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Why AI’s ‘vibe shift’ looks like an inflection point

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Good morning. It has been nearly three years since OpenAI’s ChatGPT first made its debut, and its arrival has profoundly reshaped the future of work.

Amid the whirlwind that began in November 2022, my colleague Sharon Goldman assesses our current position in her new Fortune feature article, “We’re not in an ‘AI winter’—but here’s how to survive a cold snap.”

Goldman notes that Gartner forecasts global AI spending will reach nearly $1.5 trillion in 2025 and surpass $2 trillion in 2026, driven by integration into smartphones, PCs, and enterprise infrastructure. Big AI companies, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft, continue to benefit from the AI boom.

However, at the ground level, among customers and in financial markets, there may be an adjustment of expectations. Rowan Curran, principal analyst at Forrester Research, told Goldman that a necessary reset is underway: “Our thermometer was broken before. Now we’re finally getting the correct temperature.” He explained that enterprises are not pulling back from AI, but are recalibrating after a period of overhyped expectations.

Bill Briggs, chief technology officer at Deloitte, acknowledged a “vibe shift” around AI but said it’s not comparable to the late-1990s tech bust: “It’s certainly at an inflection point, but I don’t see this being a repeat of the dotcom bust,” Briggs told Goldman. He emphasized that AI is still driving transformation and that new business models are just beginning.

Goldman writes, “Overall, [Briggs] said, AI is becoming less of a rising star and more of an ambient operator that will quietly influence how organizations think about every process, product, and decision. ‘AI is poised to evolve much like electricity—invisible in our daily lives but powering everything,’ he said.” Perhaps AI’s biggest impact will come from the way it quietly revolutionizes daily life and the workplace.

(You can read Goldman’s complete article here, where she also speaks with experts on how to steer AI investments wisely.)

Over the past year, I have spoken with CFOs about the acceleration of AI in the workplace, including its use for their own tasks. Recently, I talked with Verizon CFO Tony Skiadas about turning AI into a revenue source. Skiadas also shared that he encourages his team to develop innovative AI use cases and explained how he personally uses AI.

“I even use it myself for simple things,” he said. For example, Skiadas uses AI to digest reports and summarize documents: “It’s a time saver for me. And I tell people, if I can use it, anybody can. So that’s my motivation to my team.”

Have a good weekend. See you on Monday.

Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

Leaderboard

Some notable moves this week:

Joao Laranjo was promoted to CFO of Stellantis N.V. Laranjo succeeds Doug Ostermann, who has resigned from the company for personal reasons. Laranjo rejoined Stellantis earlier this year as CFO of Stellantis North America under the company’s new management. He also previously worked at Goodyear, as well as Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, as chief accounting officer for Latin America, rising to CFO for the region. He began his career at General Electric in 2001, serving as an associate auditor and later as controller for GE Healthcare in South America.

Steve Rai was appointed EVP and CFO of Open Text Corporation (Nasdaq: OTEX), a cloud and AI company, effective Oct. 6. Rai brings over 30 years of experience. He most recently served as CFO of BlackBerry Limited. Before that, Rai held senior finance positions at PMC-Sierra and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.

Daniel Sullivan was appointed CFO of Five Below, Inc. (Nasdaq: FIVE), a retail chain. Sullivan has 35 years of experience. He most recently served as EVP and chief operating officer at Edgewell Personal Care, initially joining the company as CFO. Sullivan previously served as CFO of Party City and CFO of Ahold USA, as well as CFO and COO of Heineken USA and Heineken International.

Allison Dorval was appointed CFO of AIRNA, a biotech company. Dorval has more than 25 years of experience. She most recently served as CFO of Verve Therapeutics and played a key role in its acquisition by Eli Lilly. Before Verve, Dorval was CFO of Voyager Therapeutics and held senior finance leadership positions with multiple other biopharma companies.

Amir Jafari was appointed CFO of Couchbase, Inc. (Nasdaq: BASE), a data platform provider, effective immediately. Jafari joins Couchbase from Blend Labs, where he most recently served as CFO and head of finance and operations. Before Blend, he held CFO roles at multiple companies, as well as in finance and product leadership roles at ServiceNow.

Bill Kayser was appointed president and CFO of Iterative Health, a health care technology and services company. Kayser brings over two decades of experience in health care finance, strategy, and leadership, most recently serving as CFO of GI Alliance, an independent gastroenterology practice entity, acquired by Cardinal in 2025. Before GI Alliance, Kayser was CFO of Prospero Health (acquired by Optum) and VP of corporate strategy and M&A at McKesson.

Venkat Ramanan was appointed CFO of Immatics N.V. (Nasdaq: IMTX), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, effective immediately. Ramanan has over 25 years of experience. He joins Immatics from Anthos Therapeutics, a Novartis company, where he served as CFO. He will succeed Immatics’ current CFO, Arnd Christ. Previously, Ramanan was CFO at Turnstone Biologics, where he led the company’s IPO. Earlier, he was SVP of finance at Seagen.

Big Deal

A new report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), “The Widening AI Value Gap: Build for the Future 2025,” is a global survey of 1,250 senior executives and AI decision makers across nine industries. The study finds the performance gap between AI leaders and laggards is widening fast, primarily driven by the rise of agentic AI. According to BCG, agents already account for 17% of total AI value in 2025, and that share is expected to reach 29% by 2028.

Going deeper

Here are four Fortune weekend reads:

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway may have scored a ‘genius’ win-win in $10 billion acquisition that may be the last big deal of his career” by Jordan Blum

Landing on the S&P 500 means a surefire stock boost—and a pleasant surprise for the CEO” by Jeff John Roberts

Inside Ralph Lauren’s luxe reset—and the CEO who made it stick” by Phil Wahba

Jane Goodall made a name for herself with no degree, no experience: She got a job as a waitress and saved ‘every penny’ on a one-way ticket to Africa” by Preston Fore

Overheard

“I would say what I’m most proud of is the team I built, together with [Ford Chair Bill Ford], as well as the foundation.”

—Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley told CNBC this week when marking his fifth year leading the Detroit automaker. Farley has been working to make the company more capital efficient, improve quality to reduce recall and warranty costs, and grow profit margins.



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Gates Foundation, OpenAI unveil $50 million ‘Horizon1000’ initiative to boost healthcare in Africa through AI

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In a major effort to close the global health equity gap, the Gates Foundation and OpenAI are partnering on “Horizon1000,” a collaborative initiative designed to integrate artificial intelligence into healthcare systems across Sub-Saharan Africa. Backed by a joint $50 million commitment in funding, technology, and technical support, the partnership aims to equip 1,000 primary healthcare clinics with AI tools by 2028, Bill Gates announced in a statement on his Gates Notes, where he detailed how he sees AI playing out as a “gamechanger” for expanding access to quality care.

The initiative will begin operations in Rwanda, working directly with African leaders to pioneer the deployment of AI in health settings. With a core principle of the Foundation being to ensure that people in developing regions do not have to wait decades for new technologies to reach them, the goal in this partnership is to reach 1,000 primary health care clinics and their surrounding communities by 2028.

“A few years ago, I wrote that the rise of artificial intelligence would mark a technological revolution as far-reaching for humanity as microprocessors, PCs, mobile phones, and the Internet,” Gates wrote. “Everything I’ve seen since then confirms my view that we are on the cusp of a breathtaking global transformation.”

Addressing a Critical Workforce Shortage

The impetus for Horizon1000, Gates said, is a desperate and persistent shortage of healthcare workers in poorer regions, a bottleneck that threatens to stall 25 years of progress in global health. While child mortality has been halved and diseases like polio and HIV are under better control, the lack of personnel remains a critical vulnerability.

Sub-Saharan Africa currently faces a shortfall of nearly 6 million healthcare workers, ” a gap so large that even the most aggressive hiring and training efforts can’t close it in the foreseeable future.” This deficit creates an untenable situation where overwhelmed staff must triage high volumes of patients without sufficient administrative support or modern clinical guidance. The consequences are severe: the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that low-quality care is a contributing factor in 6 million to 8 million deaths annually in low- and middle-income countries.

Rwanda, the first beneficiary of the Horizon1000 initiative, illustrates the scale of the challenge. The nation currently has only one healthcare worker per 1,000 people, significantly below the WHO recommendation of four per 1,000. Gates noted that at the current pace of hiring and training, it would take 180 years to close that gap. “As part of the Horizon1000 initiative, we aim to accelerate the adoption of AI tools across primary care clinics, within communities, and in people’s homes,” Gates wrote. “These AI tools will support health workers, not replace them.”

AI as the ‘Third Major Discovery

Gates noted comments from Rwanda’s Minister of Health Dr. Sabin Nsanzimana, who recently announced the launch of an AI-powered Health Intelligence Center in Kigali. Nsanzimana described AI as the third major discovery to transform medicine, following vaccines and antibiotics, Gates noted, saying that he agrees with this view. “If you live in a wealthier country and have seen a doctor recently, you may have already seen how AI is making life easier for health care workers,” Gates wrote. “Instead of taking notes constantly, they can now spend more time talking directly to you about your health, while AI transcribes and summarizes the visit.”

In countries with severe infrastructure limitations, he wrote, these capabilities will foster systems that help solve “generational challenges” that were previously unaddressable.

As the initiative rolls out over the next few years, the Gates Foundation plans to collaborate closely with innovators and governments in Sub-Saharan Africa. Gates wrote that he himself plans to visit the region soon to see these AI solutions in action, maintaining a focus on how technology can meet the most urgent needs of billions in low- and middle-income countries.



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On Netflix’s earnings call, co-CEOs can’t quell fears about the Warner Bros. bid

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When it comes to creating irresistible storylines, Netflix, the home of Stranger Things and The Crown, is second to none. And as the streaming video giant delivered its quarterly earnings report on Tuesday, executives were in top storytelling form, pitching what they promise will be a smash hit: the acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery.

The company’s co-CEOs, Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, said the deal, which values Warner Brothers Discovery at $83 billion, will accelerate its own core streaming business while helping it expand into TV and the theatrical film business. 

“This is an exciting time in the business. Lots of innovation, lots of competition,” Sarandos enthused on Tuesday’s earnings conference call. Netflix has a history of successful transformation and of pivoting opportunistically, he reminded the audience: Once upon a time, its main business entailed mailing DVDs in red envelopes to customers’ homes. 

Despite Sarandos’ confident delivery, however, the pitch didn’t land with investors. The company’s stock, which was already down 15% since Netflix announced the deal in early December, sank another 4.9% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. 

Netflix’s financial results for the final quarter of 2025 were fine. The company beat EPS expectations by a penny, and said it now has 325 million paid subscribers and a worldwide total audience nearing 1 billion. Its 2026 revenue outlook, of between $50.7 billion and $51.7 billion, was right on target.  

Still, investors are worried that the Warner Bros. deal will force Netflix to compete outside its lane, causing management to lose focus. The fact that Netflix will temporarily halt its share buybacks in order to accumulate cash to help finance the deal, as it disclosed towards the bottom of Tuesday’s shareholder letter, probably didn’t help matters. 

And given that there’s a rival offer for Warner Bros from Paramount Skydance, it’s not unreasonable for investors to worry that Netflix may be forced into an expensive bidding war. (Even though Warner Brothers Discovery has accepted the Netflix offer over Paramount’s, no one believes the story is over—not even Netflix, which updated its $27.75 per share offer to all-cash, instead of stock and cash, hours earlier on Tuesday in order to provide WBD shareholders with “greater value certainty.”) 

Investors are wary; will regulators balk?

Warner Brothers investors are not the only audience that Netflix needs to win over. The deal must be blessed by antitrust regulators—a prospect whose outcome is harder to predict than ever in the Trump administration.

Sarandos and Peters laid out the case Tuesday for why they believe the deal will get through the regulatory process, framing the deal as a boon for American jobs.

“This is going to allow us to significantly expand our production capacity in the U.S. and to keep investing in original content in the long term, which means more opportunities for creative talent and more jobs,” Sarandos said.

Referring to Warner Brothers’ television and film businesses, he added that “these folks have extensive experience and expertise. We want them to stay on and run those businesses. We’re expanding content creation not collapsing it.”

It’s a compelling story. But the co-CEOs may have neglected to study the most important script of all when it comes to getting government approval in the current administration; they forgot to recite the Trump lines. 

The example has been set over the past 12 months by peers such as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg. The latter, with his company facing various federal regulatory threats, began publicly praising the Trump administration on an earnings call last January. 

And Nvidia’s Huang has already seen real dividends from a similar strategy. The chip company CEO has praised Trump repeatedly on earnings calls, in media interviews, and in conference keynote speeches, calling him “America’s unique advantage” in AI. Since then, the U.S. ban on selling Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to China has been rescinded. The praise may have been coincidental to the outcome, but it certainly didn’t hurt.

In contrast, the president went unmentioned on Tuesday’s call. How significant Netflix’s omission of a Trump call-out turns out to be remains to be seen; maybe it won’t matter at all. But it’s worth noting that its competitor for Warner Bros., Paramount Skydance, is helmed by David Ellison, an outspoken Trump supporter. 

It’s a storyline that Netflix should have seen coming, and itmay still send the company back to rewrite.



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Americans are paying nearly all of the tariff burden as international exports die down, study finds

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After nearly a year of promises tariffs would boost the U.S. economy while other countries footed the bill, a new study shows almost all of the tariff burden is falling on American consumers. 

Americans are paying 96% of the costs of tariffs as prices for goods rise, according to research published Monday by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank. 

In April 2025 when President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, he claimed: “For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike.” But the report suggests tariffs have actually cost Americans more money.

Trump has long used tariffs as leverage in non-trade political disputes. Over the weekend, Trump renewed his trade war in Europe after Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland sent troops for training exercises in Greenland. The countries will be hit with a 10% tariff starting on Feb. 1 that is set to rise to 25% on June 1, if a deal for the U.S. to buy Greenland is not reached. 

On Monday, Trump threatened a 200% tariff on French wine, after French President Emmanuel Macron refused to join Trump’s “Board of Peace” for Gaza, which has a $1 billion buy-in for permanent membership. 

“The claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs is a myth,” wrote Julian Hinz, research director at the Kiel Institute and an author of the study. “The data show the opposite: Americans are footing the bill.” 

The research shows export prices stayed the same, but the volume has collapsed. After imposing a 50% tariff on India in August, exports to the U.S. dropped 18% to 24%, compared to the European Union, Canada, and Australia. Exporters are redirecting sales to other markets, so they don’t need to cut sales or prices, according to the study.

“There is no such thing as foreigners transferring wealth to the U.S. in the form of tariffs,” Hinz told The Wall Street Journal

For the study, Hinz and his team analyzed more than 25 million shipment records between January 2024 through November 2025 that were worth nearly $4 trillion.They found exporters absorbed just 4% of the tariff burden and American importers are largely passing on the costs to consumers. 

Tariffs have increased customs revenue by $200 billion, but nearly all of that comes from American consumers. The study’s authors likened this to a consumption tax as wealth transfers from consumers and businesses to the U.S. Treasury.   

Trump has also repeatedly claimed tariffs would boost American manufacturing, butthe economy has shown declines in manufacturing jobs every month since April 2025, losing 60,000 manufacturing jobs between Liberation Day and November. 

The Supreme Court was expected to rule as soon as today on whether Trump’s use of emergency powers to levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was legal. The court initially announced they planned to rule last week and gave no explanation for the delay. 

Although justices appeared skeptical of the administration’s authority during oral arguments in November, economists predict the Trump administration will find alternative ways to keep the tariffs.



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