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Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro may seem desperate. But his loyalty vs punishment strategy is hard to crack

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English phrases once bothered Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro so much that he urged his State of the Union address audience to phase out words like skatepark and fashion.

But as the White House now ponders whether the U.S. military should strike Venezuela, Maduro is embracing English, singing John Lennon’s Imagine, advocating for peace and dancing to a remix of his latest English catchphrase, “No War, Yes Peace.”

While his turnaround is seen as a sign of desperation by supporters of Venezuela’s political opposition, whose leaders have repeatedly told their backers in Washington that the threat of military action would crack Maduro’s inner circle, months of pressure have yet to produce defections or a government transition.

Behind this knack for staying in power is a system that punishes disloyal associates harshly and allows loyal ministers, justices, military leaders and other officials to enrich themselves.

“The Bolivarian Revolution possesses a remarkable ability: the capacity for cohesion in the face of external pressure,” Ronal Rodríguez, a researcher at the Venezuela Observatory in Colombia’s Universidad del Rosario, said referring to the political movement, also known as Chavismo, that Maduro inherited from the late President Hugo Chávez. “When pressure comes from abroad, they manage to unite, defend and protect themselves.”

Underpinning the loyalty-or-punishment principle are corruption networks blessed by Chávez and Maduro that give the loyal permission to get richer. The policy has vexed previous efforts to unseat Maduro and has helped him and his close associates to skirt economic sanctions, obtain U.S. presidential pardons and claim an electoral victory they resoundingly lost.

Rodríguez explained that prison and torture can be part of the punishment, which is usually harsher for accused wrongdoers with military affiliation. The strategy has been crucial for an authoritarian Maduro to keep control of the military, which he lets traffic drugs, oil, wildlife and myriad goods in exchange for coup-proof barracks.

“This has been a very effective tool because Chavismo has always been able to eliminate those actors who at some point try to rise up, and it has been able to expose corrupt practices from all sorts of actors,” Rodríguez said.

Venezuela’s political opposition, led by Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, had banked on the military’s support to dislodge Maduro after credible evidence showed that he lost the 2024 presidential election. But Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and other military leaders stood by Maduro, just like they did in 2019 during a barracks revolt by a cadre of soldiers who swore loyalty to Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader recognized at the time by the first Trump administration as Venezuela’s rightful leader.

Since returning to office, U.S. President Donald Trump has increased the pressure on Maduro and his allies, including by doubling to $50 million the reward for information that leads to his arrest on narcoterrorism charges. A 2020 indictment accused Maduro of leading the Cartel de los Soles, which the U.S. State Department on Monday designated as a foreign terrorist organization.

Maduro denies the accusations.

On Saturday, Trump said that the airspace “above and surrounding” the South American country should be considered as “closed in its entirety.” Maduro’s government responded by accusing Trump of making a ”colonial threat,” rallying supporters behind what it called an assault on national sovereignty.

In early September, the U.S. military began blowing up boats that the Trump administration has accused of transporting drugs in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean, killing more than 80 people.

Many, including Maduro himself, see the U.S. military moves as an effort to end Chavismo’s hold on power. The opposition only added to this perception by reigniting its promise to remove Maduro from office.

Two weeks after the first boat strike, Chavismo’s loyalty was tested directly when Maduro’s pilot rebuffed efforts from the U.S. to join a plot to capture the Venezuelan leader and deliver him into custody to face the charges.

“We Venezuelans are cut from a different cloth,” said Bitner Villegas, a member of the elite presidential honor guard, wrote to a retired U.S. officer trying to recruit him. “The last thing we are is traitors.”

On Tuesday, ruling party supporters marched in Caracas to demonstrate what they described as the “anti-imperialist spirit” of Chavismo. The march ended in a ceremony in which Maduro raised a jeweled sword that belonged to South American independence hero Simón Bolívar and guided attendees, including Cabinet ministers, to swear in God’s name to defend peace and freedom.

Susan Shirk, a research professor at the University of California, San Diego, said authoritarian leaders have a “fetish for unity” and like public displays of loyalty to prevent splits among leadership and social upheaval. She explained that division can lead people to believe that the risk of protesting has lessened.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the designation of Cartel de los Soles provides Trump with additional options for dealing with Maduro. Hegseth hasn’t provided details on those options, but administration officials have signaled that they have trouble seeing a situation in which Maduro is still in power as an acceptable endgame.

David Smilde, a Tulane University professor who has studied Venezuela for more than three decades, said that only people who don’t understand Chavismo would think that a show of force will cause a government change.

“This is exactly the type of thing that unifies them,” Smilde said of the deployment of U.S. military forces. “They also talk about the $50 million reward, but what military officer in their right mind would trust the U.S. government? And more broadly, if the whole premise of the operation is that the Venezuelan armed forces are a drug cartel, what motivation could they possibly have to turn on Maduro and participate in regime change?”

Maduro’s entire presidency has been marked by a political, social and economic crisis that has pushed millions into poverty and driven more than 7.7 million people to migrate. The crisis has also caused support for the ruling party to plummet across the country.

With loyalty keeping his inner circle intact despite mounting U.S. pressure, Maduro has also sought to maintain his diminished base through the long-established practices that include organizing marches in the capital.

Zenaida Quintero, a school porter, has seen the country come undone under Maduro’s watch, with vivid memories of the severe food shortages that Venezuelans experienced in the late 2010s. Her support for Maduro, however, hasn’t wavered, and her commitment comes down to one fact: He was handpicked by Chávez to lead the Bolivarian Revolution.

Quintero, 60, said that Maduro, like Chávez, won’t abandon his supporters.

“I trust him,” Quintero said of Maduro. “We have to remain united. We have to defend ourselves.”

___

Republished with permission of The Associated Press.



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Ron DeSantis says GOP must go on offense ahead of Midterms to bring back ‘complacent’ voters

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Gov. Ron DeSantis is continuing to warn Republicans that next year’s Midterm contests may not go their way if the party doesn’t change course.

He recommends that Republicans make a strong case for what they will do if they somehow retain control of Congress next year, given that “in an off-year Midterm, the party in power’s voters tend to be more complacent.”

But DeSantis, who himself served nearly three terms in Congress before resigning to focus on his campaign for Governor in 2018, says House Republicans haven’t accomplished much, and they need to be proactive in the time that’s left.

“I just think you’ve got to be bold. I think you’ve got to be strong. And I think one of the frustrations with the Congress is, what have they done since August till now? They really haven’t done anything, right?” DeSantis explained on “Fox & Friends.”

“I’d be like, every day, coming out with something new and make the Democrats go on the record, show the contrast.”

The Governor said the economy and immigration are two issues that would resonate with voters.

On immigration, DeSantis believes his party should remind voters that President Donald Trump stopped the “influx” of illegal border crossers given passage when Joe Biden was in power.

After providing contrast to some of his policy wins through the end of 2023 in Florida, DeSantis suggested that the GOP needs to blame the opposition party regarding continued economic struggles.

“Democrats, they caused a lot of this with the inflation and now they’re acting like … they had nothing to do with it,” he said.

DeSantis’ latest comments come after Tuesday’s narrow GOP victory in deep-red Tennessee, in yet another election where a candidate for Congress underperformed President Donald Trump.

Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly 9 points in the Nashville area seat. That’s less than half the margin by which Trump bested Kamala Harris in 2024. This is after U.S. Reps. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis won by smaller margins than expected in Special Elections in Florida earlier this year.

Though partisan maps protect the GOP in many cases, with just a seven-vote advantage over Democrats in Congress there is scant room for error.

Bettors seem to believe the House will flip, with Democratic odds of victory at 78% on Polymarket on Friday morning.



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Ron DeSantis again downplays interest in a second presidential run

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The question won’t go away.

Gov. Ron DeSantis may be out of state, just like he was when he ran for President in 2024, but that doesn’t mean he’s eyeing another run for the White House.

“I’ve got my hands full, man. I’m good,” he told Stuart Varney during an in-studio interview Friday in New York City, responding to a question about his intentions.

DeSantis added that it was “not the first time” he got that question, which persists amid expectations of a crowded field of candidates to succeed President Donald Trump.

“I’m not thinking about anything because I think we have a President now who’s not even been in for a year. We’ve got a lot that we’ve got to accomplish,” the term-limited Governor told Jake Tapper last month when asked about 2028.

It may be for the best that DeSantis isn’t actively running, given some recent polls.

DeSantis, who ran in 2024 before withdrawing after failing to win a single county in the Iowa caucuses, has just 2% support in the latest survey from Emerson College.

Recent polling from the University of New Hampshire says he’ll struggle again in what is historically the first-in-the-nation Primary state. The “Granite State Poll,” his worst showing in any state poll so far, shows the Florida Governor with 3% support overall.

In January 2024, DeSantis had different messaging after leaving the GOP Primary race.

“When I was in Iowa, a lot of these folks that stuck with the President were very supportive of what I’ve done in Florida. They thought I was a good candidate,” DeSantis said. “I even had people say they think that I would even do better as President, but they felt that they owed Trump another shot. And so I think we really made a strong impression.”

But that was then, this is now.



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First place at stake for Jaguars vs. Colts

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How big is Sunday’s game for the Jaguars?

According to The Athletic, the Jaguars have an 83% chance of making the playoffs entering the weekend. That’s a pretty good bet. At 8-4, the Jaguars are currently in the third spot in the AFC.

However, Jacksonville stands a 42% chance of winning the division, slightly better than Sunday’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts (8-4), who sit at 34% to win the AFC South.

With both games against the Colts still on the schedule and matchups with the struggling New York Jets, a trip to Denver to face the surging Broncos, and the season finale at home against the Tennessee Titans, the Jaguars need only to win the games they should win to make the playoffs.

Leaving the Colts games aside for the moment, if the Jaguars simply beat the Jets and Titans, they would have 10 wins. That is almost certainly enough to earn a postseason spot.

So, in a way, Sunday’s game against the Colts isn’t make-or-break. However, if the Jaguars want to win the division and host a playoff game, at least one win over the Colts is essential. Should the Jaguars win Sunday, they would hold a 1-game advantage over the Colts and, for the time being, hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indianapolis.

By one metric, the Jaguars can increase their playoff odds to 95% with a victory on Sunday. Even with a loss, they are a good bet to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. But the chance to start the postseason with a home game is a powerful advantage, one that division winners enjoy.

Health will be a major factor in Sunday’s game. The Jaguars hope to have wide receiver/kick returner Parker Washington and defensive end Travon Walker back in the lineup. Both missed some or all of last week’s game but practiced in a limited basis this week. Starting left tackle Walker Little and safety Andrew Wingard remained in the concussion protocol this week. Starting right guard Patrik Mekari returned from concussion protocol on Wednesday.

The Colts are also dealing with injuries. Cornerback Sauce Gardner did not practice this week, while quarterback Daniel Jones continues to play with a fracture in his leg.

The key matchup could be strength vs. strength. Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing with 1,282 yards, while the Jaguars are the league’s top rush defense, allowing opponents only 82.4 yards per contest. No running back has run for more than 90 yards against the Jaguars this season, and only one, Houston’s Woody Marks, has rushed for more than 70 yards in a game. Taylor averages nearly 107 yards per game this season.

The Jaguars last made the playoffs in 2022 in Doug Pederson’s first season as head coach. Liam Coen is trying to replicate the feat.

Interestingly, the game is one of three in the NFL this weekend with first place on the line.

The Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. Both teams are 6-6, and the winner will lead the AFC North. The Chicago Bears (9-3) also travel to Green Bay to face the Packers (8-3-1), with the winner taking the top spot in the NFC North.



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