Which countries have best (or worst) odds of attending World Cup?

World Cup attendance odds: Curacao’s fans most likely to attend but DR Congo have brutally harsh odds at +250,000 and Brazil supporters struggle at +66,600 – with English fans at +5,000

Stake, the world’s largest online casino and sports book, has today published new odds-based research revealing the true likelihood of fans from qualified countries – outside the host nations – attending their first game of the 2026 global football tournament, as a result of soaring costs and limited ticket availability pushing the tournament out of reach for millions.

• Curacao are the most likely fanbase to attend World Cup at +250
• Norway and Qatar come in next with odds of +400
• DR Congo fans have the harshest odds of attending – at +250,000
• Brazil and Egypt have it second worst at +66,600
• Odds of English fans being there are +5,000

Coined, The Odds of Actually Being There, the statistical study combines the full cost of attending the game with ticket scarcity to calculate the likelihood of fans from each nation securing a seat in the stadium to view their first match from the tournament. 

For many travelling supporters, the numbers are stretched. Brazilian and Egyptian fans are priced at +66,600, reflecting both population demand and rising costs, while supporters from DR Congo face the longest odds of any nation at +250,000 ahead of their first global football tournament appearance.

The findings paint a sobering picture for the world’s football fans with even the European football powers not being immune. England sits at +5,000, France at +6,600 and Germany at +8,000 as high demand, dynamic ticket pricing and limited allocations reduce access despite higher average incomes.

Conversely, smaller or less centrally located nations offer comparatively shorter odds: Norway (+400), Scotland (+800), Switzerland (+1,200) and – with the lowest odds and also attending their first global football tournament – Curacao (+250) rank among the more likely fanbases to secure a place, driven by lower demand relative to ticket availability, country size and cost.

The odds were calculated through the full cost of attending each nation’s first game, covering return flights, secondary market tickets, accommodation, transfers, visa costs and food. That total is then measured against average monthly salary and combined with the statistical scarcity of available tickets, expressed in the language Stake knows best: betting odds. 

Stake Director, Jarrod Febbraio said: “We undertook this research because we wanted to put a real number on something our customers and communities have been saying for a while: The odds of them actually getting there and attending a match are out of reach and we know it’s all at stake for them. And – with our own twist on things – the odds speak for themselves.

“Football belongs to everyone and right now the odds suggest otherwise. Stake is built on innovation, world-class partnerships and a genuine connection with our global community. That’s why we’re introducing a variety of community initiatives, so we can celebrate the global sport – together,” Jarrod concluded.

Stake is working with KICK, the world’s fastest-growing live streaming platform, to host football Watch Parties across Latin America. Events will take place in Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, Peru and Brazil – all markets where Stake holds licences and passion for the tournament runs deep. The KICK x Stake Watch Parties will be hosted by the biggest KICK streamers in each country, broadcast live to a global audience. Celebratory guests will also be in attendance, as the brands look to connect millions of people together for one of sport’s biggest cultural moments.

This story has been created purely for entertainment purposes. The odds figures are not real wagering markets and cannot be bet on through Stake or any other platform. 

Stake is dedicated to fostering responsible gambling practices to all customers on our platform and within our community. We are committed to ensuring that our customers are educated on our various responsible gambling tools available for use and empower individuals to make informed decisions about their gambling activities.

FULL METHODOLOGY

– Match tickets: Secondary market average price per team. Secondary market used because the official lottery had a success rate of approximately 1 in 100 across 500 million requests.
Tournament average: $1,603 per ticket.

– Return flights: Economy return from each nation’s capital to the nearest international gateway for the match venue. Sourced from online travel operators. April 2026, for June
2026 travel.

– Hotel accommodation (3 nights): Tournament surge rates per host city. Analysis of 96 hotels: average $1,013 per night on opening-match dates, up 328 per cent from three weeks prior
– Stadium transfers (round trip): Confirmed official rates, where announced, incl. estimated rideshare surge.
– Visa and travel authorisation: Visitor visa per US State Department. Incl. US travel ban (full or partial):
– Monthly salary data: Gross average annual wage divided by 12
– Food and drink (3-day total): Stadium concessions per 2026 matchday cost index.

HOW THE ODDS WERE CALCULATED

Two barriers were combined into a single odds figure.
● BARRIER 1 (Affordability): Total trip cost divided by average monthly salary produces a months-of-salary figure.
● BARRIER 2 (Ticket Scarcity): Country population divided by realistic accessible seats per nation. Accessible seats are calculated as 20% of stadium capacity, comprising: the confirmed 8% official ticket allocation plus approximately 12% accessible via the public lottery phases, last-minute sales and official resale market.
● COMBINED SCORE: Barrier 1 multiplied by Barrier 2 produces a compounded difficulty index reflecting both financial and access barriers. Because raw scores span more than three orders of magnitude across 48 nations, log10 of the combined score is applied before converting to odds. This preserves the relative ranking while producing a readable, meaningful odds range. The result is expressed as traditional betting odds, Stake’s native format. The odds represent a compounded difficulty index, not a statistical probability in the mathematical sense.