Festive spending in London’s key West End shopping neighbourhood is forecast to rise just 1.3% this year. But while there are still fewer tourists than desired because of the lack of tax-free shopping for them, the increase this time will still be driven by international visitors.

That’s according to the New West End Company that said festive spending across November and December should total £1.7 billion. As mentioned, international sales will remain the primary driver of growth across the festive period, with tourist spending expected to rise 1.9% versus the same period in 2024.

Domestic sales are forecast to see more modest growth of up to 0.9%. This is the flattest predicted year-on-year growth since 2021.

Flight bookings to London across November and December are currently tracking 2.8% higher than 2024, driven in part by an increase in planned visitation by high-spending tourists from countries including the United Arab Emirates (21.7%), Switzerland (14.7%), and Qatar (5.4%). But with international spending over the festive period predicted to be up only by the aforementioned 1.9%, NWEC said it underlines “the need for a policy environment which ensures the capital’s competitiveness as a tourist destination”.

The reasons for the more anaemic domestic spend in the last two months of the year are believed to be the late Autumn Budget and stubborn inflation. That said, as a demographic, “domestic visitors have had the most consistent spend year-to-date, highlighting their importance”.

Throughout the festive season, footfall and spend are expected to track together, surging at weekends across November, before an acceleration of weekday spend from the start of December – on average, 16.8% higher than weekdays in November.

NWEC added that “consumer sentiment in the West End remains positive” and on-street surveys conducted by the body found that visitor ‘satisfaction’ and ‘loyalty’ are both up. And 77% of those interviewed were on a planned visit to the West End, compared to 58% in the same period in 2024.

And it said the area has been bolstered by a raft of new openings and experiences this year, “including the long-awaited opening of IKEA’s city centre destination; new flagships for Space NK, Rolex and Michael Kors; the return of Topshop with a pop-up in Liberty; investments in new retail concepts for the likes of Pandora and Miu Miu; and the opening of the Jamie Oliver Cookery School in John Lewis”.

The group’s CEO Dee Corsi said: “The West End is an iconic destination all year round, but it becomes truly exceptional during the festive season. Our sales forecast reflects its resilience as a flagship destination, backed up by on-street surveys which reveal the depth of loyalty and affection visitors have for the West End. That said, it is clear that consumers are still feeling the pinch and, whilst the West End’s appeal to visitors is enduring, growth is stalling.”