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What happens next in Venezuela? The regime’s foundation remains in place after capture of Maduro

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President Donald Trump is due to speak later on Saturday, but U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi said Maduro, who is currently on a Navy ship en route to the U.S., will face narco-terrorism charges after an indictment in New York.

“I will really underline here that it is very early. We don’t understand what the plan for a possible transition could be,” Elizabeth Dickinson, senior analyst for the Andes region at the International Crisis Group, told CNN. “But at the moment everything indicates that the base of the regime, everything that held together the Maduro government, continues to be in place.”

In particular, she noted that the defense minister and the interior affairs minister are hardliners and still appear to remain in power at the moment.

Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, considered an enforcer for Maduro, reportedly appeared on state television wearing a bulletproof vest and sounded defiant.

He claimed the government has everything under control, while calling on the military and police to maintain order. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez also called on regime supporters to take to the streets.

According to Dickinson, the key questions in the immediate future are who has control over critical infrastructure what are the security conditions on the ground.

That will provide critical clues as to how the situation will unfold. But for now, Maduro’s top lieutenants are still in charge.

“So removing Maduro did not necessarily change the fundamental equation of control,” Dickinson said.

To be sure, there will be relief among segments of the Venezuelan population as Maduro ruled over an oppressive government, she said.

And while the country has the world’s largest proved oil reserves, years of sanctions and mismanagement have put the economy in free-fall.

“Venezuela is living day-to-day. We’re talking about a situation of resource scarcity and families that are having to eat sometimes only two times a day,” Dickinson added. “And the way that the government has consolidated its power has really been through that redistribution of limited resources, handing out both food but also just basic supplies to its allies, while again repressing any attempts to stand up against it.”

Meanwhile, international reaction to Trump’s removal of Maduro has been mixed. Few governments in Latin America recognized Maduro’s reelection in 2024, but Mexico said the U.S. military action violated international law. However, Trump ally and Argentine President Javier Milei praised the move.

Maduro backers China, Russia and Iran condemned the his arrest, while the European Union’s top diplomat was cautious, pointing out that the EU has said Maduro lacks legitimacy while calling for a peaceful transition.

“Under all circumstances, the principles of international law and the UN Charter must be respected. We call for restraint,” Kaja Kallas posted on X.



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Argentina has repaid its $20 billion credit line from Trump administration, Scott Bessent says

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Argentina has repaid the funds it drew from a $20 billion credit line with the Trump administration, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Friday, in a crucial step for Argentine President Javier Milei to restore confidence in his chronically distressed economy.

In addition to making payments to bondholders, Milei’s radical libertarian administration had “quickly and fully repaid its limited draw,” Bessent said, without specifying the amount.

The Treasury’s latest report on the status of the credit line said that Argentina’s central bank had traded pesos for $2.5 billion through the swap as of the end of October.

The Argentine Central Bank confirmed Bessent’s announcement.

The contentious and largely unprecedented U.S. rescue provided dollar liquidity to the Trump administration’s cash-strapped ideological ally and halted a market rout in Argentina ahead of crucial midterm elections last October.

Milei’s libertarian party won a major victory in the vote, cementing support for his harsh austerity program and quelling investor concerns about the crisis-stricken country’s ability to repay debts. In another sign of the revived optimism around Milei’s reforms, his government issued a dollar bond for the first time in eight years last month, presaging a return to international bond markets.

Thanks to Argentina’s deposit, Bessent said, the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund tapped for the bailout holds no more Argentine pesos.

He praised the payment as a landmark that justified the Treasury’s bailout of Argentina, which raised doubts about the consistency of Trump’s “America First” foreign policy and drew backlash in the U.S. for putting taxpayer funds at risk. Experts have also criticized the opaque and apparently unconditional nature of the loan.

“Stabilizing a strong American ally – and making tens of millions in profit for Americans – is an America First homerun deal,” Bessent wrote. “Setting the course for Latin America, a strong and stable Argentina that helps anchor a prosperous Western Hemisphere is in our clear best interest.”

Luis Caputo, Argentina’s economy minister thanked the Trump administration “for the trust in our economic policy.”

“It is an excellent reality for our country to have been able to build this geopolitical alliance and to know that we have the explicit support of the most important country in the world,” he said.

But Argentina is not out of the woods.

Its foreign exchange reserves still run perilously low. The country is set to come under further strain in the coming months from repayments on previous International Monetary Fund loans and other private debt.



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New study finds that late bloomers are more successful than child prodigies

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You may have a leg up on the child prodigies who made you feel inadequate as a school kid.

Despite outliers like Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, a new analysis based on 19 studies involving 34,000 high achievers across multiple disciplines — including Nobel laureates, top chess players, Olympic champions, and elite musicians — found that individuals who achieved peak performance early in life were not always the same people to reach high success in adulthood. 

“Across the highest adult performance levels, peak performance is negatively correlated with early performance,” the report, which was published in the journal Science, said.

The researchers, led by Arne Güllich of RPTU Kaiserlautern-Landau in Germany, noted that prodigies often specialized in a single discipline, pigeonholing themselves in a particular field early in life. By contrast, late bloomers found success across multiple fields.

The study provides key insights into long-debated scientific inquiries into the origins of elite knowledge. While many parents may assume that helping their kids specialize early in life prepares them for successful careers, the latest research suggests otherwise. Early field-specific development can provide short-term success. However, longer-term success is more common among late bloomers.

“World top-10 youth chess players and later world top-10 adult chess players are nearly 90% different individuals across time,” the researchers wrote, suggesting that those who bloom early in life don’t tend to reach the height of their success at the same time late bloomers hit their stride. It also means that child prodigies and late bloomers develop differently and grow up to be fundamentally different people. 

To be sure, talented children usually find success in adulthood. In fact, a 2023 study found that child prodigies tend to earn more and have more career success than the average person.

Güllich and his team also note that their study is limited by its methodology. The research analyzed data from two types of studies: prospective studies, which scrutinize high-performing children over time, and retrospective studies, which looked back at the childhood development of high-achieving adults. Researchers pointed out that it is impossible to assign children to random careers, and that further research is required to understand how early development relates to success later in life.

Still, the study’s findings challenge the emphasis on early signs of high performance that elite schools, conservatories and youth sport academies often look for when recruiting talent.

In fact, earlier research indicates that such training could be detrimental, inspiring burnout. A 2018 NIH study found that “gifted” children had poor perceptions of their physical health, and that gifted kids were more at risk of poor mental health compared to non-gifted kids.

“All the findings obtained in this study suggest that gifted children are at risk in respect of mental health,” it warned.



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Rumors are swirling about Venezuela holding $60 billion in Bitcoin—but crypto experts are skeptical

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Following the United States’ capture of Nicolás Maduro over the weekend, a report came out claiming that Venezuela had $60 billion stored in Bitcoin—leading to speculation that the U.S. could lay claim to cryptocurrency as well as oil. Despite numerous reports of the huge Venezuelan Bitcoin stash, however, a crypto forensic firm is skeptical of the claims. 

The news of Venezuela’s Bitcoin holding began to bubble up last Saturday, the same day that Maduro was ousted. The digital publication Project Brazen reported that his regime could control $60 billion in the original cryptocurrency—but offered little in the way of proof.

“The article does not mention any addresses as a starting point, making it difficult to verify any of these speculated claims,” said Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, about Project Brazen’s report. 

Barthere is not the first person to express skepticism about the country’s purported crypto treasure trove. Mauricio di Bartolomeo, the Venezuelan co-founder of the financial services company Ledn, told Fortune on Wednesday that the level of the country’s corruption makes the figure hard to believe. He expanded his argument in an opinion piece he wrote for Coindesk

Estimates of Venezuela’s crypto holdings vary wildly. Bitcointreasuries.net estimates that the country has $22 million worth of Bitcoin. That figure would make Venezuela the government entity with the ninth-most money tied up in the original cryptocurrency, just behind North Korea. 

While the exact size of Venezuela’s Bitcoin wealth is unclear, the country has long been a player in crypto. Maduro introduced a token called the Petro in 2018, which was shuttered six years later. Its citizens have also turned to stablecoins as a way to fight their currency’s hyperinflation.

Trump has said that he will “run” Venezuela, and some have speculated that includes seizing the country’s Bitcoin holdings. Andrew Fierman, head of national security intelligence at Chainalysis, said he could not speak to the likelihood of such a seizure. He did, however, explain what gaining control of assets might look like. 

A freezing of assets could occur through centralized services, he says. These services would get a court order for an exchange or an issuer like Tether or Circle who could blacklist an address. The second method is through physical seizure. The U.S. could get control of wallets, devices, and keys through compelled cooperation. 

For now, there is unlikely to be a full and accurate account of Venezuela’s Bitcoin holdings until the political situation in the country becomes more stable.

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