told CNBC Thursday. “I’m not concerned about a little bit of volatility over three weeks.”

Regardless of Trump’s true feelings, the data suggests Americans are more exposed to changes in interest rates than swings in the stock market. While just about six in 10 Americans report owning stock, according to a 2023 Gallup poll, nearly 80% of American households have some type of debt, according to the Federal Reserve. The 10-year yield has fallen roughly 50 basis points since the week before Trump’s inauguration, though it ticked up to 4.30% Friday morning.

“More voters are impacted by interest rates than the S&P,” political strategist and venture investor Bradley Tusk told Fortune. “But inflation dwarfs both of them.”

It’s clear markets are no fan of tariff uncertainty, though stocks bounced back a bit Friday morning. It remains to be seen whether more protectionist measures will result in slower growth, higher prices, both (the worst-case scenario), or neither. Even as many Americans have presumably seen the value of their 401k and other retirement plans drop in recent weeks, there are signs the decline in yields is already having an impact.

Mortgage rates fell for a month-and-a-half before Freddie Mac’s weekly estimate ticked slightly higher Thursday, though the agency said the average rate on a 30-year mortgage has fallen to 6.65% after surpassing the 7% threshold in early January.

“Despite this minor bump, rates are still at their lowest levels of the year and if they continue to fall, could provide a welcome boost as the spring housing market kicks off,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist of multiple listing service Bright MLS, wrote in a note Thursday.

Lower mortgage payments may not address the nation’s structural housing deficit, but they could prod homeowners who have felt “locked in” to rates they obtained before borrowing costs spiked in 2022. Mortgage loan application volume increased 11% last week, according to an index calculated by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Why Trump is eyeing the 10-year Treasury

Long-term yields are highly correlated with the Federal Reserve’s overnight lending rate for banks, which allows the central bank’s decisions to be transmitted throughout the economy. The relationship isn’t perfect, however, because the market for free-floating assets like the 10-year Treasury is also based on other factors, explained Matt Sheridan, lead portfolio manager for income strategies at AllianceBernstein. Expectations for economic growth, inflation, and fiscal policy also play a role, he said.

Yields, which represent an investor’s annual return, fall as bond prices rise—and vice versa. That tends to happen if investors believe the Fed will be forced to cut rates, which makes the higher payments on existing bonds more attractive relative to new debt.

Conversely, if concern about the government’s debt burden increases, investors might demand a higher return. Over the last few months, Sheridan said, fixed-income investors have worried less about the federal deficit and are now more anxious about the economy. Initially, many traders believed Trump would be focused on pro-growth aspects of his agenda like tax cuts and deregulation.

“I think investors were a little bit surprised the new administration is prioritizing tariffs,” he said.

A White House spokesperson said the bond market’s minor rally reflected the new administration’s efforts to restore “fiscal stability and confidence.”

“President Trump has been committed to restoring our nation’s fiscal credibility, which was undermined by the previous administration’s reckless spending,” Harrison Fields, deputy press secretary and special assistant to the president, said in a statement.

Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, said it’s wrong to suggest Trump wasn’t willing to look past equity volatility during his first term. After all, despite the president citing the stock market’s performance roughly once roughly every 35 hours throughout January 2018, per Politico, the S&P 500 eventually declined 6% that year as Trump launched a first trade war with China.

“President Trump tweets about the stock prices when they go up,” Papic said, “and he doesn’t when they go down.”

Some demographics that tend to have lower exposure to the stock market have also appeared to gravitate to Trump, who bested Harris and his own 2020 performance in November among voters without a college degree and those making less than $100,000.

“They probably don’t care about the stock market, but they [also may not be] in the market to buy a new home,” said Tusk, who served as campaign manager for former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg.

“But what they do do is buy groceries,” he added, “or they might want to buy a new truck.”

Auto loans aside, that’s why inflation and potential price increases from tariffs, he said, are the economic issues that loom largest.

Correction: This story was corrected to reflect that the report from Politico found President Donald Trump boasted roughly once every 35 hours during January 2018.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Trump says he’s ‘very angry’ with Putin, threatens oil penalties

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President Donald Trump said he’s “pissed off” at Russian President Vladimir Putin and would consider “secondary tariffs” on Russian oil if a ceasefire with Ukraine can’t be reached, NBC News reported.

Trump said he was “very angry” about recent comments by Putin suggesting ways to install a new leadership in Ukraine and sideline President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, NBC reported, citing a phone interview with Trump on Sunday.

“I was pissed off about it. But if a deal isn’t made, and if I think it was Russia’s fault, I’m going to put secondary sanctions on Russia,” Trump said. He told NBC he plans to speak to Putin this week. 

Putin has been testing Trump to see how far he can go in pressing Europe to ease sanctions on Russia. Trump portrayed his threat against Putin as a bargaining tool.

“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” he said.

“That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all – on all oil, a 25 to 50-point tariff on all oil,” he said.

Read more: Putin Tests How Far Trump Will Go Against Europe on Sanctions

While Ukraine has said it would immediately observe a ceasefire, the Kremlin appeared to catch the White House off guard by declaring that its participation was dependent on removing sanctions on Russian Agricultural Bank, or RSHB, and other financial institutions involved in foreign trade in food and fertilizers.

After three days of negotiations in Saudi Arabia last week, the US announced on Tuesday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to the Black Sea truce as the next stage in Trump’s efforts to end the war, following their acceptance of a 30-day halt to strikes on energy infrastructure.

Trump on Monday appeared to invent a new economic statecraft tactic by threatening what he dubbed “secondary tariffs” on countries that buy oil from Venezuela to choke off its oil trade with other nations. 

The threat, confirmed in an executive order by Trump, said countries could face 25% tariffs on trade with the US if they purchase oil and gas from Venezuela, which is already under heavy US sanctions. The move was meant to pressure Venezuela for the “tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals” that Trump said Venezuela has sent to the US.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Trump’s promised ‘Liberation Day’ of tariffs is coming. Here’s what it could mean for you

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 President Donald Trump says Wednesday will be “Liberation Day” — a moment when he plans to roll out a set of tariffs that he promises will free the United States from foreign goods.

The details of Trump’s next round of import taxes are still sketchy. Most economic analyses say average U.S. families would have to absorb the cost of his tariffs in the form of higher prices and lower incomes. But an undeterred Trump is inviting CEOs to the White House to say they are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in new projects to avoid the import taxes.

It is also possible that the tariffs are short-lived if Trump feels he can cut a deal after imposing them.

“I’m certainly open to it, if we can do something,” Trump told reporters. “We’ll get something for it.”

At stake are family budgets, America’s prominence as the world’s leading financial power and the structure of the global economy.

Here’s what you should know about the impending trade penalties:

What exactly does Trump plan to do?

He wants to announce import taxes, including “reciprocal” tariffs that would match the rates charged by other countries and account for other subsidies. Trump has talked about taxing the European Union, South Korea, Brazil and India, among other countries.

As he announced 25% auto tariffs last week, he alleged that America has been ripped off because it imports more goods than it exports.

“This is the beginning of Liberation Day in America,” Trump said. “We’re going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of things that they’ve been taking over the years. They’ve taken so much out of our country, friend and foe. And, frankly, friend has been oftentimes much worse than foe.”

In an interview Saturday with NBC News, Trump said it did not bother him if tariffs caused vehicle prices to rise because autos with more U.S. content could possibly be more competitively priced.

“I hope they raise their prices, because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars,” Trump said. “I couldn’t care less because if the prices on foreign cars go up, they’re going to buy American cars.”

Trump has also suggested that he will be flexible with his tariffs, saying he will treat other nations better than they treated the United States. But he still has plenty of other taxes coming on imports.

The Republican president plans to tax imported pharmaceutical drugs, copper and lumber. He has put forth a 25% tariff on any country that imports oil from Venezuela, even though the United States also does so. Imports from China are being charged an additional 20% tax because of its role in fentanyl production. Trump has imposed separate tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico for the stated reason of stopping drug smuggling and illegal immigration. Trump also expanded his 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs to 25% on all imports.

Some aides suggest the tariffs are tools for negotiation on trade and border security; others say the revenues will help reduce the federal budget deficit. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says they will force other nations to show Trump “respect.”

What could tariffs do to the US economy?

Nothing good, according to most economists. They say the tariffs would get passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices for autos, groceries, housing and other goods. Corporate profits could be lower and growth more sluggish. Trump maintains that more companies would open factories to avoid the taxes, though that process could take three years or more.

Economist Art Laffer estimates the tariffs on autos, if fully implemented, could increase per vehicle costs by $4,711, though he said he views Trump as a smart and savvy negotiator. The investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates the economy will grow this quarter at an annual rate of just 0.6%, down from a rate of 2.4% at the end of last year.

Mayor Andrew Ginther of Columbus, Ohio, said on Friday that tariffs could increase the median cost of a home by $21,000, making affordability more of an obstacle because building materials would cost more.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that tariffs would be a one-time price adjustment, rather than the start of an inflationary spiral. But Bessent’s conclusion rests on tariffs being brief or contained, rather than leading other countries to retaliate with their own tariffs or seeping into other sectors of the economy.

“There is a chance tariffs on goods begin to filter through to the pricing of services,” said Samuel Rines, a strategist at WisdomTree. “Auto parts get move expensive, then auto repair gets more expensive, then auto insurance feels the pressure. While goods are the focus, tariffs could have a longer-term effect on inflation.”

How are other nations thinking about the new tariffs?

Most foreign leaders see the tariffs as destructive for the global economy, even if they are prepared to impose their own countermeasures.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Trump’s tariff threats had ended the partnership between his country and the United States, even as the president on Friday talked about his phone call with Carney in relatively positive terms. Canada already has announced retaliatory tariffs.

French President Emmanuel Macron said the tariffs were “not coherent” and would mean “breaking value chains, creating inflation in the short term and destroying jobs. It’s not good for the American economy, nor for the European, Canadian or Mexican economies.” Yet Macron said his nation would defend itself with the goal of dismantling the tariffs.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has avoided the tit-for-tat responses on tariffs, but she sees it as critical to defend jobs in her country.

The Chinese government said Trump’s tariffs would harm the global trading system and would not fix the economic challenges identified by Trump.

“There are no winners in trade wars or tariff wars, and no country’s development and prosperity are achieved through imposing tariffs,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said.

How did Trump land on it being called ‘Liberation Day’?

Based off Trump’s public statements, April 2 is at least the third “liberation day” that he has identified.

At a rally last year in Nevada, he said the day of the presidential election, Nov. 5, would be “Liberation Day in America.” He later gave his inauguration the same label, declaring in his address: “For American citizens, Jan. 20, 2025, is Liberation Day.”

His repeated designation of the term is a sign of just how much importance Trump places on tariffs, an obsession of his since the 1980s. Dozens of other countries recognize their own form of liberation days to recognize events such as overcoming Nazi Germany or the end of a previous political regime deemed oppressive.

Trump sees his tariffs as providing national redemption, but the slumping consumer confidence and stock market indicate that much of the public believes the U.S. economy will pay the price for his ambitions.

“I don’t see anything positive about Liberation Day,” said Phillip Braun, a finance professor at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. “It’s going to hurt the U.S. economy. Other countries are going to retaliate.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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