UK retail sales volumes unexpectedly rose 0.5% month on month in September, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday. Economist had expected a 0.2% fall. And fashion as well as gold jewellery seemed to have benefitted.

Coming just after inflation hadn’t proved to be as bad as expected it was some extra good news for the under-pressure UK government ahead of the Autumn Budget.

Compared with a year earlier, retail sales volumes were up 1.5%, again, better than the 0.4% economists had forecast.

Retail sales haven’t done too badly in recent months, boosted during the summer by seasonal purchases as the weather stayed hot and as sports events spurred spending.

And even though September was a wetter month, the — admittedly understated — spending spree continued.

Consumers don’t seem to be feeling too bad, it seems. Also on Friday, the long-running GfK consumer confidence survey rose slightly making October’s reading the joint-highest in over a year. 

So what did analysts and industry insiders make of the latest figures?

Kien Tan, Senior Retail Advisor at PwC UK, said: “Retail sales have continued their slowly improving trend over the last three months, even as summer has turned into a rainy Autumn. Retail sales volumes are now at their highest level since summer 2022, albeit still a little lower than pre-pandemic highs. Shoppers still seem to be cautiously spending more. The autumnal weather certainly helped fashion sales, with clothing retailers continuing their run of outperformance and encouraging shoppers to refresh their wardrobes with the newest season trends.”

Nicholas Hyett, Investment Manager at Wealth Club, commented: “A strong result from non-store retailers suggests consumer confidence is returning. But it’s increased demand for gold from online jewellers that is most interesting. On the one hand expensive jewellery is the kind of discretionary purchase consumers tend to make when they’re feeling flush with cash, on the other gold is a safe haven in times of uncertainty. It’s unclear which of those contradictory urges is driving demand.”

Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, added: “The unexpected rise in retail sales in September will be a positive boost for retailers. There are signs that big ticket purchases are back on the cards for some. With the Golden Quarter in full swing, retailers will be launching a variety of products and ensuring good stock availability to entice further consumer spending. While many businesses are cautious about making investment decisions amid a mixed macroeconomic picture, these results will be encouraging. A sustained recovery in consumer confidence will be key for both retailers and consumers to feel emboldened to spend more.” 

And Shopify’s EMEA MD Deann Evans, who’s looking at these figures from a more ‘insider’ viewpoint, said: “Retailers will be pleased to see a rise in sales in September for the fourth consecutive month, likely driven by consumers turning their attention to more autumnal purchases. According to our Shopify data, seasonal celebrations were already firmly on the radar of UK consumers in September, with sales of advent calendars up by 174%, wreaths by 94% and holiday ornaments by 78% compared to the month prior.

“With a consistent few months of growth in UK retail sales, optimism will be high heading into peak shopping season. Indeed, according to our new Holiday Retail Report, 80% of UK businesses are expecting higher sales this holiday shopping season compared to last year. Consumer confidence is also strong, with planned seasonal spend in the UK up from £159 last year to £181 in 2025.

“However, retailers shouldn’t mistake this for unlimited consumer appetite. Almost two-thirds of UK consumers (63%) have set a clear spending cap and 39% will stick to it closely. Retailers that pair sharp pricing with great service, personalised loyalty, and a fast, reliable checkout will win share and loyalty now, and set themselves up for growth into the New Year.”