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Why gold went through the roof this year

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The S&P 500 closed up 0.46% yesterday to hit a new record of 6,909.79. The index is now up 17.48% for the year. With only the quiet Christmas week left before the end of the year it’s likely that investors will mark this down in their spreadsheets as a very good year.

Unless, of course, they have a friend who bought gold at or before the beginning of 2025. The price of gold is up an astonishing 71% year-to-date, and is currently hovering around $4,514 per troy ounce. That friend is now laughing at you, the foolish stock investor, for wasting your money on trivia like the Magnificent Seven.

There’s a hackneyed narrative explaining why gold went up: We had a volatile year with President Trump’s tariffs disrupting global trade; Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine; there’s a bubble in AI-related tech stocks; Bitcoin went nowhere this year (it’s down 7%); inflation is trending up; and gold is the safe-haven investment for nervous investors who want a hedge against pretty much all of that. 

In fact, that is only partially true, according to newish research from Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey of the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. The reality, they say, is that the introduction in 2004 of gold exchange-traded funds—which make buying gold as easy as buying stocks—has permanently pushed up the price of gold.

“Total North American gold ETFs have almost $200 billion, and ETFs outside the U.S. account for another $175 billion in gold,” they said in an October 2025 research paper.

This chart shows the apparent effect on the price of gold following the introduction of gold ETFs. The chart shows the “real” price of gold, which discounts inflation from its price:

The more recent introduction of tokenized gold stablecoins—crypto tokens backed by gold reserves and thus pegged to the price of gold, which can be “staked” or locked up as investments in other risk assets like bonds—is likely to push the price up further, they say.

But don’t get too excited.

Gold isn’t actually a great hedge against inflation over the long run, Erb and Harvey argue. The price of gold has high volatility, whereas inflation is a low-vol phenomenon. Gold investors can thus spend years losing money if they are trying to beat inflation:

And then there is the performance of gold generally, in nominal dollars, versus stocks. This chart shows the price of gold over the last 40 years. Note that gold can spend years and years in long-term price declines:

And here is the Comex continuous contract for gold versus the S&P 500 index over the last 20 years. Clearly, the winner ain’t gold:

So has gold peaked? No one knows, obviously. But it is interesting that investment banks like Société Générale, Morgan Stanley, and Mitsui have all expanded their precious metal trading teams this year, and other banks are exploring getting back into the “vault” business of storing gold reserves, the Financial Times reports.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

  • S&P 500 futures were flat this morning. The last session closed up 0.46% to hit a new record of 6,909.79. 
  • STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.39% in early trading. 
  • The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.12% in early trading. 
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.14%. 
  • China’s CSI 300 was up 0.29%. 
  • The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.21%. 
  • India’s NIFTY 50 was down 0.14%. 
  • Bitcoin was at $87K.
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Tricolor paid CEO $30 million in year before alleged fraud

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Tricolor Holdings founder Daniel Chu collected nearly $30 million in compensation in the year leading up to the subprime auto lender’s collapse amid alleged fraud, according to a lawsuit filed by the trustee overseeing the company’s liquidation.

Chu “defrauded Tricolor by using corporate funds to pay for lavish personal expenses and by forcing the company into paying him tens of millions of dollars in bonuses (on top of his executive salary),” trustee Anne Burns said in a court filing last week. That compensation was “premised on his ability to deliver exceptional financial results — results that were the product of the fraud.”

The payments helped finance what the trustee described as an extravagant lifestyle, including luxury homes in Dallas, Beverly Hills and Miami worth about $38 million combined, as well as private-jet travel and European vacations.

“Many of the allegations that have been made against Mr. Chu in recent days are inaccurate and seriously misguided, as will be clear when the real facts come out,” Matthew Schwartz, an attorney for Chu, said in a statement. “We look forward to a full and fair hearing in the courtroom.” 

US prosecutors charged Chu and the company’s former chief operating officer last week with running Tricolor through “systemic fraud.” Two other former executives have pleaded guilty to fraud charges.

Read More: Tricolor’s Excel Guy Failed to Fix Numbers in Alleged Fraud

Chu charged millions of dollars to his business American Express card over the years, the trustee alleged, including for skin revitalization treatment, vitamin infusions and dental work. He also frequented high-end restaurants including Nobu in New York and Carbone in Dallas, according to the filing.

He continued using corporate funds to pay for personal expenses even after it was clear to him the company was in financial distress, the trustee alleged. For instance, as late as August 2025 Chu charged $18,000 to his American Express card to pay for membership to Core Club, a social club in New York, according to the suit. 

In emails attached to the suit, Chu told an auditor and board members in 2023 that he was experiencing “over the top” stress, when questions arose over his personal spending. “So with respect to expenses for my family to accompany me on travel, household expenses like a nanny, or IV treatments, this is some of my context,” Chu wrote in one email.

“I do feel like I’ve exercised good judgment on these expenses,” Chu said in another email cited in the suit.

Compensation Fight

Chu pitched the board on compensation increases for years, citing the company’s revenue and sales growth since 2018, the trustee alleged.

In 2022, a consultancy retained by Tricolor’s board found Chu’s compensation to be in line with the average for private US companies. But Chu wanted to be paid on par with the 10th percentile of public companies, even though Tricolor wasn’t one.

The board pushed back, according to emails cited in the lawsuit. Chu called the compensation committee process “grossly mismanaged” and referred to one board member as a “top imbecile” for challenging the pay package, filings show.

Chu used his role as the sole manager of Tricolor’s majority shareholder to remove three board members that opposed his compensation requests, the trustee alleged.

Days after the board approved his compensation in February, Chu agreed to buy a ski chalet in Aspen, Colorado, for $25 million, according to the lawsuit. The deal collapsed after Tricolor filed to liquidate, with Chu forfeiting a $1.75 million deposit.

(Updates with detail on Core Club in seventh paragraph.)



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When Washington Governor Bob Ferguson proposed the state’s first income tax in modern history, he said the word “affordability” five times. 

Ferguson on Tuesday asked the legislature to craft a 9.9% tax on personal income over $1 million, which would revolutionize a state revenue system heavily reliant on sales and property tax. Although his fellow Democrats have for decades failed to push through an income tax, Ferguson said it’s “a different time right now.”

“We are facing an affordability crisis,” Ferguson said. “It is time to change our state’s outdated, upside-down tax system. To serve the needs of Washingtonians today, to make our taxes the more fair, millionaires should contribute toward our shared prosperity.”

Democrats across the US are increasingly exploring taxes as a way to capture the populist moment and address the country’s widening wealth gap. If “affordability” was the issue highlighted by Democrats who outperformed expectations in the off-year elections of 2025, the slogan next year could very well be “tax the rich.”

It’s an opening Democrats see as the Trump administration this year paired tax cuts for high earners with reductions in Medicaid and supplemental food assistance. Raising taxes on the wealthy could also help solve a fiscal problem for states dedicating more resources to plug the holes from federal cuts.

“We have a federal government that has gone into super-villain mode, seeming to deliberately take from the poor and middle class to give to the rich,” said Darien Shanske, a tax professor at UC Davis School of Law. “This unnecessary emergency is laying down a gauntlet for states: Will they let this suffering come to pass and, if not, how will they pay for the triage? Taxes on the best-off are not just fair but also efficient.”

Read more: Millionaire Tax That Mamdani Loves Fuels a $5.7 Billion Haul

Progressive tax advocates often point to Massachusetts’ 4% surtax on incomes over $1 million, which brought in roughly $5.7 billion in fiscal 2025, far exceeding revenue projections in its third year of collection. 

New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani campaigned on raising the city’s income tax on millionaires by 2 percentage points to 5.9%, which critics said would lead to an exodus of wealthy people.

Colorado voters this year approved a measure to limit deductions for taxpayers earning at least $300,000. The revenue will fund a program providing free meals for all public school students. Colorado officials also advanced a ballot measure to change the state’s 4.41% flat rate to a graduated income tax, potentially raising more than $4 billion. That will likely go before voters in 2026. 

Michigan residents could also face a ballot initiative next year to change the state’s flat 4.25% tax rate to add a 5% surcharge on individuals earning more than $500,000 and couples making more than $1 million.

Romney’s Call

Even 2012 Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney has joined the call. Last week, the former US senator from Utah penned an essay in the New York Times calling for rich people to pay more, mostly in the form of closing loopholes the wealthy use to minimize tax obligations.

“It would help us avoid the cliff ahead,” Romney said, pointing to government funding shortfalls, “and might tend to quiet some of the anger that will surely grow as unemployed college graduates see tax-advantaged multibillionaires sailing 300-foot yachts.”

Most of the populist proposals coming from the states would raise taxes on income. But the tricky thing about some wealth is that it doesn’t come from a paycheck and thus is harder to tax. Even a levy on capital gains depends on a taxpayer selling assets to realize that increased value. 

For example, former Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer’s net worth increased by $706.5 billion on Monday, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Even though his mansion sits across the lake from downtown Seattle, those gains wouldn’t be subject to an income tax. 

That’s why some Washington state Democrats are still pushing for the US’s first wealth tax on unrealized gains. Under a proposal passed by the state Senate last year, portfolios of some publicly traded asset classes worth at least $50 million would be taxed at 0.5%. 

Ferguson panned the wealth tax proposal last year, saying it would be irresponsible to balance the budget on a measure that would certainly face legal challenges. 

One of the most common warnings from tax opponents is that once legislators have a new tax mechanism, they’ll either increase the rate or lower the threshold at which it would apply. Ferguson in his income-tax proposal nodded to that concern, saying the $1 million level should increase with inflation and be included in the statute or perhaps even a constitutional amendment.

Read More: Vegas Lures Millionaires Fleeing Wealth Tax in Washington State

State taxes are also easier to avoid than federal taxes, because it’s relatively easy to move a primary residency. Washington used to attract taxpayers fed up with California’s high rates, but that has changed since the Evergreen State started taxing capital gains. Next year could be the year of the millionaire’s tax — in Washington state and across the US. 



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Southern California in ‘great danger’ from Christmas flooding

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Residents of Southern California were bracing Wednesday for a powerful winter storm forecast to bring dangerous flooding as well as rock and mudslides to the region, threatening property and snarling holiday travel plans.

Peak rainfall in parts of the region is expected to reach as high as 1.5 inches per hour, according to the National Weather Service. The foothills and mountains south of Point Conception, which include parts of Los Angeles and Santa Barbara, are projected to receive up to nine inches (25 centimeters) of rain by 10 p.m. local time on Christmas Eve. The rain will continue to fall on Thursday, Christmas Day, and a total of 14 inches could soak the region (35 centimeters) by Friday.

“Severe, widespread flash flooding is expected,” the US Weather Prediction Center said in a forecast early Wednesday. “Lives and property are in great danger.”

Coastal regions of Southern California will receive multiple months’ worth of rain in a span of one to three days, according to AccuWeather.

Some Los Angeles County residents have already been ordered to evacuate areas that are vulnerable to mudslides and officials warned of possible road closures, airport delays and flight cancellations.

Read more: Southern California Faces ‘High Risk’ Floods as Storm Hits

Forecasters were also urging Californians to drive with care and never attempt to drive through flooded roadways. 

Join us at the Fortune Workplace Innovation Summit May 19–20, 2026, in Atlanta. The next era of workplace innovation is here—and the old playbook is being rewritten. At this exclusive, high-energy event, the world’s most innovative leaders will convene to explore how AI, humanity, and strategy converge to redefine, again, the future of work. Register now.





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