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Wall Street is locked in for a Fed rate cut next week: The only question is how far and how fast Powell will go

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  • Wall Street expects the Fed to cut rates by 0.25% next week, though some are speculating Jerome Powell could deliver a “jumbo” 0.5% move, given how weak recent labor market data has been. Global markets and U.S. S&P 500 futures rose on expectations of cheaper money, but there are still two more rounds of inflation data prior to the Fed’s call.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% this morning as investors, having digested grim data from the U.S. labour market last week, feel that a 0.25% cut in interest rates from The Fed is locked in. The talk now is whether U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will surprise the markets with a “jumbo” 0.5% cut, or opt instead for a series of 0.25% cuts month by month.

The consensus is that the Fed will deliver only a 0.25% cut. But a minority of speculators—just under 10%—in the CME Fed Funds futures market think 0.5% might happen.

“The broader market psychology has shifted. Following Fed Chair Powell’s pivot at Jackson Hole, the question is no longer if the Fed will ease, but how fast,” Convera’s George Vessey said in a note this morning.

Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast three cuts of 0.25% this year; Wedbush’s Seth Basham forecast two.

With expectations of a new round of cheaper money coming down the pipe, global markets were all up this morning.

The reason investors are so sure the cuts are coming is that underneath the weak headline number from the nonfarm payroll jobs report—just 22,000 new jobs—was even weaker data from the private sector. Job growth was negative in sectors most exposed to President Trump’s trade tariffs, according to Torsten Sløk of Apollo Management. The revised jobs number for June was negative.

In the private sector, average job growth was only 29,000 per month June to August, according to a note from Daiwa Capital Markets, down from an average of 100,000 per month in Q1—before the tariffs took hold:

Daiwa’s Lawrence Werther and Brendan Stuart point to another gloomy indicator: The private-sector payroll diffusion index—which surveys 258 private-sector industries—found that more companies are cutting jobs than hiring new workers. The gauge fell to 48 in August—anything below 50 indicates negative hiring.

The Fed will be under pressure to support the full employment side of its dual mandate. There’s a fly in Powell’s ointment, however. We’re going to get a new numbers for the producer price index and the consumer price index this week, and the expectation is that they’ll show inflation continuing to go up. The other half of the Fed mandate is to flght inflation—and that’s why some economists are still saying that a 25% cut isn’t as guaranteed as the equity markets are assuming.

“Although the Fed is now on its media blackout, Wednesday’s PPI and especially Thursday’s CPI will shape pricing ahead of that,” Jim Reid’s team at Deutsche Bank told clients this morning. “So a quarter-point cut is fully priced but without much being priced in for a 50bps move. Our economists believe you’d need to see pretty weak inflation this week to get that.” 

Here’s a snapshot of the markets globally this morning:

  • S&P 500 futures were up 0.25% this morning. The index closed down 0.32% in its last trading session.
  • STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.34% in early trading. 
  • The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.17% in early trading.
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.45%.
  • China’s CSI 300 was up 0.16%. 
  • The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.45%.
  • India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.13% before the end of the session.
  • Bitcoin declined to $111.6K.
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Nestled in the heart of Bangkok’s Chinatown, the Ong Ang Canal served as a vital trade artery in the 18th century. Over time, it became heavily polluted, and even earned a reputation as the city’s dirtiest canal.

Last month, as part of a broader government effort to revitalize the canal, Siam Cement Group (SCG), Thailand’s oldest cement firm, unveiled the country’s first 3D-printed pedestrian bridge across its waters. 

The bridge is part of SCG’s drive to bring new construction materials to Southeast Asia, Surachai Nimlaor, who helms its operations in cement and green solutions, tells Fortune in a Jan. 20 interview. 

The company first started applying 3D printing tech to construction in the early 2020s, including the 2023 construction of the world’s first 3D printed medical center in Saraburi, Thailand. 

“When we use 3D printing, we can shorten construction time and create buildings with unique shapes that conventional builders may not be able to achieve,” says Nimlaor.

The process involves creating a digital model, slicing it for the 3D printer, and then allowing the printer’s robotic arms to set down concrete, layer-by-layer, to form structures. By removing the need for traditional molds or formwork, it enables freeform architecture which includes sculptural curves and undulating walls. SCG’s 3D printed medical center, for instance, has fluid facades that would be difficult to execute with conventional cast concrete.

Courtesy of Siam Cement Group

This technology could be especially valuable for Thailand, where an aging population and a workforce wary of construction jobs is shrinking the sector’s pool of available workers. Nimlaor explains that the industry has been forced to turn to foreign workers from neighboring countries like Cambodia and Myanmar. (According to 2025 data from Cambodia’s Ministry of Labour and Vocational Training, there are over 1.2 million Cambodian workers in Thailand, many of whom are employed in construction.)

Still, 3D printed buildings are often only one or two storeys tall, Nimlaor admits, as taller buildings introduce “material constraints around structural loads and stability.”

Thailand’s first cement firm

SCG was founded in 1913 to build Bangkok’s first cement plant, under the orders of then-King Rama VI. In the century that followed, the company expanded to focus on three core businesses: cement and building materials, chemicals, and packaging.

Today, SCG is Thailand’s largest building materials company, with a 2024 revenue of $14.5 billion. It ranks No. 21 in Fortune’s Southeast Asia 500 list, which sorts the region’s largest companies by revenue. SCG has also expanded to other parts of Southeast Asia, including packaging businesses in Malaysia and a petrochemical plant in Vietnam.

Greening the construction industry

Beyond 3D printing, SCG is also developing low-carbon cement, tackling an industry that accounts for roughly 8% of global carbon emissions, according to the World Economic Forum.

SCG is trying to formulate cement produced using biomass, like wood. This cuts the carbon emissions from the production process by as much as 20% per ton, Nimlaor claims. SCG now exports its low-carbon cement to the U.S. and Australia, where developers now prefer materials that meet ESG standards. 

“ESG has become a very strong driver in the global market,” he explains. “Many companies now have clear carbon-reduction targets and sustainability commitments.” 

SCG hopes to launch the third-generation of its low-carbon cement, which would cut carbon emissions from production by up to 40%, but Nimlaor has hopes that they can eventually cut emissions by up to 90%. 

Looking forward, SCG hopes to continue pushing the boundaries in creating greener construction materials. “Sustainability and business growth must go together,” he concludes.



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Bitcoin is one of the world’s most battle-tested pieces of software. Launched in early 2009, the network has run continuously without being hacked, and today feels more secure than ever. There is, however, a threat on the medium-term horizon that threatens not only Bitcoin but every other type of software that relies on current encryption technology. That threat is quantum computing and, on Wednesday, Coinbase announced it has created a board of outside experts to prepare for its eventual arrival.

The board includes academics from Stanford, Harvard, and the University of California with specialties in fields like computer science, cryptography and fintech. Formally known as the Coinbase Independent Advisory Board on Quantum Computing and Blockchain, it is also composed of experts in blockchain and security from the Ethereum Foundation, the DeFi platform EigenLayer and from Coinbase itself.

In an interview with Fortune, Coinbase Chief Information Security Officer Jeff Lunglhofer explained how the arrival of quantum computing could defeat current encryption mechanisms, including the ones employed to protect the wallets and private keys held by Bitcoin owners.

“In simple terms, modern cryptography relies on hard math problems that would take thousands of years for a modern computer to solve,” he said. “But when we have a million times the horsepower [with quantum computing], that will provide the computation power to solve them.”

While the security threat of quantum computing is real, it is unlikely to be an urgent issue for at least a decade, according to Lunglhofer. His view is consistent with other experts who note that, while companies like Google and IBM have been building quantum computers for years, the current generation of these machines can only operate at a small scale and are not close to being able to crack the algorithms that protect Bitcoin and other networks.

The purpose of the new Advisory Board, says Lunglhofer, is to explore the coming impact of quantum computing in a “non-hype based way.” This will include promoting efforts by the blockchain industry, which are already underway, to update Bitcoin and other networks so that they are resistant to quantum-based attacks.

Currently, the Bitcoin network secures wallets by means of private keys, which are long strings of random numbers and letters that are visible to their owners, but that can only be guessed by means of an impossibly long series of trial-and-error attempts. When the quantum computing era arrives, it will be possible to guess a private key using trial-and-error. In response, Lunglhofer says, blockchain experts anticipate that Bitcoin and other networks will respond by creating larger keys and, at the same time, introducing “noise” to make the location of the key harder to detect in the first place.

All of this will require blockchain networks to introduce and deploy these defensive upgrades, a process that is likely to take years. In the interim, the new Advisory Board will begin publishing research papers and issuing position statements to help the crypto industry prepare for the arrival of quantum computing. The group plans to publish its first paper, which will focus on quantum’s impact on the consensus and transaction layers of blockchain, in the next month or two.

“Quantum computing is both a technological opportunity and a security challenge. By bringing together the foremost experts in the world, Coinbase is ensuring that the blockchain ecosystem is prepared, not just reactive,” said Yehuda Lindell, Head of Cryptography at Coinbase, in a statement.



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The Walmart C-suite reshuffle shows how the retailer sees itself now: as a tech company

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When Walmart last week announced that David Guggina, its U.S. e-commerce chief executive, would become CEO of its nearly $500 billion U.S. division, one thing stood out in his résumé: Unlike his predecessors, Guggina has no experience running stores and has never held a merchandising role, at Walmart or elsewhere. These are two classic job requirements in retail. Incoming Walmart CEO John Furner, for example, who has run U.S. operations since 2019, began his Walmart career as an hourly associate in 1993, and held roles in merchandising, operations, and sourcing.

But there’s another realm of experience that Guggina does have in spades: e-commerce, automation, and supply chain. And by putting him atop the division that generates 69% of company revenue, Walmart is signaling that it now sees itself as a tech company, as well as a retailer. Guggina has spent eight years at Walmart, after nine years at arch-rival Amazon.com. In its announcement, Walmart touted Guggina’s work in building delivery capabilities to serve 95% of U.S. households in under three hours, and said his appointment “positions him to continue to drive our goal of being America’s favorite place to shop.”

In the last decade, after years of fits and starts, Walmart has emerged as a formidable e-commerce player, with U.S. digital sales of almost $100 billion a year—still far behind Amazon, but well ahead of any other U.S. retailer. In its most recent quarter, Walmart’s U.S. e-commerce rose 27%. That has been the result of billions in investments to integrate Walmart’s 4,600 stores with its e-commerce operations. This work has helped ensure faster shipping while also integrating technology more effectively into things like inventory management, supply chain, and in-store customer service. Guggina was instrumental in those achievements, working under Furner, who will become Walmart Inc’s new CEO next week.

“This is a unique moment in retail,” Guggina said in a LinkedIn post about his appointment. “AI is changing how people shop, and customer expectations are higher than ever. But no one is more prepared to usher in the next era of retail.”

The timing of Guggina’s promotion was fitting: It came soon after Walmart moved its shares from the New York Stock Exchange to the Nasdaq exchange, where tech giants such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft list their shares. In December, Walmart said the move underscores its “technology-forward approach.” 

Guggina isn’t the only techy whose star is rising at Walmart. The company also appointed Seth Dallaire chief growth officer for Walmart U.S., charging him with pushing Walmart U.S. further beyond traditional retail into tech-heavy lines of business—including its booming advertising, media, and online marketplace ventures. Dallaire is a veteran of Instacart and Amazon.

Walmart is considered by analysts to be well ahead of other retailers in AI-assisted shopping. In October, it announced a partnership with OpenAI to allow shoppers to browse and buy Walmart products directly inside ChatGPT, using a built-in instant checkout feature. Last week, Walmart and Google announced their own shopping tool. Also last week, Walmart’s executive vice president for AI acceleration, product and design, Daniel Danker, suggested at a conference that the company was developing auto-ordering for the replenishment of staples.

Bolstering Walmart’s tech and AI aura has had the additional benefit of lifting the company’s stock: In the last year, Walmart shares have risen 27%, double the S&P 500’s growth and trouncing Amazon’s 1% increase.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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