The so-called Golden Quarter may be well under way but it has got off to “a dull start as inflation haunts shoppers”, the latest BDO High Street Sales Tracker (HSST) showed on Friday.

October’s total like-for-like (LFL) retail sales in discretionary categories — both in-store and online — actually dipped 0.02%, ending four months of positive sales results. However, store sales alone rose by 1.1%, outpacing online for a second month.

That said, the Fashion category stood out. Fashion total LFLs grew 1% this month, which may be a slim rise but was at least better than the overall sales drop. And in-store sales rose 1.5%, while non-store grew 3.5%.

But while that may have been better than the wider discretionary super-category, it lagged the figures of a year ago. In October 2024, Fashion was up as much as 5.5%.

The HSST’s weekly data for the four weeks to 26 October showed an uneven month: sales fell in the first and final weeks but strengthened mid-month, suggesting intermittent consumer confidence. The final week, coinciding with the start of school half-term holidays, “saw declines across in-store and online channels as families feeling the pinch prioritised spending on experiences and travel over retail purchases”.

Sophie Michael, head of Retail and Wholesale at BDO, said: “Our data makes for rather frightening reading for retailers this Halloween. After several months of positive momentum, October has brought a sharp reminder of how fragile consumer confidence remains. As we predicted last month, shoppers are still haunted by high inflation, particularly on food, while uncertainty about their household finances is keeping a firm grip on discretionary spending. Consumers are being highly selective and many are prioritising spending on essentials and experiences rather than non-essential goods.

“The timing of this year’s Autumn Budget, just two days before Black Friday, adds another layer of pressure. Retailers are being forced to make critical investment and promotional decisions without a clear view of the fiscal landscape.

“After a disappointing October, we expect to see earlier and more prolonged discounting to stimulate demand. But that strategy has its risks. Heavy discounting too soon erodes margins and leave businesses with a tough start to the new year. Retailers will need to strike a careful balance, using promotions strategically to keep customers engaged while protecting profitability.”