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Vanishing immigration is the ‘real story’ for the economy and a bigger supply shock than tariffs, analysts says

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  • Protests over ICE raids in the Los Angeles area this weekend highlight the crackdown on undocumented workers at businesses and the overall impact of immigration, legal or otherwise, on the economy. The collapse in immigration represents a bigger negative supply shock than President Donald Trump’s tariffs do, Deutsche Bank said.

President Donald Trump’s mobilization of California National Guard troops to protect immigration officers from protesters highlights his crackdown on undocumented workers and the economic impact of a sudden drop in labor supply.

Protests in Los Angeles began on Friday, when armed federal agents clad in camouflage uniforms, tactical vests, and helmets arrived in armored vehicles to carry out a raid on a clothing wholesaler. It was the latest in a series of similar high-profile operations at businesses around the country.

Also on Friday, the Labor Department issued its monthly jobs report, which showed the U.S. workforce shrank in May as the number of foreign-born workers saw the biggest back-to-back declines since 2020. That comes after a surge in immigration during the Biden administration helped boost economic activity.

According to a Deutsche Bank analysis of data from U.S. Customs and Border Patrol, the number of encounters at the Southwest border has plunged to 12,000 people per month since Trump’s inauguration from an average of 200,000 during the year-and-a-half period between January 2022 and June 2024.

“While everyone is focused on the impact of tariffs, the real story for the US economy is the collapse in immigration: down more than 90% compared to the run rate of previous years, equivalent to a slowing in labour force growth of more than 2 million people,” George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note on Friday. “This represents a far more sustained negative supply shock for the economy than tariffs.”

While Trump has pointed to weaker payroll growth as reasons for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, his immigration crackdown gives the central bank, which is already wary of the inflationary effect of his tariffs, another reason to wait and see.

That’s because a workforce that is growing more slowly doesn’t need as much hiring to absorb the additional labor supply. In fact, even as average payroll gains have cooled to 124,000 a month this year from 250,000 in 2024, the jobless rate has hovered around 4.2% since last summer.

Wall Street sees a lower breakeven rate for job growth, or the amount of hiring need to keep the unemployment rate steady. By the end of this year, that pace should fall to 90,000 per month from 170,000 now and 210,000 last year, according to Morgan Stanley, which cited deportations and slower immigration.

Deutsche Bank warned the collapse of immigration will have broader implications in financial markets, including on the dollar, which has already been battered by Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign.

“Last year we were writing that the US was benefitting from a goldilocks mix of high employment growth and low wages precisely because of high immigration numbers,” Saravelos said. “If recent immigration trends continue, it must follow that over the course of the year the reverse will happen. As the 2022 energy shock showed, a negative supply shock is not good news for a currency.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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LinkedIn cofounder Reid Hoffman admits what you learn during college may not matter—it’s this skill that can help Gen Z land entry-level jobs

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  • LinkedIn cofounder Reid Hoffman says what young people learn in college isn’t the most important thing in landing a job. Being able to leverage AI tools, tackle new labor market challenges, and leverage connections is more essential for Gen Z seeking employment—and his advice echoes that of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. 

The stable career path of going to college and landing a cushy six-figure office role is being disrupted by AI. Now, LinkedIn cofounder Reid Hoffman admits to rising college graduates that it may not even matter whether you majored in computer science or art history—connections and flexibility are the new hot commodities.  

“What you should take forward from your college degree isn’t necessarily the thing you learned in X-101,” Hoffman said in a recent video on his YouTube channel. “It isn’t specific degrees, specific courses, [or] even necessarily specific skills that are relevant to you.”

Rather, the tech entrepreneur believes that being nimble in today’s job market is a massive asset: “It’s your capacity to say, ‘Hey, here is the new tool set, here’s the new challenge.’ That is actually what the future work’s going to look like. One thing is to not focus on the degree, but to focus on how you learn and to be continually learning,” Hoffman said. 

“The other part of college that’s super important, that you should not forget, is that life is a team sport, not just an individual sport,” he continued. “You can help each other.”

Young job-seekers who effectively navigate the new world of work—by leveraging connections, constantly learning, and mastering AI—will have the upper hand, Hoffman concluded. And unfortunately for those saddled with debt, getting a college degree isn’t the only way to develop these traits.

The one skill that Gen Z should have that’s ‘enormously attractive’

There’s no question that many Gen Zers have already had a rough start in their careers—graduating into a post-COVID way of work, with AI agents being positioned as their new coworkers. Some employers have even branded the generation as lazy and unorganized, but Hoffman thinks Gen Z has one advantage that hiring managers go crazy for.

The LinkedIn cofounder said young people are part of “generation AI”: As digital natives who grew up with advanced technology at their fingertips, they are in the best position to leverage that skill. It may be Gen Z’s ticket to landing a job. 

“Bringing the fact that you have AI in your tool set is one of the things that makes you enormously attractive,” the 57-year-old billionaire said. 

It’s why, despite all the noise around AI threatening to steal entry-level roles, the technology may be Gen Z’s best weapon to find work. In the past month, both OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and LinkedIn chief economic opportunity officer Aneesh Raman have waved the warning flag that AI could rival junior employees. 

Hoffman agreed that AI may make the job search worse for young people—but recommended that Gen Z job searchers use the technology to create their own opportunities. 

“AI is changing the [job] landscape, [and] may make entry-level jobs harder to get, may make employers uncertain about who they’re looking for and employing,” Hoffman continued. “Then you say, ‘Well, okay, how do I use the current circumstances, the disruption, to make this better? How do I use AI to identify what possible new opportunities might be?’”

How Gen Z can climb a career ladder with broken rungs

Gen Z grew up thinking that doing well in college will score you a high-paying role after graduation—but that career trajectory is no longer a promise. Even Dario Amodei, CEO of AI company Anthropic, predicted that AI could eliminate roughly 50% of all entry-level white-collar jobs in the coming years.

Instead of burying their heads in the sand, young people can redirect their strategy to be a hot hiring commodity, leaders say. 

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has been particularly outspoken on the issue; he’s a huge proponent of the idea that being an AI user is a protective quality in job market disruption.

“Every job will be affected, and immediately. It is unquestionable,” Huang said at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference in May. “You’re not going to lose your job to an AI, but you’re going to lose your job to someone who uses AI.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Bitcoin and broader crypto market sink as Israel launches airstrikes against Iran

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Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market tumbled on Friday morning after Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran, marking a major escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. 

Bitcoin is down 2% in the last 24 hours, according to Binance, falling from $107,000 to a low of $103,000 before rebounding slightly. The total market cap of the crypto market is down 3%, with Ethereum and Solana down 7% and Dogecoin down 6%. 

The threat of war between Israel and Iran has triggered investors to flee cryptocurrencies because they are volatile and considered risky assets in times of uncertainty. The conflict between the two countries has also raised concerns that Iran may retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and facilitates the shipment of 20% of global oil shipments, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 

Nic Puckrin, founder of crypto education platform Coin Bureau, said that if that happens, the price of oil will surge and investors will flee risky assets, like crypto, to protect the value of their assets. “Oil will see a massive spike, and risk assets will fall off a cliff,” he says. 

Israel’s strike on Iran targeted the country’s nuclear sites, missile facilities, and aerial defenses, and killed top Iranian officials and nuclear scientists. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes are an attempt to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and what he called an existential threat to Israel in a video statement on Friday. 

“This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat,” he said.

Israel’s strikes came after the International Atomic Energy Agency, an organization within the United Nations that focuses on nuclear technology, said on Thursday that Iran was not complying with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations, according to the New York Times. 

President Donald Trump came out in support of the strikes on Friday, saying in a post on Truth Social that the attacks will get “even more brutal” if Iran does not agree to a deal regarding its nuclear weapons program. “Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left,” the president wrote. 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has promised to retaliate against Israel, writing in a post on X that the nation “should anticipate a harsh punishment.” 

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Deloitte is now offering employees a unique wellness benefit: subsidized Legos

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Workplace wellness—the trend of companies trying to offset job stress with benefits like time off for volunteering, discounted gym memberships, and free therapy—is a buzzy concept that some employers are taking to heart more than others. 

Deloitte is apparently leaning in hard, according to Business Insider, which found that it has updated its list of subsidized items—already including fitness classes and gaming consoles—to include, among other perks, Legos.

The $1,000 subsidy toward “Legos and puzzles” is meant to “empower and support your journey toward thriving mentally, physically, and financially and living your purpose,” say policy documents, according to BI.

Also included in the list of approved items for subsidy, as of June 1, are kitchen appliances like blenders and refrigerators, spa services, personal portable cooling fans, and ergonomic or cooling pillows.

“Most of the responses are things like ‘Lego?!?!? Finally!’ or jokes about how they can now rationalize buying the coveted Millennium Falcon Star Wars Lego set,” one employee told BI, referring to Lego’s most expensive set yet, costing $850 with over 7,500 pieces.

Perhaps Deloitte, one of the world’s Big Four consulting firms along with along with EY, PwC, and KPMG, wants to avoid any misunderstanding among its employees about its desire to support wellness: According to its own 2024 Workplace Well-being report findings, 82% of company executives globally believe their company is advancing human sustainability in general—but only 56% of workers agree.

Further, around 90% of executives believe working for their company has a positive effect on worker well-being, skills development, career advancement, inclusion and belonging, and their sense of purpose and meaning—but only 60% of workers agree.

Deloitte appears determined to go the extra mile—with Legos— to make sure its leaders and workers are in sync. As one X commenter noted: “Building wellness one brick at a time. Honestly, not a bad way to de-stress.”

More on workplace wellness:

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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