Two new reports on visitor traffic to stores released this week may use slightly different metrics, but the underlying picture for footfall in the UK during October was heading in one direction — down. 

But it’s still not clear whether shoppers are hanging on and waiting for the deals that will come with Black Friday this month or whether they’ve been spooked by talk of a tax-raising Autumn Budget and just don’t want to spend.

MRI Software said that in the four weeks to 1 November, footfall dipped 1.3% year on year (although at least it was up compared to the previous month).

The annual dip was driven by a 2.3% drop in high street activity, but retail parks and shopping centres also witnessed a decline in visits (0.4% and 0.2%, respectively). 

Yet footfall is often patchy at this time of year as consumers save their money for the Black Friday and general festive splurge.

And October footfall would have been worse if not for the impact of the school half-term holidays as visitor traffic rose by 8.6% (week on week) in the final week of the month across all UK retail destinations. 

Overall, MRI Software said stores saw cautious consumer behaviour blended with adverse weather conditions dampening overall footfall.

But that final-week rebound was good news for shopping centres as they rose 11.5%.

MRI also conducted surveys among store managers and said that interestingly, while 61% of retailers didn’t see a notable uplift in Halloween product sales in the lead up to Halloween, 65% reported that consumers had already started their Christmas shopping early in October, suggesting a shift towards cost-conscious, early festive planning as shoppers spread the financial load across more weeks.

Meanwhile, the BRC-Sensormatic report on Friday said total UK footfall decreased by 0.7% in October year on year, which was still better than the 1.8% drop in September. All key destinations declined but by less than the month before with retail parks the most resilient.

It also said footfall in Wales increased by 0.6%, while all the other home nations experienced a decline: Scotland fell by 0.1%, Northern Ireland by 0.2%, and England saw the largest fall at 0.9%.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “While overall footfall fell for the sixth consecutive month, there was some good news on high streets, which saw positive shopper traffic after a disappointing September. With consumer confidence remaining weak ahead of the possibility of a tax-raising Budget, many households have stayed away from shopping centres and retail parks.”

And Andy Sumpter, Retail Consultant EMEA for Sensormatic, said: “Footfall across UK retail destinations fell 0.7% year-on-year in October, softening from September’s 1.8% drop but still marking a decline on last October’s 1.1%. In response, some retailers have brought forward discounting to tempt early spend, hoping to capture demand ahead of Black Friday and the festive peak. The Autumn Statement also looms, with hopes for support to ease cost pressures. Inflation, though cooling, continues to weigh on sentiment, and price-conscious consumers are increasingly shopping around for value. Shoppers appear to be ‘spooked’ by ongoing economic uncertainty, delaying discretionary purchases and focusing on essentials. October’s slight improvement may hint at early seasonal activity, but retailers will be watching closely, hoping to see momentum build in November.”