Who will run to succeed Vern Buchanan in Congress?

Following news that U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan will not seek re-election, the race for his successor is on. So who will represent Florida’s 16th Congressional District starting next Congress?

Plenty of Republicans have long considered running for the seat in the event of Buchanan’s retirement, including former state Rep. Mike Beltran, developer Carlos Beruff, New College of Florida President Richard Corcoran, State College of Florida President Tommy Gregory, former Senate President Bill Galvano, Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Joe Gruters, state Reps. Fiona McFarland and Mike Owen, Manatee County Commissioner Mike Rahn and state Rep. Will Robinson.

Of course, several Republicans have challenged Buchanan in Republican Primaries in the past, and could jump into the race again. Names already circulating in the area include former Sarasota City Commission activist Martin Hyde, former New College Trustee Eddie Speir and former Manatee Elections Supervisor James Satcher.

CD 16, as least as it is drawn right now, covers all of Manatee County and portions of south Hillsborough County. Since federal law only requires U.S. Representatives to live in the same state as a district, the seat will likely garner attention through Tampa Bay and the greater Sarasota area.

While Buchanan initially won election to Congress by a razor-thin margin, the seat has since become a reliable Republican hold, with Buchanan last winning re-election with 59.5% of the vote over Democrat Jan Schneider.

The Bradenton-centered district has notably been represented in the past by Gruters, who long has expressed interest in the seat. He currently represents part of south Manatee County in the Florida Senate now. He rose to his current perch in the party because prior RNC Chair Michael Whatley had to resign to seek federal office in North Carolina. Gruters said he was not expecting the Buchanan news and referred questions about the race to his political team.

Consultants in the region still expect him to look seriously at the race. The same goes for McFarland, a Sarasota Republican first elected to the Florida House in 2020. Notably, she’s the daughter of K.T. McFarland, former Deputy National Security Advisor to President Donald Trump, and could bring serious fundraising connections into a federal race.

Gregory, a former state Representative, has long been considered a regional contender. He represented Manatee County during his last term before being tapped to lead a Bradenton-based state college.

Beruff founded Medallion Home and remains one of the biggest power brokers in Manatee County politics. He has run for office before, entering the 2016 U.S. Senate race when then-U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio was running for President. Beruff was the only major Republican to stay in that race even when Rubio ended his presidential campaign and sought re-election. Beruff ultimately won about 18.5% of the Republican vote statewide in the Primary, including roughly 23,000 votes in the Manatee-Hillsborough area.

Rahn won his seat on the Manatee County Commission in 2022, unseating incumbent Misty Servia in a Republican Primary.

Galvano, a longtime Manatee leader, has looked at the seat, according to consultants, but may not be interested in a run this year. He was the last presiding officer for a chamber of the Florida Legislature to hail from Manatee County, though sitting Sen. Jim Boyd is expected to take the gavel later this year. Boyd, though, has historically dismissed speculation that he would run for Congress.

Robinson, who previously ran for Florida House Speaker, has been a close ally of Boyd with higher ambitions. He also recently made headlines for largely swatting down a proposal for a cruise port at the mouth of Tampa Bay.

Beltran previously represented south Hillsborough County and north Manatee County during his last term in the Florida Legislature. He discussed the potential of a Freedom Caucus within the Legislature, where he bucked leadership on conservative priorities like open carry and redistricting. He confirmed to Florida Politics that he is considering a run.

Owen, an Apollo Beach Republican and former Hillsborough County Commissioner, succeeded Beltran in the House, and is also rumored as a potential candidate in the race.

Corcoran, a former Florida House Speaker, is a relatively new transplant to the Sarasota-Manatee area but is a close ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis. The former Florida Education Commissioner and gubernatorial candidate was tapped to lead New College after DeSantis appointed a slate on conservative Trustees.

Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who previously represented much of Hillsborough County in the Florida Senate, shot down speculation he would drop a bid for Governor to run. Asked about rumors, he said simply, “No.”

On the Democratic side, three candidates were already filed against Buchanan this cycle. That includes Jan Schneider, a frequent Buchanan opponent who lost to him in 2024. Former broadcast journalist Glenn Pearson and Army veteran Jonathan Harris also both are seeking the Democratic nomination.

There has been speculation online that former state Rep. Adam Hattersley, a Riverview Democrat who previously ran for Chief Financial Officer, may also jump into the race.

Independent Mark Davis is also running for the seat.

But the prospect of an open seat, not to mention the potential redistricting of congressional boundaries before the Midterms, could attract more attention from candidates with no desire to challenge Buchanan.