January footfall to stores is usually unimpressive in the UK, despite the allure of the clearance sales. But there was a surprise on Thursday when tracking specialist MRI Software said it rose year on year for the first time since 2016.
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It will be intriguing to see what other footfall reports for the period say given the slightly different date ranges and other methodologies trackers use.
That January 2016 date might be significant given that it was the year we’d see the Brexit referendum, followed by the pandemic so it’s perhaps not unexpected that visitor traffic to stores has been sluggish in multiple months across the year since then (apart from some odd spikes linked to the rush after lockdowns were eased, with such figures often factored out given their exceptional nature).
So what actually happened last month — or more accurately, what happened in the five weeks from 29 December to 1 February?
Footfall rose 1.4% compared to last year in all UK retail destinations, led by a 1.8% boost in shopping centres (we’ve already heard a raft of malls hailing strong results so that’s not a shock). That was joined by a 1.4% rise in retail parks, and 1.1% in high streets. As mentioned, this is the greatest year on year increase seen (outside of the pandemic era) since January 2016 when footfall rose by 1.2% for the same period.
Admittedly, month on month footfall declined by 20.8% in all UK retail destinations, but that aligns with historical trends observed each January following the festive season.
Weekday footfall in January rose 1.6% year on year in January but weekend footfall declined by 3.5%. This is particularly important as it could be an indicator of many more employees returning to offices throughout the month and so providing the weekday boost not seen for since before Covid disrupted the retail sector.
MRI Software’s Central London Back to Office benchmark revealed a 1.4% uplift in January footfall year on year driven by a 4.4% rise during the early evening period (5pm-8pm). Weekday footfall in office-dense locations within London rose by 4% compared to January 2024.
The firm’s Consumer Pulse report revealed that evening shopping (post 5pm) is the most common time for office workers to visit retail destinations with around 34% choosing to do so.
On days when employees work from the office, 31% of respondents stated they visit high streets during lunch hours, the highest among all destinations, highlighting their proximity and convenience during work breaks.
Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays see the highest overlap in office work and shopping activity, with 58% of respondents attending work weekly on Tuesdays and aligning retail visits for midweek convenience.
The fact that Mondays and Fridays don’t figure strongly here underlines that many people still work from home for one or two days a week.
The weather may have been a factor too. Despite some bad weather across the UK, new figures say that globally January was warmer than expected so perhaps some brave souls ventured out because the usual snow and heavy rain might not have been quite as heavy as in other years.
As for the future, anyone shopping in the next few weeks might be disappointed by higher prices. The Autumn Budget is starting to impact retail strategies as almost 40% of retailers surveyed in MRI Software’s weekly ‘Insights from the Inside’ poll revealed they were planning to increase product prices over the next month.
The Trump administration move to stop low-cost imports entering the U.S. tariff-free is likely to hit fast fashion retailer Shein harder than online dollar-store Temu, thanks to Temu’s wider product range and moves to change its shipping strategy.
Both sites grew exponentially in the U.S. in recent years helped by the so-called de minimis rule, a measure that exempted shipments worth less than $800 from import duties. A June 2023 report estimated the Chinese retailers accounted for more than 30% of all packages shipped to U.S. each day under the rule.
The rule began to come under scrutiny during the Biden administration prompting both firms to start making preparations to rely less on it, but Temu made changes to its model faster, analysts and sellers told Reuters. Temu is owned by PDD Holdings while Shein is aiming to list in London in the first half of the year.
Tech analyst Rui Ma said Temu “rapidly expanded its semi-managed model” as part of its groundwork, an Amazon-like strategy that sees goods shipped in bulk to overseas warehouses instead of directly to customers.
Within months of first bidding to attract sellers keeping inventory in U.S. warehouses last March, about 20% of Temu’s U.S. sales were shipped from local sellers rather than directly from China, according to estimates from e-commerce market research firm Marketplace Pulse.
Two China-based Temu sellers told Reuters that by the end of last year, half the products they sold to the U.S. were sent to warehouses there first.
Temu has also been increasing the proportion of goods it sends by sea. Basile Ricard, operations director at Ceva Logistics Greater China, said an increase in Temu ocean-freighting more goods in bulk – and larger-sized, more valuable goods, such as furniture – was apparent in the “second half” of last year, reducing importing under the de minimis threshold.
In contrast, Shein remains more reliant on air freight to directly ship the thousands of styles of ultra-fast fashion items it pumps out each week, Ricard said, although it has opened centres in states including Illinois and California, as well as a supply chain hub in Seattle.
“I think it’s important to separate Shein from the rest of the e-commerce players because their business is based on speed of supplying new styles and they have to remain very reactive to trends, so speed is a bigger part of their business,” he said. The vast majority of Shein’s products are still made in China, but it has also started to diversify its supply chain, adding suppliers in Brazil and Turkey, for example, a move that might also accelerate in the wake of new tariffs and regulations.
Temu and Shein did not respond to requests for comment.
Trump’s executive order this week plunged the express shipping industry into confusion with the U.S. Postal Service on Wednesday reversing a decision not to accept parcels from China and Hong Kong it had announced just 12 hours before.
Nomura analysts estimate that the volume of de minimis shipments to the U.S. could plummet by 60%, as American shoppers ordering from Shein, Temu and Amazon Haul face higher prices.
About 1.36 billion shipments entered the United States using the de minimis provision in 2024, 36% more than in 2023, according to CBP data.
Ma, however, said that she expected Shein and Temu to be able to adapt quickly, given the agility of China’s e-commerce firms and their supply chains.
“I think there will be real impact, especially in the short term, but it is not catastrophic,” Ma said. “China has the most competitive e-commerce operators and the most advanced supply chain. Short of a total ban or something crazy like that, I think they will be able to figure it out.”
Luxury logistics company Ferrari Group on Thursday set a price range for its initial public offering of between 8 euros and 9 euros per share, giving the company an indicative market capitalisation of up to €822 million ($851.84 million).
Rolex
The offer starts on Thursday and will run to February 12, with the first day of trading on the Amsterdam bourse expected a day later.
The founding family is selling up to 25% of existing shares in the company, with a so-called greenshoe option potentially bringing that up to 28.7%.
The family-owned group, founded in 1959 in Italy and currently headquartered in London, focuses on the handling of luxury goods such as high-end watches, jewellery and diamonds.
UK-based disruptive waste management and recycling business MyGroup has launched a sustainable textiles project in Sri Lanka to reintroduce cotton cultivation and establish a materials recycling hub to help tackle the country’s ocean waste issue.
MyGroup has a 30 year history in recycling – MyGroup- Facebook
The sustainable textile production and manufacturing proof-of-concept will be spearheaded by the business’s ReFactory arm and focus on community building, MyGroup announced in a press release. Extending across the four Sri Lankan provinces of North West, North Central, Uva, and Eastern, the project is designed to reintroduce cotton cultivation in Sri Lanka for the first time since the 1970s.
“As the seeds are planted– both literally and figuratively– on our Sri Lanka project, MyGroup is forging a new path for planet-friendly textiles production that supports skilled artisans, particularly women, working in traditional local labour settings, while preserving the rich cultural heritage of this wonderful country,” said MyGroup’s director Steve Carrie in a press release. “Together with our drive to rid the country’s beaches of waste plastic, we hope to create long-term, positive change in communities and natural ecosystems, while creating products with a story– unlocking new commercial opportunities in markets where authenticity, sustainability and social impact drive consumer choice.”
For the textiles focused portion of the project, MyGroup’s ReFactory has joined forces with global non-profit consultancy firm Fibershed’s Sri Lankan arm. The initiative has also committed to employing and fairly compensating local artisans and workers
“We at Fibershed Sri Lanka warmly welcome international brands to collaborate with us in revitalising the nation’s textile and fashion heritage,” said Fibershed Sri Lanka’s founder Thilina Premjayanth. “Our partnership with MyGroup exemplifies our commitment to a broad spectrum of innovative projects that prioritise climate-beneficial regenerative agriculture, sustainable practices and community empowerment. Together, we aim to create a global benchmark for ethical, eco-friendly production, while supporting local artisans and preserving Sri Lanka’s rich cultural legacy.”
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