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Venezuelan oil revival ‘could cement lower prices’ long term and pressure Russia, analyst says

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President Donald Trump’s plan to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry and ask American companies to revitalize it after capturing President Nicolás Maduro in a raid isn’t likely to have a significant immediate impact on oil prices.

Venezuela’s oil industry is in disrepair after years of neglect and international sanctions, so it could take years and major investments before production can increase dramatically. But some analysts are optimistic that Venezuela could double or triple its current output of about 1.1 million barrels of oil a day to return to historic levels fairly quickly.

“While many are reporting Venezuela’s oil infrastructure was unharmed by U.S. military actions, it has been decaying for many many years and will take time to rebuild,” said Patrick De Haan, who is the lead petroleum analyst at gasoline price tracker GasBuddy.

American oil companies will want a stable regime in the country before they are willing to invest heavily, and the political picture remained uncertain Saturday with Trump saying that the United States is in charge — while the current Venezuelan vice president argued, before Venezuela’s high court ordered her to assume the role of interim president, that Maduro should be restored to power.

“But if it seems like the U.S. is successful in running the country for the next 24 hours, I would say there would be a lot of optimism that U.S. energy companies could come in and revitalize the Venezuelan oil industry fairly quickly,” said Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group.

And if Venezuela can grow into an oil production powerhouse, Flynn said “that could cement lower prices for the longer term” and put more pressure on Russia.

Oil isn’t traded over the weekend, so there wasn’t an immediate impact on prices. But a major shift in prices isn’t expected when the market does reopen. Venezuela is a member of OPEC so its production is already accounted for there. And there is currently a surplus of oil on the global market.

Proven reserves

Venezuela is known to have the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves of approximately 303 billion barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That accounts for roughly 17% of all global oil reserves.

So international oil companies have reason to be interested in Venezuela. Exxon Mobil didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment Saturday. ConocoPhillips spokesperson Dennis Nuss said by email that the company “is monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential implications for global energy supply and stability. It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments.”

Chevron is the only one with significant operations in Venezuela, where it produces about 250,000 barrels a day. Chevron, which first invested in Venezuela in the 1920s, does business in the country through joint ventures with the state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., commonly known as PDVSA.

“Chevron remains focused on the safety and wellbeing of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets. We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations,” Chevron spokesman Bill Turenne said.

But even with those massive reserves, Venezuela has been producing less than 1% of the world’s crude oil supply. Corruption, mismanagement and U.S. economic sanctions saw production steadily decline from the 3.5 million barrels per day pumped in 1999 to today’s levels.

The problem isn’t finding the oil. It’s a question of the political environment and whether companies can count on the government to live up to their contracts. Back in 2007, then President Hugo Chávez nationalized much of the oil production and forced major players like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips out.

“The issue is not just that the infrastructure is in bad shape, but it’s mostly about how do you get foreign companies to start pouring money in before they have a clear perspective on the political stability, the contract situation and the like,” said Francisco Monaldi, who is the director of the Latin American energy program at Rice University.

But the infrastructure does need significant investment.

“The estimate is that in order for Venezuela to increase from one million barrels per day — that is what it produces today — to four million barrels, it will take about a decade and about a hundred billion dollars of investment,” Monaldi said.

Strong demand

Venezuela produces the kind of heavy crude oil that’s needed for diesel fuel, asphalt and other fuels for heavy equipment. Diesel is in short supply around the world because of the sanctions on oil from Venezuela and Russia and because America’s lighter crude oil can’t easily replace it.

Years ago, American refineries on the Gulf Coast were optimized to handle that kind of heavy crude at a time when U.S. oil production was falling and Venezuelan and Mexican crude was plentiful. So refineries would love to have more access to Venezuela’s crude because it would help them operate more efficiently, and it tends to be a little cheaper.

Boosting Venezuelan production could also make it easier to put pressure on Russia because Europe and the rest of the world could get more of the diesel and heavy oil they need from Venezuela and stop buying from Russia.

“There’s been a big benefit for Russia to see Venezuela’s oil industry collapse. And the reason is because they were a competitor on the global stage for that oil market,” Flynn said.

Complicated legal picture

But Matthew Waxman, a Columbia University law professor who was a national security official in the George W. Bush administration, said seizing control of Venezuela’s resources opens up additional legal issues.

“For example, a big issue will be who really owns Venezuela’s oil?” Waxman wrote in an email. “An occupying military power can’t enrich itself by taking another state’s resources, but the Trump administration will probably claim that the Venezuelan government never rightfully held them.”

But Waxman, who served in the State and Defense departments and on the National Security Council under Bush, noted that “we’ve seen the administration talk very dismissively about international law when it comes to Venezuela.”



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The mayor of Minneapolis said Sunday that sending active duty soldiers into Minnesota to help with an immigration crackdown is a ridiculous and unconstitutional idea as he urged protesters to remain peaceful so the president won’t see a need to send in the U.S. military.

Daily protests have been ongoing throughout January since the Department of Homeland Security ramped up immigration enforcement in the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul by bringing in more than 2,000 federal officers.

Three hotels where protesters have said Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers were staying in the area stopped taking reservations Sunday.

In a diverse neighborhood where immigration officers have been seen frequently, U.S. postal workers marched through on Sunday, chanting: “Protect our routes. Get ICE out.”

Soldiers specialized in arctic duty told to be ready

The Pentagon has ordered about 1,500 active-duty soldiers based in Alaska who specialize in operating in arctic conditions to be ready in case of a possible deployment to Minnesota, two defense officials said Sunday.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military plans, said two infantry battalions of the Army’s 11th Airborne Division have been given prepare-to-deploy orders.

One defense official said the troops are standing by to deploy to Minnesota should President Donald Trump invoke the Insurrection Act.

The rarely used 19th century law would allow the president to send military troops into Minnesota, where protesters have been confronting federal immigration agents for weeks. He has since backed off the threat, at least for now.

“It’s ridiculous, but we will not be intimidated by the actions of this federal government,” Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey told CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday. “It is not fair, it’s not just, and it’s completely unconstitutional.”

Thousands of Minneapolis citizens are exercising their First Amendment rights and the protests have been peaceful, Frey said.

“We are not going to take the bait. We will not counter Donald Trump’s chaos with our own brand of chaos here,” Frey said.

Gov. Tim Walz has mobilized the Minnesota National Guard, although no units have been deployed to the streets.

Some hotels close or stop accepting reservations amid protests

At least three hotels in Minneapolis-St. Paul that protesters said housed officers in the immigrant crackdown were not accepting reservations Sunday. Rooms could not be booked online before early February at the Hilton DoubleTree and IHG InterContinental hotels in downtown St. Paul and at the Hilton Canopy hotel in Minneapolis.

Over the phone, an InterContinental hotel front desk employee said it was closing for the safety of the staff, but declined to comment on the specific concerns. The DoubleTree and InterContinental hotels had empty lobbies with signs out front saying they were “temporarily closed for business until further notice.” The Canopy hotel was open, but not accepting reservations.

The Canopy has been the site of noisy protests by anti-ICE demonstrators aimed to prevent agents from sleeping.

“The owner of the independently owned and operated InterContinental St. Paul has decided to temporarily close their hotels to prioritize the safety of guests and team members given ongoing safety concerns in the area,” IHG Hotels & Resorts spokesperson Taylor Solomon said in a statement Sunday. “All guests with existing reservations can contact the hotel team for assistance with alternative accommodations.”

Earlier this month, Hilton and the local operator of the Hampton Inn Lakeville hotel near Minneapolis apologized after the property wouldn’t allow federal immigration agents to stay there. Hampton Inn locations are under the Hilton brand, but the Lakeville hotel is independently operated by Everpeak Hospitality. Everpeak said the cancelation was inconsistent with their policy.

US postal workers march and protest

Peter Noble joined dozens of other U.S. Post Office workers Sunday on their only day off from their mail routes to march against the immigration crackdown. They passed by the place where an immigration officer shot and killed Renee Good, a U.S. citizen and mother of three, during a Jan. 7 confrontation.

“I’ve seen them driving recklessly around the streets while I am on my route, putting lives in danger,” Noble said.

Letter carrier Susan Becker said she came out to march on the coldest day since the crackdown started because it’s important to keep telling the federal government she thinks what it is doing is wrong. She said people on her route have reported ICE breaking into apartment buildings and tackling people in the parking lot of shopping centers.

“These people are by and large citizens and immigrants. But they’re citizens, and they deserve to be here; they’ve earned their place and they are good people,” Becker said.

Republican congressman asks governor to tone down comments

A Republican U.S. House member called for Walz to tone down his comments about fighting the federal government and instead start to help law enforcement.

Many of the officers in Minnesota are neighbors just doing the jobs they were sent to do, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer told WCCO-AM in Minneapolis.

“These are not mean spirited people. But right now, they feel like they’re under attack. They don’t know where the next attack is going to come from and who it is. So people need to keep in mind this starts at the top,” Emmer said.

Across social media, videos have been posted of federal officers spraying protesters with pepper spray, knocking down doors and forcibly taking people into custody. On Friday, a federal judge ruled that immigration officers can’t detain or tear gas peaceful protesters who aren’t obstructing authorities, including when they’re observing the officers during the Minnesota crackdown.

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Contributing were Associated Press writers Konstantin Toropin in Washington; Steve Karnowski in Minneapolis; Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations; Jeffrey Collins in Columbia, South Carolina; and Christopher Weber in Los Angeles.



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Trump is charging world leaders $1 billion each for their countries to permanently join Gaza ‘Board of Peace’

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At least eight more countries say the United States has invited them to join President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, a new body of world leaders meant to oversee next steps in Gaza that shows ambitions for a broader mandate in global affairs. Two of the countries, Hungary and Vietnam, said they have accepted.

A $1 billion contribution secures permanent membership on the Trump-led board instead of a three-year appointment, which has no contribution requirement, according to a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity about the charter, which hasn’t been made public. The official said the money raised would go to rebuilding Gaza.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has accepted an invitation to join the board, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó told state radio Sunday. Orbán is one of Trump’s most ardent supporters in Europe.

Vietnam’s Communist Party chief, To Lam, also has accepted, a foreign ministry statement said.

India has received an invitation, a senior government official with knowledge of the matter said, speaking on condition of anonymity as the information hadn’t been made public by authorities.

Australia has been invited and will talk it through with the U.S. “to properly understand what this means and what’s involved,” Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles told Australian Broadcasting Corp. on Monday.

Jordan, Greece, Cyprus and Pakistan said Sunday they had received invitations. Canada, Turkey, Egypt, Paraguay, Argentina and Albania have already said they were invited. It was not clear how many have been invited in all.

The U.S. is expected to announce its official list of members in the coming days, likely during the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

Those on the board will oversee next steps in Gaza as the ceasefire that took effect on Oct. 10 moves into its challenging second phase. It includes a new Palestinian committee in Gaza, the deployment of an international security force, disarmament of Hamas and reconstruction of the war-battered territory.

In letters sent Friday to world leaders inviting them to be “founding members,” Trump said the Board of Peace would “embark on a bold new approach to resolving global conflict.”

That could become a potential rival to the U.N. Security Council, the most powerful body of the global entity created in the wake of World War II. The 15-seat council has been blocked by U.S. vetoes from taking action to end the war in Gaza, while the U.N.’s clout has been diminished by major funding cuts by the Trump administration and other donors.

Trump’s invitation letters for the Board of Peace noted that the Security Council had endorsed the U.S. 20-point Gaza ceasefire plan, which includes the board’s creation. The letters were posted on social media by some invitees.

The White House last week also announced an executive committee of leaders who will carry out the Board of Peace’s vision, but Israel on Saturday objected that the committee “was not coordinated with Israel and is contrary to its policy,” without details. The statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office was rare criticism of its close ally in Washington.

The executive committee’s members include U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, World Bank President Ajay Banga and Trump’s deputy national security adviser Robert Gabriel, along with an Israeli business owner, billionaire Yakir Gabay.

Members also include representatives of ceasefire monitors Qatar, Egypt and Turkey. Turkey has a strained relationship with Israel but good relations with Hamas and could play an important role in persuading the group to yield power in Gaza and disarm.

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Boak reported from West Palm Beach, Florida. Associated Press writers Justin Spike in Budapest, Hungary, Rajesh Roy in New Delhi and Rod McGuirk in Canberra, Australia, contributed to this report.



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Dollar sinks as Trump’s new tariffs raise fears about U.S. debt and reserve currency status

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The greenback dropped while precious metals rallied Sunday as financial markets started reacting to President Donald Trump’s new tariff threats.

The dollar sank 0.31% against the euro to $1.16 and tumbled 0.32% against the yen to 157.58. Meanwhile, gold rose 1.95% to a fresh record of $4,684.30 per ounce. Silver jumped 5.66% to $93.53, also a new high.

Due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday on Monday, U.S. stock and bond futures were inactive.

On Saturday, Trump said Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland will be hit with a 10% tariff starting on Feb. 1 that will rise to 25% on June 1, until a “Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.”

The announcement came after those countries sent troops to Greenland this past week, ostensibly for training purposes, at the request of Denmark.

Trump has refused to back down from taking over Greenland, even keeping military options on the table, while the administration has also left open the possibility of buying the island.

At the same time, the European Union is weighing options for retaliation, including the bloc’s anti-coercion instrument that has been described as a “trade bazooka” for its scope and severity.

Not only do Trump’s latest tariffs pose an existential threat to the trans-Atlantic alliance, the fallout could threaten the dollar’s dominance and so-called exorbitant privilege.

“The dollar’s reserve-currency status allows us to live beyond our means. Soaring debt, tariffs, and military threats jeopardize that status,” Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, warned on X. “When it’s lost, economic collapse will follow.”

And the EU holds significant leverage over Trump as European countries own $8 trillion of U.S. bonds and equities, almost twice as much as the rest of the world combined, according to George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank.

America’s vulnerability in global financial markets was not lost on Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., who reacted to Schiff’s post.

“As the dollar’s reserve currency status diminishes, so does our ability to tax the world by creating more money,” he wrote. “When reserve status is lost, maintaining current spending levels and servicing the debt will be even more painful for Americans who will bear the full inflation tax.”



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