The so-called Golden Quarter may be well under way but it has got off to “a dull start as inflation haunts shoppers”, the latest BDO High Street Sales Tracker (HSST) showed on Friday.
October’s total like-for-like (LFL) retail sales in discretionary categories — both in-store and online — actually dipped 0.02%, ending four months of positive sales results. However, store sales alone rose by 1.1%, outpacing online for a second month.
That said, the Fashion category stood out. Fashion total LFLs grew 1% this month, which may be a slim rise but was at least better than the overall sales drop. And in-store sales rose 1.5%, while non-store grew 3.5%.
But while that may have been better than the wider discretionary super-category, it lagged the figures of a year ago. In October 2024, Fashion was up as much as 5.5%.
The HSST’s weekly data for the four weeks to 26 October showed an uneven month: sales fell in the first and final weeks but strengthened mid-month, suggesting intermittent consumer confidence. The final week, coinciding with the start of school half-term holidays, “saw declines across in-store and online channels as families feeling the pinch prioritised spending on experiences and travel over retail purchases”.
Sophie Michael, head of Retail and Wholesale at BDO, said: “Our data makes for rather frightening reading for retailers this Halloween. After several months of positive momentum, October has brought a sharp reminder of how fragile consumer confidence remains. As we predicted last month, shoppers are still haunted by high inflation, particularly on food, while uncertainty about their household finances is keeping a firm grip on discretionary spending. Consumers are being highly selective and many are prioritising spending on essentials and experiences rather than non-essential goods.
“The timing of this year’s Autumn Budget, just two days before Black Friday, adds another layer of pressure. Retailers are being forced to make critical investment and promotional decisions without a clear view of the fiscal landscape.
“After a disappointing October, we expect to see earlier and more prolonged discounting to stimulate demand. But that strategy has its risks. Heavy discounting too soon erodes margins and leave businesses with a tough start to the new year. Retailers will need to strike a careful balance, using promotions strategically to keep customers engaged while protecting profitability.”
The Welcome on Board – Mode & International event will be held in Paris on November 20, a day entirely dedicated to assessing new export strategies for fashion brands. More than 250 participants are expected, among them brand founders, CEOs, and senior executives in charge of international expansion and exports, e-commerce and direct retail, as well as international fashion buyers.
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The event is organised jointly by various French industry associations and public bodies, like the Women’s Ready-to-wear Federation, Promas International, the Association of Apparel Producers, the Knitwear and Lingerie Federation, the Fashion and Haute Couture Federation, UFIMH, DEFI, the French Footwear Federation, CCT, Francéclat and Entreprises France. The programme includes conferences and workshops designed to help brands expand their international presence.
There will be sessions on the impact of geopolitics and market transformations on international trade, and on the expectations of international buyers. The line-up of speakers includes representatives of international names like Kirna Zabête (USA), Guffanti (Italy), Hankyu Hanshin (Japan) and Attica (Greece), alongside French experts like Michaël Azoulay, founder and CEO of American Vintage, Caroline Goiffon, managing director of Statement Paris, Louis-Gabriel Nouchi, designer at LGN, Claire Bismuth, COO of Coperni, Lisa Nakam, managing director of Jonak, and Mathieu Grodner, president of Simone Pérèle.
Workshops on customs and logistics, brand security in the digital age, finance and market opportunities will be held in the afternoon. Also under the spotlight, lean growth strategies, how to deploy sustainable international D2C strategies, and how to use AI and data analytics to improve global performance.
Welcome on Board will combine analysis of market data and the experiences of several brands with practical workshops, giving participants the tools to kickstart, consolidate or accelerate their international expansion within a constantly changing environment.
Over the first nine months of the year, the French leather industry recorded a 3% decline in exports to 13.7 billion euros, according to the Economic Observatory of Alliance France Cuir, which cites a drop in orders from Asia and the United States.
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The Observatory’s economic report notes a 7% fall in exports to Asia. This downturn affected China and Hong Kong (-5%), Japan (-8%), Singapore (-27%) and South Korea (-7%). Exports to the United States also contracted by 2%, while European demand strengthened by 0.7%.
By product, exports of raw hides and skins fell by 2%, and those from the tanning and dressing sector by 1%. The decline came to 3% in both the footwear and leather goods markets. However, the leather goods sector was the only one to end the period with growth in cumulative revenue across its companies (+3%).
Imports remained stable over the period, at 10.4 billion euros. The Observatory notes a 7% drop in orders placed in Europe, while supplies from Asia rose by 7%. This situation benefited Vietnam (+13%), Indonesia (+6%), India (+6%), Cambodia (+22%) and, to a lesser extent, China (+3%).
This shift in sourcing from Europe to Asia is pushing down the average prices recorded by customs, with declines of 3% for shoes and 13% for handbags.
By sector, increases in imports were seen in footwear (+2%) and in tanning and dressing (+4%). Imports of raw hides and skins fell by 6%, as did imports of leather goods. In this category, handbag production, all materials combined, is estimated to have fallen by 2.7%.
Walmart CEO Doug McMillon will retire next year after more than a decade at the helm, capping a period when he reshaped the big-box retailer into a technology-driven powerhouse whose shares have consistently outperformed the broader market.
John Furner – Reuters
McMillon, 59, will be replaced by U.S. division chief CEO John Furner, 51, a veteran with three decades at the company, Walmart said.
Walmart’s shares cut earlier losses to trade down about 0.6%. McMillon’s decision to step down came sooner than anticipated, though his tenure at the time of his expected Jan. 31 retirement makes him one of the longest-serving CEOs in company history.
“Given that Mr. McMillon was unequivocally Walmart’s best CEO since the company’s founder in Sam Walton … the announcement will likely cause some anxiety by shareholders, particularly since the change was a bit earlier-than-anticipated,” said Chuck Grom, an analyst with Gordon Haskett.
Walmart said in a statement McMillon’s retirement was a planned transition.
McMillon took over from Mike Duke in February 2014, when the company was playing catch-up to online sales giant Amazon.com that was quickly capturing a lion’s share of the booming consumer demand for e-commerce.
McMillon tapped into the company’s vast store footprint to speed up deliveries, incorporate automation technology at warehouses, and expanded its marketplace and advertising business to boost income.
Since he took the job, Walmart’s value has more than tripled to its current $817 billion as he ramped up e-commerce efforts.
When he took over, the company’s global e-commerce sales had just surpassed $10 billion; in its most recent fiscal year ended in January, that figure had surpassed $120 billion.
“Walmart has performed very well under Doug’s tenure,” said Neil Saunders, Managing Director of Retail at GlobalData.
“It has become a way more influential e-commerce player, has integrated new technologies to improve efficiency, and has pushed into new areas like retail media.”
McMillon will continue as an adviser through Jan. 31, 2027. The Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer’s stock has risen 323% since he took over, outperforming the S&P 500 index.
McMillon, who joined Walmart in 1984 as an hourly associate, has served in leadership roles at all three Walmart divisions: U.S., International and Sam’s Club. He rose through the ranks to become CEO of Walmart in February 2014, replacing Mike Duke.
Furner has followed a similar career trajectory at the country’s largest private employer, joining as an hourly associate, and also heading Sam’s Club and Walmart U.S. in his three decades at the company. “Furner is taking over one of the most desirable seats in corporate America and, in our view, just needs to continue to execute against the game plan they have already put in place,” said Truist Securities analyst Scot Ciccarelli.
He takes the helm as Walmart starts to adopt artificial intelligence tools that are changing how retailers operate and interact with customers.
Furner was “uniquely capable of leading the company through this next AI-driven transformation,” McMillon said in a statement.’
The list of people who have held Walmart’s top job since its 1962 founding is a short one; Furner will be only the sixth person to lead the company, with each of the previous CEOs lasting six years or more.
“Doug McMillon has been a terrific CEO, leading Walmart’s transformation into an even bigger and stronger retail powerhouse fueled by technology,” said Joseph Feldman, an analyst with Telsey Advisory Group.
“John Furner is the logical choice to be the next CEO. He is a lifer at Walmart who started as an hourly associate in 1993, so he is a good cultural fit.”
The move is the latest in a string of leadership changes sweeping through retail as companies tackle tariff pressures, an uncertain economy and choppy consumer spending. Kohl’s, Kroger, and Target have named new CEOs this year.
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