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We still aren’t sure what’s going on with tariffs and inflation — or what will happen next

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Months after President Donald Trump launched his trade war, economic data continue to give mixed signals on how much tariffs are affecting prices in the U.S.

While the consumer price index has ticked higher, it has also consistently come in below forecasts, though the latest reading on producer prices surprised to the upside.

Certain sectors heavily exposed to tariffs have seen spikes, but July data showed less upward price pressure on some goods prices and more pressure on some services.

“Despite this firmness, the tariff pass-through effect on consumer prices arguably has been less bad than expected so far,” JPMorgan economists led by Michael Feroli said in a note on Friday.

According to the bank, one potential explanation for the muted inflation numbers is that firms are eating the tariff cost at the expense of their profit margins, which are currently wide by historical standards and can accommodate the added costs without harming capital or operating budgets.

Other explanations include the delayed effects of duties on prices as companies draw down pre-tariff inventories, the seasonality of prices as inflation during the summer tends to be softer than in the winter, and tariff costs being passed though more via services rather than goods, JPMorgan added.

Yet another explanation could be that the tariff rates importers are actually paying are far below the headline numbers. A recent Barclays report found that the weighted-average levy in May was just 9% versus the bank’s estimate for 12%.

That’s because demand shifted away from countries with higher tariffs while more than half of U.S. imports that month were duty-free. Despite higher rates on Canada, for example, they don’t apply to goods covered under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.

“The real surprise in the U.S. economy’s resilience lies not in its reaction to tariffs but that the rise in the effective tariff rate has been more modest than commonly thought,” the report said.

To be sure, Barclays said the weighted-average rate has edged up to 10% today and predicted it will eventually settle at around 15%, as more products like pharmaceuticals are expected to get hit with levies and as loopholes close.

Businesses vs. consumers

Citi Research still doesn’t see much evidence of broad-based price pressure from tariffs and attributed the recent uptick in services to one-time anomalies, such as the 5.8% jump in portfolio management fees due to the rally in asset prices.

Citi also doesn’t expect consumers to get hit with big price hikes in the future, even as more levies are expected to roll out.

“Softer demand means firms will have difficulty passing tariff costs on to consumers,” chief US economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note. “While some firms might still attempt to slowly increase prices in coming months, the experience so far suggests these increases will be modest in size. This should reduce concerns about upside risk to inflation and increase concerns that decreased profit margins will cause firms to pullback on hiring.”

By contrast, Goldman Sachs predicted consumers will pay most of the tariff costs. As of June, they had absorbed 22%, but that figure should jump to 67% by October if the pattern seen in early rounds of Trump’s trade actions continues.

For businesses, the burden will shrink from 64% down to 8%, while foreign suppliers will see an uptick from 14% to 25% of the tariff impact.

Unraveling the mystery over what tariffs are doing—or not doing—to inflation has major implications for the Federal Reserve, which is trying to balance both sides of its dual mandate.

Tariffs have kept inflation stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, causing policymakers to hold off on rate cuts. But weakness in jobs data have raised alarms on employment, fueling demands for easing.

“The evidence so far is that almost all of the costs of tariffs are being born by domestic firms,” Citi’s Hollenhorst wrote. “The lack of pass-through should reduce lingering Fed official inflation concerns and allow for a series of rate cuts beginning in September. If anything markets are underpricing the potential for faster and/or deeper cuts.”

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Baby boomers have ‘gobbled up’ the wealth share, leaving Gen Z to wait for Great Wealth Transfer

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Older Americans may be trading in hustling for retirement, but that hasn’t stopped them from getting richer.

Baby boomers now hold a record high of the United States’ wealth, Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok noted in a Sunday blog post, citing Federal Reserve data. Compared to 1989, when those over 70 years old held 19% of the wealth in the household sector, older Americans now own 31% of the wealth.

That chunk of change is an outsized share compared to other generations. Baby boomers, who make up about 20% of the U.S. population, hold more than $85 trillion in assets, according to Fed data. By comparison, millennials, who make up about the same percentage of Americans, hold just about $18 trillion, roughly one-fifth that of baby boomers. 

Older Americans’ financial success is in especially stark comparison to that of Gen Z, a generation with deep skepticism about the economic future, who feel shut out from entry-level jobs amid the rise of AI, with many sinking into credit card debt as they struggle to repay student loans. As of last year, the young generation had only $6 trillion in wealth, despite making up the same percentage of the population as their baby boomer and millennial counterparts.

“The baby [boomer] generation has really gobbled up a huge share of household wealth, so it’s left a lot less for other age cohorts,” Edward Wolff, professor of economics at New York University, told Fortune.

Baby boomers’ good timing

America’s septuagenarians were raised by parents who came of age during the Great Depression and learned the hard way the lessons of frugality and the importance of saving money. But the baby boomer generation owes a great deal of their financial security to the stars aligning during their formative years.

In the 1970s when many baby boomers entered the housing market, inflation surged, making buying a home an appealing investment. As home values soared in the following decades, so, too, did the generation’s equity. The older generation has also been boosted by stock ownership, with baby boomers holding 54% of stocks worth more than $25 trillion, according to an early 2025 analysis of Fed data by The Motley Fool. Millennials owned about 8% of stocks worth $3.9 trillion.

But Gen Z, who may be following baby boomers’ lead in stock market investments, have not shared the same good fortune in the housing market. Housing supply has been low since the 2008 recession, exacerbated by sky-high mortgage rates, which disincentivized home sales and contributed to exorbitant home prices.

As a result, 2025 saw a 21% drop in the share of first-time homebuyers, and the age of those buyers reached a record high of 40 years, according to November data from the National Association of Realtors, leaving Gen Z to wait a little longer for the keys to their first homes. A March Redfin report found today, just 33% of 27-year-olds own their homes compared to 40% of baby boomers who owned their homes when they were the same age.

“They weren’t able to enjoy the big appreciation of house prices to the same extent as baby boomers,” Wolff said.

Gen Z’s silver lining

Gen Z may be facing generation-defining economic challenges, but there’s hope for them yet. Pew Research Center data from 2024 indicates Gen Z may actually be in better financial shape than young people in past generations: In 2023, Zoomers made a median pay of about $20,000, adjusted for inflation. In 1993, 18-to-24-year-olds made about $15,000. Income growth finally outpacing home price growth may also be a silver lining for prospective home buyers.

But part of the equation of Gen Z’s relatively paltry share of wealth is simply because they haven’t had as much time to acquire it, Michael Walden, professor emeritus of economics at North Carolina State University, told Fortune.

“It makes logical sense that older people will accumulate greater percentages of wealth at any point in time because they’ve had more years to invest and reap the returns of their investments,” Walden said.

Beyond just more time, Gen Z will indirectly benefit from the investments made by their parents and grandparents as they await the Great Wealth Transfer that promises to distribute, by some estimations, $124 trillion in inheritance to the younger generations. Just this year, 91 heirs inherited a record $297.8 billion, according to the UBS Billionaire Ambitions Report, a 36% increase from last year.

Walden said the Great Wealth Transfer is coming, but Gen Z and millennials shouldn’t rely on the death of a loved one to begin their wealth acquisition journey in earnest.

“It’s hard to target when that’s going to come, so I would argue to any young person that I would be talking to, have a plan, be consistent with the plan,” he said.



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Paramount, Netflix spur Wall Street race to win jumbo loan deals

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In the space of less than a week, the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. has unleashed two multi-billion debt deals that rank among the largest in the past decade.

The latest came from Paramount Skydance Corp. as it lined up as much as $54 billion of financing from Wall Street’s biggest firms to help support its $108 billion hostile bid for Warner Bros., just days after the company agreed to a deal with Netflix Inc.

Loans of this size have been few and far between over the past couple of years amid subdued acquisition activity. But that’s all changed recently amid a frenzy to fund data-center build outs in the race for artificial intelligence expansion, as well as a pick up in M&A.

Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc. are providing the debt commitment to Paramount, according to a statement Monday. Each one of the trio has signed up for about $18 billion, or a third, of the total commitment, according to a filing.

Just late last week, Netflix lined up $59 billion of unsecured financing from Wells Fargo & Co., BNP Paribas SA and HSBC Plc in another bridge loan for its own bid for part of Warner Bros. Such bridge loans, a type of facility that’s usually replaced with permanent financing like bonds, are a crucial step for banks in building relationships with companies to win higher-paying mandates down the road.

Paramount’s bid at $30 a share in cash comes after Netflix agreed to buy Warner Bros. for $27.75 in cash and stock in a $72 billion deal. Paramount’s bid is for the entirety of Warner Bros., while Netflix is only interested in the Hollywood studios and streaming business. Paramount — which is backed by Larry Ellison, one of the world’s richest people — said its offer gives shareholders $18 billion more in cash than the Netflix bid would.

The Ellison family and RedBird Capital Partners are backstopping the $40.7 billion equity financing for the Paramount bid. Affinity Partners, the private equity firm founded by President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding Company PJSC and the Qatar Investment Authority are also financing partners. China’s Tencent Holdings Ltd., which had originally been listed as providing a $1 billion commitment, is no longer involved as a financing partner, according to the filing.

Ratings Game

While sizable, the financings for Netflix and Paramount don’t quite match the $75 billion of loans Anheuser-Busch InBev SA obtained to back its acquisition of SABMiller Plc in 2015, which amounted to the largest ever bridge loan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Even so, Wall Street is looking to earn lucrative fees tied to a long-awaited revival in acquisitions. One or a small group of banks typically provide the initial bridge loan, and then bring in other banks to spread the risk once the acquisition is publicly announced. After a time, those loans are replaced with bonds sold to institutional investors.

One key difference with Paramount’s bridge loan is that it will be secured by the company’s assets. Netflix’s bridge is unsecured, meaning it’s not backed by specific collateral. That’s likely due to the different credit ratings each company has. 

Netflix, which is rated investment grade, is expected to replace its bridge loan with up to $25 billion of bonds, plus $20 billion of delayed-draw term loans and a $5 billion revolving credit facility, both of which are typically held by banks. Paramount has lower credit scores of a BB+ rating by S&P Global Ratings, which is one level below investment grade, and BBB- by Fitch Ratings, or on the cusp of junk.

The high-grade market typically has a deeper pool of investors and offers cheaper financing, and would be more easily able to absorb a large financing of this size.



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Parents are sacrificing retirement, taking second jobs, and liquidating investments for college

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Parents make countless sacrifices for their children. And now that college is more expensive than ever, they’re jeopardizing their own financial futures to try to secure their kids’. 

According to a survey of 1,000 parents from Citizens Bank, respondents say they are taking on a second job (19%), borrowing against their 401(k) or liquidating personal funds (30%), pausing investing entirely (26%), and cutting back on major purchases or vacations (66%). And more than 60% of parents reported they expect to delay their retirement in order to pay for their kids’ college education.

The cost of college has ballooned: It’s 40 times higher than it was in 1963, according to the Education Data Initiative. And between 2010 and 2023 alone, tuition costs at four-year public universities jumped more than 36%, Education Data Initiative said, with the average cost of college today nearly $40,000 per year.

That’s led more than 60% of parents to need to go “above and beyond” typical financing options like 529 plans and federal loans, according to the Citizens survey data. 

“Compared to just a few years ago, the pressure has increased due to rising tuition, inflation, and greater uncertainty around future costs,” Tony Durkan, vice president and head of 529 college savings at Fidelity, told Fortune. “Many families are still underprepared, often relying on rough estimates rather than clear savings goals.”

Financial sacrifices for a college education are ‘very risky

Pam Krueger, investment advisor and founder of Wealthramp, said the phenomenon of parents taking on side gigs, pulling money out of retirement, and refinancing their homes to pay for college is incredibly common. 

“It’s coming from a place of love and a desire to protect their kids from the burden of student debt—but it’s also very risky,” Krueger warned. “These choices can set parents back in a way that’s really hard to recover from.”

Part of the problem is the disconnect between college admissions and financial planning, according to Citizens. Survey data showed one in five parents admitted they just focused on getting their child into college without thinking about how to pay for it. And it’s such a touchy and embarrassing topic for parents,  almost 50% of survey-takers said they would rather talk to their children about drugs and alcohol. 

How to prepare to pay for college

While pulling money from retirement, taking on another job, or refinancing your home may feel like the only option to come up with enough funding for college, financial advisors say there are other options. 

Of course, a 529 savings plan can help—but that has a longer runway. These tax-advantaged plans can sometimes allow you to pay for tuition ahead of time, but many people save for many, many years to fund these accounts. 

Still, “the earlier you begin saving, the more time your money has to grow through compounding,” Durkan said. “Even small, regular contributions can add up significantly over time.” Plus, any funds that aren’t used can be transferred to a sibling, cousin, or back to yourself, meaning no wasted money—and it stays in the family, Krueger said.

But if it’s too late in the process—like if your kid is already in high school—an alternate strategy is needed. Krueger said this requires open and honest communication with your child about what you can actually afford. 

“Sit down with your child and talk openly about what’s realistic. Explore schools that are generous with merit aid or have transparent pricing,” Krueger said. “And look at the full cost—not just tuition, but room and board, books, travel. Sometimes the ‘big name’ school isn’t the best financial fit—and that’s okay.”

For parents just starting to plan for college while their children are in high school, Brian Safdari, founder and CEO of College Planning Experts, also suggests moving around investments and assets and as well as applying for grants, scholarships, merit-based aid, and institutional aid starting as early as ninth or 10th grade. Even private colleges with sticker prices of $95,000 or more a year could offer generous aid that make the final cost the same as a public school or even less, he told Fortune.

Still, “the expected cost minus savings minus free money will likely still leave a gap,” Safdari said. “Once we have that number, we can start figuring out how to fund it over four years, while minimizing student debt and leaving enough money to retire.”

A version of this story was published on Fortune.com on June 25, 2025.

More on saving for college:

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