There’s optimism in the autumn air for British e-tailers. This winter season, sales are expected to rise 3.7% year-on-year, “leading to a £25.3 billion bumper online Christmas”, according to home delivery specialist Parcelhero.
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And that prediction is “significantly more than the 2.5% [rise] some analysts are predicting”, it noted.
While the UK’s online holiday season sales won’t quite match the USA’s 5% predicted growth year-on-year (according to Adobe figures), Parcelhero’s head of Consumer Research, David Jinks said: “The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recorded that online shopping reached nearly 30% of all UK retail sales in December 2024 and our initial figures indicate that Christmas shipments are already ahead of last year’s volumes.”
He added: “Consumers in both the US and the UK are currently experiencing similar concerns about inflation. If UK shoppers follow the predicted example of their US counterparts in putting aside these fears, at least temporarily, then the early UK online Christmas sales forecasts of an increase of just 2.5% look a little low.
“We believe Britons are likely to shake off the challenges of 2025 with a cheery Christmas, in much the same way as consumers in the US. That’s why [we’re] predicting a similar 3.7% online holiday season growth compared to last year.”
In 2024, Parcelhero said UK shoppers spent £3.63 billion online from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, up 5.2% year-on-year. “We’re expecting a similar… increase this year, leading to a £3.8 billion Black Friday weekend. Overall, we are predicting a £25.3 billion online Christmas in the UK, almost £1 billion higher than last year.”
He also noted that while UK carriers handled an estimated 1.29 billion parcels between October and December 2024, a 10% rise, “a similar increase this year could mean 1.42 billion parcels being delivered by the end of Christmas peak.
Quoting latest Sensormatic Solutions’ figures, he added: “So far, all the omens look good for a healthy online Christmas in the UK, [with its figures showing] 23% of UK consumers having started their Christmas shopping at the beginning of this month, up 2% year-on-year, in a bid to get ahead and find the best deals.”
However, there was also one note of caution: “There remains one potential upset to this year’s UK e-commerce Christmas… and that is the impact of this year’s Autumn Budget.
“So far, the signals are mixed about potential tax rises but any bad news couldn’t come at a worse time for seasonal peak sales. Will shoppers seek to cheer themselves up by splashing out or will they tighten their belts in the wake of gloomy economic news? Black Friday’s spending on 28 November will shed some early light on whether the Budget has dramatically slowed Christmas sales.”
