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We’re about to see a $1 trillion ‘super-cycle’ of investment in batteries to power the grid for AI

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A decade ago, large-scale battery storage was considered the mythical Holy Grail to solving renewable energy’s intermittency woes with sunshine and wind. The early pilot projects remained in their infancy—too expensive to rapidly ramp up.

Today, technology advances and dramatic cost decreases combine to set up battery energy storage as the savior for both renewables and the overarching electric grid as power demand soars and Congress rapidly phases out tax credits for wind and solar energy.

The modern electric grid wastes a tremendous amount of power generation when demand isn’t peaking, and battery systems—whose tax credits were largely spared in President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill—are now here to store that excess power and deploy the electricity as needed when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t gusting or natural gas and coal plants are disrupted, enhancing both grid efficiency and stability. Close to half of all battery storage projects are paired with solar or wind energy projects as part of their symbiotic relationship.

“Without batteries it would be mayhem,” said Izzet Bensusan, founder and CEO of the Captona energy transition investment firm. “The utilities are realizing that without batteries they cannot manage the grid.

“If you don’t have batteries, there’s a chance you may not get power in your home,” Bensusan told Fortune, arguing that the world needs more power—much of which can only come online quickly enough from renewables—and batteries are increasingly necessary for stability.

After record growth in 2024, U.S. battery energy storage systems (BESS) could grow from more than 26 gigawatts (GW) of capacity—enough to power 20 million homes—to anywhere from 120 GW to 150 GW by the end of 2030, depending on the range of projections. The Department of Energy estimates that nearly 19 GW will come online just in 2025 after 10.4 GW were added last year—second in the world after China—although tariff uncertainty may cause a temporary slowdown this year. California and Texas easily lead the way in battery deployment with massive grids and ample land, but the rest of the country is beginning to catch up.

Lithium-ion battery costs have plunged 75% in a decade and the next generation of battery chemistries—sodium-ion, lithium-sulfur, lithium iron phosphate (LFP), and others—are more easily sourced in the U.S. and potentially better aligned with the grid than lithium-ion units initially designed for moving electric vehicles. And battery manufacturers now see grid demand overtaking slumping EV needs in the U.S.

“We’re right at the beginning of the supercycle of investment,” said Cameron Dales, cofounder and president of Peak Energy, which is developing battery storage systems from commonly sourced sodium in the U.S. Dales contends that more than $1 trillion will be spent on BESS growth worldwide over the next 10 years. “We need to get going and build out the capacity. You started to see that over the last two years with the massive growth, but I think we’re at the beginning.”

Painful and beautiful

While the new GOP spending law targets wind and solar power as part of a partisan crusade against renewables, cutting tax credits off after 2027—projects must begin construction by July 2026 or be placed in service by the end of 2027—the key tax credits for large-scale batteries stay in place until 2033 after beginning to phase down in 2030.

One catch is more parts must be manufactured in the U.S.—and less from China, a “foreign entity of concern”—but supply chains are evolving for financial and security needs.

“Energy storage is important whether you’re on the blue side or the red side. Everybody agrees this is critical for the country,” Dales told Fortune.

“We don’t outsource F-16 (fighter jet) manufacturing to another country, and so I think it’s a similar dynamic in batteries,” Dales said. “You need to control the building blocks for how you generate and ultimately store electricity.”

Of note, the U.S. Department of Defense is contracting more with domestic battery manufacturing to power military drones.

Peak has a California manufacturing plant for sodium-ion batteries that utilize abundant U.S. materials without any of China’s dominance of critical minerals. The systems require less cooling so they can operate in harsher temperatures.

After a couple of decades during which U.S. power demand has remained relatively stagnant, domestic electricity consumption is expected to spike by 25% from 2023 to 2035 and roughly 60% from 2023 to 2050, according to the International Energy Agency. A big part of that increase comes from the hyperscalers: Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are investing anywhere from $75 billion to $100 billion each into building data centers for 2025 alone.

The combination of much more demand plus the loss of tax credits is expected to result in more spikes in commercial and residential electricity costs. But incentivized battery storage can at least help mitigate costs.

After all, supply chains for gas-fired turbines for power plants are sold out for the next few years, and new nuclear power is almost a decade out. So, renewables and batteries will represent most of the new power generation for the rest of this decade—regardless of cost.

“I’m going build solar at all costs, and I’m going to charge for it, and people are going to have to pay for it,” Bensusan said. “It can come on online in six to nine months. We don’t really have a choice.”

Evolving dynamics

The new dynamic added to the mix is the improved tax credit environment for battery systems relative to wind and solar, which could change how projects are prioritized.

Of late, more battery systems were co-located with solar farms. Now, more developers might build battery systems and pair them with ancillary solar power instead, said Ravi Manghani, senior director of strategic sourcing for Anza Renewables, which develops software platforms for solar and BESS.

“We might be entering a paradigm where energy storage would actually drive solar growth,” Manghani said. “Up until now, solar was driving the energy storage option. That switch may have flipped because of the way the tax credits phase out.”

While wind power pairs well with battery systems, the highs and lows of gusty weather patterns are harder to predict than the sun and the daily rotation of the Earth. That’s why most new solar farms are paired with battery storage.

While most rechargeable battery systems are designed to hold four or six hours of electricity, they can be built to hold 10 hours or more—it’s just costly. But even four hours of electricity deployed when people come home from work and energy usage spikes in the early evening is extremely beneficial for the grid.

“It’s like getting a washer without a dryer. These things really reinforce each other,” said Aurora Solar cofounder and CEO Chris Hopper about the natural pairing of solar and batteries.

Still, while many solar and wind projects will sget built with or without tax credits, at least 20% fewer will become reality than anticipated, according to projections. Those losses could still impact battery deployment.

And, while costs continue to fall and domestic manufacturing for batteries ramps up, much more progress is still needed—and faster.

Silicon Valley’s Lyten is betting on building BESS using lithium-sulfur batteries with materials from the U.S. and Europe—negating any needs for nickel, manganese, cobalt, and graphite, which are all critical minerals dominated by China.

“To really get to that next jump that we call mass-market energy storage where you can deploy these very economically everywhere around the world, you need another step change down in battery costs,” said Keith Norman, Lyten’s chief sustainability officer. “Our bet on lithium sulfur is that, in the long term, the lowest cost materials are going to win.”

Already focusing on battery-cell manufacturing in California and a planned lithium-sulfur “gigafactory” in Nevada, in July, Lyten just acquired Europe’s largest BESS manufacturing operation in Poland from Northvolt. Lyten also aims to add more BESS manufacturing in the U.S., Norman said.

“We do believe renewables are going to keep going forward, and almost all of that is going to be paired with batteries. What we’re seeing is just an insatiable demand for more power,” Norman said.

“In a world where the tax credits are going to be harder to come by you really need to juice the economics as much as possible for renewables. That really leads you to needing energy storage so you can get every electron that asset produces turned into value.”



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Trump wants more health savings accounts. A catch: they can’t pay insurance premiums

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With the tax-free money in a health savings account, a person can pay for eyeglasses or medical exams, as well as a $1,700 baby bassinet or a $300 online parenting workshop.

Those same dollars can’t be used, though, to pay for most baby formulas, toothbrushes — or insurance premiums.

President Donald Trump and some Republicans are pitching the accounts as an alternative to expiring enhanced federal subsidies that have lowered insurance premium payments for most Americans with Affordable Care Act coverage. But legal limits on how HSAs can and can’t be used are prompting doubts that expanding their use would benefit the predominantly low-income people who rely on ACA plans.

The Republican proposals come on the heels of a White House-led change to extend HSA eligibility to more ACA enrollees. One group that would almost certainly benefit: a slew of companies selling expensive wellness items that can be purchased with tax-free dollars from the accounts.

There is also deep skepticism, even among conservatives who support the proposals, that the federal government can pull off such a major policy shift in just a few weeks. The enhanced ACA subsidies expire at the end of the year, and Republicans are still debating among themselves whether to simply extend them.

“The plans have been designed. The premiums have been set. Many people have already enrolled and made their selections,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the president of the American Action Forum, a conservative think tank, warned senators on Nov. 19. “There’s very little that this Congress can do to change the outlook.”

Cassidy’s Plan

With health savings accounts, people who pay high out-of-pocket costs for health insurance are able to set aside money, without paying taxes, for medical expenses.

For decades, Republicans have promoted these accounts as a way for people to save money for major or emergent medical expenses without spending more federal tax dollars on health care.

The latest GOP proposals would build on a change included in Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which makes millions more ACA enrollees eligible for health savings accounts. Starting Jan. 1, those enrolled in Obamacare’s cheapest coverage may open and contribute to HSAs.

Now Republicans are making the case that, in lieu of the pandemic-era enhanced ACA subsidies, patients would be better off being given money to cover some health costs — specifically through deposits to HSAs.

The White House has yet to release a formal proposal, though early reports suggested it could include HSA contributions as well as temporary, more restrictive premium subsidies.

Sen. Bill Cassidy — a Louisiana Republican who chairs the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee and is facing a potentially tough reelection fight next year — has proposed loading HSAs with federal dollars sent directly to some ACA enrollees.

“The American people want something to pass, so let’s find something to pass,” Cassidy said on Dec. 3, pitching his plan for HSAs again. “Let’s give power to the patient, not profit to the insurance company.”

He has promised a deal can be struck in time for 2026 coverage.

Democrats, whose support Republicans will likely need to pass any health care measure, have widely panned the GOP’s ideas. They are calling instead for an extension of the enhanced subsidies to control premium costs for most of the nearly 24 million Americans enrolled in the ACA marketplace, a larger pool than the 7.3 million people the Trump administration estimates soon will be eligible for HSAs.

HSAs “can be a useful tool for very wealthy people,” said Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee. “But I don’t see it as a comprehensive health insurance opportunity.”

Who Can Use HSAs?

The IRS sets restrictions on the use of HSAs, which are typically managed by banks or health insurance companies. For starters, on the ACA marketplace, they are available only to those with the highest-deductible health insurance plans — the bronze and catastrophic plans.

There are limits on how much can be deposited into an account each year. In 2026 it will be $4,400 for a single person and $8,750 for a family.

Flexible spending accounts, or FSAs — which are typically offered through employer coverage — work similarly but have lower savings limits and cannot be rolled over from year to year.

The law that established HSAs prohibits the accounts from being used to pay insurance premiums, meaning that without an overhaul, the GOP’s proposals are unlikely to alleviate the problem at hand: skyrocketing premium payments. Obamacare enrollees who receive subsidies are projected to pay 114% more out-of-pocket for their premiums next year on average, absent congressional action.

Even with the promise of the government depositing cash into an HSA, people may still opt to go without coverage next year once they see those premium costs, said Tom Buchmueller, an economics professor at the University of Michigan who worked in the Biden administration.

“For people who stay in the marketplace, they’re going to be paying a lot more money every month,” he said. “It doesn’t help them pay that monthly premium.”

Others, Buchmueller noted, might be pushed into skimpier insurance coverage. Obamacare bronze plans come with the highest out-of-pocket costs.

An HHS Official’s Interest

Health savings accounts can be used to pay for many routine medical supplies and services, such as medical and dental exams, as well as emergency room visits. In recent years, the government has expanded the list of applicable purchases to include over-the-counter products such as Tylenol and tampons.

Purchases for “general health” are not permissible, such as fees for dance or swim lessons. Food, gym memberships, or supplements are not allowed unless prescribed by a doctor for a medical condition or need.

Americans are investing more into these accounts as their insurance deductibles rise, according to Morningstar. The investment research firm found that assets in HSAs grew from $5 billion 20 years ago to $146 billion last year. President George W. Bush signed the law establishing health savings accounts in 2003, with the White House promising at the time that they would “help more American families get the health care they need at a price they can afford.”

Since then, the accounts have become most common for wealthier, white Americans who are healthy and have employer-sponsored health insurance, according to a report released by the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office in September.

Now, even more money is expected to flow into these accounts, because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Companies are taking notice of the growing market for HSA-approved products, with major retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target developing online storefronts dedicated to devices, medications, and supplies eligible to be purchased with money in the accounts.

Startups have popped up in recent years dedicated to helping people get quick approval from medical providers for various — and sometimes expensive — items, memberships, or fitness or health services.

Truemed — a company co-founded in 2022 by Calley Means, a close ally of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — has emerged as one of the biggest players in this niche space.

A $9,000 red cedar ice bath and a $2,000 hemlock sauna, for example, are available for purchase with HSA funds through Truemed. So, too, is the $1,700 bassinet, designed to automatically respond to the cries of a newborn by gently rocking the baby back to sleep.

Truemed’s executives say its most popular products are its smaller-dollar fitness offerings, which include kettlebells, supplements, treadmills, and gym memberships.

“What we’ve seen at Truemed is that, when given the choice, Americans choose to invest their health care dollars in these kinds of proven lifestyle interventions,” Truemed CEO Justin Mares told KFF Health News.

Means joined the Department of Health and Human Services in November after a stint earlier this year at the White House, where he worked when Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law in July. Truemed’s general counsel, Joe Vladeck, said Means left the company in August.

Asked about Means’ potential to benefit from the law’s expansion of HSAs, HHS spokeswoman Emily Hilliard said in a statement that “Calley Means will not personally benefit financially from this proposal as he will be divesting from his company since he has been hired at HHS as a senior advisor supporting food and nutrition policy.”

Truemed is privately held, not publicly traded, and details of how Means will go about divesting have not been disclosed.

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF — the independent source for health policy research, polling, and journalism.



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Netflix lines up $59 billion of debt for Warner Bros. deal

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Netflix Inc. has lined up $59 billion of financing from Wall Street banks to help support its planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., which would make it one of the largest ever loans of its kind.

Wells Fargo & Co., BNP Paribas SA and HSBC Plc are providing the unsecured bridge loan, according to a statement Friday, a type of financing that is typically replaced with more permanent debt such as corporate bonds.

Under the deal announced Friday, Warner Bros. shareholders will receive $27.75 a share in cash and stock in Netflix. The total equity value of the deal is $72 billion, while the enterprise value of the deal is about $82.7 billion.

Bridge loans are a crucial step for banks in building relationships with companies to win higher-paying mandates down the road. 

A loan of $59 billion would rank among the biggest of its type, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA obtained $75 billion of loans to back its acquisition of SABMiller Plc in 2015, the largest ever bridge financing, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.



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Stocks: Facing a vast wave of incoming liquidity, the S&P 500 prepares to surf to a new record high

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The S&P 500 index ticked up 0.3% yesterday, its eighth straight upward trading session. It is now less than half a percentage point away from its record high, and futures were pointing marginally up again this morning. Nasdaq 100 futures were even more optimistic, up 0.39% before the open in New York. The VIX “fear” index (which measures volatility) has sunk 12.6% this month, indicating that investors seem to have settled in for a calm, quiet, risk-on holiday season.

They have reason to be happy. Washington is preparing a wave of incoming liquidity that is likely to generate fresh demand for equities.

For instance, the CME FedWatch index shows an 87% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver an interest rate cut next week, delivering a new round of cheaper money. Further cuts are expected in 2026.

Furthermore, Wall Street largely expects President Trump to announce that Kevin Hassett will replace Fed chairman Jerome Powell in May—and Hassett is widely regarded as a dove who will lean in favor of further rate cuts.

Elsewhere, the Fed has begun a series of “reserve management purchases,” a program in which the central bank will buy short-term T-bills—a move that will add more liquidity to markets generally.

Banks, brokers and trading platforms are also lining up to handle ‘Trump Accounts,’ into which the U.S. government will deposit $1,000 for every child. The trust fund can be invested in low-cost stock index trackers—a new source of investment demand coming online in the back half of 2026.

So it’s no surprise that nine major investment banks polled by the Financial Times expect stocks to rise in 2026; the average of their estimates is by 10%.

The Congressional Budget Office also estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add 0.9% to U.S. GDP next year largely because it allows companies to immediately deduct capital expenditures from their taxes—spurring a huge round of corporate spending. 

With all that fresh money on the horizon, it’s clear why markets have shrugged off their worries about AI and Bitcoin. The only shock will be if the S&P fails to hit a new all-time high by the end of the year.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

  • S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% this morning. The last session closed up 0.3%. 
  • STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.3% in early trading. 
  • The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.14% in early trading. 
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.33%. 
  • China’s CSI 300 was up 0.34%. 
  • The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.19%. 
  • India’s NIFTY 50 is up 0.18%. 
  • Bitcoin was flat at $93K.



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